Bombardier Business Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030 - Learjet ...
Bombardier Business Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030 - Learjet ...
Bombardier Business Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030 - Learjet ...
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the forecast<br />
Asia Pacific (continued)<br />
Japan’s situation appears fragile: after a<br />
2010 rebound with 4.0% growth, prospects<br />
for <strong>2011</strong> only amount to 1.2%, even though<br />
reconstruction efforts will start to kick in<br />
during the second half of this year. Many<br />
economists expect Japan's long-term GDP<br />
growth to be below 1% per year.<br />
Led by the Australian economy, Oceania<br />
grew by 2.5% during 2010. Australia is doted<br />
of a large pool of natural resources and is<br />
benefiting from its geographical proximity to<br />
China and other Growth <strong>Market</strong>s. The country<br />
has recently been dubbed "The next Golden<br />
State" by The Economist. Over the next 20<br />
years, Asia Pacific is predicted to grow<br />
at 3.7% per year, according to IHS Global<br />
Insight.<br />
From a business aviation market stand point,<br />
while Oceania is a typical maturing market,<br />
the Japanese and Emerging Asia markets<br />
remain relatively under developed.<br />
As the forecast business jet penetration curve<br />
shows, fleet per 100 million population is<br />
expected to grow from 34 to 100 over the<br />
next 20 years. Despite hurdles such as the<br />
high handling costs across the region’s<br />
airports, the Asia Pacific region's current<br />
Fleet Evolution <strong>Forecast</strong> - Asia Pacific<br />
Fleet, Deliveries, Retirements; 2010-<strong>2030</strong><br />
350<br />
370<br />
Sources: Ascend, <strong>Bombardier</strong> forecast. Excludes Very Light Jet and Large Corporate Airline categories.<br />
660<br />
business jet fleet of 350 aircraft is expected<br />
to grow at a CAGR of 6% over the next 20<br />
years, and to account for 1,145 aircraft in<br />
<strong>2030</strong>. 975 deliveries are expected in the Asia<br />
Pacific region throughout the next 20 years,<br />
370 aircraft between <strong>2011</strong> and 2020, and<br />
605 aircraft between 2021 and <strong>2030</strong>.<br />
60<br />
605<br />
<strong>Bombardier</strong> <strong>Business</strong> <strong>Aircraft</strong> | <strong>Market</strong> <strong>Forecast</strong> <strong>2011</strong>-<strong>2030</strong> 43<br />
120<br />
1,145<br />
Fleet 2010 Deliveries Retirements Fleet 2020 Deliveries Retirements Fleet <strong>2030</strong>