The EU, the EEU, and the War in Ukraine: Political Risks and Management Options

Hannes Meissner / Johannes Leitner
Table 1: Different Levels of Analysis
Level of Analysis
.
Geopolitical Risk Factors (MIGA 2015)
Macropolitical Risk Factors
(Robock , 1971; Alon & Martin, 1998)
.
Internal (de la Torre et al 1988)
Political stability (Miller 1992)
Systemic Corruption (Meissner 2017)
.
Systemic Favouritism (Meissner 2017)
Institutional Ambiguity (Meissner 2017)
External (de la Torre et al 1988)
Regional, Bilateral
Conflicts and Diplomatic
Ties (Alon & Martin 1998)
Host country‘s attitude
towards international
companies (Kobrin 1980)
Micropolitical Risk Factors
(Robock 1971, Alon & Martin 1998)
.
Source: Own illustration
In contrast, the internal perspective focuses on those factors resulting from the domestic
political constellation. This includes, for example, political stability, which comprises factors
such as insurrections or strikes, but also to what extent a state can exercise its monopoly of
power throughout the state territory, or how regulated regime change takes place in a state
(Miller 1992). The question of the specific political risks of differently structured democracy
constellations is also discussed in this area (Jensen 2008; Jensen et al. 2013).
In fact, however, the different levels of analysis are ideal types. Rather, it is often difficult to draw
a clear distinction. Geopolitical factors may provoke reactions by governments, which vice-versa
influence the diplomatic arena. This shows that geopolitical factors are often intertwined with
the macro level, especially in regard to the external dimension. Geopolitical factors might viceversa
trigger civil unrest and political instability in a given country and thus influence the internal
dimension at the macro level. And finally, some of these factors might have a strong impact
on specific companies and projects, while other companies might not, or to a lesser degree be
affected. In other words, the macro- and the micro-level are in turn interrelated again. Acknowledging
theses interdependencies, the present chapter puts a major focus on geopolitical and
external factors at the macro-level, while also considering political risk factors related to the
internal dimension and/or the micro-level.
10 Wirtschaft und Management · Band 33 · März 2023