Bombardier Business Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030 - Learjet ...
Bombardier Business Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030 - Learjet ...
Bombardier Business Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030 - Learjet ...
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the forecast<br />
Africa (continued)<br />
According to the African Economic Outlook<br />
by the OECD released in June <strong>2011</strong>, recent<br />
political events in North Africa and high food<br />
and fuel prices are likely to slow the continent’s<br />
growth down to 3.7% in <strong>2011</strong>. During<br />
this year, Sub-saharan Africa will grow faster<br />
than North Africa. From <strong>2011</strong> to <strong>2030</strong>,<br />
Africa’s growth is predicted to average<br />
4.4% per year, according to IHS Global<br />
Insight.<br />
Due to the low economic growth over the<br />
past 50 years, business aviation did not<br />
take root in Africa. The fleet in the region is<br />
relatively small, representing only 2% of the<br />
worldwide fleet. Technical support remains<br />
minimal and lack of trained pilots increases<br />
the costs of operating a business jet.<br />
However, things could begin to change<br />
due to a prosperous outlook on the horizon.<br />
Africa is now one of the world’s fastestgrowing<br />
regions. South Africa held the<br />
2010 World Cup, and its economy and<br />
infrastructure highly benefited from the event.<br />
Although taxes are high in some countries,<br />
this is not a limitation for aircraft sales.<br />
Gaps in scheduled airline service will mean<br />
growth opportunities for business aviation,<br />
but at a slow rate of penetration.<br />
Fleet Evolution <strong>Forecast</strong> - Africa<br />
Fleet, Deliveries, Retirements; 2010-<strong>2030</strong><br />
320<br />
325<br />
Sources: Ascend, <strong>Bombardier</strong> forecast. Excludes Very Light Jet and Large Corporate Airline categories.<br />
As the forecast business jet penetration<br />
curve shows, fleet per 100 million population<br />
is expected to grow from 37 to 80 over<br />
the next 20 years. Africa will receive 800<br />
business jet deliveries during the 2010-<strong>2030</strong><br />
period, 325 aircraft between <strong>2011</strong> and 2020,<br />
and 475 aircraft between 2021 and <strong>2030</strong>.<br />
The 2010 fleet of 320 business jets will grow<br />
to 950 aircraft by <strong>2030</strong>, with a fleet growth<br />
CAGR of approximately 6%.<br />
80<br />
565<br />
Fleet 2010 Deliveries Retirements Fleet 2020 Deliveries Retirements Fleet <strong>2030</strong><br />
475<br />
<strong>Bombardier</strong> <strong>Business</strong> <strong>Aircraft</strong> | <strong>Market</strong> <strong>Forecast</strong> <strong>2011</strong>-<strong>2030</strong> 41<br />
90<br />
950