March 2022

The Business Pilot Barometer
THE ECONOMIC SIDE EFFECTS OF WAR
Neil Cooper-Smith, Senior Analyst at Business Pilot, discusses what sort of effect the rising
energy prices, exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, will have on the supply chain...
Business Pilot Barometer Edition 26: March 2022
It’s too early to say what the impact war
between Russia and Ukraine will have on the
UK economy but it is likely that it will add fuel
to inflationary growth, with prices already rising
at their fastest pace for 30 years.
As one of the world’s largest exporters of oil
and gas, sanctions on Russia are likely to push
wholesale energy prices, already at record highs
still higher.
We have already warned that the raising of the
energy price cap next month will see average
household energy bills top £2,000 a year and
could even hit highs of £2,350 by this time next
year.
That may bring their energy consumption into
sharper focus but with so much uncertainty about
the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict,
rising inflation and a squeeze on incomes, the
question is will homeowners be prepared to
spend?
What we’re seeing on the ground is a definitive
slowdown, less so in month-on-month change
but on previous years.
Sales were down 1% February on January this
year, leads dropped by 10%, while conversions
also fell by 3%.
Although relatively small changes, there is clear
evidence that with Furlough and Stamp Duty
breaks behind them, plus the opening-up of the
economy, some of the heat has gone out of the
market.
Year-on-year sales in February 2022 compared to
2021 fell by 8%. Compared to 2020 – still prelockdown
– sales are down 36%.
This is in line with a general fall in consumer
confidence recorded by GfK consumer confidence
index falling seven points in February to 26 – the
lowest reading since January 2021, which was
one of the worst points of the Covid-19 crisis.
With UK inflation rising, for those for whom
new windows and doors were an aspirational
or discretionary spend, the prospect of tying up
cash in home improvements may now be less
appealing.
Conversely, those with cash, who have perhaps
held off improvements because of long lead times
and inflated prices, may decide that with energy
prices rising, now is a good time to invest.
The point is we don’t know, which is why
good business discipline and effective lead
management is going to be even more important.
The Business Pilot Sales Dashboard is part of our
comprehensive business management platform.
It tracks leads, demos, daily, weekly and monthly
sales, plus closing ratios.
You can literally review where you are against
KPIs, and the status of leads.
It’s there at your fingertips as a day-to-day
management tool.
Having that visibility means you can maximise
conversions which, when the market is tougher
– which we believe it will be – delivers an even
greater return.
The Business Pilot Barometer offers a monthly analysis of the key trends defining window and door
retail, drawing on real industry data collated by the Business Pilot customer relationship management
system (CRM). Business Pilot uses cloud-based technologies to give installers complete visibility of every
element of their operation from leads and conversions to job scheduling, cost of installation, service
calls, and financial reporting.
www.businesspilot.co.uk www.businesspilot.co.uk/barometer
12 T I MARCH 2022
PRACTICAL CONTENT FOR THE GLAZING INSTALLER & HOME IMPROVEMENT SPECIALIST