Bombardier Business Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030 - Learjet ...

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Bombardier Business Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030 - Learjet ...

the forecast

Africa (continued)

According to the African Economic Outlook

by the OECD released in June 2011, recent

political events in North Africa and high food

and fuel prices are likely to slow the continent’s

growth down to 3.7% in 2011. During

this year, Sub-saharan Africa will grow faster

than North Africa. From 2011 to 2030,

Africa’s growth is predicted to average

4.4% per year, according to IHS Global

Insight.

Due to the low economic growth over the

past 50 years, business aviation did not

take root in Africa. The fleet in the region is

relatively small, representing only 2% of the

worldwide fleet. Technical support remains

minimal and lack of trained pilots increases

the costs of operating a business jet.

However, things could begin to change

due to a prosperous outlook on the horizon.

Africa is now one of the world’s fastestgrowing

regions. South Africa held the

2010 World Cup, and its economy and

infrastructure highly benefited from the event.

Although taxes are high in some countries,

this is not a limitation for aircraft sales.

Gaps in scheduled airline service will mean

growth opportunities for business aviation,

but at a slow rate of penetration.

Fleet Evolution Forecast - Africa

Fleet, Deliveries, Retirements; 2010-2030

320

325

Sources: Ascend, Bombardier forecast. Excludes Very Light Jet and Large Corporate Airline categories.

As the forecast business jet penetration

curve shows, fleet per 100 million population

is expected to grow from 37 to 80 over

the next 20 years. Africa will receive 800

business jet deliveries during the 2010-2030

period, 325 aircraft between 2011 and 2020,

and 475 aircraft between 2021 and 2030.

The 2010 fleet of 320 business jets will grow

to 950 aircraft by 2030, with a fleet growth

CAGR of approximately 6%.

80

565

Fleet 2010 Deliveries Retirements Fleet 2020 Deliveries Retirements Fleet 2030

475

Bombardier Business Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030 41

90

950

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