The EU, the EEU, and the War in Ukraine: Political Risks and Management Options

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Impressum Medieninhaber, Herausgeber und Verleger: Fachhochschule des BFI Wien Gesellschaft m.b.H. A-1020 Wien, Wohlmutstraße 22, Tel.: +43/1/720 12 86 E-Mail: info@fh-vie.ac.at http://www.fh-vie.ac.at Geschäftsführung: Mag. a Eva Schießl-Foggensteiner Redaktion: Prof. (FH) Dr. Andreas Breinbauer Dr. Hannes Meissner Gabriele Bucher, MSc Martina Morawetz-Wiesinger Lektorat: Mag. Martin Buxbaum, M.A. Mag. a Barbara Ebersberger-Fischerleitner MMag. a Katharina Gröblinger Mag. a Victoria Kohoutek Prof. in (FH) Dr. in Margit Ozvalda Layout und Druck: Claudia Kurz, A-2392 Grub im Wienerwald ISBN: 978-3-902624-69-7 (Printversion) ISBN: 978-3-902624-70-3 (E-Version) Hinweis des Herausgebers: Die in „Wirtschaft und Management“ veröffentlichten Beiträge enthalten die persönlichen Ansichten der Autor:innen und reflektieren nicht notwendigerweise den Standpunkt der Fachhochschule des BFI Wien. Project title: “The EU and the EEU: Between Conflict and Competition, Convergence and Cooperation” (EUCON) Project number: 620085-EPP-1-2020-1-AT-EPPJMO-NETWORK Disclaimer: “The European Commission‘s support for the production of this publication does not constitute an endorsement of the contents, which reflect the views only of the authors, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein.”
Hannes Meissner / Johannes Leitner From Conflict to War in Ukraine. The New Realities of Political Risk Management in the post-Soviet space Abstract This chapter is dedicated to both the political risk constellation in Ukraine prior to February 24 th and to the political risk constellation since the Russian attack. In the former regard, it presents results from a field trip to Kiev in October 2021. In the latter regard, this chapter provides an outlook on the new political risk constellation and risk management strategies given Moscow’s tightening grip on post-Soviet countries. Hannes Meissner UAS BFI Vienna 1 Introduction This chapter is an immediate witness of the dramatic geopolitical changes currently going on against the backdrop of the Russian attack on Ukraine. It is the result of a research project with the initial aim to analyse and evaluate chances and risks for enterprises with regard to Ukraine’s bridging function between the East (Russia and China) and the West (EU/wider Europe). In this context, the research project has been embedded into the Erasmus+/Jean Monnet Networks Project “EUCON”, dealing with EU and EEU/Russia relations that had until recently been characterised not only (although mainly) by conflict and competition, but also by cooperation and potential convergence. Johannes Leitner L&M PRISK The Russian attack on Ukraine has far reaching effects on the world order. Many commentators from academia, media and the political sphere consider February 24th (2022) to be another turning point of global reach after November 9th (1989). However, while the latter date clearly marked the end of the bipolar world order of East-West confrontation, the final consequences of the current events are not fully clear yet. Moreover, the changes have been on the horizon for years. Ultimately, a new world order is currently beginning to emerge. The previous world order dominated by the west, based on norms and international law developed in the aftermath of the Second World War, is currently disintegrating into new blocks. The most likely future scenario is that the world will be divided by competition and conflict between the West and non-liberal authoritarian powers, such as Russia and China. However, in this context, China is more likely to become the dominant power, and not Russia. At the same time, regional powers such as India, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia (etc.) will wisely use their new opportunities, in most cases against the immediate interests of the West. Wirtschaft und Management · Band 33 · März 2023 7
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