Electricity Ten Year Statement - National Grid

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2.2 ETYS background and scenarios Slow Progression – developments in renewable and low carbon energy are relatively slow in comparison to Gone Green and Accelerated Growth and the renewable energy target for 2020 is not met until some time between 2020 and 2025. The carbon reduction target for 2020 is achieved but not the indicative target for 2030. Gone Green – this is the main analysis case for the ETYS and assumes a balanced approach with contributions from different generation sectors in order to meet the environmental targets. Gone Green sees the renewable target for 2020 and the emissions targets for 2020, 2030 and 2050 all met. Accelerated Growth – this scenario has more low carbon generation, including renewables, nuclear and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), coupled with greater energy efficiency measures and electrification of heat and transport. Renewable and carbon reduction targets are all met ahead of schedule. Contracted Background – this refers to all generation projects that have a signed connection agreement with National Grid. Assumptions regarding closures have only been made where we have received notification of a reduction in Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) or there is a known closure date driven by binding legislation such as the Large Combustion Plant Directive (LCPD). Each scenario background has its own generation mix (at a generating unit level) and demand assumptions, as outlined in the following sections. Page 18 What are the targets? UK and EU legislation sets targets for renewable energy and emission of greenhouse gases. Renewables are governed by the 2009 Renewable Energy Directive which sets a target for the UK to achieve 15% of its total energy consumption from renewable sources by 2020. The Climate Change Act of 2008 introduced a legally binding target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80% below the 1990 baseline by 2050, with an interim target to reduce emissions by at least 34% in 2020. The Act also introduced ‘carbon budgets’, which set the trajectory to ensure the targets in the Act are met. These budgets represent legally binding limits on the total amount of greenhouse gases that can be emitted in the UK for a given five-year period. The fourth carbon budget covers the period up to 2027 and should ensure that emissions will be reduced by around 60% by 2030. Electricity Market Reform Electricity Market Reform 1 as outlined in the draft Energy Bill, includes the introduction of new long term contracts (Feed-in Tariff with Contracts for Difference), a Carbon Price Floor, a Capacity Mechanism, including demand response as well as generation, and an Emissions Performance Standard (EPS) set at 450g CO2/kWh to reinforce the requirement that no new coal-fired power stations are built without CCS, but also to ensure necessary investment in gas can take place. Our analysis of EMR is ongoing, but we have taken account of the main themes in deriving our electricity generation backgrounds and assume that the mechanisms will play a part in maintaining adequate plant margins and will ensure that there is sufficient renewable and low carbon generation to meet the renewable and carbon targets in the Gone Green and Accelerated Growth scenarios. 1 www.decc.gov.uk/en/ content/cms/meeting_ energy/markets/electricity/ electricity.aspx
2.3 Demand This section describes the electricity demand assumptions for each of the scenarios. 2.3.1 Demand Definition For the purposes of the ETYS demand is included at its assumed peak day level. The assessment of electricity network adequacy tends to focus on the transmission system peak day demand as this is often the most onerous demand condition the network needs to be able to accommodate and will therefore drive many of the required reinforcements. Peak demand is defined within the ETYS as transmission peak demand including losses and excluding station demand and exports. Also no pumping demand at pumped storage stations is assumed to occur at peak times and is therefore excluded. Small embedded generation is treated as ‘negative demand’ for the purposes of calculating transmission demand. Our assumptions on this sector are included in section 2.9 – Embedded generation. Electricity Ten Year Statement November 2012 The electricity transmission peak day demand forecast is derived from detailed analysis on annual electricity consumption. The historic relationship between annual electricity consumption and transmission system peak demand is used to form the basis for future relationships between the annual and peak demands, taking into account how future changes may affect this relationship. Our annual electricity demand projections are derived from a number of key drivers, including: historic annual electricity consumption economic background, including fuel price energy efficiency measures. Detailed description of projections for economic assumptions, energy efficiency measures, electric vehicles, heat pumps and the impact of time-ofuse tariffs can be found in National Grid’s 2012 UK Future Energy Scenarios document. Peak demand projections for all three scenarios and user-based forecasts are shown in Figure 2.1. Page 19
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Page 5 and 6: Contents Foreword /////////////////
Page 7 and 8: future transmission reinforcement.
Page 9 and 10: Falling fault levels on the system
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Page 13 and 14: 1.2 Methodology The document itself
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Page 21 and 22: In Slow Progression, end-users’ p
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Page 29 and 30: Figure 2.5.1: Contracted background
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Page 39 and 40: Figure 2.6.5: Onshore wind contract
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Page 45 and 46: Figure 2.9.2: Gone green embedded g
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Table EC1.2: Reinforcement date for
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Table EC3.1: List of potential rein
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3.5.5 Boundary EC5 Figure EC5.1: Ge
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Figure EC5.2: Generation and capabi
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Boundary Discussion and Opportuniti
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Table EC7.1: List of potential rein
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3.6 North Wales local boundaries 3.
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3.6.3 Boundary NW1 Figure NW1.1: Ge
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1 Reinforcement date triggered by p
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Table NW2.1: List of potential rein
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3.6.5 Boundary NW3 Figure NW3.1: Ge
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Table NW4.1: List of potential rein
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3.7 Wider boundaries 3.7.1 Boundary
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Figure B1.2: Required transfer and
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Electricity Ten Year Statement Nove
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3.7.2 Boundary B2 Figure B2.1: Geog
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Table B5.2: Selection and timing of
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Table B6.1: List of potential reinf
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3.7.8 Boundary B7a Figure B7a.1: Ge
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Figure B7a.2: Required transfer and
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Changes in the capacity and geograp
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3.7.10 Boundary B9 Figure B9.1: Geo
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1 www.nationalgrid.com/uk/ Electric
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3.7.12 Boundary B11 Figure B11.1: G
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3.7.15 Boundary SC1 Figure SC 1.1:
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Table SC1.2: Selection and timing o
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Table B14.1: List of potential rein
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3.7.17 Boundary B14(e) Boundary B14
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In 2018 there is a proposal to conn
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Table B15.1: List of potential rein
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3.8.2 Inputs Future Energy Scenario
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The range of solutions identified w
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1 The Electricity Scenarios Illustr
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3.8.6 Development of current year o
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Figure 3.8.2: Stopping or delaying
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For regions where the boundary tran
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Table 3.8.5: Northern England trans
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Table 3.8.7: Northern England reinf
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Table 3.8.9: Lowest cost strategies
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East Coast and East Anglia Identifi
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Table 3.8.12: Lowest cost strategie
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The worst regrets for each of the o
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The worst regrets for each of the o
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developed incrementally alongside t
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North Wales, South Wales and possib
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Table 3.12.1 It is expected that an
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The boundaries currently assessed r
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4.1 Introduction Electricity Ten Ye
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Figure 4.1.2: Gone green wind produ
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4.2 System operability Figure 4.2.1
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4.3 System design and operation cha
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Figure 4.3.3: System inertia change
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4.3.2 Impact on System Strength (Fa
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Figure 4.3.6: Fault level variation
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There are other factors which will
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Figure 4.3.9: Q/P ratio over a 24hr
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4.3.3 Power Flow Volatility In the
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1 Impact of Intermittency, Poyry su
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1 Andersen, P., “Da stormen tog t
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4.4.2 Parallel Operation of AC and
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4.4.6 Energy Storage The storage of
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5.1 Introduction Electricity Ten Ye
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5.3 Stakeholder engagement The ETYS
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