Electricity Ten Year Statement - National Grid

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2.5 Plant margins This section brings together the information described earlier in this chapter on demand projections and future generation capacity mix and assesses the status of future generation projects and the ‘plant margin’ assumed in the different energy scenarios. The plant margin is defined as the amount of generation capacity available over and above the level of peak demand. 2.5.1 Project Status Figure 2.5.1 shows the current status of the projects included in the contracted generation background. These categories are broadly defined as follows: Existing – this is the level of generation capacity already built and commercially generating. Under Construction – the level of generation capacity which is currently being built. Consents Approved – generation projects that have obtained the relevant consents to proceed. Awaiting Consents – these are generation projects that have applied for the relevant consents to proceed but are awaiting a decision. Scoping – these are projects that have a signed connection agreement only but have not yet applied for any consents. Page 28 In addition Figure 2.5.1 includes the level of ‘existing’ generation assumed in each of the three energy scenarios. These figures include assumptions on plant closures within each of the scenarios and highlights when new generation will be required in these scenarios. This is explored further in the assessment of plant margins later in this section, but the impact of environmental legislation and ageing plant can be seen as existing generation falls due to these plant closures. A significant proportion of the contracted generation is in the scoping phase, with the majority of this being low-carbon generation such as offshore wind and new nuclear plant. Around 15 GW of plant has the relevant consents with just over 9 GW of this being CCGT plant.
Figure 2.5.1: Contracted background Vs existing scenarios GW 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2012 2013 Existing SP Existing 2014 2015 2016 2017 2.5.2 Plant Margin Analysis 2018 Under Construction GG Existing 2019 2020 When assessing plant margins it is important to consider the definition of the numbers being quoted. Traditionally we have referred to a ‘20% plant margin’ and for the purposes of this section we have included data on both this traditional measure and on a de-rated plant margin basis. This allows a comparison with other publications, such as the Ofgem Capacity Assessment, which tend to focus on this de-rated approach. This calculation uses peak demand and then reduces the level of generation capacity to include an assumed level of availability at the time of peak demand. The ‘20% margin’ approach that has 2021 2022 2023 Consents Approved AG Existing Electricity Ten Year Statement November 2012 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Awaiting Consents Without Consents GG Demand been used in previous publications includes no reduction in generation capacity, except for wind generation which is reduced to 5% of its maximum capacity. This plant margin of 20% is then assumed to be maintained in future scenario assessments, this being deemed adequate to maintain the required level of security of supply. The de-rated margin equivalent of the 20% figure is approximately 8%, but this can vary depending on the generation mix and the assumptions made with respect to availability. These figures should therefore be only used as a guide. Page 29
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Page 5 and 6: Contents Foreword /////////////////
Page 7 and 8: future transmission reinforcement.
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Page 13 and 14: 1.2 Methodology The document itself
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3.7 Wider boundaries 3.7.1 Boundary
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3.7.17 Boundary B14(e) Boundary B14
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In 2018 there is a proposal to conn
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3.8.2 Inputs Future Energy Scenario
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3.8.6 Development of current year o
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Figure 3.8.2: Stopping or delaying
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Table 3.8.9: Lowest cost strategies
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East Coast and East Anglia Identifi
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Table 3.12.1 It is expected that an
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Figure 4.1.2: Gone green wind produ
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4.2 System operability Figure 4.2.1
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4.3 System design and operation cha
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Figure 4.3.3: System inertia change
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4.3.2 Impact on System Strength (Fa
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Figure 4.3.6: Fault level variation
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There are other factors which will
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4.3.3 Power Flow Volatility In the
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4.4.6 Energy Storage The storage of
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5.1 Introduction Electricity Ten Ye
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5.3 Stakeholder engagement The ETYS
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