Decision Models in Skiable Areas - EPFL

6 MODEL OF DEMAND IN A SKIABLE AREA 16
Name Value Std err t-test
Attelas 2 2.59 0.15 17.45
Mont-Gel -4.66 0.72 -6.50
La Combe 1 3.62 0.46 7.90
La Combe 2 -0.01 0.12 -0.08 *
Mont-Fort 0.00 fixed
Funipace 1.99 0.09 23.26
Max black 0.07 0.04 2.03
Maxmax black -0.89 0.04 -21.99
Min red -1.60 0.10 -15.71
Minmax red -1.71 0.03 -52.23
Protection 0.34 0.04 7.56
Sieges 2.26 0.12 18.77
Figure 7: Results of the model avoiding the hypothesis that a black level ski slope is
two times more difficult than a red one. The star (*) means that the corresponding
coefficient fails the significance test.
Finally, two different types of strategically places were defined. The first type are
places from where a lot of lifts are leaving. The second type are places where a lot of
lifts are ending. In the case of Verbier, the strategically places of the first type are
• ”Les Ruinettes”
• ”La Chaux”
• ”Tortin”
and there are two places of the second type
• ”Les Attelas”
• ”Col des Gentianes”
But the constants corresponding to ”Tortin” and ”Col des Gentianes” are eliminated
because of lack of data in this part of the area. Also the constant corresponding to ”La
Chaux” is eliminate because it fails the significance test and the hypothesis that it exists
has to be rejected.
These all together forms the Final Model, derived from the Basic Model. The
parameters and coefficients of the Final Model are estimated with the large collection
of about 7000 choices from the data. The result is illustrated in Figure 8.
6.1.5 Interpretation of the Final Model
In this section, the result is tried to be interpreted. First the coefficients are interpreted,
then the constants.
Interpretation of the signs of the coefficients
• Max noir (negative):
A lift, where the maximal difficulty of ski slopes leaving from the top is black, is
less attractive than a lift where it is a blue one. This sign can not be interpreted.