Electricity Ten Year Statement - National Grid

2.7
Interconnectors
Our assumptions on the capacity of
interconnectors with continental Europe vary
between scenarios, although we have assumed
the same level of interconnection capacity to
Ireland across all three scenarios.
Ireland
In all years for Slow Progression (and to a lesser
extent Gone Green) and in this decade for
Accelerated Growth, we expect Great Britain to
be a net exporter of electricity to Northern Ireland
via the existing Moyle interconnector and to
Ireland via the new East-West interconnector.
We anticipate that exports from GB will
increase following the addition of the East-West
interconnector, although some displacement of
flows may take place. For Slow Progression we
expect the level of Irish exports to increase slightly
to 2030. Over the longer term in Gone Green
and Accelerated Growth, we expect net exports
from GB to gradually decline as Ireland develops
more indigenous power generation, notably wind
capacity and in the Accelerated Growth scenario,
we anticipate imports from Ireland will exceed
exports from GB by the 2020s.
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Europe
In the Slow Progression scenario there is
limited new interconnection, with total GB
capacity reaching 6.6 GW by 2030. We
anticipate that GB will continue to be a net
importer from continental Europe with imports
increasing by 2030 in line with the gradual
increase in interconnector capacity.
In Gone Green the level of interconnection
capacity increases to 8.6 GW by 2030. We
expect both annual imports and exports to
rise from current levels in line with the increase
in interconnection capacity, with exports
increasing markedly from the latter part of this
decade onwards as renewable generation
increases so that GB becomes a net exporter
to the continent by the early 2020s.
For Accelerated Growth the level of
interconnection capacity increases significantly
to 11.6 GW by 2030. We anticipate that the
growth in renewable generation and increase
in interconnection capacity will result in GB
becoming a net exporter at the end of this
decade with significant increases in exports
and reductions in imports by 2030.
At times of peak electricity demand we assume
that electricity will always be flowing from GB
to Ireland (except for Accelerated Growth in the
2020s), but that the interconnectors between GB
and continental Europe will be neither importing
nor exporting at times of peak demand. The
direction of flow of interconnectors is a key
sensitivity that is assessed when analysing the
development of the transmission network.
Further information on specific interconnector
projects can be found in Chapter 3.