The EU, the EEU, and the War in Ukraine: Political Risks and Management Options

Florence Ertel / Julian Plottka
new authoritarianism in Uzbekistan (Schieck 2017). He argues that authoritarian systems can
no longer rely on repression alone but need additional sources of legitimacy. As under current
circumstances the Kazakh president cannot generate additional legitimacy by increasing the
income levels of the most disadvantaged citizens, he increases political participation rights instead.
As these reforms do not mark the beginning of democratic transition in Kazakhstan, they
are highly unlikely to result in additional stability.
Kazakh relations with Russia are a further potential source of instability. The deployment of
CSTO troops in Kazakhstan and Russia’s nationalist rhetoric are fuelling fears among ethnic
Kazakhs that Russia could also intervene in their country. Tokayev’s response of maintaining an
independent Kazakh position regarding the war in Ukraine has earned him support in Kazakhstan
and helped dispel the reputation of having handed the country over to Russia. However, pursuing
this traditional multi-vector foreign policy increases tensions with Russia. Under these circumstances,
balancing external actors is becoming increasingly difficult for the Kazakh government.
6 Literature
Ambrosio, Thomas / Lange, William A. (2014): Mapping Kazakhstan’s geopolitical code: an
analysis of Nazarbayev’s presidential addresses, 1997–2014. In: Eurasian Geography and
Economics, 55 (5), 537-559. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15387216.2015.
1024272?journalCode=rege20 (15.08.2022).
Böttger, Karin / Braun, Yvonne / Plottka, Julian (2019): Die EU-Zentralasienstrategie 2019 – mehr
Handlungsrahmen als strategisches Dokument. In: Integration, 42 (4), 297-320. https://www.
nomos-elibrary.de/10.5771/0720-5120-2019-4-297.pdf?download_full_pdf=1 (15.08.2022).
Braun, Yvonne / Plottka, Julian / Smirnova, Ekaterina (2021): Young Central Asia. Recommendations
to the German Government for the Implementation of the EU-Central Asia Strategy.
IEP Research Paper, No 01/21, 7-10. http://archiv.iep-berlin.de/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/
Young-Central-Asia-Recommendations-to-the-German-Government-for-the-Implementation-
of-the-EU-Central-Asia-Strategy.pdf?it=wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Young-Central-Asia-
Recommendations-to-the-German-Government-for-the-Implementation-of-the-EU-Central-
Asia-Strategy.pdf (15.08.2022).
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (2022): After Ukraine, Is Kazakhstan Next in the
Kremlin’s Sights?. https://carnegieendowment.org/eurasiainsight/87652 (15.08.2022).
Cornell, Svante E. (2022): Learning from Kazakhstan’s January Crisis. In: The Central Asia-
Caucasus Analyst, 18.04.2022, 5. https://www.isdp.eu/content/uploads/2022/04/220418-FT-
Kazakhstan.pdf (15.08.2022).
32 Wirtschaft und Management · Band 33 · März 2023