Electricity Ten Year Statement - National Grid

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2.6 continued Renewables Figure 2.6.1: Renewables contracted background by stage GW 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 The analysis shown in Figure 2.11 includes offshore wind, onshore wind, biomass, hydro and marine generation comparing the split contracted background against the scenario backgrounds. Figure 2.6.1 shows there is an existing level of around 7 GW of renewable generating capacity, with the Gone Green scenario renewable capacity level in 2020 at approximately 30 GW. Therefore if the Gone Green scenario is to be met then a further 25 GW of renewable generation (out of a total 45 GW of renewable contracted future generation with completion dates before 2020), will need to connect to the transmission system by 2020. Slow Progression shows a level of 15 GW of renewable generation capacity connected to the transmission system by 2020, showing an Page 34 2012 2013 2014 Existing Without Consents 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Under Construction Slow Progression 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Consents Approved Gone Green 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 increase of 8 GW on current existing levels. There is around 7 GW of further renewable generation currently with consents. Accelerated Growth shows a steep increase in renewable generation capacity by 2020 resulting in an increase on current existing levels of 30 GW. In the longer term there is an assumed growth in renewable generation that exceeds the current level of contracted renewable generation. In summary, renewable generation plays a large part in all of the scenarios over the period to 2032 and there is currently enough contracted generation capacity to meet the levels required under the Slow Progression and Gone Green scenarios. The majority of these generation projects, however, are currently in the scoping or without consents phase of development. 2032 Awaiting Consents Accelerated Growth
The government review of ROC banding shows that there is still commitment to renewable generation technologies, which is emphasised by the level of renewable generation growth in our scenarios, particularly Gone Green and Accelerated Growth. In order to meet the longterm environmental targets out to 2050 then there will need to be a continued focus on low carbon generation and renewable generation will undoubtedly have a role to play. 2.6.1 Offshore Wind Offshore wind has the potential to have a significant impact on the future development of the transmission network and particularly in the Gone Green and Accelerated Growth scenarios, it plays a significant role in the future energy mix. The Crown Estate has facilitated a series of leasing rounds under which areas of the seabed have been made available for the development of offshore wind farms. Table 2.6.1 shows the potential for each leasing round and also how much of this capacity is operational, under construction or in the scoping phase of development. Electricity Ten Year Statement November 2012 Table 2.6.1: Offshore wind potential Source: The Crown Estate Round Name Status Indicative Capacity (MW) Round 1 Operational 1027 Under Construction 62 Round 2 Operational 484 Partially Operational 1155 Under Construction 1476 Under Development 4138 Round 1 & 2 Extensions Scottish Territorial Waters Under Development Under Development Round 3 Zones Under Development TOTAL OFFSHORE WIND POTENTIAL 1539 4845 36515 51241 Table 2.6.1 shows the current potential for offshore wind generation capacity as being 51.2 GW based on The Crown Estate leasing rounds. Figure 2.6.2 shows the current contracted position for offshore wind against the requirement for offshore wind generation in each of the three scenarios over the period to 2032. Page 35
Page 1: Electricity Ten Year Statement UK e
Page 5 and 6: Contents Foreword /////////////////
Page 7 and 8: future transmission reinforcement.
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Page 13 and 14: 1.2 Methodology The document itself
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Page 19 and 20: 2.3 Demand This section describes t
Page 21 and 22: In Slow Progression, end-users’ p
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Page 29 and 30: Figure 2.5.1: Contracted background
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1 Reinforcement date triggered by p
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Table NW2.1: List of potential rein
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3.6.5 Boundary NW3 Figure NW3.1: Ge
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Table NW4.1: List of potential rein
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3.7 Wider boundaries 3.7.1 Boundary
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Figure B1.2: Required transfer and
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3.7.2 Boundary B2 Figure B2.1: Geog
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Table B5.2: Selection and timing of
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Table B6.1: List of potential reinf
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3.7.8 Boundary B7a Figure B7a.1: Ge
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Figure B7a.2: Required transfer and
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Changes in the capacity and geograp
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3.7.10 Boundary B9 Figure B9.1: Geo
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3.7.12 Boundary B11 Figure B11.1: G
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3.7.15 Boundary SC1 Figure SC 1.1:
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Table SC1.2: Selection and timing o
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Table B14.1: List of potential rein
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3.7.17 Boundary B14(e) Boundary B14
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In 2018 there is a proposal to conn
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Table B15.1: List of potential rein
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3.8.2 Inputs Future Energy Scenario
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The range of solutions identified w
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1 The Electricity Scenarios Illustr
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3.8.6 Development of current year o
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Figure 3.8.2: Stopping or delaying
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For regions where the boundary tran
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Table 3.8.5: Northern England trans
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Table 3.8.7: Northern England reinf
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Table 3.8.9: Lowest cost strategies
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East Coast and East Anglia Identifi
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Table 3.8.12: Lowest cost strategie
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The worst regrets for each of the o
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The worst regrets for each of the o
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developed incrementally alongside t
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North Wales, South Wales and possib
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Table 3.12.1 It is expected that an
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The boundaries currently assessed r
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4.1 Introduction Electricity Ten Ye
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Figure 4.1.2: Gone green wind produ
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4.2 System operability Figure 4.2.1
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4.3 System design and operation cha
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Figure 4.3.3: System inertia change
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4.3.2 Impact on System Strength (Fa
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Figure 4.3.6: Fault level variation
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There are other factors which will
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Figure 4.3.9: Q/P ratio over a 24hr
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4.3.3 Power Flow Volatility In the
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1 Impact of Intermittency, Poyry su
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1 Andersen, P., “Da stormen tog t
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4.4.2 Parallel Operation of AC and
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4.4.6 Energy Storage The storage of
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5.1 Introduction Electricity Ten Ye
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5.3 Stakeholder engagement The ETYS
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Electricity Ten Year Statement - National Grid

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