Asian Sky Quarterly 2021 Q4 - 25th Issue

A LOOK BACK: MARKET DYNAMICS
MARKET FORECAST: WHAT TO EXPECT?
Unfortunately, COVID-19 will be with us for at least the near future, and
unless something else comes along, we believe that the market will
stay strong for at least another year. We also believe that pre-owned
market supply will not be eased in the meantime, at least not until OEM
production increases have reduced new delivery lead times. Therefore,
we believe that market conditions going into 2022 are unsustainable.
This can also be seen in our Market Trends chart shown below. The
market trend began to shift to the seller’s benefit in early 2020, and as
the market consumption continued to speed up, it officially entered
the seller’s market in early 2021 - partly due to a record number of
transactions in December 2020. In 2021 we did not see any signs
of transaction levels slowing down, and the market momentum has
been brought up to a historically high level as we enter 2022. The
momentum is so strong that it has peaked more than at any other time
that we have witnessed. However, we believe that it is not sustainable,
and that we will see a minor shift in the market trend during 2022.
Market Trends (Worldwide)
Signal Line (MACD EMA 91 days)
MACD Line (12 - 6 mth EMA)
TREND CHANGE:
LOWER INWENTORY CONSUMPTION RATE/
FEWER TRANSACTIONS
MOVING TOWARDS SELLER’S MARKET
TREND REVERSAL:
INTO BUYER’S MARKET
MOVING TOWARDS BUYER’S MARKET
TREND REVERSAL:
INTO SELLER’S MARKET
TREND CHANGE:
HIGHER INVENTORAY
CONSUMPTION RATE
Jan
2015
Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Dec
Data Source: AMSTAT & ASG
48 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — FOURTH QUARTER 2021