Electricity Ten Year Statement - National Grid

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2.4 continued Generating capacity Figure 2.4.2: Gone green installed capacity mix GW (installed capacity) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Figure 2.4.2 illustrates the capacity mix for the Gone Green background over the study period. The existing level of renewables at 2012 in this scenario is 8.5% which will rise to 28.5% in 2020 and finally increasing to 41.5% in 2032. 2.4.4 Accelerated Growth 2012 The Accelerated Growth scenario shows a much steeper increase in the level of renewables generation capacity than Gone Green and Slow Progression. The key messages for this scenario are shown below: Wind generation capacity increases steeply in this scenario and reaches 33 GW by 2020 and 64 GW by 2032 showing a total increase over the period of 59 GW. Page 24 2012 Nuclear 2013 2014 2015 2016 Coal 2017 2018 Other Renewables Interconnector 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Gas/CHP Offshore Wind Other (Oil/Pumped) Demand 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Onshore Wind % Renewables 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Gas-fired capacity shows a total increase over the period to 2032 of approximately 5 GW. Coal capacity shows a net decrease over the period to 2032 of approximately 12 GW, the total coal capacity in 2020 is 20 GW with the total decreasing to 12 GW in 2030 but rising slightly again by 2032 as new CCS capacity comes on line. Nuclear generation decreases over the period to 2020 by 1 GW, however increases over the full period to 2032 by a total of 8 GW, with the introduction of new nuclear plant. Other renewables which include marine, hydro and biomass also increase steeply over the period to 2032 showing a total generating capacity increase of approximately 6 GW, taking the total installed capacity to 7.7 GW.
Figure 2.4.3: Accelerated growth installed capacity mix GW (installed capacity) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2012 Nuclear 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Coal 2018 Other Renewables Interconnector 2019 Figure 2.4.3 illustrates the capacity mix for Accelerated Growth. With Accelerated Growth being the scenario with the most rapid build up of renewables the percentage level of installed renewable capacity in 2020 is 34% which increases to 46% in 2032. 2.4.5 Contracted Background 2020 The contracted background used for ETYS was taken from the Transmission Networks Quarterly Connections Update (TNQCU), issued in September 2012. It should be noted that when analysing the contracted background the generation mix includes all projects that have a signed connection agreement and no assumptions are made about the likelihood of a project reaching completion. 2021 2022 2023 Other (Oil/Pumped) 2024 Electricity Ten Year Statement November 2012 2025 2026 2027 Gas/CHP Offshore Wind Demand 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Onshore Wind % Renewables Some of the key messages for the contracted background are: 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% A large increase in contracted wind overall but especially offshore wind with a starting level of 3.6 GW in 2012 rising to a total of 40 GW of generation that currently has a signed connection agreement. A decrease in coal generation amounting to 5.5 GW over the full period, this reflects the known LCPD closures. A rise in nuclear generation capacity which currently has a signed connection agreement results in a total increase over the period to 2032 of 20 GW. Page 25
Page 1: Electricity Ten Year Statement UK e
Page 5 and 6: Contents Foreword /////////////////
Page 7 and 8: future transmission reinforcement.
Page 9 and 10: Falling fault levels on the system
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Page 13 and 14: 1.2 Methodology The document itself
Page 15 and 16: The appendices include: System Sche
Page 17 and 18: 2.1 Future Energy Scenarios Our ene
Page 19 and 20: 2.3 Demand This section describes t
Page 21 and 22: In Slow Progression, end-users’ p
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Page 29 and 30: Figure 2.5.1: Contracted background
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Page 45 and 46: Figure 2.9.2: Gone green embedded g
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Page 49 and 50: 3.1 Introduction Electricity Ten Ye
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Page 53 and 54: The boundary capability is then the
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Figure EC5.2: Generation and capabi
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Boundary Discussion and Opportuniti
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Table EC7.1: List of potential rein
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3.6 North Wales local boundaries 3.
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3.6.3 Boundary NW1 Figure NW1.1: Ge
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1 Reinforcement date triggered by p
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Table NW2.1: List of potential rein
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3.6.5 Boundary NW3 Figure NW3.1: Ge
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Table NW4.1: List of potential rein
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3.7 Wider boundaries 3.7.1 Boundary
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Figure B1.2: Required transfer and
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Electricity Ten Year Statement Nove
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3.7.2 Boundary B2 Figure B2.1: Geog
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Table B5.2: Selection and timing of
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Table B6.1: List of potential reinf
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3.7.8 Boundary B7a Figure B7a.1: Ge
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Figure B7a.2: Required transfer and
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Changes in the capacity and geograp
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3.7.10 Boundary B9 Figure B9.1: Geo
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3.7.12 Boundary B11 Figure B11.1: G
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3.7.15 Boundary SC1 Figure SC 1.1:
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Table SC1.2: Selection and timing o
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Table B14.1: List of potential rein
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3.7.17 Boundary B14(e) Boundary B14
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In 2018 there is a proposal to conn
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Table B15.1: List of potential rein
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3.8.2 Inputs Future Energy Scenario
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The range of solutions identified w
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1 The Electricity Scenarios Illustr
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3.8.6 Development of current year o
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Figure 3.8.2: Stopping or delaying
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For regions where the boundary tran
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Table 3.8.5: Northern England trans
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Table 3.8.7: Northern England reinf
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Table 3.8.9: Lowest cost strategies
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East Coast and East Anglia Identifi
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Table 3.8.12: Lowest cost strategie
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The worst regrets for each of the o
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The worst regrets for each of the o
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developed incrementally alongside t
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North Wales, South Wales and possib
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Table 3.12.1 It is expected that an
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The boundaries currently assessed r
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4.1 Introduction Electricity Ten Ye
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Figure 4.1.2: Gone green wind produ
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4.2 System operability Figure 4.2.1
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4.3 System design and operation cha
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Figure 4.3.3: System inertia change
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4.3.2 Impact on System Strength (Fa
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Figure 4.3.6: Fault level variation
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There are other factors which will
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Figure 4.3.9: Q/P ratio over a 24hr
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4.3.3 Power Flow Volatility In the
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1 Impact of Intermittency, Poyry su
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1 Andersen, P., “Da stormen tog t
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4.4.2 Parallel Operation of AC and
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4.4.6 Energy Storage The storage of
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5.1 Introduction Electricity Ten Ye
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5.3 Stakeholder engagement The ETYS
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Electricity Ten Year Statement - National Grid

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