The Softwood Forest Products Buyer - March/April 2023

Southeast Business Trends
Ontario/Quebec Business Trends
By Matthew Fite
Staff Writer
By Richard Lipman
Guest Writer
Across the Southeast region sources say that their marketplaces
are doing well. Some sources have noted that
their sales are doing better than they were six months ago.
A lumber representative in Georgia said, at the time
of this writing, that the beginning of 2023 was looking to
be very similar to the end of 2022. “Looking into the new
year we are optimistic. 2023 might not be as good as 2022
but that was a historically good year,” he said.
He noted that sales haven’t been as good as they were six months ago but
he noticed this trend towards the end of the fourth quarter of 2022.
When it comes to Softwood his company only handles Southern Yellow
Pine in grades No. 3 and 4 Common. “We handle these in any thickness that you
can imagine from 1-inch boards to 12x12 timbers,” he noted.
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According to an Ontario-based manufacturer “Prices
continue to rise in all species after last week's curtail announcements
from Canfor. The U.S. is the primary driver,
as mills reported strong sales south of the border.” A
Quebec producer told us the U.S. is “desperately searching
for studs, which has allowed mills to build solid order
files. Stud grade 2x4/8 and 2x4/9 increased noticeably
early in the week. In the East, 2x4 No. 2 and Better random widths went up and
2x6 random widths rose as well. However, we're still in the grips of winter and
recent ice and frigid weather from Texas to the Midwest and Northeast disrupted
trucking, which slowed consumption.”
Noted an Ontario wholesaler, “the order files are at the three, six or sooner, depending
on the item. Some stuff is out to near to the end of February or the middle
of February, just depending on the product. The shutdowns definitely have had
an impact, I mean we're a business that's dependent on supply and demand and, if
there is a certain amount of demand
and then the supply all of a sudden
starts to shrink, then the prices have
nowhere to go but up. The mills
have probably pushed the prices as
high as they're going to get for now,
because, late this week, business
started to tail off, like yesterday it
was quiet and today it's definitely
quiet. However, the mills have
got order files and if in two weeks
there's still no more business and
the market looks like it's getting lost
again, I think what will happen is
that there'll just be more announcements
from the mills that they're
going be curtailing production.”
Reported a Quebec manufacturer,
“I think this week it was 2x4 8 foot
studs that led the way. That was the
big mover. So that's encouraging
in the sense that, if you're building
homes, you need studs. And
so, if there's a demand for studs,
it means that there's a demand for
the construction of those homes.”
An Ontario wholesaler told us, “I
think anybody who needs to buy
a home in Canada is probably going
to wait it out a little bit, just
to see that inflation numbers and
the interest rates start to stabilize.
We’ve heard that builders in the
U.S. are starting to adjust the size
of the houses. They’re now building
smaller homes because they've got
to cutback on the size of the homes
so people can afford them. If the
builders can make these adjustments
and find the right spot in the market
for the demand, 2024 should be a
decent year. We should see some
recovery.”
“My feeling is that 2023 is going
to be bumpy,” according to
a Quebec wholesaler. “We could
have a lot of stops and starts to
this market, as supply and demand
try to find a balance. But there is
Continued on page 54
Page 22 Softwood Forest Products Buyer • March/April 2023
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