Decision Models in Skiable Areas - EPFL
Decision Models in Skiable Areas - EPFL
Decision Models in Skiable Areas - EPFL
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CONTENTS 2<br />
Contents<br />
1 Introduction 3<br />
2 Goal of this Semester Project 3<br />
3 Methodology - Discrete Choice <strong>Models</strong> 4<br />
3.1 <strong>Decision</strong> Maker . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4<br />
3.2 Alternatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4<br />
3.3 Attributes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4<br />
3.4 Random Utility <strong>Models</strong> . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4<br />
3.4.1 The Determ<strong>in</strong>istic Term . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5<br />
3.4.2 The Random Term . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5<br />
3.5 Probit <strong>Models</strong> . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6<br />
3.5.1 Mult<strong>in</strong>omial Probit Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6<br />
3.6 Logit <strong>Models</strong> . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7<br />
3.6.1 B<strong>in</strong>ary Logit Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7<br />
3.6.2 Mult<strong>in</strong>omial Logit Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7<br />
4 Data 8<br />
5 Model of the skiable area of Verbier 8<br />
6 Model of demand <strong>in</strong> a skiable area 8<br />
6.1 The Lift Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9<br />
6.1.1 The Basic Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9<br />
6.1.2 Analysis of the Basic Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11<br />
6.1.3 First approach: Time dependence of ”M<strong>in</strong>max” and ”Prot” . . 12<br />
6.1.4 Second Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14<br />
6.1.5 Interpretation of the F<strong>in</strong>al Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16<br />
6.2 The Ski slope Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18<br />
6.3 Implementation <strong>in</strong> the code . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18<br />
7 Conclusions 19<br />
8 Future objectives 19