Electricity Ten Year Statement - National Grid

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2.5 continued Plant margins Figure 2.5.4: Gone green wind sensitivities Plant Margin 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Figure 2.5.4 shows how these de-rated margins would be affected by different assumptions for the level of wind generation availability in the Gone Green scenario. This highlights the importance this assumption has, with the range growing significantly as the amount of wind capacity in this scenario increases. This also highlights that the variance in wind generation availability Page 32 2012 2013 0% to 80% 2014 2015 2016 Wind @ 60% 2017 2018 2019 2020 Wind @ 40% 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Wind @ 20% Wind @ 8% 2029 2030 2031 will have a significant effect on how we operate the transmission system, with the amount of capacity assumed in each scenario based on an assumption that, for security of supply purposes, wind availability is low. These operational challenges are explored in detail in Chapter 4 of this document. 2032
1 www.decc.gov.uk/en/ content/cms/meeting_ energy/renewable_ener/ renew_obs/renew_obs.aspx 2 www.decc.gov.uk/assets/ decc/11/consultation/robanding/5936-renewablesobligation-consultation-thegovernment.pdf 2.6 Renewables One of the key elements for all of the scenarios is the level of renewable generation assumed, as this has a major impact on both network development and network operation. The focus on renewables in this section is a direct consequence of the ETYS document replacing the Offshore Development Information Statement (ODIS) in addition to the Seven Year Statement. The aim is to ensure that information provided in the ODIS continues to be available, recognising that other types of generation are just as important when focusing on the development of the transmission network. This section discusses in more detail four of the renewable generation types that could have a direct impact on the transmission system – offshore wind, onshore wind, marine and biomass. Other renewable generation types that connect principally to the distribution networks are discussed later in this chapter. Renewables Obligation 1 The Renewables Obligation (RO) is currently the main support scheme for renewable electricity projects in the United Kingdom. The key elements of the obligation are: The RO was introduced in 2002 and is set to continue until 2017 when the new arrangements that will form part of the Electricity Market Reform (EMR) outputs will replace the RO. It places an obligation on UK suppliers of electricity to source an increasing proportion of their electricity as renewable generation. Accredited renewable generators are issued with Renewable Obligation Certificates (ROCs) for each megawatt hour (MWh) of eligible energy generated, multiplied by a factor that is dependent on the type of generation technology. Renewable generators can sell their ROCs to electricity suppliers. Electricity Ten Year Statement November 2012 Suppliers meet their obligations by presenting sufficient ROCs. Where they do not have sufficient ROCs to meet their obligations, they must pay an equivalent amount into a fund, the proceeds of which are paid back on a pro-rata basis to those suppliers that have presented ROCs. The RO had an original operational end date of 2027, which has subsequently been extended to 2037 with an associated limit of 20 years support for accredited generation. A banding review for the period 2013 to 2017, which details the number of ROCs available for each MWh generated by different types of renewable generation, was undertaken by the government earlier this year 2 . More detail can be found in the government report, with the key elements related to transmission connected generation being: The ROC level for offshore wind will be 2 ROCs per MWh over the first two years of the banding review period, falling to 1.9 in 2015/6 and 1.8 in 2016/7. The level of support for onshore wind for the banding review period will be reduced to 0.9 ROCs per MWh, guaranteed until at least March 2014, with a review into onshore wind industry costs being undertaken before ROC levels for 2014 to 2017 are finalised. The support levels for dedicated biomass plant will be 1.5 ROCs per MWh, decreasing to 1.4 ROCs per MWh in 2016/17. Biomass conversions will receive 1 ROC per MWh over the banding review period. Tidal generation to receive 2 ROCs per MWh in 2013/14 and 2014/15; 1.9 in 2015/16 and 1.8 in 2016/17. Wave generation to receive 5 ROCs per MWh up to a 30 MW capacity limit and 2 ROCs per MWh above the cap. Page 33
Page 1: Electricity Ten Year Statement UK e
Page 5 and 6: Contents Foreword /////////////////
Page 7 and 8: future transmission reinforcement.
Page 9 and 10: Falling fault levels on the system
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Page 13 and 14: 1.2 Methodology The document itself
Page 15 and 16: The appendices include: System Sche
Page 17 and 18: 2.1 Future Energy Scenarios Our ene
Page 19 and 20: 2.3 Demand This section describes t
Page 21 and 22: In Slow Progression, end-users’ p
Page 23 and 24: Figure 2.4.1: Slow progression gene
Page 25 and 26: Figure 2.4.3: Accelerated growth in
Page 27 and 28: Figure 2.4.5: System development an
Page 29 and 30: Figure 2.5.1: Contracted background
Page 31: Figure 2.5.3: Scenario de-rated pla
Page 35 and 36: The government review of ROC bandin
Page 37 and 38: Figure 2.6.3: Offshore projects in
Page 39 and 40: Figure 2.6.5: Onshore wind contract
Page 41 and 42: Figure 2.6.7: Biomass contracted Vs
Page 43 and 44: 2.8 Non-GB generation In addition t
Page 45 and 46: Figure 2.9.2: Gone green embedded g
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Page 49 and 50: 3.1 Introduction Electricity Ten Ye
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Page 53 and 54: The boundary capability is then the
Page 55 and 56: Co-ordinated designs have been deve
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Page 61 and 62: 3.4.5 Boundary Assessment in Transm
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Page 65 and 66: 3.5 East Coast local boundaries 3.5
Page 67 and 68: 2.3 Axioms 3.5.3 Boundary EC1 Figur
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3.6.3 Boundary NW1 Figure NW1.1: Ge
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1 Reinforcement date triggered by p
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Table NW2.1: List of potential rein
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3.6.5 Boundary NW3 Figure NW3.1: Ge
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Table NW4.1: List of potential rein
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3.7 Wider boundaries 3.7.1 Boundary
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Figure B1.2: Required transfer and
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Electricity Ten Year Statement Nove
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3.7.2 Boundary B2 Figure B2.1: Geog
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Table B5.2: Selection and timing of
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Table B6.1: List of potential reinf
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3.7.8 Boundary B7a Figure B7a.1: Ge
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Figure B7a.2: Required transfer and
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Changes in the capacity and geograp
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3.7.10 Boundary B9 Figure B9.1: Geo
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3.7.12 Boundary B11 Figure B11.1: G
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3.7.15 Boundary SC1 Figure SC 1.1:
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Table SC1.2: Selection and timing o
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Table B14.1: List of potential rein
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3.7.17 Boundary B14(e) Boundary B14
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In 2018 there is a proposal to conn
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Table B15.1: List of potential rein
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3.8.2 Inputs Future Energy Scenario
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The range of solutions identified w
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1 The Electricity Scenarios Illustr
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3.8.6 Development of current year o
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Figure 3.8.2: Stopping or delaying
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For regions where the boundary tran
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Table 3.8.5: Northern England trans
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Table 3.8.7: Northern England reinf
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Table 3.8.9: Lowest cost strategies
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East Coast and East Anglia Identifi
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Table 3.8.12: Lowest cost strategie
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The worst regrets for each of the o
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The worst regrets for each of the o
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developed incrementally alongside t
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North Wales, South Wales and possib
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Table 3.12.1 It is expected that an
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The boundaries currently assessed r
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4.1 Introduction Electricity Ten Ye
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Figure 4.1.2: Gone green wind produ
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4.2 System operability Figure 4.2.1
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4.3 System design and operation cha
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Figure 4.3.3: System inertia change
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4.3.2 Impact on System Strength (Fa
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Figure 4.3.6: Fault level variation
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There are other factors which will
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Figure 4.3.9: Q/P ratio over a 24hr
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4.3.3 Power Flow Volatility In the
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1 Impact of Intermittency, Poyry su
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1 Andersen, P., “Da stormen tog t
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4.4.2 Parallel Operation of AC and
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4.4.6 Energy Storage The storage of
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5.1 Introduction Electricity Ten Ye
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5.3 Stakeholder engagement The ETYS
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Electricity Ten Year Statement - National Grid

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