Climate Risk Management in Finnish Development Cooperation - Gaia
Climate Risk Management in Finnish Development Cooperation - Gaia
Climate Risk Management in Finnish Development Cooperation - Gaia
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<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong> F<strong>in</strong>nish <strong>Development</strong><br />
<strong>Cooperation</strong><br />
Ethiopia Adapt<strong>in</strong>g to <strong>Climate</strong> Change<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> Screen<strong>in</strong>g Assessment<br />
F<strong>in</strong>al report<br />
September 2009<br />
Mikko Halonen, Jussi Nikula, Al<strong>in</strong>a Pathan, Pasi R<strong>in</strong>ne<br />
<strong>Gaia</strong> Consult<strong>in</strong>g Oy
Table of Contents<br />
Abbreviations....................................................................................................3<br />
1 Introduction................................................................................................4<br />
1.1 Project background ......................................................................................................4<br />
1.2 F<strong>in</strong>nish development cooperation <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia and climate change.............................5<br />
1.3 Objectives.....................................................................................................................6<br />
1.4 Approach and implementation ....................................................................................6<br />
2 <strong>Climate</strong> change <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia..........................................................................10<br />
2.1 <strong>Climate</strong> patterns and climate variability ......................................................................10<br />
2.2 <strong>Climate</strong> change projections for Ethiopia <strong>in</strong> the 21 st century........................................14<br />
3 <strong>Climate</strong> vulnerability and adaptation priorities <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia..........................18<br />
3.1 Vulnerability to climate variability and change............................................................18<br />
3.2 National adaptation priorities and capacity needs ......................................................19<br />
3.3 <strong>Climate</strong> ma<strong>in</strong>stream<strong>in</strong>g by <strong>in</strong>ternational development cooperation partners............22<br />
4 Prelim<strong>in</strong>ary climate screen<strong>in</strong>g of selected development cooperation projects<br />
<strong>in</strong> Ethiopia...................................................................................................25<br />
4.1 Overview of the selected projects and screen<strong>in</strong>g process...........................................25<br />
4.2 Rural Water Supply and Environmental Programme <strong>in</strong> Amhara Region (RWSEP) ......27<br />
4.3 Rural Water supply, Sanitation and Hygiene programme <strong>in</strong> Benishangul Gumuz region<br />
(F<strong>in</strong>nWASH BG)...................................................................................................................30<br />
4.4 Technical Assistance to the Watershed Monitor<strong>in</strong>g and Evaluation (WME) Component<br />
of the Tana Beles Integrated Water Resources <strong>Development</strong> Project (TBIWRDP)............34<br />
5 Key f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>gs and conclusions.......................................................................38<br />
Appendix...........................................................................................................41<br />
Annex I. Ethiopia <strong>Climate</strong> Change Implications for F<strong>in</strong>land ...............................................41<br />
Annex II. Activities supported by the Government of F<strong>in</strong>land <strong>in</strong> the water sector ...........55<br />
Annex III. <strong>Climate</strong> risk screen<strong>in</strong>g & ma<strong>in</strong>stream<strong>in</strong>g approaches & tools ...........................56<br />
Annex IV. List of organizations/persons consulted dur<strong>in</strong>g the assignment .......................57<br />
References ........................................................................................................59<br />
2
Abbreviations<br />
ACPC African <strong>Climate</strong> Policy Centre<br />
AfDB African <strong>Development</strong> Bank<br />
CDF Community <strong>Development</strong> Fund<br />
DFID Department for International <strong>Development</strong><br />
ENTRO Support to Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office<br />
F<strong>in</strong>nWASH Rural water supply, Sanitation and Hygiene programme<br />
GTZ German Technical <strong>Cooperation</strong><br />
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on <strong>Climate</strong> Change<br />
LDC Least Developed Countries<br />
LULUCF Land use, land-use change and forestry<br />
M&E Monitor<strong>in</strong>g and Evaluation<br />
MIS <strong>Management</strong> Information System<br />
MoFa M<strong>in</strong>istry for Foreign Affairs of F<strong>in</strong>land<br />
NAPA National Adaptation Programme of Action<br />
NGO Non-Government Organisation<br />
PASDEP Plan for Accelerated and Susta<strong>in</strong>able <strong>Development</strong> to End Poverty<br />
REDD/REDD+ Reduc<strong>in</strong>g Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation<br />
RWSEP Rural Water Supply and Environmental Programme <strong>in</strong> Amhara Region<br />
TBIWRDP Tana Beles Integrated Water Resources <strong>Development</strong> Project<br />
UAP Universal Action Plan<br />
UNDAF United Nations <strong>Development</strong> Assistance Framework<br />
UNDP United Nations<br />
UNMEE United Nations Mission <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia and Eritrea<br />
WME Watershed Monitor<strong>in</strong>g and Evaluation<br />
3
1 Introduction<br />
1.1 Project background<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> change is one of the central challenges fac<strong>in</strong>g humanity <strong>in</strong> the 21st century. The way<br />
<strong>in</strong> which we will address it will have profound implications for human development. Despite<br />
<strong>in</strong>ternational efforts to curb the emissions of greenhouse gases, it is clear that dur<strong>in</strong>g the<br />
forthcom<strong>in</strong>g decades all societies will have to adapt to the on-go<strong>in</strong>g changes caused by<br />
climate change.<br />
One of the central objectives of F<strong>in</strong>nish <strong>Development</strong> <strong>Cooperation</strong> is to enhance susta<strong>in</strong>able<br />
development and growth <strong>in</strong> partner countries, which necessarily implies systematically<br />
<strong>in</strong>tegrat<strong>in</strong>g climate mitigation and adaptation <strong>in</strong>to all plann<strong>in</strong>g, implementation and<br />
monitor<strong>in</strong>g activities.<br />
Assess<strong>in</strong>g climate risks and identify<strong>in</strong>g optimal adaptation measures <strong>in</strong> development<br />
cooperation will require particular attention as i) climate research <strong>in</strong>dicates clearly that the<br />
develop<strong>in</strong>g countries <strong>in</strong> general and the least developed countries (LDCs) such as Ethiopia <strong>in</strong><br />
particular are most vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate variability and change, ii)<br />
LDCs, small vulnerable economies (SVE) and small island develop<strong>in</strong>g states (SIDS) have<br />
currently very limited resources to adapt, and iii) the public sector will have a critical role <strong>in</strong><br />
particular related to adaptation with regards to catalyz<strong>in</strong>g fund<strong>in</strong>g, capacity build<strong>in</strong>g and<br />
technology transfer <strong>in</strong> the immediate future.<br />
Tak<strong>in</strong>g note of lessons learned from <strong>in</strong>ternational forerunners on review<strong>in</strong>g their<br />
development cooperation through a “climate lens” 1 as well as the extensive knowledge base<br />
on climate change adaptation that has been elaborated <strong>in</strong> F<strong>in</strong>land dur<strong>in</strong>g past few years 2 ,<br />
F<strong>in</strong>land has a responsibility and an exceptional opportunity to enhance and strengthen the<br />
adaptive capacity of its development cooperation partner countries as well as draw<br />
important lessons learned for further climate adaptation measures <strong>in</strong>ternationally and <strong>in</strong><br />
F<strong>in</strong>land.<br />
1<br />
E.g. climate screen<strong>in</strong>g and/or ma<strong>in</strong>stream<strong>in</strong>g efforts and approaches by DFID, DANIDA, DGIS, GTZ, SDC, WB,<br />
ADB, see Annex III<br />
2<br />
F<strong>in</strong>nish research programmes (such as FINADAPT, ISTO-The national <strong>Climate</strong> Change Adaptation Research<br />
Programme) have catalyzed extensive knowledge about climate adaptation and contributed to develop<strong>in</strong>g tools<br />
for <strong>in</strong>tegrat<strong>in</strong>g the latest climate science results <strong>in</strong>to concrete decision mak<strong>in</strong>g on national and local levels.<br />
4
1.2 F<strong>in</strong>nish development cooperation <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia and climate<br />
change<br />
F<strong>in</strong>nish development cooperation with Ethiopia is based on the priorities identified <strong>in</strong> the<br />
Plan for Accelerated and Susta<strong>in</strong>able <strong>Development</strong> to End Poverty (PASDEP). Through its<br />
activities, F<strong>in</strong>land aims to support Ethiopia to address some of its key susta<strong>in</strong>able<br />
development and poverty challenges related to climate variability, rapid population growth,<br />
environmental degradation and societal <strong>in</strong>stability.<br />
In particular, F<strong>in</strong>nish cooperation efforts have focused on the education and water sectors.<br />
With<strong>in</strong> the education sector, cooperation is expected to cont<strong>in</strong>ue on education support for<br />
special / vulnerable groups (groups with special needs) with a focus on the quality of<br />
education. With regards to the water sector, project based cooperation with the overall<br />
objective of enhanc<strong>in</strong>g susta<strong>in</strong>able management of water resources has been implemented<br />
<strong>in</strong> the states of Amhara and Benishangul-Gumuz. As part of the Eastern-Nile regional<br />
cooperation, together with the Government of Ethiopia, Support to Eastern Nile Technical<br />
Regional Office (ENTRO) and the World Bank, F<strong>in</strong>land has also prepared a project for<br />
<strong>in</strong>tegrated watershed management <strong>in</strong> the Tana-Beles sub-bas<strong>in</strong>.<br />
As highlighted <strong>in</strong> the Ethiopian National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) 3 , current<br />
climate variability is already impos<strong>in</strong>g a significant challenge to Ethiopia by affect<strong>in</strong>g food<br />
security, water and energy supply, poverty reduction and susta<strong>in</strong>able development efforts,<br />
as well as by caus<strong>in</strong>g natural resource degradation and natural disasters. The extremely high<br />
dependence on ra<strong>in</strong> fed agriculture 4 and generally under-development of water resources,<br />
only accentuate the urgency of systematic adaptation and susta<strong>in</strong>able growth <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia.<br />
E.g. the droughts of the 1972/73, 1984 and 2002/03 as well as the floods <strong>in</strong> 2006 caused<br />
substantial human life and property loss <strong>in</strong> many parts of the country, and provide an<br />
<strong>in</strong>dication of events that are likely to be exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change <strong>in</strong> the<br />
future.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> change has been generally identified as a threat to development goals, <strong>in</strong> particular<br />
due to Ethiopia’s low adaptive capacity and high climate sensitivity of its socio-economic<br />
systems. Extensive efforts are rapidly required to prevent cont<strong>in</strong>ued climate variability and<br />
change underm<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g efforts to reach the national development objectives. It is also<br />
important to note that good adaptation can reduce present and future losses from climate<br />
3 <strong>Climate</strong> change national adaptation progranmme of action (NAPA) of Ethiopia, 2007. The National Adaptation<br />
Programme of Action (NAPA) is a mechanism with<strong>in</strong> the UNFCCC, designed to help the Least Developed Countries<br />
(LDCs) <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g Ethiopia to identify their priority adaptation needs to climate change and to communicate these<br />
needs to the Conference of Parties (COP) of the UNFCCC and other concerned bodies.<br />
4 Agricultural production forms the basis of the Ethiopian economy and some 85% of the population practically<br />
lives on agriculture.<br />
5
variability and change as well as be synergistic with other development objectives (be it<br />
mitigation, poverty reduction, disaster risk reduction and overall improved livelihood etc.).<br />
The <strong>in</strong>ternational partners can play a valuable role <strong>in</strong> assist<strong>in</strong>g Ethiopia <strong>in</strong> these efforts. 5<br />
1.3 Objectives<br />
The overall objective of the study was to contribute to the ma<strong>in</strong>stream<strong>in</strong>g of climate change<br />
<strong>in</strong>to F<strong>in</strong>nish development cooperation and f<strong>in</strong>d ways to strengthen the capacities to adapt to<br />
climate variability and change <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia.<br />
The project strengthens F<strong>in</strong>nish climate risk and adaptation know-how and its <strong>in</strong>clusion as an<br />
<strong>in</strong>tegral part <strong>in</strong> development cooperation. It aims to support systematic ma<strong>in</strong>stream<strong>in</strong>g of<br />
climate considerations <strong>in</strong>to F<strong>in</strong>nish country/sector programmes and climate proof<strong>in</strong>g of<br />
selected development cooperation projects <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia. Through the consultative work<strong>in</strong>g<br />
process and its recommendations the study also aims to support further climate adaptation<br />
capacity build<strong>in</strong>g efforts <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia.<br />
In addition to the core objectives described above, the study exam<strong>in</strong>es potential direct<br />
and/or <strong>in</strong>direct implications of climate change <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia from the perspective of the F<strong>in</strong>nish<br />
society <strong>in</strong> Annex 1 6 .<br />
1.4 Approach and implementation<br />
This study <strong>in</strong>cludes an assessment of climate risks and vulnerability <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia. While the<br />
resources allocated for this study have not allowed a detailed risk assessment on country,<br />
sector and project levels, it presents a prelim<strong>in</strong>ary review on how climate risks 7 are taken<br />
<strong>in</strong>to account <strong>in</strong> F<strong>in</strong>nish development cooperation <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia, and particularly <strong>in</strong> the water<br />
sector. The study suggests approaches, concrete tools and potential measures how to<br />
strengthen adaptation 8 measures and climate proof<strong>in</strong>g F<strong>in</strong>nish development cooperation <strong>in</strong><br />
5 As also noted <strong>in</strong> the Ethiopian NAPA, adaptation is neither a one-off <strong>in</strong>tervention nor a stand-alone activity. It is<br />
rather a process that needs to be <strong>in</strong>corporated <strong>in</strong> the overall development plann<strong>in</strong>g, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g the design and<br />
implementation of projects and programs across relevant sectors.<br />
6 In addition to M<strong>in</strong>istry for Foreign Affairs of F<strong>in</strong>land (MoFa) fund<strong>in</strong>g, the study is co-funded by the F<strong>in</strong>nish<br />
National <strong>Climate</strong> Change Adaptation Research Programme (ISTO, coord<strong>in</strong>ated by the M<strong>in</strong>istry of Agriculture and<br />
Forestry) and contributes <strong>in</strong> parallel to the F<strong>in</strong>nish climate adaptation strategy process.<br />
7 The risks can be direct risks to ODA programmes and deliverables, e.g. due to extreme weather events or lack of<br />
climate proof<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> design phase. The risks can cause underperformance e.g. due to changes <strong>in</strong> ra<strong>in</strong>fall patterns<br />
or health impacts. The risks may also arise from direct/<strong>in</strong>direct impacts on target population, which e.g. may<br />
have had to migrate due to losses of livelihood. See e.g. Danida <strong>Climate</strong> change screen<strong>in</strong>g of Danish development<br />
cooperation <strong>in</strong> Kenya, 2007.<br />
8 The survey focuses on adaptation, tak<strong>in</strong>g note of an on-go<strong>in</strong>g UNDP assessment of mitigation and CDM<br />
potential <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia. When identify<strong>in</strong>g and assess<strong>in</strong>g potential adaptation measures, potential l<strong>in</strong>kages and<br />
synergistic measures e.g. with disaster risk reduction (DRR) and mitigation have been noted.<br />
6
Ethiopia. As noted above, the climate screen<strong>in</strong>g has been complemented by a prelim<strong>in</strong>ary<br />
assessment of potential direct and/or <strong>in</strong>direct implications of climate change <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia for<br />
F<strong>in</strong>land. 9<br />
This pilot assessment has looked at F<strong>in</strong>nish development cooperation and climate<br />
adaptation needs <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia on three complementary levels, i.e. country level, sector level<br />
and programme/project level. The prelim<strong>in</strong>ary climate screen<strong>in</strong>g 10 focused on the water<br />
sector portfolio, which forms a cornerstone of F<strong>in</strong>nish development cooperation with<br />
Ethiopia. With<strong>in</strong> the water sector, three programmes/projects have been reviewed,<br />
provid<strong>in</strong>g examples of a variety of projects <strong>in</strong> different phases of their project cycle.<br />
Given the overall objectives of the study as well as the pilot nature of this screen<strong>in</strong>g exercise,<br />
the “comb<strong>in</strong>ed approach” used <strong>in</strong> this study has drawn on experiences and lessons learned<br />
from a series of climate screen<strong>in</strong>g forerunner countries and organizations (<strong>in</strong> particular<br />
ORCHID - Opportunities and <strong>Risk</strong>s of <strong>Climate</strong> Change and Disasters, DANIDA climate change<br />
screen<strong>in</strong>g matrixes and CRiSTAL/Community-based <strong>Risk</strong> Screen<strong>in</strong>g – Adaptation and<br />
Livelihoods, see Annex III). It also makes use of the climate risk management methods and<br />
experiences (such as the <strong>Climate</strong>-CIVA 11 method) elaborated as part of the F<strong>in</strong>nish national<br />
climate research adaptation programme 12 . This “comb<strong>in</strong>ed approach” has allowed<br />
consideration of climate risks widely from a strategic po<strong>in</strong>t of view as well as from a<br />
livelihoods po<strong>in</strong>t of view.<br />
The “comb<strong>in</strong>ed approach” used <strong>in</strong> this study is presented <strong>in</strong> figure 1 below. The objective<br />
has been to <strong>in</strong>tegrate risks of climate change and opportunities for adaptation <strong>in</strong>to the<br />
development programme rather than as stand-alone climate adaptation (or mitigation)<br />
projects. This could be achieved <strong>in</strong> a manner that acknowledges latest climate science,<br />
communicates climate risks <strong>in</strong> an easily understandable manner to all relevant stakeholders,<br />
allows <strong>in</strong>tegrat<strong>in</strong>g climate risk management and reduces any climate vulnerability <strong>in</strong> a<br />
manner that does not overstretch programme/project staff resources and supports reach<strong>in</strong>g<br />
of specific project objectives and development objectives at large.<br />
9 See Annex I. These potential implications may be reflected e.g. through environment and conflict l<strong>in</strong>kages,<br />
<strong>in</strong>creased need for humanitarian assistance and disaster risk reduction, <strong>in</strong>creased migration and immigration,<br />
potential repercussions through trade etc. This project component will serve more broadly the ISTO research<br />
programme and make use of prelim<strong>in</strong>ary scop<strong>in</strong>g activities conducted with<strong>in</strong> it. See ISTO project IMPLIFIN: an<br />
<strong>in</strong>vestigation of the <strong>in</strong>ternational impacts of climate change hav<strong>in</strong>g potential implications for F<strong>in</strong>land, conducted<br />
by the F<strong>in</strong>nish Environment Institute (SYKE), F<strong>in</strong>land.<br />
10 The climate change screen<strong>in</strong>g will <strong>in</strong>clude an assessment of the risks of climate change <strong>in</strong> achiev<strong>in</strong>g the<br />
outcomes of the F<strong>in</strong>nish development programmes and identification of opportunities for reduced vulnerability.<br />
It will provide a prelim<strong>in</strong>ary screen<strong>in</strong>g of selected on-go<strong>in</strong>g activities and guidance for apply<strong>in</strong>g a “climate lens”<br />
on planned and forthcom<strong>in</strong>g activities.<br />
11 The <strong>Climate</strong>-CIVA method (<strong>Climate</strong> Induced Vulnerability Assessment, <strong>in</strong> F<strong>in</strong>nish Ilmasto-KIHA), developed<br />
with<strong>in</strong> the F<strong>in</strong>nish adaptation research programme (ISTO), is a decision-mak<strong>in</strong>g tool that allows systematic risk<br />
mapp<strong>in</strong>g, impact assessment and identification of priority adaptation solutions.<br />
12 The approach can also provide a screen<strong>in</strong>g for disaster risks reduction especially <strong>in</strong> some parts of Ethiopia<br />
where disasters are predom<strong>in</strong>antly associated with droughts and floods.<br />
7
Figure 1. Overall (comb<strong>in</strong>ed) approach 13<br />
The application of the “climate lens” (see Box 1) builds on exist<strong>in</strong>g data and knowledge<br />
about climate variability and projected change <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia, which are presented <strong>in</strong> chapter 2.<br />
With regards to projected climate change, the focus of the scenario analysis is on short- to<br />
mid-term, i.e. max 2030-2050, tak<strong>in</strong>g note of the high vulnerability of the Ethiopian society<br />
to current climate variability and extremes as well as the need to identify concrete<br />
adaptation measures <strong>in</strong> F<strong>in</strong>nish development cooperation that can reduce the immediate<br />
climate risks and be flexibly stepped-up (so called low-regrets/no-regrets adaptation<br />
measures) <strong>in</strong> view of cont<strong>in</strong>ued climate change.<br />
Box. 1. The “<strong>Climate</strong> lens” means apply<strong>in</strong>g a set of questions and subsequent analyses <strong>in</strong> order to<br />
understand and improve a measure’s climate adaptation fitness. The questions are follow<strong>in</strong>g<br />
1. the extent to which a measure (strategy, policy, plan or programme) could be vulnerable<br />
to risks aris<strong>in</strong>g from climate variability and change<br />
2. the extent to which climate change risks have been taken <strong>in</strong>to consideration <strong>in</strong> the course<br />
of the formulation of this measure<br />
3. the extent to which measure activities could <strong>in</strong>advertently <strong>in</strong>crease vulnerability to<br />
climate-related hazards<br />
4. the extent to which measure activities could contribute to <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g the ability of poor<br />
people to cope with and adapt to climate-related hazards<br />
5. where entry po<strong>in</strong>ts exist to alter <strong>in</strong>terventions to address the above<br />
See e.g. OCED Policy Guidance on Integrat<strong>in</strong>g <strong>Climate</strong> Change Adaptation <strong>in</strong>to <strong>Development</strong> <strong>Cooperation</strong><br />
(2009) and ORCHID (Pilot<strong>in</strong>g <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Risk</strong> Screen<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> DFID Bangladesh (2007).<br />
13 The susta<strong>in</strong>able livelihoods aspects used <strong>in</strong> this assessment draw on lessons learned from Crick & Dougherty<br />
(2006) as well as the CRiSTAL and ORCHID approaches (see references and Annex III).<br />
8
Chapter 3 presents a strategic overview of the national framework with regards to climate<br />
vulnerability and adaptation priorities. It also presents on-go<strong>in</strong>g activities by <strong>in</strong>ternational<br />
partners to strengthen adaptive capacity <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia.<br />
This <strong>in</strong>itial climate screen<strong>in</strong>g focused on selected F<strong>in</strong>nish development cooperation projects<br />
<strong>in</strong> the water sector, as presented <strong>in</strong> chapter 4. It provides a prelim<strong>in</strong>ary review of risk that<br />
might be posed to the projects due to climate change or variability and how these risks have<br />
been taken <strong>in</strong>to account dur<strong>in</strong>g project plann<strong>in</strong>g. It also reports whether the projects have<br />
the potential to contribute to livelihoods improvements (be it natural, physical, f<strong>in</strong>ancial,<br />
human and/or social resources) 14 that simultaneously can strengthen the climate adaptive<br />
capacity of local communities.<br />
The key f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>gs of the study and conclusions, with priority areas for follow-up measures are<br />
presented <strong>in</strong> chapter 5.<br />
The study has been conducted by the experts of <strong>Gaia</strong> Consult<strong>in</strong>g Ltd <strong>in</strong> May-August 2009.<br />
The project <strong>in</strong>cluded a preparatory phase dur<strong>in</strong>g which the approach, target country and<br />
sector was identified with the M<strong>in</strong>istry of Foreign Affairs of F<strong>in</strong>land; desk study dur<strong>in</strong>g which<br />
extensive volumes of literature was studied; mission to Addis Ababa which <strong>in</strong>cluded tens of<br />
meet<strong>in</strong>gs with relevant national and <strong>in</strong>ternational partners as well as discussions with<br />
representatives of the selected development cooperation projects, and a f<strong>in</strong>al report<strong>in</strong>g<br />
phase. 15<br />
14 The follow<strong>in</strong>g def<strong>in</strong>itions for livelihoods assets are used: i) Natural resources: the natural resource stock upon<br />
which people rely both directly (i.e. for <strong>in</strong>come or medic<strong>in</strong>e) or <strong>in</strong>directly (i.e. flood control, protection from<br />
storms), ii) Physical resources: the basic <strong>in</strong>frastructure and productive capital for transport, build<strong>in</strong>gs, water<br />
management, energy and communications, iii) F<strong>in</strong>ancial resources: the stocks and flows of money that allow<br />
people to achieve their livelihood objectives, iv) Human resources: the skills, knowledge, capacity and good<br />
health important to the pursuit of livelihoods, and v) Social resources: the formal and <strong>in</strong>formal social<br />
relationships and <strong>in</strong>stitutions from which people draw <strong>in</strong> pursuit of their livelihoods. See e.g. CRiSTAL:<br />
Community-based <strong>Risk</strong> Screen<strong>in</strong>g – Adaptation and Livelihoods<br />
15 Assessment team: Mikko Halonen, Pasi R<strong>in</strong>ne, Jussi Nikula and Al<strong>in</strong>a Pathan. Dur<strong>in</strong>g a field mission <strong>in</strong> June 2009<br />
several key stakeholders were met <strong>in</strong> Addis Ababa, Ethiopia (see Annex IV). Due to time constra<strong>in</strong>ts key regional<br />
and local level project stakeholders (project coord<strong>in</strong>ators and team leaders for selected development projects <strong>in</strong><br />
the water sector) on the regional level were consulted on the phone.<br />
9
2 <strong>Climate</strong> change <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia<br />
2.1 <strong>Climate</strong> patterns and climate variability<br />
Correspond<strong>in</strong>g to the country’s extensive geographical diversity and considerable size <strong>in</strong> the<br />
African Horn 16 , the Ethiopian climate also presents a wide variety differ<strong>in</strong>g features. While<br />
located at latitudes of 4 to 15°N, Ethiopia’s climate <strong>in</strong> the south-eastern and north-eastern<br />
lowland regions is typically tropical but much cooler <strong>in</strong> the large central highland regions of<br />
the country. The climate of the country, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g ra<strong>in</strong>fall is ma<strong>in</strong>ly driven by the seasonal<br />
migration of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and strongly <strong>in</strong>fluenced by the<br />
diverse topography of the country.<br />
Figure 2. Daily mean annual temperature <strong>in</strong> °C (left) and Cumulative mean annual ra<strong>in</strong>fall <strong>in</strong> mm<br />
(right) 17<br />
With regards to temperature, mean annual temperatures <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia vary greatly, from ca.<br />
10°C over the highlands <strong>in</strong> the north-west, central and south-east parts of the country to<br />
about 35°C <strong>in</strong> a small zone <strong>in</strong> the north-east of the country (see Figure 2). In general, the<br />
16 With a land area of about 1.12 million km2, Ethiopia shares boundaries to the east and southeast with Djibouti<br />
and Somalia, to the north with Eritrea, to the south with Kenya, and to the west with the Sudan.<br />
17 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE). 2001. Initial National Communication of Ethiopia to the United<br />
Nations Framework Convention on <strong>Climate</strong> Change (UNFCCC). M<strong>in</strong>istry of Water Resources, National<br />
Meteorological Services Agency. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.<br />
10
hottest period <strong>in</strong> the year is from March to May, while the lowest annual m<strong>in</strong>imum<br />
temperatures occur over the highlands between the months of November and January. 18<br />
Likewise, the ra<strong>in</strong>fall patterns and quantities vary greatly with<strong>in</strong> Ethiopia, with mean annual<br />
ra<strong>in</strong>fall vary<strong>in</strong>g from ca 2000mm <strong>in</strong> some areas <strong>in</strong> the southwest to less than 250mm over<br />
the Afar lowlands <strong>in</strong> the northeast and Ogaden <strong>in</strong> the southeast. As <strong>in</strong>dicated <strong>in</strong> the figure 2<br />
ra<strong>in</strong>fall decreases northwards and eastwards from the high ra<strong>in</strong>fall pocket areas <strong>in</strong> the<br />
Southwest.<br />
Unlike most areas <strong>in</strong> the tropics, which experience one wet season, <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia three dist<strong>in</strong>ct<br />
seasons can be def<strong>in</strong>ed. Most of Ethiopia experiences one ma<strong>in</strong> wet season (called ‘Kiremt’)<br />
from mid-June to mid-September, with ra<strong>in</strong>fall of up to 350mm per month <strong>in</strong> the wettest<br />
regions. 19 Parts of northern and central Ethiopia also have a secondary wet season of<br />
sporadic, and considerably lesser, ra<strong>in</strong>fall from February to May (called the ‘Belg’). The<br />
southern regions of Ethiopia experience two dist<strong>in</strong>ct wet seasons which occur as the ITCZ<br />
passes through this more southern position The March to May ‘Belg’ season is the ma<strong>in</strong><br />
ra<strong>in</strong>fall season yield<strong>in</strong>g 100-200mm per month, followed by a lesser ra<strong>in</strong>fall season <strong>in</strong><br />
October to December called ‘Bega’ (around 100mm per month). The eastern most corner of<br />
Ethiopia receives very little ra<strong>in</strong>fall at any time of year. 20<br />
Dur<strong>in</strong>g the past decades a noticeable ~1 degree <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> mean annual temperature can be<br />
noted. 21 The strong <strong>in</strong>ter-annual and <strong>in</strong>ter-decadal variability <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia’s ra<strong>in</strong>fall makes it<br />
difficult to detect long-term trends. There is not a statistically significant trend <strong>in</strong> observed<br />
mean ra<strong>in</strong>fall <strong>in</strong> any season <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia between 1960 and 2006 (trend analysis of annual<br />
ra<strong>in</strong>fall shows that ra<strong>in</strong>fall has rema<strong>in</strong>ed more or less constant when averaged over the<br />
whole country, see figure 3 below). There are <strong>in</strong>sufficient daily ra<strong>in</strong>fall records available to<br />
identify trends <strong>in</strong> daily ra<strong>in</strong>fall variability. 22<br />
18 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE). 2001.<br />
19 The ma<strong>in</strong> ra<strong>in</strong>y season accounts for about 70% of total annual ra<strong>in</strong>fall, with this proportion vary<strong>in</strong>g with<br />
latitude: it ranges from about 60% <strong>in</strong> the south-west (at Gore) to 78% at Gondr, north of Lake Tana (Conway,<br />
2000).<br />
20 <strong>Climate</strong> Change National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA), The Federal Democratic Republic of<br />
Ethiopia, M<strong>in</strong>istry of water resources, National Meteorological Agency, 2007<br />
21 See e.g. Conway, D et al (2007) not<strong>in</strong>g a ~0.5 degree <strong>in</strong>crease s<strong>in</strong>ce the early 1960s, UNDP (2008) not<strong>in</strong>g a<br />
mean annual temperature <strong>in</strong>crease by 1.3°C between 1960 and 2006.<br />
22 UNDP <strong>Climate</strong> Change Country Profiles, Ethiopia (2008).<br />
11
Figure 3. Year to Year Variability of Annual Ra<strong>in</strong>fall and trend over Ethiopia (<strong>in</strong> Normalized Deviation).<br />
Source NAPA<br />
While trend analysis of annual ra<strong>in</strong>fall shows that average annual ra<strong>in</strong>fall rema<strong>in</strong>ed fairly<br />
constant <strong>in</strong> the second half of the 20 th century when averaged over the whole country, some<br />
regional longer-term trends can be dist<strong>in</strong>guished (see figure 4 below), <strong>in</strong>dicat<strong>in</strong>g a decl<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g<br />
trend <strong>in</strong> the northern and south western parts of Ethiopia and <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g trend <strong>in</strong> central<br />
Ethiopia. 23 On shorter term both upward and downward trends can be <strong>in</strong>dentified <strong>in</strong><br />
different parts of the country, depend<strong>in</strong>g strongly on the specific region that is be<strong>in</strong>g studied<br />
and <strong>in</strong> particular the period of time that is covered. 24<br />
Figure 4. Inter-annual variability of annual ra<strong>in</strong>fall over Ethiopia (Federal Democratic Republic of<br />
Ethiopia (FDRE), 2001).<br />
23 A study by Verd<strong>in</strong> et al (2005) which looked at seasonal trends <strong>in</strong> ra<strong>in</strong>fall found that, nationally, the Kremt ra<strong>in</strong>s<br />
have been fairly consistent s<strong>in</strong>ce the 1960s but that the Belg ra<strong>in</strong>s have been decreas<strong>in</strong>g consistently s<strong>in</strong>ce 1996.<br />
Verd<strong>in</strong> et al state that the decrease <strong>in</strong> the Belg ra<strong>in</strong>s may be part of a larger set of climate changes <strong>in</strong> the Indian<br />
Ocean bas<strong>in</strong>.<br />
24 Multiple sources of evidence converge on a post-1997 tendency towards lower ra<strong>in</strong>fall, especially dur<strong>in</strong>g the<br />
Belg (March-May) season. This f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>g appears to hold for many parts of eastern Africa. Source: Funk et al. (2005).<br />
12
Regard<strong>in</strong>g experienced climate variability and <strong>in</strong> particular extremes, major droughts and<br />
floods have hit Ethiopia throughout its history (see figures 5 and 6 below).<br />
Figure 5. Flood hazard frequency <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia dur<strong>in</strong>g past 30 years. 25<br />
For example, the years 1961, 1964, 1967, 1977 and 1996 and 2006 were very wet, while the<br />
years 1962, 1965 and 1984 and 2002 years were extremely dry. It is good to note, that e.g.<br />
floods do not only occur dur<strong>in</strong>g the wet season, as widespread flood<strong>in</strong>g occurred across<br />
Ethiopia dur<strong>in</strong>g the October to February dry season of 1997/98. 26<br />
25 Mathewos Hunde Early Warn<strong>in</strong>g and Response Directorate, DMFSS, MoARD. January 15, 2008. Presentation<br />
“<strong>Climate</strong> Change and Ethiopian Agriculture” at the first Ethiopian National <strong>Climate</strong> Change Conference, January<br />
15, 2009 UNECA Conference Center . Addis Ababa<br />
26 Considered the wettest dry season on record (Conway, 2000).<br />
13
Figure 6. Drought hazard frequency <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia dur<strong>in</strong>g past 30 years. 27<br />
Analysis of currently available data do not yet show any marked longer-term trends <strong>in</strong><br />
ra<strong>in</strong>fall <strong>in</strong>tensity and climate extremes despite commonly expressed concerns by most<br />
stakeholders <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia. 28 However, recent studies <strong>in</strong>dicate an <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g amount of<br />
woredas 29 be<strong>in</strong>g affected by droughts and/or floods dur<strong>in</strong>g the past years. 30 Tak<strong>in</strong>g note of<br />
the climatic risks associated <strong>in</strong> particular with extreme events and <strong>in</strong>tense ra<strong>in</strong>fall, it is of<br />
vital importance to cont<strong>in</strong>ue analys<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> more detail potential changes <strong>in</strong> extreme events<br />
trends <strong>in</strong> different parts of Ethiopia.<br />
2.2 <strong>Climate</strong> change projections for Ethiopia <strong>in</strong> the 21 st century<br />
Regard<strong>in</strong>g future climate change implications for Ethiopia, climate models <strong>in</strong>dicate that<br />
temperatures will <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> the future, although the extent of the temperature <strong>in</strong>crease<br />
varies significantly between different models. Results from Intergovernmental Panel on<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, look<strong>in</strong>g at regional climate projections,<br />
27 Mathewos Hunde Early Warn<strong>in</strong>g and Response Directorate, DMFSS, MoARD. January 15, 2008. Presentation<br />
“<strong>Climate</strong> Change and Ethiopian Agriculture” at the first Ethiopian National <strong>Climate</strong> Change Conference, January<br />
15, 2009 UNECA Conference Center . Addis Ababa<br />
28 Dur<strong>in</strong>g the expert mission <strong>in</strong> June 2009, national and regional authorities communicated a common<br />
understand<strong>in</strong>g of <strong>in</strong>creased frequency of extreme events dur<strong>in</strong>g the past 5-10 years. However, solid basel<strong>in</strong>e<br />
<strong>in</strong>formation on several other climatic parameters (such us e.g. heat waves, cold days/nights, storms, wild fires,<br />
etc) is lack<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
29 Adm<strong>in</strong>istrative entity <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia (equivalent to a district).<br />
30 Mathewos Hunde Early Warn<strong>in</strong>g and Response Directorate, DMFSS, MoARD. January 15, 2008.<br />
14
notes that warm<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> Africa is very likely to be larger than the global annual mean warm<strong>in</strong>g<br />
throughout the cont<strong>in</strong>ent and <strong>in</strong> all seasons, with drier subtropical regions warm<strong>in</strong>g more<br />
than the moister tropics.<br />
In recent scenario work conducted for Ethiopia for the period 2040-2069 temperatures are<br />
projected to <strong>in</strong>crease between 1°C and 3°C. For the period 2070-2099 the scenarios and<br />
models suggest temperatures <strong>in</strong>creases of 2°C to 4°C, with the possibility that the <strong>in</strong>crease<br />
may be as high as 6°C (see figure 7).<br />
Figure 7. Annual mean temperature anomaly - trend <strong>in</strong> annual temperature for the recent past and<br />
projected future (values shown are anomalies, relative to the 1970-1999 mean <strong>Climate</strong>). Black curve<br />
show the mean of observed data from 1960 to 2006, brown curve show the median (solid l<strong>in</strong>e) and<br />
range (shad<strong>in</strong>g) of model simulations of recent climate across an ensemble of 15 models. Colored<br />
l<strong>in</strong>es from 2006 onwards show the median (solid l<strong>in</strong>e) and range (shad<strong>in</strong>g) of the ensemble<br />
projections of climate under three emissions scenarios. Colored bars on the right-hand side of the<br />
projections summarize the range of mean 2090-2100 climates simulated by the 15 models for each<br />
emissions scenario (source UNDP <strong>Climate</strong> Change Country Profiles, Ethiopia)<br />
These projections are rather similar to modell<strong>in</strong>g results that served the elaboration of the<br />
NAPA, <strong>in</strong>dicat<strong>in</strong>g warm<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> all regions <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia dur<strong>in</strong>g all seasons <strong>in</strong> the future (figure 8).<br />
Another recent emission scenario exercise, which produced averaged results for five<br />
geographical regions of Ethiopia: Central, East, North, Southwest and the whole of Ethiopia,<br />
projects annual warm<strong>in</strong>g for the whole of Ethiopia by the 2050s of 2.2°C with a range of<br />
1.4°C – 2.9°C and the regional differences <strong>in</strong> warm<strong>in</strong>g relatively modest – with<strong>in</strong> tenths of a<br />
degree centigrade. 31<br />
The temperature <strong>in</strong>crease, which can be projected with rather high confidence, can be<br />
expected to also <strong>in</strong>crease the frequency of other, directly temperature bound events, such<br />
as the frequency of hot days and nights as well as heat waves. It is important to note that<br />
higher temperatures will probably also <strong>in</strong>crease the rates of evaporation and, assum<strong>in</strong>g<br />
other <strong>in</strong>fluences rema<strong>in</strong> unchanged, <strong>in</strong>crease surface water evaporation and affect soil<br />
moisture balances.<br />
31 Look<strong>in</strong>g at a total of 18 Global <strong>Climate</strong> Models, analyzed with two IPCC SRES-A2 and B1 emissions scenarios.<br />
Conway, D et al (2007).<br />
15
Figure 8. Composite (average of 19 Global <strong>Climate</strong> Models/GCMs) change <strong>in</strong> temperature (oC) relative<br />
to 1961-1990 normal for A1B emission scenario. Source NAPA.<br />
With regards to changes <strong>in</strong> precipitation there is<br />
likely to be an <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> annual mean ra<strong>in</strong>fall <strong>in</strong><br />
Eastern Africa. 32 However, <strong>in</strong> comparison to<br />
temperature, ra<strong>in</strong>fall projections for Ethiopia are a<br />
lot less certa<strong>in</strong>. While show<strong>in</strong>g a tendency for slightly<br />
wetter conditions <strong>in</strong> the future (figure 9, provid<strong>in</strong>g<br />
one projection from NAPA), both <strong>in</strong>creases and<br />
decreases <strong>in</strong> ra<strong>in</strong>fall are predicted by the different<br />
models and scenarios, with considerable regional and<br />
seasonal differences.<br />
Figure 9. One projection for future change <strong>in</strong> annual ra<strong>in</strong>fall. Composite percentage change (%) <strong>in</strong><br />
ra<strong>in</strong>fall relative to 1961-1990 normal for A1B emission scenario. Source NAPA.<br />
The considerable regional and seasonal differences between climate model simulations of<br />
future ra<strong>in</strong>fall conditions warrants caution <strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong>terpret<strong>in</strong>g the results. The usage of a range of<br />
scenarios to represent the uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty <strong>in</strong> future climate change impacts has been identified<br />
as one useful option to deal with these uncerta<strong>in</strong>ties <strong>in</strong> adaptation decision mak<strong>in</strong>g. 33 The<br />
wide range of potential ra<strong>in</strong>fall changes (regionally and seasonally) is presented <strong>in</strong> the<br />
projections is highlighted <strong>in</strong> the diversity of results <strong>in</strong> different scenario work. 34<br />
32 IPCC fourth assessment report, 2007.<br />
33 Uncerta<strong>in</strong>ties <strong>in</strong> ra<strong>in</strong>fall projection are partly expla<strong>in</strong>ed by: i) difficulties of GCMs to reproduce the mechanisms<br />
responsible for precipitation, ii) model limitations to simulate the different teleconnections and feedback<br />
mechanisms, which are responsible for ra<strong>in</strong>fall variability <strong>in</strong> Africa, and iii) other factors that complicate African<br />
climatology (e.g. at present there are no clear <strong>in</strong>dications of future behaviour <strong>in</strong> El Niño, associated with dry wet<br />
seasons <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia, and the Indian Ocean Dipole, which is sometimes associated with flood events dur<strong>in</strong>g<br />
October to December, and their possible <strong>in</strong>fluence on Ethiopian climate. Conway, D et al (2007). In general<br />
Model simulations show wide disagreements <strong>in</strong> projected changes <strong>in</strong> the amplitude of future El Niño events<br />
(Christensen et al., 2007). East Africa’s seasonal ra<strong>in</strong>fall can be strongly <strong>in</strong>fluenced by ENSO, and this contributes<br />
to uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty <strong>in</strong> climate projections, particularly <strong>in</strong> the future <strong>in</strong>ter-annual variability, for this region.<br />
34 See e.g. Conway, D et al (2007).<br />
16
Some models also <strong>in</strong>dicate an <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> the proportion of total ra<strong>in</strong>fall that falls <strong>in</strong> ‘heavy’<br />
events, with annual changes rang<strong>in</strong>g from -1 to +18%. The largest <strong>in</strong>creases are projected for<br />
the periods July-September and October-December. These models are broadly consistent <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong>dicat<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>creases <strong>in</strong> the magnitude of 1- and 5-day ra<strong>in</strong>fall maxima. The annual <strong>in</strong>creases<br />
arise largely due to <strong>in</strong>creases <strong>in</strong> October-December. The changes <strong>in</strong> maxima <strong>in</strong> 1-day events<br />
<strong>in</strong> October-December range from 0 to +29mm and -4 to +40mm <strong>in</strong> 5-day events. 35 The<br />
overall uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty about the future precipitation patterns, changes <strong>in</strong> both amount and<br />
tim<strong>in</strong>g of ra<strong>in</strong>fall <strong>in</strong> different parts of Ethiopia will exacerbate the already considerable<br />
challenges with high ra<strong>in</strong>fall variability.<br />
Tak<strong>in</strong>g note of all these projected trends, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g a potential <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> climate extremes,<br />
Ethiopia will have to f<strong>in</strong>d ways to adapt to a highly unpredictable climate. Some recent<br />
studies of river bas<strong>in</strong>s <strong>in</strong> Eastern Africa, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g Ethiopia show a tendency for higher flows<br />
due to higher ra<strong>in</strong>fall, i.e. <strong>in</strong>creases <strong>in</strong> ra<strong>in</strong>fall big enough to offset greater losses due to<br />
evaporation. 36 While flood characteristic have not been well studied it is very likely that<br />
flood frequency and magnitude will <strong>in</strong>crease under such conditions.<br />
While temperature <strong>in</strong>crease can be projected with a rather high confidence many of the<br />
other climatic parameters rema<strong>in</strong> uncerta<strong>in</strong>, with considerable regional and seasonal<br />
variations to be expected for Ethiopia. The national response to the already experienced<br />
changes, as well as the longer-term adaptation strategy must be able to propose a wide set<br />
of solid climate adaptation measures, that can cope with a wide range of climatic patterns<br />
and flexibly stepped-up where and whenever required.<br />
35 UNDP <strong>Climate</strong> Change Country Profiles, Ethiopia (2008).<br />
36 Conway, D et al (2007).<br />
17
3 <strong>Climate</strong> vulnerability and adaptation priorities<br />
<strong>in</strong> Ethiopia<br />
3.1 Vulnerability to climate variability and change<br />
Ethiopia is exceptionally vulnerable 37 to climate variability and weather extremes such as droughts,<br />
floods, heavy ra<strong>in</strong>s, frost and heat waves. While the historical social and economic impacts of<br />
climatic hazards <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia have not been well documented, the exist<strong>in</strong>g records on major droughts<br />
and floods (see chapter 2) give a clear <strong>in</strong>dication of the overall high climate vulnerability of the<br />
country. These recurrent extreme weather events have caused huge loss of lives and property,<br />
resulted <strong>in</strong> migration of people and disrupted livelihoods <strong>in</strong> different parts of Ethiopia.<br />
Look<strong>in</strong>g at the already experienced climate variability as well as projected climate change, a<br />
multitude of major adverse impacts has been identified, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g:<br />
- food <strong>in</strong>security aris<strong>in</strong>g from occurrences of droughts and floods;<br />
- outbreak of diseases such as malaria, dengue fever, water borne diseases (such as cholera,<br />
dysentery) associated with floods and respiratory diseases associated with droughts;<br />
- land degradation due to heavy ra<strong>in</strong>fall;<br />
- damage to communication, road and other <strong>in</strong>frastructure by floods;<br />
- shifts <strong>in</strong> species distributions, <strong>in</strong>creased evaporation and losses of wetlands due to<br />
temperature <strong>in</strong>crease and changes <strong>in</strong> ra<strong>in</strong>fall patterns;<br />
- disruptions <strong>in</strong> energy production due to changes <strong>in</strong> ra<strong>in</strong>fall patterns<br />
Obviously many of the impacts are driven simultaneously by other factors (e.g. land degradation by<br />
deforestation, low agricultural productivity, lack<strong>in</strong>g land ownership frameworks, etc) but the climate<br />
change <strong>in</strong>duces a critical additional stress on already vulnerable livelihoods <strong>in</strong> many parts <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia.<br />
The very high dependence on ra<strong>in</strong> fed agriculture, which is very sensitive to climate variability, is one<br />
of the ma<strong>in</strong> causes of vulnerability <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia. The overall underdevelopment of the water-sector is<br />
another critical component contribut<strong>in</strong>g to climate vulnerability. Despite the fact that Ethiopia has<br />
substantial water resources, these have neither been developed nor managed well, leav<strong>in</strong>g<br />
populations vulnerable to the destructive impacts of water and climate variability, while not<br />
provid<strong>in</strong>g benefits from effectively harness<strong>in</strong>g the water and land resources.<br />
In addition, several other contribut<strong>in</strong>g factors can be identified, such as low health service coverage,<br />
high population growth rate, low overall economic development level, low adaptive capacity,<br />
37 See e.g. Yohe, G., E. Malone, A. Brenkert, M. Schles<strong>in</strong>ger, H. Meij, X. X<strong>in</strong>g, and D. Lee. 2006. “A Synthetic Assessment of<br />
the Global Distribution of Vulnerability to <strong>Climate</strong> Change from the IPCC Perspective that Reflects Exposure and Adaptive<br />
Capacity.” Palisades, New York: CIESIN (Center for International Earth Science Information Network), Columbia University.<br />
http://sedac.cies<strong>in</strong>.columbia.edu/mva/ccv/<br />
18
<strong>in</strong>adequate road <strong>in</strong>frastructure <strong>in</strong> drought prone areas, weak <strong>in</strong>stitutions and lack of awareness,<br />
which all contribute to the exceptionally high level of climate vulnerability of the country.<br />
The vulnerability assessments that have so far been carried out po<strong>in</strong>t out agriculture, water and<br />
health as the most vulnerable sectors <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia. Smallholder ra<strong>in</strong>-fed farmers and pastoralists<br />
belong to the most vulnerable population groups. 38 However, currently only limited data is available<br />
on the impacts as well as the actual adaptive capacity of local communities <strong>in</strong> different parts of<br />
Ethiopia. It should be noted, that <strong>in</strong> some cases, <strong>in</strong> some areas, e.g. <strong>in</strong>creased precipitation may also<br />
have some benign impacts.<br />
Ethiopia’s five-year PASDEP outl<strong>in</strong>es development and growth aspirations until 2009/10. It also<br />
clearly suggests that many of the key sectors, which should contribute to reach<strong>in</strong>g Ethiopian national<br />
development objectives, are highly sensitive to climate variability and/or change (see table 1).<br />
Table 1. The table <strong>in</strong>dicates a broad categorization of the ma<strong>in</strong> sectors conta<strong>in</strong>ed <strong>in</strong> the PASDEP and a review<br />
of these aga<strong>in</strong>st climate change scenarios shows that the key climate-sensitive sectors <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia are<br />
agriculture and water resources. In addition, <strong>in</strong>frastructure and health are also highly sensitive. 39<br />
3.2 National adaptation priorities and capacity needs<br />
The Ethiopian NAPA 40 (National Adaptation Programme of Action of Ethiopia, 2007) outl<strong>in</strong>es the<br />
national adaptation framework and identifies a set of priority action, which should guide all<br />
adaptation efforts <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia. In addition to the NAPA, there are a number of other national policy<br />
<strong>in</strong>itiatives, sectoral policies, programs and strategies that may directly or <strong>in</strong>directly address climate<br />
change adaptation, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g the PASDEP, Environmental policy of Ethiopia, Agriculture and Rural<br />
<strong>Development</strong> Policy and Strategy, Water resources <strong>Management</strong> Policy, Health Sector <strong>Development</strong><br />
Policy and Program as well as the National Policy on Disaster Prevention and Preparedness.<br />
38<br />
The arid, semiarid and the dry sub-humid parts of the country are affected most by drought..<br />
39<br />
Conway, D et al (2007).<br />
40<br />
By summer 2009, some 40 LDCs (Least Developed Countries) have prepared their NAPAs, with a view to guide national<br />
priority adaptation measures and catalyze required fund<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
19
Table 2. List of NAPA priority projects.<br />
In Ethiopia, traditional and contemporary cop<strong>in</strong>g mechanisms to climate variability and extremes<br />
<strong>in</strong>clude changes <strong>in</strong> cropp<strong>in</strong>g and plant<strong>in</strong>g practices, reduction of consumption levels, collection of<br />
wild foods, use of <strong>in</strong>ter-household transfers and loans and <strong>in</strong>creased petty commodity production. In<br />
addition, temporary and/or permanent migration, gra<strong>in</strong> storage, sale of assets such as livestock and<br />
agricultural tools, mortgag<strong>in</strong>g of land, credit from merchants and money lenders, use of early<br />
warn<strong>in</strong>g system, food appeal/aid have been part of traditional ways to secure livelihoods when<br />
adapt<strong>in</strong>g to climate variability.<br />
The NAPA identified <strong>in</strong> total some 40 projects, with the priority ones broadly focus<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> areas of<br />
human and <strong>in</strong>stitutional capacity build<strong>in</strong>g, improv<strong>in</strong>g natural resource management through<br />
community participation, enhanc<strong>in</strong>g irrigation agriculture and water harvest<strong>in</strong>g, strengthen<strong>in</strong>g early<br />
warn<strong>in</strong>g systems and awareness ris<strong>in</strong>g (see table 2). The NAPA stresses the importance of <strong>in</strong>tegrated<br />
management approaches, <strong>in</strong> watershed management and management of land use.<br />
The PASDEP also identifies several policy measures that should reduce climate vulnerability, e.g.<br />
related to the development of water resources, such as small-scale irrigation and water harvest<strong>in</strong>g<br />
as well as on-farm diversification, which should help <strong>in</strong>sulate the agriculture sector from droughts.<br />
20
However, <strong>in</strong> the near future, ra<strong>in</strong> fed agriculture will cont<strong>in</strong>ue to dom<strong>in</strong>ate Ethiopia’s agricultural<br />
production mak<strong>in</strong>g it highly vulnerable for climate variability and change.<br />
To date, the NAPA has not succeeded <strong>in</strong> catalyz<strong>in</strong>g concerted efforts and fund<strong>in</strong>g for implement<strong>in</strong>g<br />
“adaptation specific” projects. While some donor funded activities, fall<strong>in</strong>g broadly under the<br />
umbrella of the NAPA priorities are currently on-go<strong>in</strong>g or planned, a clear nationally driven<br />
adaptation project portfolio is still wait<strong>in</strong>g to get launched.<br />
Despite climate change hav<strong>in</strong>g recently risen onto the Ethiopian national policy agenda 41 , several<br />
barriers rema<strong>in</strong>, hamper<strong>in</strong>g the implementation of pro-adaptation measures on national, regional<br />
and local levels.<br />
A strong <strong>in</strong>stitutional ownership of climate policy (be it adaptation or mitigation) is still lack<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong><br />
Ethiopia, with the absence of a clear home-base for climate policy and decisive leadership for policy<br />
coord<strong>in</strong>ation and cross-sectoral communication. The recent establishment of a “National Forum on<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> Change” may help to overcome some of these barriers, possibly lead<strong>in</strong>g to the elaboration<br />
of a national climate strategy. An active national climate forum could also serve to overcome other<br />
critical barriers related to low overall level of environmental awareness and lack of efficient climate<br />
outreach mechanisms to local communities.<br />
The currently available body of knowledge, despite significant gaps, could be used to consistently<br />
guide overall policy development and <strong>in</strong>vestments <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia towards lower climate vulnerability.<br />
This will imply among other th<strong>in</strong>gs diversify<strong>in</strong>g the energy production portfolio (currently rely<strong>in</strong>g<br />
almost exclusively on hydropower) and gradually <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g the share of non-agricultural livelihoods,<br />
i.e. creat<strong>in</strong>g employment <strong>in</strong> economic activities less directly dependant on climatic patterns.<br />
In the immediate future, specific data gaps must be filled and <strong>in</strong>formation services improved <strong>in</strong> order<br />
to protect Ethiopian communities from current climate variability and on-go<strong>in</strong>g climate change. This<br />
means fill<strong>in</strong>g gaps and knowledge about already experienced climate variability and changes and<br />
collect<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>formation and understand<strong>in</strong>g how local communities have so far been able to adapt.<br />
This means learn<strong>in</strong>g from past experiences and understand<strong>in</strong>g that just cop<strong>in</strong>g is not enough but<br />
reduc<strong>in</strong>g poverty, catalyz<strong>in</strong>g susta<strong>in</strong>able growth and improv<strong>in</strong>g livelihoods, <strong>in</strong> spite of chang<strong>in</strong>g<br />
climate.<br />
Tak<strong>in</strong>g note of Ethiopia’s extensive geographical diversity, considerable size and the climate diversity<br />
there is a need for country specific climate projections that would facilitate solid risk proof<strong>in</strong>g of<br />
major regional and local level development and <strong>in</strong>vestment decisions. 42 Due to lack<strong>in</strong>g capacities and<br />
41 The Ethiopian Prime M<strong>in</strong>ister has <strong>in</strong> 2009 on several occasions, on national and <strong>in</strong>ternational forums, expressed the need<br />
to address climate challenges, highlight<strong>in</strong>g the responsibility of developed countries <strong>in</strong> urgent mitigation efforts as well as<br />
<strong>in</strong> assist<strong>in</strong>g develop<strong>in</strong>g countries <strong>in</strong> adaptation.<br />
42 The currently available climate change projections for Africa are very uncerta<strong>in</strong>, especially concern<strong>in</strong>g local and temporal<br />
details. For impact and vulnerability assessments, they can only provide an <strong>in</strong>dication of the range of possible climate<br />
21
esources, no detailed national modell<strong>in</strong>g and analyses are currently available. 43 Unless Ethiopia<br />
manages to establish an adequate number of cadres that can spearhead climate change issues and<br />
help apply climate risk management tools <strong>in</strong> policy plann<strong>in</strong>g and decision mak<strong>in</strong>g, implementation of<br />
adaptation will rema<strong>in</strong> slow. Lessons learned from other countries po<strong>in</strong>t out the importance of<br />
ensur<strong>in</strong>g that climate risk considerations and ma<strong>in</strong>stream<strong>in</strong>g are particularly well rooted <strong>in</strong> national<br />
economic plann<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> change related <strong>in</strong>formation is be<strong>in</strong>g produced <strong>in</strong> several activities by numerous stakeholders.<br />
The <strong>in</strong>stitutional capacity to manage and share the climate <strong>in</strong>formation is still weak. There is a need<br />
to effectively collate and coord<strong>in</strong>ate these efforts as well as improve the utilization of the exist<strong>in</strong>g<br />
climate <strong>in</strong>formation. E.g. the M<strong>in</strong>istry of Water Resources is currently enhanc<strong>in</strong>g its capacity to<br />
model ra<strong>in</strong>fall and predict flood<strong>in</strong>g, which should improve preparedness for weather extremes and<br />
serve adaptation strengthen<strong>in</strong>g on local level. For this to happen, <strong>in</strong>formation shar<strong>in</strong>g between<br />
sectors and different levels of authorities must cont<strong>in</strong>ue to improve.<br />
While fund<strong>in</strong>g rema<strong>in</strong>s a critical challenge hamper<strong>in</strong>g implementation of adaptation specific projects,<br />
several on-go<strong>in</strong>g national development programmes and projects are actually strengthen<strong>in</strong>g the<br />
adaptive capacity of the Ethiopian society. The <strong>in</strong>ternational community should support Ethiopia <strong>in</strong><br />
its development efforts and ensure that all development cooperation also contributes to proadaptation<br />
(and pro-mitigation) progress <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia, <strong>in</strong> l<strong>in</strong>e with Ethiopian development objectives.<br />
3.3 <strong>Climate</strong> ma<strong>in</strong>stream<strong>in</strong>g by <strong>in</strong>ternational development<br />
cooperation partners<br />
The development cooperation partners of Ethiopia (<strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>ternational organizations, donor<br />
agencies, civil society organizations etc) are generally aware of the challenges posed by climate<br />
change to Ethiopian development aspirations.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> change (adaptation and mitigation) features well e.g. <strong>in</strong> some of the World Bank funded<br />
activities such as the Susta<strong>in</strong>able Land <strong>Management</strong> (SLM) programme. UNDP has focused <strong>in</strong> its<br />
climate work on natural resource management and strengthen<strong>in</strong>g cop<strong>in</strong>g measures on local level,<br />
which directly contribute to reduced climate vulnerability. DFID has, among other activities, dur<strong>in</strong>g<br />
several years provided support on climate data, climate risk identification and policy advice e.g. most<br />
recently on the economics of climate change through the advisory by Sir Nicolas Stern.<br />
Some <strong>in</strong>ternational organizations, <strong>in</strong> cooperation with national partners, are <strong>in</strong>vestigat<strong>in</strong>g the<br />
potential for the Clean <strong>Development</strong> Mechanism (CDM). However, many barriers are still hamper<strong>in</strong>g<br />
changes. Müller, Christoph: <strong>Climate</strong> change impact on Sub-Saharan Africa : an overview and analysis of scenarios and<br />
models / Christoph Müller. – Bonn : DIE, 2009 – (Discussion Paper / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik ; 3/2009).<br />
43 See e.g. the Nile Bas<strong>in</strong> Initiative and ENTRO (Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office) <strong>Climate</strong> Change Approach Paper,<br />
June 2009, which identifies a need for regional predictions that would allow analyz<strong>in</strong>g e.g. potential climate change<br />
implications for river flows, sedimentation levels, hydropower generation, etc.<br />
22
the progress and to date no CDM projects have been registered <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia. 44 Tak<strong>in</strong>g note that<br />
susta<strong>in</strong>able land and water management will among a.o. require considerable reforestation and recultivation<br />
activities, several stakeholders have expressed an <strong>in</strong>terest to <strong>in</strong>vestigate the potential for<br />
ga<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g additional project f<strong>in</strong>ance through carbon markets. The climate negotiations at Copenhagen<br />
<strong>in</strong> December 2009 should provide guidance on LULUCF (Land use, land-use change and forestry) and<br />
REDD/REDD+ (Reduc<strong>in</strong>g Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) activities and<br />
<strong>in</strong>crease the possibilities for carbon fund<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia. Gett<strong>in</strong>g access to this additional layer of<br />
fund<strong>in</strong>g will however, require further decisive <strong>in</strong>stitutional and capacity strengthen<strong>in</strong>g efforts.<br />
The German Technical <strong>Cooperation</strong> (GTZ) has a long history on susta<strong>in</strong>able development activities <strong>in</strong><br />
Ethiopia and is very committed to various activities, <strong>in</strong> particular under the SLM. The GTZ funded<br />
activities will also <strong>in</strong>clude specific climate screen<strong>in</strong>g exercises as well as tra<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g activities dur<strong>in</strong>g<br />
2009. Several NGOs, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g OXFAM have promoted the establishment of the National <strong>Climate</strong><br />
Change Forum, which could serve as a driver for climate ma<strong>in</strong>stream<strong>in</strong>g on national level. With<strong>in</strong> the<br />
Nile Bas<strong>in</strong> Initiative, ENTRO (Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office) has taken an active approach to<br />
<strong>in</strong>tegrate climate risks <strong>in</strong>to its work. Japan has also recently pledged significant support for a climate<br />
adaptation programme <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia.<br />
While there is clearly a great <strong>in</strong>terest among the <strong>in</strong>ternational partners to better <strong>in</strong>tegrate climate<br />
risks <strong>in</strong>to their development cooperation, systematic climate ma<strong>in</strong>stream<strong>in</strong>g is only <strong>in</strong> its <strong>in</strong>itial<br />
phases <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia. Mirror<strong>in</strong>g the lack of a strong national focal po<strong>in</strong>t for climate change, the efforts<br />
by the <strong>in</strong>ternational community on climate ma<strong>in</strong>stream<strong>in</strong>g have been rather patchy. A stronger<br />
coord<strong>in</strong>ation and shar<strong>in</strong>g of climate <strong>in</strong>formation and lessons learned would accelerate the<br />
<strong>in</strong>tegration of climate risks <strong>in</strong>to development cooperation. The on-go<strong>in</strong>g UNDAF (United Nations<br />
<strong>Development</strong> Assistance Framework, 2007-2011) mid-term review, to be completed <strong>in</strong> summer 2009,<br />
should highlight the need to strengthen climate change related actions under the UNDAF. This would<br />
provide a required <strong>in</strong>centive for more coord<strong>in</strong>ated efforts by <strong>in</strong>ternational partners.<br />
The <strong>Climate</strong> Information for <strong>Development</strong> <strong>in</strong> Africa <strong>in</strong>itiative, ClimDev-Africa 45 has received <strong>in</strong>itial<br />
fund<strong>in</strong>g (<strong>in</strong>cl. AfDB, DFID, Norway, Sweden, EU) for launch<strong>in</strong>g its activities, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g fund<strong>in</strong>g to its<br />
policy arm i.e. the African <strong>Climate</strong> Policy Center (ACPC) to be established. Despite be<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> its startup<br />
phase, this regional <strong>in</strong>itiative can be expected to provide important climate <strong>in</strong>formation and<br />
lessons learned from other African countries. It is important still to note, that despite evident data<br />
and capacity gaps <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia, the currently available data on climate change provides already a<br />
sufficient basis for national authorities 46 as well as <strong>in</strong>ternational partners to <strong>in</strong>itiate climate<br />
ma<strong>in</strong>stream<strong>in</strong>g of their development efforts.<br />
44<br />
By 1 July only one project was <strong>in</strong> validation (reforestation project <strong>in</strong> the region Southern Nations with some 180 000 CERs<br />
expected by 2012). The UNEP Risoe CDM/JI Pipel<strong>in</strong>e Overview, 1.7.2009. Prepared by J Fenhann: www.CDMpipel<strong>in</strong>e.org<br />
45<br />
A jo<strong>in</strong>t <strong>in</strong>itiative of the African Union Commission (AUC), the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA)<br />
and the African <strong>Development</strong> Bank (AfDB)<br />
46<br />
The priorities of the national policies, sector strategies and programmes of the Ethiopian government are primarily<br />
targeted at promot<strong>in</strong>g rural and agricultural development and poverty reduction. Consequently, climate change and<br />
adaptation issues are often treated <strong>in</strong>directly <strong>in</strong> sector specific policies and programmes s<strong>in</strong>ce climate impacts are<br />
considered as a sub-component of the overall development goal.<br />
23
As there is a need to ensure that all relevant development cooperation activities are climate proofed,<br />
it is also important to highlight that many of the on-go<strong>in</strong>g cooperation efforts cover<strong>in</strong>g e.g the<br />
management of water resources, land use management, <strong>in</strong>stitutional strengthen<strong>in</strong>g, are already<br />
contribut<strong>in</strong>g to strengthened climate adaptive capacity, as they improve local livelihoods and make<br />
them less vulnerable current climate variability. In many cases successful adaptation does not<br />
necessarily require totally new strategies and technologies developed specifically for adaptation.<br />
However, climate ma<strong>in</strong>stream<strong>in</strong>g will require policy leadership and a climate sensitive plann<strong>in</strong>g<br />
approach & framework, which explicitly takes <strong>in</strong>to account ris<strong>in</strong>g risks of climate variability and<br />
change and their implications for development projects and <strong>in</strong>vestment decisions. 47 The climate<br />
sensitive plann<strong>in</strong>g approach also provides the basis to identify synergies between key development<br />
policy areas, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g poverty reduction, food security, disaster prevention and management,<br />
climate adaptation and mitigation etc.<br />
47 As noted <strong>in</strong> footnote 6, climatic shocks can pose a direct threat to <strong>in</strong>vestments from effects on <strong>in</strong>frastructure, <strong>in</strong>direct<br />
effects through dim<strong>in</strong>ished performance, and outright <strong>in</strong>appropriateness of <strong>in</strong>vestments <strong>in</strong> the face of climatic trends.<br />
Burton, I. and M. van Aalst (2004).<br />
24
4 Prelim<strong>in</strong>ary climate screen<strong>in</strong>g of selected<br />
development cooperation projects <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia<br />
4.1 Overview of the selected projects and screen<strong>in</strong>g process<br />
While the previous chapters have provided a strategic overview of the national and sectoral level<br />
climate vulnerabilities and adaptive capacity (apply<strong>in</strong>g the “climate lens” on national and sectoral<br />
levels), this chapter focuses on an <strong>in</strong>itial climate screen<strong>in</strong>g of selected F<strong>in</strong>nish development<br />
cooperation projects <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia.<br />
F<strong>in</strong>nish development cooperation <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia has a strong focus on the education and water sectors.<br />
F<strong>in</strong>land has already a long history of development cooperation <strong>in</strong> the water sector, which <strong>in</strong> many<br />
aspects is at the nexus of climate change and Ethiopian development challenges. Consequently, at<br />
the project level, the <strong>in</strong>itial climate screen<strong>in</strong>g covers 3 development cooperation projects <strong>in</strong> the<br />
water sector funded or co-funded by the government of F<strong>in</strong>land. Selection of the projects for this<br />
<strong>in</strong>itial climate screen<strong>in</strong>g was done <strong>in</strong> consultation with the representatives of the MoFa. 48<br />
Two of the selected projects focus on water supply and sanitation (and hygiene/environment) <strong>in</strong><br />
local communities as well as on the communities’ ability to implement and ma<strong>in</strong>ta<strong>in</strong> susta<strong>in</strong>able<br />
community managed water supply facilities. One of the selected projects has its focus on watershed<br />
monitor<strong>in</strong>g and evaluation as a part of an <strong>in</strong>tegrated water resources development project. The<br />
selected projects are summarized <strong>in</strong> the follow<strong>in</strong>g table (table 3).<br />
Table 3. Projects selected for prelim<strong>in</strong>ary climate screen<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
Project Tim<strong>in</strong>g and Phase Notes<br />
Rural Water Supply and<br />
Environmental Programme <strong>in</strong><br />
Amhara Region, Phase IV (RWSEP)<br />
Rural Water Supply, Sanitation and<br />
Hygiene Programme <strong>in</strong><br />
Benishangul Gumuz Region<br />
(F<strong>in</strong>nWASH BG)<br />
Technical Assistance to the<br />
Watershed Monitor<strong>in</strong>g and<br />
Evaluation (WME) Component of<br />
the Tana Beles Integrated Water<br />
Resources <strong>Development</strong> Project<br />
(TBIWRDP) <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia<br />
July 2007 - June 2011 (5 years).<br />
Cont<strong>in</strong>uation from phases I-III.<br />
Phase IV is a phase-out phase.<br />
Plann<strong>in</strong>g Phase April 2008 - June<br />
2009. Implementation Phase<br />
July 2009 - June 2013 (5 years)<br />
June 2009 - October 2013 (4<br />
years 4 months).<br />
Total € 11,3 m of which 9<br />
M from F<strong>in</strong>land<br />
Total € 12,8 M of which<br />
11,4 M from F<strong>in</strong>land<br />
Implemented as a M&E<br />
component of TBIWRDP.<br />
Total grant from the<br />
Government of F<strong>in</strong>land €<br />
1,5M (WME) + € 3,5M for<br />
TBIWRDP<br />
48 The water sector portfolio, which is supported by the F<strong>in</strong>nish Government <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia, is presented <strong>in</strong> Annex II.<br />
25
The overall screen<strong>in</strong>g approach has been presented <strong>in</strong> chapter 1.4. The “climate lens” is applied for<br />
each of the reviewed projects below <strong>in</strong> chapters 4.2-4.4 with subchapters look<strong>in</strong>g at different key<br />
questions through the “climate lens” (see Box 1). <strong>Climate</strong> data and projected climatic patterns,<br />
which have served as basis for the screen<strong>in</strong>g, are summarized <strong>in</strong> chapter 2. Build<strong>in</strong>g on a review and<br />
analysis of project documentation, the <strong>in</strong>terviews and discussions with key project stakeholders<br />
(<strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g team leaders, programme coord<strong>in</strong>ators) form a central component of this screen<strong>in</strong>g<br />
exercise. 49<br />
This <strong>in</strong>itial screen<strong>in</strong>g classifies the programmes <strong>in</strong>to low – medium – high categories, based on<br />
identified climate risks to development effectiveness, where:<br />
- “low” refers to very limited risks for project outcomes potentially caused by climate<br />
variability and change<br />
- “medium”, refers to limited risks for project outcomes potentially caused by climate<br />
variability and change<br />
- “high” refers to potentially considerable risks for project outcomes caused by climate<br />
variability and change<br />
This <strong>in</strong>itial classification should guide immediate further steps for any high risk projects (<strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>depth<br />
risk assessment) and flag out potential modifications and entry po<strong>in</strong>ts for projects with<br />
medium risks. In addition, the screen<strong>in</strong>g approach contributes to a review of the potential of the<br />
selected development programmes to contribute to climate adaptive capacity (through<br />
strengthened livelihoods assets) <strong>in</strong> the programme areas.<br />
49 See Annex IV, for full list of stakeholders consulted dur<strong>in</strong>g the assignment, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g key project stakeholders.<br />
26
Figure 10. Map of Ethiopia highlight<strong>in</strong>g coarsely Benishangul-Gumuz Region <strong>in</strong> green, Amhara Region <strong>in</strong> blue<br />
grey, Lake Tana sub-bas<strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong> red and Beles sub-bas<strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong> yellow (map comb<strong>in</strong>ed from F<strong>in</strong>nWASH BG project<br />
document p.4 and WME Annex 7 p. ii). Amhara and Benishangul-Gumuz regions are located <strong>in</strong> the Ethiopian<br />
plateau, <strong>in</strong> the central and partly <strong>in</strong> the northern Ethiopia. These regions are notably cooler than the more low<br />
ly<strong>in</strong>g regions. More detailed description about the regional climate conditions, which serves as the basis for<br />
assess<strong>in</strong>g climate risks here, is presented <strong>in</strong> chapter 2.<br />
The figure above depicts the map of Ethiopia highlight<strong>in</strong>g coarsely the project areas (Figure 10).<br />
Amhara Region where the RWSEP project is implemented is highlighted <strong>in</strong> blue grey. The home of<br />
F<strong>in</strong>nWASH BG project, Benishangul-Gumuz Region, is highlighted <strong>in</strong> green. The two sub-bas<strong>in</strong>s where<br />
WME project functions is illustrated <strong>in</strong> red (Lake Tana sub-bas<strong>in</strong>) and yellow (Beles sub-bas<strong>in</strong>).<br />
4.2 Rural Water Supply and Environmental Programme <strong>in</strong> Amhara<br />
Region (RWSEP)<br />
The overall (long term) objective of RWSEP Phase IV is “Capacity of communities to <strong>in</strong>itiate, manage<br />
and implement their priority projects with support from woredas <strong>in</strong> Amhara Region and other<br />
regions <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia”. The purpose of Phase IV of RWSEP is “Institutionalised capacity (at all levels) to<br />
implement and ma<strong>in</strong>ta<strong>in</strong> susta<strong>in</strong>able community managed water supply facilities with CDF fund<strong>in</strong>g”.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> risks for project outcomes<br />
Project result achievement is based largely on <strong>in</strong>stitutional development <strong>in</strong> organiz<strong>in</strong>g water supply<br />
facilities. The technical facilities are however essential for deliver<strong>in</strong>g the expected services. The<br />
27
climate risks for the <strong>in</strong>frastructure and implementation (direct effect) are assessed here separately<br />
from the social, human resource and <strong>in</strong>stitutional risks (<strong>in</strong>direct effect).<br />
A priori, climate-<strong>in</strong>duced direct risks for project outcomes are mostly related with extreme weather<br />
events, such as droughts, floods and heavy ra<strong>in</strong>s. These weather events could cause discont<strong>in</strong>ued<br />
water supply by established systems due to i) lowered availability of water due to droughts or<br />
decreased precipitation <strong>in</strong> longer term, ii) temporary unavailability of (good quality) dr<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g water<br />
due to flood<strong>in</strong>g of water systems (e.g. contam<strong>in</strong>ation of wells or other water sources due to surface<br />
water overflow), iii) destruction of water <strong>in</strong>frastructure due to floods. In the longer-term (2030-<br />
2050), cont<strong>in</strong>ued temperature <strong>in</strong>crease, projected to <strong>in</strong>crease between 1°C and 3°C, could among<br />
other th<strong>in</strong>gs pose risks to groundwater level, i.e. water scarcity risks at water po<strong>in</strong>ts, <strong>in</strong> case ra<strong>in</strong>fall<br />
patterns show a dim<strong>in</strong>ish<strong>in</strong>g trend.<br />
The <strong>in</strong>itial screen<strong>in</strong>g reveals that floods have dur<strong>in</strong>g past years not posed a considerable risk to<br />
water po<strong>in</strong>ts, as only one of the programme woredas (Fogera) has encountered m<strong>in</strong>or problems due<br />
to floods. Droughts have neither caused major risks to project outcomes at the 14 programme<br />
woredas located at highlands areas 50 , with the programme water po<strong>in</strong>ts of the programme launched<br />
already <strong>in</strong> 1994 show<strong>in</strong>g a 95% level of functionality. 51 While local stakeholders have reportedly<br />
noted <strong>in</strong> some locations a slight decl<strong>in</strong>e <strong>in</strong> groundwater level at water po<strong>in</strong>ts, no systematic trend<br />
has so far been measured. With regards to other potential climate parameters (e.g. heat waves, cold<br />
days/nights, storms, hailstorms, forest and bush fires, etc) no risks to project outcomes have been<br />
noted, and solid climate data on potential longer term trends is lack<strong>in</strong>g for most of these parameters.<br />
In addition to these risks on the technical water supply system, also project implementation (<strong>in</strong>direct<br />
effect) could <strong>in</strong> pr<strong>in</strong>ciple be hampered by climate factors, e.g. due to limited access to project areas<br />
caused heavy ra<strong>in</strong>s or floods. Also construction conditions of planned water <strong>in</strong>frastructure can be<br />
worsened for same reasons. However, these risks have been well managed through weather<br />
sensitive tim<strong>in</strong>g of project activities. <strong>Climate</strong> risks also <strong>in</strong>clude the possibility of reduced staff<br />
resources as well as reduced capacity of local communities to manage and operate water supply<br />
systems due to climate hardships (floods and droughts) target<strong>in</strong>g their livelihoods. Also the targeted<br />
private sector might suffer from climate change and variability. However, several project<br />
components directly support livelihoods improvements that strengthen local capacities to adapt to<br />
these climate challenges (see below Project elements support<strong>in</strong>g local adaptation), which pose low<br />
<strong>in</strong>direct risks to project outcomes.<br />
Prior climate considerations<br />
Natural calamites, such as droughts and floods, have been identified as risks to project<br />
implementation and outcomes <strong>in</strong> the project document. However, no further elaboration on these<br />
50 Drought related problems to functionality have occasionally been only noted <strong>in</strong> one of the woredas, i.e. East Estie.<br />
51 No problems related to surface water runoff have been reported.<br />
28
isks or cop<strong>in</strong>g measures has been provided, as it is noted that these risks are “beyond the control of<br />
the project”.<br />
Project elements support<strong>in</strong>g local adaptation<br />
RWSEP project has two major elements that support local climate adaptation: i) <strong>in</strong>creased<br />
community capacity <strong>in</strong>itiate, manage and implement their priority projects with support from<br />
woredas, and ii) susta<strong>in</strong>able water supply facility implementation and ma<strong>in</strong>tenance. Look<strong>in</strong>g at the<br />
contribution of the RWSEP on adaptive capacity through a set of livelihoods components, it can be<br />
noted that project activities contribute positively to several pro-climate adaptation livelihoods assets<br />
(<strong>in</strong>cl. human, social, natural, physical and f<strong>in</strong>ancial – see figure 1).<br />
Major improvement has happened <strong>in</strong> physical assets <strong>in</strong> the form of water supply facility construction,<br />
rely<strong>in</strong>g strongly on local people 52 , which has made critical natural assets, i.e. fresh water resources<br />
available <strong>in</strong> better quantity and quality. Water supply facility is basic <strong>in</strong>frastructure provid<strong>in</strong>g basic<br />
service (potable water) thus free<strong>in</strong>g time to other (livelihood) activities. The project activities <strong>in</strong>clude<br />
protection measures around the water po<strong>in</strong>ts, with limited re-vegetation and e.g. plant<strong>in</strong>g of trees. 53<br />
A water supply system, with well selected locations for water po<strong>in</strong>ts and that is robust enough to<br />
stand climate change and variability, enhances social and economic stability <strong>in</strong> local communities<br />
suffer<strong>in</strong>g, <strong>in</strong> addition to climate challenges, from many other, often more acute <strong>in</strong>terl<strong>in</strong>ked<br />
challenges such as high density of population, health risks, low agricultural production, deforestation,<br />
soil erosion, competition of scarce resources etc.<br />
Improvement <strong>in</strong> local level f<strong>in</strong>ancial assets has been pursued by develop<strong>in</strong>g CDF 54 and Credit<br />
products. Water stakeholder forum supports social relationships (social asset) <strong>in</strong> the communities<br />
that can be also utilized <strong>in</strong> pursuit for other livelihood activities. There are several elements <strong>in</strong> the<br />
project that contribute to human assets and enhanced local skills. Private sector development is not<br />
necessarily focused exactly on local communities, but optimally it is support<strong>in</strong>g local capacity on<br />
water resources services. The programme conta<strong>in</strong>s also other elements of human capacity build<strong>in</strong>g,<br />
such as sanitation tra<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g and improved health conditions, which contribute to reduction of overall<br />
vulnerability of local communities to climatic and non-climatic threats. 55<br />
52 Hand dug wells up to some 30 meters depth.<br />
53 In some cases overflows from water po<strong>in</strong>ts are also used for irrigation of grow<strong>in</strong>g vegetables nearby, for improved<br />
hygiene such as wash<strong>in</strong>g clothes, tak<strong>in</strong>g showers as well as for animals<br />
54 The Community <strong>Development</strong> Fund (CDF) is a f<strong>in</strong>anc<strong>in</strong>g mechanism for community <strong>in</strong>itiatives <strong>in</strong> rural development.<br />
55 RWSEP project has also reshaped some of the structures (i.e. different levels of governance and private sector) and<br />
processes (i.e. laws, policies, culture and <strong>in</strong>stitutions) that <strong>in</strong>fluence livelihoods. Different levels of government are<br />
targeted as several of the measures were focused on development of <strong>in</strong>creased capacity of woreda, zonal and regional<br />
levels. Private sector development is also one of the focuses s<strong>in</strong>ce CDF related materials and services production was<br />
supported. Cultural changes contribut<strong>in</strong>g to resilience have also been promoted <strong>in</strong> the form of susta<strong>in</strong>able sanitation and<br />
hygiene behavioral change and gender ma<strong>in</strong>stream<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
29
Project elements underm<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g local adaptation<br />
Through the screen<strong>in</strong>g process no element that would contribute negatively to local adaptation<br />
capacity is identified. Obviously e.g. a rapid decl<strong>in</strong>e <strong>in</strong> the functionality of water po<strong>in</strong>ts could<br />
endanger wider progress reached (be it human, social, f<strong>in</strong>ancial development) 56 but with regards to<br />
programmed project activities, they consistently contribute to improved adaptive capacity.<br />
Conclusions and potential entry po<strong>in</strong>ts for <strong>in</strong>terventions<br />
In conclusion, the <strong>in</strong>itial climate screen<strong>in</strong>g of RWSEP reveals low-medium level risks for project<br />
outcomes (currently and <strong>in</strong> the short-term). <strong>Climate</strong> extremes have so far posed only limited<br />
problems for project implementation but tak<strong>in</strong>g note of the reported climatic experiences of past 5-<br />
10 years on local level and the projected <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong>tensity and frequency of floods, drought and<br />
heavy ra<strong>in</strong>s, further cop<strong>in</strong>g measures should be considered as part of the on-go<strong>in</strong>g project phase-out<br />
phase <strong>in</strong> order to ensure the functionality of some 3000 water po<strong>in</strong>ts also <strong>in</strong> the future.<br />
While the high level functionality of the water po<strong>in</strong>ts <strong>in</strong>dicates a good choice of sites and<br />
preparation of wells, systematic monitor<strong>in</strong>g of ground water level could provide valuable<br />
<strong>in</strong>formation for potential follow-up measures. On a wider level the <strong>in</strong>tegrated watershed and land<br />
use management approach has been widely adopted and provides the framework for address<strong>in</strong>g, <strong>in</strong><br />
addition to <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g climate challenges, the other press<strong>in</strong>g development needs on local level.<br />
Tak<strong>in</strong>g note of the aim to duplicate the successful programme approach and scale-up the activities <strong>in</strong><br />
other woredas, consider<strong>in</strong>g systematically the longer-term climate risks as part of project<br />
preparation (despite uncerta<strong>in</strong>ties and gaps <strong>in</strong> climate data), identify<strong>in</strong>g potential cop<strong>in</strong>g measures<br />
also to weather extremes as well as further strengthen<strong>in</strong>g concrete local level adaptive skills and<br />
awareness, could provide opportunities to further climate proof the implemented programmes.<br />
4.3 Rural Water supply, Sanitation and Hygiene programme <strong>in</strong><br />
Benishangul Gumuz region (F<strong>in</strong>nWASH BG)<br />
The overall (long term) objective of the F<strong>in</strong>nWASH programme is “universal access to improved<br />
water supply, sanitation and hygiene <strong>in</strong> Benishangul-Gumuz Region”. The programme purpose is to<br />
achieve “<strong>in</strong>creased capacity <strong>in</strong> the Region to plan and manage the WASH programme for the<br />
achievement of UAP (Universal Access Plan) 57 goals <strong>in</strong> Benishangul Gumuz, us<strong>in</strong>g CDF as a strategic<br />
fund<strong>in</strong>g mechanism for community empowerment”.<br />
56 Reportedly local communities have the capacity to regulate water usage <strong>in</strong> case scarcity or quality problems arise.<br />
57 In 2005, GoE produced a Universal Access Program, focus<strong>in</strong>g only on water supply and sanitation. This plan redef<strong>in</strong>es the<br />
concept of access to basic water supply and sanitation. Accord<strong>in</strong>g to the new def<strong>in</strong>ition, the access to an improved water<br />
source means the availability of at least 15 litres per person per day (lpcd) from a source with<strong>in</strong> one and half a kilometre of<br />
the dwell<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> rural areas and 20 litres <strong>in</strong> urban areas.<br />
30
<strong>Climate</strong> risks for project outcomes<br />
F<strong>in</strong>nWASH BG project approach and content (<strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>stitutional, environmental and technical<br />
sett<strong>in</strong>g) are very similar to RWSEP, which was studied above. Tak<strong>in</strong>g note of the start of actual<br />
F<strong>in</strong>nWASH implementation phase <strong>in</strong> July 2009, this <strong>in</strong>itial screen<strong>in</strong>g reviews expected project<br />
outcomes and strongly refers to analysis and f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>gs of the RWSEP climate screen<strong>in</strong>g exercise.<br />
The success of <strong>in</strong>stitutional development efforts <strong>in</strong> organiz<strong>in</strong>g water supply facilities will be decisive<br />
for the achievement of F<strong>in</strong>nWASH project objectives. The provision of clean water <strong>in</strong> 5 woredas, for<br />
250 000 people <strong>in</strong> approximately 600 communities will require a.o. the establishment of some 600-<br />
700 water po<strong>in</strong>ts, which are essential for deliver<strong>in</strong>g the expected services. 58 While climate change<br />
and variability may have direct effects on the foreseen project <strong>in</strong>frastructure and implementation, it<br />
may also pose some <strong>in</strong>direct risks related to social, human and <strong>in</strong>stitutional capacities necessary to<br />
achieve the project outcomes.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong>-<strong>in</strong>duced direct risks for F<strong>in</strong>nWASH project outcomes could be related with extreme weather<br />
events, such as droughts, floods and heavy ra<strong>in</strong>s. However, so far droughts and floods have not been<br />
frequently reported <strong>in</strong> the programme woredas. While the programme area generally enjoys an<br />
annual average ra<strong>in</strong>fall amount <strong>in</strong> the range of +-1,000 mm the <strong>in</strong>creased variability <strong>in</strong> ra<strong>in</strong>fall<br />
patterns (changed arrival of ra<strong>in</strong>s, <strong>in</strong>tensiveness of ra<strong>in</strong>s etc) do already pose <strong>in</strong>creased challenges<br />
for local livelihoods and food security.<br />
In the longer-term, cont<strong>in</strong>ued temperature <strong>in</strong>crease (by mid century projected to <strong>in</strong>crease between<br />
1°C and 3°C) could among other th<strong>in</strong>gs pose risks to groundwater level, i.e. water scarcity risks at<br />
some water po<strong>in</strong>ts. With regards to other potential climate parameters (e.g. heat waves, cold<br />
days/nights, storms, wild fires, etc), reportedly these do currently not pose any significant risks at<br />
the project area.<br />
In addition to these risks on the technical water supply system, project implementation could <strong>in</strong><br />
some cases be <strong>in</strong>directly hampered by climate factors, e.g. due to limited access to project areas<br />
caused by heavy ra<strong>in</strong>s or floods. Construction conditions of planned water <strong>in</strong>frastructure could be<br />
worsened for the same reasons but these risks can be managed through sensible tim<strong>in</strong>g of project<br />
activities.<br />
Prior climate considerations<br />
Dur<strong>in</strong>g project preparation, climatic hazards, <strong>in</strong> particular floods and droughts, have been identified<br />
as the most serious external risks that might affect F<strong>in</strong>nWASH BG (<strong>in</strong> addition to overall peace and<br />
stability <strong>in</strong> the region). The likelihood of these climate extremes has been assessed low but potential<br />
impacts significant. These risks have been considered beyond control of the F<strong>in</strong>nWASH programme<br />
58 Some 90% of the water po<strong>in</strong>ts will be hand dug (<strong>in</strong>to a depth of approximately 12-20 meters) and some 10% of the water<br />
po<strong>in</strong>ts will consist of “protected spr<strong>in</strong>gs”.<br />
31
and addressed <strong>in</strong> the logical framework as assumptions (“No major change <strong>in</strong> climate affects<br />
implementation”).<br />
Project elements support<strong>in</strong>g local adaptation<br />
F<strong>in</strong>nWASH project has several elements that support local climate adaptation, related to its core<br />
objectives, i.e. i) Institutionalised community capacity to construct and ma<strong>in</strong>ta<strong>in</strong> community<br />
managed water supply and adopt appropriate technologies and behaviours related to sanitation and<br />
hygiene susta<strong>in</strong>ably, ii) CDF mechanism <strong>in</strong>stitutionalized as a mechanism to f<strong>in</strong>ance WASH<br />
<strong>in</strong>vestments, iii) Institutionalised capacity at woreda level to support communities <strong>in</strong> implement<strong>in</strong>g<br />
WASH activities, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g re<strong>in</strong>vestment, and iv) Institutionalised capacity at zonal and regional levels<br />
to support WASH activities and replicate CDF approach.<br />
The activities that will be undertaken to reach these objectives can be expected to contribute<br />
positively to several pro-climate adaptation livelihoods assets (<strong>in</strong>cl. human, social, natural, physical<br />
and f<strong>in</strong>ancial – see figure 1). Construction of water supply facilities will make fresh water resources<br />
available <strong>in</strong> better quantity and quality and contribute to both improved natural and physical<br />
livelihood assets that directly reduce immediate vulnerability to climate variability.<br />
Institutionalized community capacity can be expected to have positive effects on social networks<br />
and assets, on human capital and cultural transformation. Knowledge and skills obta<strong>in</strong>ed through<br />
project activities can be beneficial <strong>in</strong> other (livelihood) activities, contribute to improved social<br />
networks and relationships <strong>in</strong> the communities and support susta<strong>in</strong>able sanitation and hygiene<br />
behavioural change. As experiences from RWSEP have demonstrated, the replication of the CDF<br />
mechanism should have a positive effect on F<strong>in</strong>nWASH target communities’ f<strong>in</strong>ancial assets and help<br />
channel funds towards development efforts <strong>in</strong>itiated by local stakeholders.<br />
Overall, the project activities will have a positive effect on local and regional governance. Increased<br />
local governance capacity, support<strong>in</strong>g local communities at <strong>in</strong>itiat<strong>in</strong>g, manag<strong>in</strong>g and ma<strong>in</strong>ta<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g<br />
water supply facilities, can be expected to contribute to a reduction of overall vulnerability of local<br />
communities to climatic and non-climatic threats.<br />
Project elements underm<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g local adaptation<br />
The <strong>in</strong>itial screen<strong>in</strong>g does not flag out project elements that would contribute negatively to local<br />
adaptation capacity. On the contrary, as noted above, the overall framework for F<strong>in</strong>nWASH can be<br />
expected to contribute to improved climate adaptive capacity <strong>in</strong> the programme areas.<br />
Conclusions and potential entry po<strong>in</strong>ts for <strong>in</strong>terventions<br />
In conclusion, the <strong>in</strong>itial climate screen<strong>in</strong>g of F<strong>in</strong>nWASH BG reveals low - medium level risks for<br />
project outcomes. Reportedly floods and droughts have so far not been frequent <strong>in</strong> the programme<br />
woredas (figure 11). However, the already experienced variability <strong>in</strong> ra<strong>in</strong>fall patterns as well as the<br />
projected changes <strong>in</strong> ra<strong>in</strong>fall patterns, which could a.o. entail changes <strong>in</strong> tim<strong>in</strong>g of ra<strong>in</strong>fall/ra<strong>in</strong>fall<br />
periods as well as the <strong>in</strong>tensity of ra<strong>in</strong> events (see chapter 2) can pose real climate risks to local<br />
32
livelihoods. The potential <strong>in</strong>crease of flood and drought events cannot be ruled out either, based on<br />
the available climate data.<br />
Figure 11. Map of Benishangul Gumuz and<br />
programme woredas (source: F<strong>in</strong>nWASH-BG MIS,<br />
based on various GIS datasets)<br />
The CDF mechanism provides several opportunities to further strengthen the local adaptive capacity.<br />
The <strong>in</strong>clusion e.g. of a complementary project component (already envisioned by project<br />
stakeholders) of ra<strong>in</strong>water harvest<strong>in</strong>g (possibly from house roofs), can provide a concrete tool for<br />
reduc<strong>in</strong>g local vulnerability to <strong>in</strong>creased ra<strong>in</strong>fall variability and droughts. As stated <strong>in</strong> chapter 2<br />
analysis of climate projections, <strong>in</strong> particular related to ra<strong>in</strong>fall patterns, the models show a wide<br />
variety <strong>in</strong> results, <strong>in</strong>dicat<strong>in</strong>g a need for <strong>in</strong>creased local level preparedness for both reduced ra<strong>in</strong>fall as<br />
well as considerably <strong>in</strong>creased ra<strong>in</strong>fall <strong>in</strong> the future.<br />
Measures such as the harvest<strong>in</strong>g of ra<strong>in</strong>water and usage for home gardens and grow<strong>in</strong>g fodder for<br />
cattle can be expected to improve food security and provide a no-regrets approach for<br />
strengthen<strong>in</strong>g local climate adaptive capacity <strong>in</strong> view of the uncerta<strong>in</strong> climatic changes. Any further<br />
<strong>in</strong>tegrated efforts, promot<strong>in</strong>g susta<strong>in</strong>able land use and water management and soil degradation, and<br />
more broadly climate vulnerability, 59 possibly funded through the CDF mechanism, should be<br />
carefully considered, <strong>in</strong> order to strengthen local livelihoods assets dur<strong>in</strong>g the F<strong>in</strong>nWASH<br />
programme.<br />
59 Sedimentation of rivers poses also a considerable risk for fisheries.<br />
33
4.4 Technical Assistance to the Watershed Monitor<strong>in</strong>g and<br />
Evaluation (WME) Component of the Tana Beles Integrated Water<br />
Resources <strong>Development</strong> Project (TBIWRDP)<br />
The overall development objective of the WME project is “improved watershed and natural resource<br />
management, lead<strong>in</strong>g to improved and susta<strong>in</strong>able livelihoods <strong>in</strong> the Ribb, Gumera and Jema subwatersheds”.<br />
Hereby the Monitor<strong>in</strong>g and Evaluation (M&E) system that will be established should<br />
demonstrate the benefits of watershed conservation and management practices and facilitate the<br />
utilization of <strong>in</strong>formation produced for the benefit of all stakeholders.<br />
The project, which is enter<strong>in</strong>g implementation phase <strong>in</strong> July/August 2009, has identified 6 results<br />
(see <strong>Climate</strong> risks for project outcomes, below) that can be achieved through two ma<strong>in</strong> activities, i.e.<br />
i) development of a modern reliable MIS (<strong>Management</strong> Information System) and M&E, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g<br />
data collection and database design <strong>in</strong>to a system which will enable horizontal and vertical<br />
communication, and ii) improv<strong>in</strong>g management, plann<strong>in</strong>g and decision mak<strong>in</strong>g based upon the use<br />
of M&E through capacity build<strong>in</strong>g and encourag<strong>in</strong>g the use of timely and reliable data to raise<br />
awareness of its benefits and thereby <strong>in</strong>crease ownership.<br />
The WME project, which is a component of the Tana Beles Integrated Water Resources<br />
<strong>Development</strong> Project (see figure 12 below) has a very strong focus on organisational development,<br />
capacity build<strong>in</strong>g, tra<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g, and awareness and could serve as a basis for improved monitor<strong>in</strong>g and<br />
evaluation services on regional and national level <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia.<br />
Figure 12. WME project area. The overall objective of TBIWRDP is to develop enabl<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>stitutions and<br />
<strong>in</strong>vestments for <strong>in</strong>tegrated plann<strong>in</strong>g, management and development <strong>in</strong> the Tana and Beles Sub-bas<strong>in</strong>s to<br />
accelerate susta<strong>in</strong>able growth. Component B1 is one of the seven sub-components of TBIWRDP has been<br />
34
specifically designed to support susta<strong>in</strong>able watershed development and management through community<br />
based plann<strong>in</strong>g and participation <strong>in</strong> the Ribb, Gumera, and Jema sub-watersheds <strong>in</strong> the Lake Tana sub-bas<strong>in</strong>.<br />
The WME Project, has been attached to the B1 to provide specific Technical Assistance to support the<br />
management of Component B1, and the entire TWIRDP, with regards to monitor<strong>in</strong>g and evaluation.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> risks for project outcomes<br />
As a technical support project aimed at local and regional governance there are very few direct<br />
climate risks threaten<strong>in</strong>g the achievement of the expected six key results:<br />
1. Relevant, accurate and reliable basel<strong>in</strong>e <strong>in</strong>formation is available;<br />
2. Fully functional M&E system and MIS established;<br />
3. M&E system effectively used for plann<strong>in</strong>g and implementation by managers at national, regional,<br />
Woreda and Kebele 60 levels;<br />
4. Human and organisational capacity at regional, Woreda and Kebele levels enhanced to effectively<br />
implement M&E,<br />
5. M&E system is operat<strong>in</strong>g as a platform for effective horizontal and vertical <strong>in</strong>formation shar<strong>in</strong>g among<br />
project stakeholders;<br />
6. Component B1 M&E system and MIS are <strong>in</strong>stitutionalised across levels among stakeholders.<br />
The direct climatic risks e.g. due to possible extreme weather events associated with field<br />
measurements (such as riverbank gaug<strong>in</strong>g stations) can be considered low. <strong>Climate</strong> extremes might<br />
also create some difficulties <strong>in</strong> reach<strong>in</strong>g remote project areas, but do not pose any considerable risks<br />
to reach<strong>in</strong>g the identified key results.<br />
Outcomes of the project could <strong>in</strong> some cases be <strong>in</strong>directly <strong>in</strong>fluenced by natural hazards lead<strong>in</strong>g to<br />
reduced staff resources <strong>in</strong> project and woreda/kebele organisations or e.g. lead to <strong>in</strong>terruptions to<br />
participatory sampl<strong>in</strong>g programme (depend<strong>in</strong>g on local vulnerability). However, the current climatic<br />
hazards nor the projected climate change <strong>in</strong> the longer-term (<strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g temperature <strong>in</strong>crease 1-3°C<br />
by mid-century, changes <strong>in</strong> precipitation or other climatic parameters), do not pose any significant<br />
risks to the achievement of the project outcomes.<br />
Prior climate considerations<br />
Dur<strong>in</strong>g WME project preparation and plann<strong>in</strong>g climate change and variability issues have generally<br />
been taken <strong>in</strong>to consideration, not<strong>in</strong>g that “natural disasters do not pose direct risks to the project<br />
but may potentially <strong>in</strong>directly affect implementation”. WME project documentation does not<br />
elaborate further on these considerations e.g. how the potential climate implications have been<br />
assessed or <strong>in</strong> which manner implementation might be <strong>in</strong>directly affected.<br />
A priori, climate considerations are at the heart of the entire Tana Beles Integrated Water Resources<br />
<strong>Development</strong> Project (TBIWRDP), of which WME will form a key component. Investments that are to<br />
be provided through TBIWRDP <strong>in</strong> watershed development are expected to provide tangible benefits<br />
60 A kebele, which is part of a woredas, is the smallest adm<strong>in</strong>istrative unit of Ethiopia.<br />
35
<strong>in</strong> terms of provid<strong>in</strong>g climate resilience to highly vulnerable stakeholders who primarily depend on<br />
ra<strong>in</strong>-fed agriculture and livestock. 61<br />
Project elements support<strong>in</strong>g local adaptation<br />
As a technical support project aimed at local and regional governance the project will not have<br />
considerable direct impacts on local livelihoods and the livelihood assets that enable climate<br />
adaptation. However, as a by-product several project activities may <strong>in</strong>directly contribute to local<br />
livelihood assets.<br />
The WME project is clearly focus<strong>in</strong>g on different levels of governance <strong>in</strong> order to enhance the<br />
capacity and means for natural resource management. In the climate adaptation po<strong>in</strong>t of view, it is<br />
essential that local governance is provided with means for climate sensitive plann<strong>in</strong>g and<br />
management, which <strong>in</strong> turn can create an operat<strong>in</strong>g environment for local livelihoods that enables<br />
feasible adaptation opportunities for climatic conditions. For example, produced MIS and M&E<br />
systems can provide local and regional governance <strong>in</strong>sight on critical issues related e.g. to irrigation<br />
and farm<strong>in</strong>g practices, which may be at risk <strong>in</strong> the future due to weather extremes, temperature<br />
<strong>in</strong>crease and/or changed ra<strong>in</strong>fall patterns. With this <strong>in</strong>sight, and based on reliable data and M&E<br />
processes, local governance can design their plann<strong>in</strong>g and management <strong>in</strong>terventions to best<br />
enhance local livelihood assets (e.g. human capital <strong>in</strong> form of knowledge on suitable farm<strong>in</strong>g<br />
practices <strong>in</strong> chang<strong>in</strong>g climate) and therefore also adaptive capacity.<br />
Increased availability of <strong>in</strong>formation <strong>in</strong> local and regional governance is especially important when<br />
consider<strong>in</strong>g natural resources management. Without this <strong>in</strong>formation regional level water and land<br />
resources management cannot, or is extremely difficult to, be carried out successfully. Successful<br />
watershed scale land use and water resources management is crucial for the local livelihoods.<br />
In l<strong>in</strong>e with project documents, project basel<strong>in</strong>e studies will produce <strong>in</strong>formation that can be very<br />
useful when consider<strong>in</strong>g climate change implications to the area. Basel<strong>in</strong>e <strong>in</strong>formation will <strong>in</strong>clude<br />
essential climatic data as well as rather comprehensive package of social and socio-economic<br />
<strong>in</strong>formation on the local societies.<br />
While local people are not the target user group for basel<strong>in</strong>e studies and M&E results, produced<br />
<strong>in</strong>formation can “trickle down” to village level and be used to enhance local adaptation measures.<br />
Hence local awareness and knowledge (human assets) on natural resource management may<br />
<strong>in</strong>directly <strong>in</strong>crease through WME. Also social assets may be <strong>in</strong>creased through the establishment of<br />
participatory sampl<strong>in</strong>g programmes which can result <strong>in</strong> enhanced social networks locally.<br />
61 The Government of Ethiopia (GoE) and the World Bank (WB) have been prepar<strong>in</strong>g the TBIWRDP s<strong>in</strong>ce 2006. See e.g.<br />
PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT, TANA & BELES INTEGRATED WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT PROJECT (May 2, 2008)<br />
which assesses the susta<strong>in</strong>ability and potential project risks and safeguard policies of the TBIWRDP. It highlights high<br />
climate variability that impacts local livelihoods, <strong>in</strong> particular through droughts <strong>in</strong> the sub-bas<strong>in</strong>s, and floods (especially<br />
around Lake Tana) and po<strong>in</strong>ts out that future climate change is expected to exacerbate this variability and adds to the<br />
uncerta<strong>in</strong>ties that currently impact livelihoods and <strong>in</strong>vestments <strong>in</strong> that area. In addition, Lake Tana faces significant water<br />
and natural resources degradation problems.<br />
36
Project elements underm<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g local adaptation<br />
Through the screen<strong>in</strong>g process no element that would contribute negatively to local adaptation<br />
capacity was identified.<br />
Conclusions and potential entry po<strong>in</strong>ts for <strong>in</strong>terventions<br />
This <strong>in</strong>itial climate screen<strong>in</strong>g of Technical Assistance to the Watershed Monitor<strong>in</strong>g and Evaluation<br />
(WME) Component of the Tana Beles reveals only low level risks for project outcomes. Even if<br />
climate risks have not been explicitly assessed, they have been taken <strong>in</strong>to consideration <strong>in</strong> a rather<br />
comprehensive manner, through an <strong>in</strong>tegrated watershed approach to management of water<br />
resources and land use.<br />
The basel<strong>in</strong>e studies will answer a wide set of questions and will a.o. provide <strong>in</strong>formation on amount<br />
of ra<strong>in</strong>fall, water flows and soil erosion (<strong>in</strong>cl. sedimentation <strong>in</strong> the rivers) which could be<br />
systematically analyzed also from a climate adaptation perspective. For proper <strong>in</strong>clusion of the<br />
climate adaptation perspective it is vital to obta<strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong>formation on the local communities affected.<br />
Social and power structures <strong>in</strong> the societies, livelihood strategies and economic activities among<br />
others are key factors determ<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g adaptive capacity.<br />
Consequently, the well elaborated basel<strong>in</strong>e studies could provide valuable <strong>in</strong>formation on<br />
experienced climate hazards, sensitivity of key resources (land, water, forest) to climate change and<br />
variability, local cop<strong>in</strong>g strategies, level of soil loss and degradation etc, which could directly feed<br />
<strong>in</strong>to formulation of measures for strengthen<strong>in</strong>g local adaptation capacity. 62<br />
The WME will also provide <strong>in</strong>formation on reforestation progress, which could also serve as a basis<br />
for seek<strong>in</strong>g additional fund<strong>in</strong>g for susta<strong>in</strong>able watershed and land use management activities<br />
through carbon sequestration fund<strong>in</strong>g. Consequently, dur<strong>in</strong>g WME project implementation several<br />
potential entry po<strong>in</strong>ts for further <strong>in</strong>form<strong>in</strong>g and monitor<strong>in</strong>g pro-adaptation decision mak<strong>in</strong>g as well<br />
as support<strong>in</strong>g concrete local level adaptation measures may be identified.<br />
Regard<strong>in</strong>g the entire TBIWRDP, World Bank is plann<strong>in</strong>g to address climate risks <strong>in</strong> more detail as part<br />
of its long-term engagement for the Growth Corridor. 63 These efforts should feed <strong>in</strong>to all on-go<strong>in</strong>g<br />
and planned development cooperation activities <strong>in</strong> the Tana Beles watershed.<br />
62 See draft basel<strong>in</strong>e questionnaires. Technical Assistance to the Watershed Monitor<strong>in</strong>g and Evaluation (WME) Component<br />
of the Tana Beles Integrated Water Resources <strong>Development</strong> Project (TBIWRDP) <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia. Version May 2009.<br />
63 At the time of writ<strong>in</strong>g this document, the World Bank is about to f<strong>in</strong>alize its “Growth Study” for the Tana & Beles area,<br />
which will contribute to sett<strong>in</strong>g a road map for WB support <strong>in</strong> the area <strong>in</strong> the longer term.<br />
37
5 Key f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>gs and conclusions<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> variability and change pose critical challenges to Ethiopian development aspirations and the<br />
ability of exist<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>stitutions to manage new and emerg<strong>in</strong>g risks. Manag<strong>in</strong>g these risks effectively<br />
will require a systematic <strong>in</strong>tegration of climate risk considerations <strong>in</strong>to national policies,<br />
management practices and development programmes.<br />
Despite climate change hav<strong>in</strong>g recently risen onto the Ethiopian national policy agenda,<br />
ma<strong>in</strong>stream<strong>in</strong>g climate <strong>in</strong>to Ethiopian development policies is only at an <strong>in</strong>itial stage and several<br />
barriers block the access to mitigation fund<strong>in</strong>g and hamper the concrete implementation of climate<br />
adaptation measures on national, regional and local levels.<br />
The extremely high dependence of the Ethiopian economy on ra<strong>in</strong> fed agriculture, which is very<br />
sensitive to climate variability, is one of the ma<strong>in</strong> causes of vulnerability <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia. The overall<br />
underdevelopment of the water-sector is another critical component contribut<strong>in</strong>g to climate<br />
vulnerability. Despite the fact that Ethiopia has substantial water resources, these have neither been<br />
developed nor managed well, leav<strong>in</strong>g rapidly grow<strong>in</strong>g populations vulnerable to the destructive<br />
impacts of water and climate variability. Ethiopia’s extensive dependence on hydropower and plans<br />
to build additional damns may further <strong>in</strong>crease the country’s exposure to climatic risks.<br />
As the national Plan for Accelerated and Susta<strong>in</strong>able <strong>Development</strong> to End Poverty still strongly relies<br />
on agricultural production be<strong>in</strong>g the primary driver for growth <strong>in</strong> the com<strong>in</strong>g years, it is of vital<br />
importance to f<strong>in</strong>d concrete and immediate means to strengthen the national adaptive capacity and<br />
<strong>in</strong> the longer term guide economic growth towards less climate sensitive activities.<br />
A strong <strong>in</strong>stitutional ownership of climate policy (be it adaptation or mitigation) is still lack<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong><br />
Ethiopia, with the absence of a clear home-base for climate policy and decisive leadership for policy<br />
coord<strong>in</strong>ation and cross-sectoral communication. The recent establishment of a “National Forum on<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> Change” may help to overcome some of these barriers, possibly lead<strong>in</strong>g to the elaboration<br />
of a national climate strategy.<br />
International cooperation currently lacks strategy, capacity and effective cooperation models on<br />
climate change. The <strong>in</strong>ternational community should improve their coord<strong>in</strong>ation on climate &<br />
development issues <strong>in</strong> order to ensure that all development cooperation efforts systematically take<br />
climate risk management as well as adaptation strengthen<strong>in</strong>g as cross-cutt<strong>in</strong>g issues <strong>in</strong>to account.<br />
The mid-term review of UNDAF (United Nations <strong>Development</strong> Assistance Framework, 2007-2011)<br />
provides one opportunity to elevate the priority of climate change.<br />
While a cont<strong>in</strong>ued <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> temperature can be projected with high confidence for Ethiopia, there<br />
is still considerable uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty about the future patterns of ra<strong>in</strong>fall and weather extremes <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g<br />
droughts and floods, which cause major socioeconomic disruption. Despite these uncerta<strong>in</strong>ties and<br />
evident climate data gaps (a.o. data on already experienced climate variability, <strong>in</strong>formation on how<br />
local communities have adapted, short-term forecast<strong>in</strong>g, regional climate modell<strong>in</strong>g and projections)<br />
38
the exist<strong>in</strong>g body of knowledge could guide overall policy development and <strong>in</strong>vestments <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia<br />
towards lower climate vulnerability.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> ma<strong>in</strong>stream<strong>in</strong>g will require a climate sensitive plann<strong>in</strong>g approach and risk management<br />
capacity, which explicitly takes <strong>in</strong>to account climate risks by identify<strong>in</strong>g robust, low/no – regrets<br />
solutions. Lessons learned from other countries po<strong>in</strong>t out the importance of ensur<strong>in</strong>g that climate<br />
risk considerations and ma<strong>in</strong>stream<strong>in</strong>g are particularly well rooted <strong>in</strong> national economic plann<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
Ethiopia has not been able to ga<strong>in</strong> access to carbon market fund<strong>in</strong>g and further efforts are required<br />
to capitalize potential for climate mitigation parallel to adaptation. In particular, additional specific<br />
capacity build<strong>in</strong>g and technical assistance are needed to develop examples of multi-benefit climate<br />
projects <strong>in</strong> areas such as renewable energy and land-use management and REDD+.<br />
The F<strong>in</strong>nish development cooperation activities <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia focus strategically on sectors (<strong>in</strong><br />
particular water, education, land use) which are <strong>in</strong> many respects at the nexus of development and<br />
climate challenges. This provides F<strong>in</strong>land an exceptional opportunity, and a particular responsibility,<br />
to ensure that all F<strong>in</strong>nish activities contribute to susta<strong>in</strong>able growth, poverty reduction as well as<br />
strengthened adaptive capacity <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia to cope with climate variability and change.<br />
With the dual aim to contribute to the ma<strong>in</strong>stream<strong>in</strong>g of climate <strong>in</strong>to F<strong>in</strong>nish development<br />
cooperation and strengthen Ethiopian adaptive capacity, three development cooperation projects <strong>in</strong><br />
the water sector <strong>in</strong> the states of Amhara and Benishangul-Gumuz have been climate screened as<br />
part of this assessment. Two of the selected projects focus on water supply and sanitation (and<br />
hygiene/environment) <strong>in</strong> local communities as well as on the communities’ ability to implement and<br />
ma<strong>in</strong>ta<strong>in</strong> susta<strong>in</strong>able community managed water supply facilities. One of the selected projects has<br />
its focus on watershed monitor<strong>in</strong>g and evaluation as a part of an <strong>in</strong>tegrated water resources<br />
development project.<br />
The <strong>in</strong>itial screen<strong>in</strong>g (apply<strong>in</strong>g a “climate lens” on the projects) reveals only limited climate risks to<br />
project outcomes, even if climate variability and change <strong>in</strong> particular, have not been explicitly<br />
considered dur<strong>in</strong>g project plann<strong>in</strong>g. Weather extremes, <strong>in</strong> particular floods and droughts may pose<br />
low-to-medium level risks for some specific project activities. However, <strong>in</strong> general these weather<br />
extremes have been considered to be “beyond the immediate control of the projects”.<br />
The selected three projects comprise several elements that strengthen local adaptive capacity as<br />
they contribute to improved livelihoods assets (bet it natural, social, human, f<strong>in</strong>ancial and/or<br />
physical assets). As such, the applied <strong>in</strong>tegrated approach to watershed management acknowledges<br />
explicitly the vital <strong>in</strong>terl<strong>in</strong>kages between water resource management and susta<strong>in</strong>able land use, and<br />
hereby promotes several pro-climate adaptation activities. The monitor<strong>in</strong>g and evaluation<br />
programme will help strengthen <strong>in</strong>stitutional capacity and cooperation (regional and local level) and<br />
provide solid basel<strong>in</strong>e and monitor<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>formation, which can also serve as basis for systematic<br />
adaptation plann<strong>in</strong>g and implementation. The <strong>in</strong>novative CDF (Community <strong>Development</strong> Fund)<br />
f<strong>in</strong>anc<strong>in</strong>g mechanism, launched as part of project implementation, has proven to be a successful<br />
means to strengthen local livelihoods and hereby also reduce vulnerability to climate variability.<br />
39
The <strong>in</strong>itial screen<strong>in</strong>g also identified potential for improvement <strong>in</strong> project plann<strong>in</strong>g and<br />
implementation phases <strong>in</strong> order to ensure better climate ma<strong>in</strong>stream<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> the future. With regards<br />
to project plann<strong>in</strong>g phase, tak<strong>in</strong>g note of the considerable social, environmental and economic<br />
impacts of weather extremes, and the probability of <strong>in</strong>crease thereof, the projects should<br />
systematically <strong>in</strong>clude a longer-term strategy for address<strong>in</strong>g these challenges, beyond the immediate<br />
plann<strong>in</strong>g horizon of the development project. 64 Dur<strong>in</strong>g implementation, by <strong>in</strong>troduc<strong>in</strong>g specific<br />
modifications and adjustments to project activities (e.g. water harvest<strong>in</strong>g, reforestation, revegetation,<br />
adaptation monitor<strong>in</strong>g, carbon sequestration & monitor<strong>in</strong>g etc) the F<strong>in</strong>nish funded<br />
projects could even further strengthen livelihoods and the climate adaptive capacity on local and<br />
regional levels. Discussions with various project partners dur<strong>in</strong>g the assessment have shown a<br />
profound understand<strong>in</strong>g of the importance of climate adaptation with<strong>in</strong> the projects and an <strong>in</strong>terest<br />
<strong>in</strong> further strengthen<strong>in</strong>g the climate adaptation dimension of the projects.<br />
In l<strong>in</strong>e with experiences from other <strong>in</strong>ternational climate ma<strong>in</strong>stream<strong>in</strong>g efforts, the assessment<br />
f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>gs support immediate follow-up measures <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia and other develop<strong>in</strong>g partner countries.<br />
A phased approach, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g an <strong>in</strong>itial screen<strong>in</strong>g + <strong>in</strong>-depth risk assessment, when/where required<br />
due to high climate risks and/or high adaptation strengthen<strong>in</strong>g potential, allows an efficient and<br />
focused use of resources <strong>in</strong> climate ma<strong>in</strong>stream<strong>in</strong>g efforts. While keep<strong>in</strong>g the screen<strong>in</strong>g process<br />
flexible and light, relevant national and local level stakeholders and key persons for project<br />
implementation should be actively <strong>in</strong>volved. This will ensure the commitment to climate screen<strong>in</strong>g<br />
follow-up and help build national and local awareness, capacity and ownership. In addition to<br />
national partners, the lessons learned from all climate ma<strong>in</strong>stream<strong>in</strong>g activities <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia should be<br />
actively shared with the <strong>in</strong>ternational community.<br />
64 This f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>g concurs with lessons learned from other studies, not<strong>in</strong>g that development projects and plans are reasonably<br />
well designed relative to average climatic risks but pay much less attention to risks associated with climate variability and<br />
extreme events, which is result<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> rapidly ris<strong>in</strong>g disaster losses.<br />
40
Appendix<br />
Annex I. Ethiopia <strong>Climate</strong> Change Implications for F<strong>in</strong>land<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> change is one of the central challenges fac<strong>in</strong>g humanity <strong>in</strong> the 21st century. The way <strong>in</strong><br />
which we will address it will have profound implications for human development <strong>in</strong> different parts of<br />
the planet.<br />
This annex studies some of the climate challenges that Ethiopia is already fac<strong>in</strong>g and what the<br />
implications could mean for F<strong>in</strong>land. The cases, which are look<strong>in</strong>g at the potential implications<br />
through trade, security, conflict and human displacement <strong>in</strong>terl<strong>in</strong>kages highlight the urgent need to<br />
strengthen the adaptive capacity of a country such as Ethiopia <strong>in</strong> view of on-go<strong>in</strong>g and still<br />
accelerat<strong>in</strong>g climate change.<br />
While po<strong>in</strong>t<strong>in</strong>g out several important <strong>in</strong>terl<strong>in</strong>kages that have to be taken <strong>in</strong>to account <strong>in</strong> Ethiopian<br />
and F<strong>in</strong>nish-Ethiopian development efforts, the cases provide a strong argument for keep<strong>in</strong>g the<br />
focus of developed countries <strong>in</strong> particular, and the more advanced develop<strong>in</strong>g countries, on<br />
immediate and considerable climate mitigation efforts – adaptation is necessary but only part of a<br />
susta<strong>in</strong>able long-term solution.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> change and trade<br />
Introduction<br />
In order to assess impacts of climate change to a country’s economy, it is necessary to have<br />
estimates of the impacts and costs of climate change (be it gradual temperature <strong>in</strong>creases, changed<br />
precipitation patters, <strong>in</strong>creased climate variability or weather extremes) on different socio-economic<br />
activities. In many countries <strong>in</strong>formation (qualitative and quantitative) on costs is not readily<br />
available. In particular <strong>in</strong> develop<strong>in</strong>g countries climate data on observed climatic changes is rarely<br />
recorded <strong>in</strong> a consistent manner over time, and where it exists it is often <strong>in</strong> a form that requires<br />
additional work before it can be used.<br />
However, certa<strong>in</strong> overall trends and requirements for socio-economic transformations, due to<br />
climate change and policy responses thereto, can be identified. <strong>Climate</strong> change will have<br />
implications for economic activities through production, consumption and <strong>in</strong>ternational trade.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> change may h<strong>in</strong>der economic growth and thereby also worsen poverty and social <strong>in</strong>stability<br />
(see more on climate change and conflict <strong>in</strong> Chapter 2). Figure 1 presents how greenhouse gas<br />
emissions create socio-economic impacts. Respond<strong>in</strong>g to climate change will require a fundamental<br />
41
estructur<strong>in</strong>g across key economic sectors such as energy, <strong>in</strong>dustry, transportation and agriculture. It<br />
will also require action with<strong>in</strong> a wide range of global regulatory frameworks, well beyond the climate<br />
regime itself. 65<br />
Population, technology, production, consumption<br />
Emissions<br />
Atmospheric concentrations<br />
Radiative forc<strong>in</strong>g and global climate<br />
Regional climate and weather<br />
Direct impacts (e.g. crops, forests, ecosystems)<br />
Socio-economic impacts<br />
Figure 1. Modell<strong>in</strong>g climate change from emissions to impacts 66<br />
A global and swift energy transition will be necessary to move to a low-carbon economy path.<br />
Improvements <strong>in</strong> the generation and use of energy as well as development and diffusion of new and<br />
clean sources of energy are needed. 67 Also land use will require a lot of attention due to climate<br />
change as agriculture and forestry cumulatively account for over 30 percent of global carbon<br />
emissions, with e.g. deforestation and forest degradation contribut<strong>in</strong>g to approximately 18 percent<br />
of global carbon emissions. 68<br />
Production and trade patterns are likely to change as some regions become less suited to<br />
agricultural production, and others become better adapted. Currently, experts anticipate that the<br />
production potential of mid- to high-latitudes is likely to <strong>in</strong>crease, and to decrease <strong>in</strong> low latitudes.<br />
As a result, trade flows of high-latitude and mid-latitude products are expected to <strong>in</strong>crease, with<br />
products such as cereals and livestock products be<strong>in</strong>g exported towards low-latitude regions.<br />
However, the exact nature of these shifts <strong>in</strong> production and trade patterns rema<strong>in</strong>s unclear, and<br />
more research is needed before policy-makers can properly understand the likely implications. 69<br />
As countries <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>gly focus on address<strong>in</strong>g their adaptation needs, trade rema<strong>in</strong>s largely<br />
unchartered territory. Sectors such as agriculture that provide the greatest trade potential for many<br />
develop<strong>in</strong>g countries will be most affected by climate change, and therefore the most <strong>in</strong> need of<br />
65<br />
Crick & Dougherty (2006: 8), ICTSD (2008: 1)<br />
66<br />
Stern (2006:146)<br />
67<br />
ICTSD (2008: xii)<br />
68<br />
The three ma<strong>in</strong> areas for mitigat<strong>in</strong>g climate change us<strong>in</strong>g forestry and wood products are:, i) activities that reduce<br />
greenhouse gas emissions from forests, ii) activities that help ma<strong>in</strong>ta<strong>in</strong> the ability of forests to store carbon (such as<br />
management techniques <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g low impact logg<strong>in</strong>g, and long-term use of forests and forests products) and iii) activities<br />
that expand the capacity of forests to store carbon (such as reforestation and agroforestry). ICTSD 2008: xiii<br />
69<br />
ICTSD 2008: 18<br />
42
adaptation. The Intergovernmental Panel on <strong>Climate</strong> Change (IPCC) forecasts that by 2020, ra<strong>in</strong>-fed<br />
agricultural production <strong>in</strong> several African countries will decl<strong>in</strong>e by 50 percent. On the other hand, <strong>in</strong><br />
temperate regions, production may <strong>in</strong>crease due to warmer weather, allow<strong>in</strong>g the generation of a<br />
surplus. Such changes are likely to affect patterns of <strong>in</strong>ternational trade, with ga<strong>in</strong>s <strong>in</strong> some places<br />
and losses <strong>in</strong> others, <strong>in</strong> ways that are yet to be fully understood. In addition, the changes <strong>in</strong> energy<br />
prices as well as shape and structure of a post-2012 climate agreement could have considerable<br />
trade related implications for develop<strong>in</strong>g countries. As many poor countries depend on export<br />
revenues from few sectors, <strong>in</strong> particular agriculture, these economic implications need to be given<br />
careful consideration <strong>in</strong> trade and climate policy processes. 70<br />
Impacts on Ethiopia<br />
Ethiopia’s major <strong>in</strong>dustry is agriculture and animal husbandry (80 % of total employment).<br />
Government and services account for 12 % and <strong>in</strong>dustry and construction 8 %. Agriculture accounts<br />
for nearly half the country's GDP, 60% of its exports and 80% of total employment. Major trad<strong>in</strong>g<br />
partners are Saudi Arabia, Djibouti, US, Germany, Ch<strong>in</strong>a, Japan, Italy and India. 71 Coffee is critical to<br />
the Ethiopian economy with exports of some $350 million <strong>in</strong> 2006, but historically low prices have<br />
seen many farmers switch<strong>in</strong>g to other crops to supplement <strong>in</strong>come.<br />
The Ethiopian economy has done well <strong>in</strong> recent years, with GDP grow<strong>in</strong>g by 11.4% <strong>in</strong> 2006-07 and<br />
with the poverty headcount reduc<strong>in</strong>g from 44% <strong>in</strong> 1999/2000 to 39% <strong>in</strong> the recent 2004/05 survey.<br />
There have been important recent ga<strong>in</strong>s, especially <strong>in</strong> human development <strong>in</strong>dicators, transport, the<br />
<strong>in</strong>vestment climate, small town development, and the fight aga<strong>in</strong>st food <strong>in</strong>security. Pro-poor<br />
spend<strong>in</strong>g as a share of the budget has risen from 41% <strong>in</strong> 1997/98 to 62% <strong>in</strong> 2005/06. The Country<br />
Economic Memorandum 2006 (CEM) on Growth and Governance f<strong>in</strong>ds that important progress has<br />
been achieved <strong>in</strong> the past decade, largely driven by improved <strong>in</strong>stitutions, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g at the regional<br />
and local levels, which have been able to deliver a scal<strong>in</strong>g-up o f services and <strong>in</strong>frastructure. 72<br />
However, significant challenges rema<strong>in</strong> to meet the Millennium <strong>Development</strong> Goals (MDGs),<br />
especially the goal of halv<strong>in</strong>g poverty by 2015, particularly consider<strong>in</strong>g that the recent progress is<br />
from a very low base and that the Ethiopian economy rema<strong>in</strong>s highly vulnerable to climate shocks.<br />
Inflation was high (18% dur<strong>in</strong>g 2006/07), with associated <strong>in</strong>creases <strong>in</strong> food prices. Imports have been<br />
grow<strong>in</strong>g faster than exports, enlarg<strong>in</strong>g the trade deficit. However, public expenditure has been well<br />
managed <strong>in</strong> recent years and the fiscal deficit has reduced from 4.6% of GDP <strong>in</strong> 2005/06 to 3.6% of<br />
GDP <strong>in</strong> 2006/07. 73<br />
The Ethiopian agricultural sector is dom<strong>in</strong>ated by small-scale farmers who employ largely ra<strong>in</strong>-fed<br />
and traditional practices – a state which renders Ethiopia highly vulnerable to climate variability, and<br />
thus to climate change. An <strong>in</strong>dication of the impact that climate variability and climate change has<br />
70 ICTSD 2008: xv<br />
71 http://www.fco.gov.uk/en/about-the-fco/country-profiles/sub-saharan-africa/ethiopia?profile=economy&pg=2<br />
72 World Bank (2008:9)<br />
73 World Bank (2008:9)<br />
43
on its economy is illustrated <strong>in</strong> Figure 2, which shows that economic growth as measured by GDP is<br />
strongly correlated with ra<strong>in</strong>fall patterns. 74<br />
Figure 2. Ra<strong>in</strong>fall variation around the mean and GDP growth <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia 75<br />
It is not uncommon to observe an upward and downward relationship with ra<strong>in</strong>fall and GDP and<br />
agricultural GDP, the most def<strong>in</strong>ite ones be<strong>in</strong>g around the drought years of 1984/85, 1994, 1998,<br />
and 2002/2003. Loss of export earn<strong>in</strong>gs dur<strong>in</strong>g drought years are consistently double or triple the<br />
percentage losses of agricultural GDP. For example, <strong>in</strong> 1978 when a ra<strong>in</strong> shortage of 21% occurred,<br />
export loss was 8% while agricultural GDP decreased by about 1.6%. The 1983/84 drought had left a<br />
20% reduction of exports <strong>in</strong> 1984 and successive slumps of 14% and 3% <strong>in</strong> the years that followed. 76<br />
Ra<strong>in</strong>fall <strong>in</strong> many parts of Ethiopia, <strong>in</strong> the Belg season and <strong>in</strong> its tim<strong>in</strong>g shows high levels of variability.<br />
Major droughts may result <strong>in</strong> sharp reductions <strong>in</strong> agricultural output, related productive activity, and<br />
employment. This <strong>in</strong> turn can lead to lower agricultural export earn<strong>in</strong>gs and other losses associated<br />
with a decl<strong>in</strong>e <strong>in</strong> rural <strong>in</strong>come, reduced consumption and <strong>in</strong>vestment, and destock<strong>in</strong>g and may have<br />
additional multiplier effects on the monetary economy. Figure 3 presents Ethiopia’s various sectors’<br />
vulnerability to climate change. Ethiopia’s agriculture and water resources sectors are <strong>in</strong> particular at<br />
risk. While historically floods have never been a major economic hazard <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia (with exceptions<br />
<strong>in</strong> the Awash River) recent years have seen significant socio-economic disruption due to flood<strong>in</strong>g (e.g.<br />
1997, 2006). 77<br />
74 Crick & Dougherty (2006: 1)<br />
75 Crick & Dougherty (2006: 1)<br />
76 World Bank (2006).<br />
77 Crick & Dougherty (2006: 8-9)<br />
44
Figure 3. Impacts of climate change on various sectors <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia 78<br />
Layered on top of these, prevail<strong>in</strong>g conditions of poverty, environmental and climatic factors create<br />
a number of press<strong>in</strong>g challenges for Ethiopia. The depletion of forests – primarily for household fuel<br />
use – threatens species and communities, dim<strong>in</strong>ishes tourism potential and reduces other valuable<br />
services forests provide. This example represents the type of current environmental concerns that<br />
could be exacerbated under climate change conditions. However, very little work has been done to<br />
quantify the economic effects of climate variability or extremes <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia, despite the high profile<br />
and significant impacts that e.g. droughts have had. 79<br />
Potential implications to F<strong>in</strong>land<br />
In 2008, the value of imports from Ethiopia to F<strong>in</strong>land was 6.3 million euro and exports to Ethiopia<br />
were 5.5 million euro. The share of imports and exports from and to Ethiopia was close to 0 % from<br />
total F<strong>in</strong>nish imports and exports. Ethiopia is <strong>in</strong> 88th place <strong>in</strong> the list of import<strong>in</strong>g countries to<br />
F<strong>in</strong>land accord<strong>in</strong>g to magnitude, 80 <strong>in</strong>dicat<strong>in</strong>g that trade between Ethiopia and F<strong>in</strong>land is currently<br />
very limited. Imports from Ethiopia to F<strong>in</strong>land <strong>in</strong>clude coffee, leather and leather products as well as<br />
textile fabrics and garments. F<strong>in</strong>land exports to Ethiopia equipment and mach<strong>in</strong>ery, paper,<br />
cardboard chemicals and medic<strong>in</strong>e 81 . F<strong>in</strong>land operates <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia ma<strong>in</strong>ly <strong>in</strong> terms of development<br />
cooperation. As trade between F<strong>in</strong>land and Ethiopia is <strong>in</strong>significant, climate change impacts on<br />
Ethiopia will have few trade-related implications to F<strong>in</strong>land despite the severe impacts it will have on<br />
Ethiopia’s own economy and trade.<br />
In development cooperation, F<strong>in</strong>land should assist Ethiopia <strong>in</strong> susta<strong>in</strong>able agriculture methods,<br />
which produce better crop productivity and tolerate better climate change conditions. In addition,<br />
alternative livelihoods should be encouraged and supported to reduce climate change vulnerability<br />
of agricultural livelihoods as well as to support Ethiopia’s accelerated path to development. One of<br />
the exist<strong>in</strong>g problems to this is Ethiopia's land tenure system, where the government owns all land<br />
and provides long-term leases to the tenants. This system cont<strong>in</strong>ues to hamper growth <strong>in</strong> the<br />
<strong>in</strong>dustrial sector as entrepreneurs are unable to use land as collateral for loans. Improv<strong>in</strong>g farm<br />
productivity is also challeng<strong>in</strong>g as low productivity derives from a handful of reasons: lack of<br />
agricultural <strong>in</strong>puts, outdated farm<strong>in</strong>g methods, deforestation, overgraz<strong>in</strong>g, soil erosion, widespread<br />
78 Conway et al. (2007: 29-30).<br />
79 Crick & Dougherty (2006: 5, 8-9)<br />
80 National Board of Customs, F<strong>in</strong>land: www.tulli.fi<br />
81 Embassy of F<strong>in</strong>land <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia: http://www.f<strong>in</strong>land.org.et/Public/default.aspx?nodeid=31695<br />
45
land degradation, <strong>in</strong>secure land tenure as well as recurrent droughts and floods. Consequently,<br />
climate adaptation should be systematically ma<strong>in</strong>streamed <strong>in</strong>to all development plann<strong>in</strong>g and<br />
programm<strong>in</strong>g as droughts as well as war with Eritrea <strong>in</strong> 1998-2000 have buffeted the economy. The<br />
on-go<strong>in</strong>g F<strong>in</strong>nish development cooperation activities are focus<strong>in</strong>g on many of the key challenges<br />
above (<strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g a.o. <strong>in</strong>tegrated watershed management, susta<strong>in</strong>able land management and<br />
adm<strong>in</strong>istration, education) and provide a good basis to further support Ethiopia <strong>in</strong> its efforts to<br />
address the development and climate challenges <strong>in</strong> a comprehensive manner.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> change and security<br />
Introduction<br />
The United Nations Security Council held its first meet<strong>in</strong>g on climate change, energy supplies and<br />
security <strong>in</strong> April 2007. Some countries were hesitant to deal with such a topic at the council, but the<br />
majority however agreed that climate change poses a threat to <strong>in</strong>ternational security, and the<br />
Security Council is an appropriate forum to discuss the matter. 82<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> change is perceived to threaten exist<strong>in</strong>g drivers of conflict and therefore threaten achieved<br />
development across many countries. One of the areas most likely to suffer from the threats posed<br />
by climate change to <strong>in</strong>ternational peace and security is Africa. Conflict of Darfur is considered to be<br />
an example which has been driven partly by climate change and environmental degradation. Ra<strong>in</strong>fall<br />
has fallen by 30 % dur<strong>in</strong>g the past 40 years and the Sahara has advanced by more than a mile each<br />
year. This has led to <strong>in</strong>creased tensions among farmers and herders and led to conflict. However, <strong>in</strong><br />
this and other <strong>in</strong>stances, environmental considerations are only partly to blame. It is important to<br />
recognise that a range of climate-related shocks and stresses can raise the risk of conflict. 83<br />
Predict<strong>in</strong>g conflicts alone is challeng<strong>in</strong>g and analys<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> detail the role of climate change to future<br />
conflicts is difficult. In some parts of the world, climate change is contribut<strong>in</strong>g to socio-political<br />
tensions but only as one factor amongst other, more immediate environmental triggers like water<br />
shortages, food <strong>in</strong>security and land degradation. However, certa<strong>in</strong> potential paths can be identified.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> change can create scarcity of resources, such as water resources, which leads to competition<br />
and conflict. <strong>Climate</strong> change may further decrease local agricultural productivity and make global<br />
food prices <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>gly volatile, further politiciz<strong>in</strong>g the issues of food security. Violence can also<br />
arise when conflict-resolution <strong>in</strong>stitutions and mechanisms fail. But conflict is the result of many<br />
social factors such as ethnicity, adverse economic conditions and low levels of <strong>in</strong>ternational trade. 84<br />
Figure 4 shows where drought-risk hotspots <strong>in</strong>tersect with areas already considered be<strong>in</strong>g at high<br />
and extreme risk of conflict. Accord<strong>in</strong>g to the map, climate change raises the risk of conflict <strong>in</strong>,<br />
among others, east Africa. However, dur<strong>in</strong>g the next 20-30 year period, the additional degree of risk<br />
result<strong>in</strong>g from climate change is uncerta<strong>in</strong> and probably not substantial. Dur<strong>in</strong>g this short timeframe,<br />
82 Brown et al. 2007: 1142-1143<br />
83 Brown et al. (2007: 1142-1143); Ehrhart et al. (2008: 19)<br />
84 Brown et al. (2007: 1147-1148, 1150); Ehrhart et al. (2008: 19); IISD (2009: 2); UNEP (2009: 5)<br />
46
accord<strong>in</strong>g to some estimates, it may be more important to understand and address how conflict<br />
underm<strong>in</strong>es societies’ capacity to adapt to climate change. 85<br />
Figure 4. Drought hotspots/conflict 86<br />
The potential consequences of climate change for water availability, food security, prevalence of<br />
disease, coastal boundaries, and population distribution may aggravate exist<strong>in</strong>g tensions and<br />
generate new conflicts. Conflicts can occur when there is a local abundance of valuable resources<br />
and acute poverty or lack of <strong>in</strong>come opportunities. This creates an <strong>in</strong>centive for groups to attempt to<br />
capture them. In addition, conflicts can occur over the direct use of scarce resources such as land,<br />
forests, water and wildlife. Also economies that are dependent on the export of a narrow set of<br />
primary commodities are more likely to be politically fragile. A determ<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g factor is how natural<br />
resources, the environment, poverty and <strong>in</strong>equality are governed. 87<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> change adaptation can therefore provide an opportunity for positive, fruitful <strong>in</strong>vention by<br />
the <strong>in</strong>ternational community to foster peaceful economic cooperation among compet<strong>in</strong>g groups of<br />
resource users <strong>in</strong> regions where achiev<strong>in</strong>g susta<strong>in</strong>able livelihoods is a challenge. Design<strong>in</strong>g and<br />
implement<strong>in</strong>g adaptation strategies can either create or resolve conflicts, depend<strong>in</strong>g on how<br />
adaptation is implemented. Alternative livelihood strategies can encourage local dependency on<br />
activities that prove to be unreliable and therefore <strong>in</strong>crease vulnerability to climate stress and<br />
potentially conflict. At best, adaptation can help direct money and attention to reduce vulnerability<br />
to climate change and also environmental degradation, poverty and conflict. 88<br />
85 Ehrhart et al. (2008: 19)<br />
86 Ehrhart et al. (2008: 22)<br />
87 UNEP (2009: 5, 8-10); Ehrhart et al. (2008: 19)<br />
88 Brown et al. (2007: 1150-1152)<br />
47
Impacts on Ethiopia<br />
Ethiopia is an authoritarian state. Authoritarianism derives from history, feudal society and from a<br />
long-term communist government era, which came to an end <strong>in</strong> the 1991 revolution. This tradition<br />
can be still seen <strong>in</strong> present hierarchical structures, <strong>in</strong>equality and slow democracy development.<br />
There have been three democratic elections s<strong>in</strong>ce 1995, but they have been characterized by<br />
unclarities <strong>in</strong> vote count<strong>in</strong>g and been disturbed by opposition parties. Ethiopia recognizes civil rights<br />
but despite this freedom of speech, freedom of the press and political op<strong>in</strong>ion freedom has not<br />
materialized.<br />
Ethiopia is a potential hotspot for conflicts associated with climate change due to the fact that it is<br />
already a poor state (Figure 5). Due to climate change (see chapter 2) Ethiopia is likely to suffer<br />
particularly from <strong>in</strong>creased drought and extreme precipitation which will challenge peace and<br />
security questions. Additionally Ethiopia will be affected by situations <strong>in</strong> neighbour<strong>in</strong>g states and<br />
obviously any climatic changes and environmental pressures <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia affects its neighbour<strong>in</strong>g<br />
countries and vice versa. Access to water <strong>in</strong> the countries of the Nile bas<strong>in</strong> is dependent on runoff<br />
from the Ethiopian highlands and the level of Lake Victoria, both of which are sensitive to variations<br />
<strong>in</strong> ra<strong>in</strong>fall. Ethiopia is <strong>in</strong> a region already characterised by weak states, civil wars and major refugee<br />
flows (e.g. Somalia, Chad, Sudan, Niger) and climate change is predicted to cause additional<br />
environmental stress and social crises such as drought, harvest failure and water scarcity 89 .<br />
89 WBGU 2007: 3<br />
Figure 5. Security risks associated with climate change: Selected hotspots<br />
48
For example <strong>in</strong> the Lake Tana sub-bas<strong>in</strong> there are a number of issues contribut<strong>in</strong>g to emerg<strong>in</strong>g<br />
conflicts over resource uses and threats to the Lake Tana ecosystem. These <strong>in</strong>clude 90 :<br />
• Lake regulation;<br />
• Grow<strong>in</strong>g population and livestock pressures on land, and serious land degradation;<br />
• Increas<strong>in</strong>g demand for energy;<br />
• Uncoord<strong>in</strong>ated water resources development, an <strong>in</strong>adequate policy framework,<br />
• Inadequate scientific and socio-economic <strong>in</strong>formation and knowledge on limnology, lack of a<br />
clear <strong>in</strong>stitutional responsibility for the management of Lake Tana; fisheries, wetlands, and<br />
other biological resources; and<br />
• Absence of a regulatory framework for allocat<strong>in</strong>g water, controll<strong>in</strong>g pollution, manag<strong>in</strong>g<br />
watersheds, regulat<strong>in</strong>g fisheries, and protect<strong>in</strong>g forests and wetlands.<br />
There are also major human factors at play <strong>in</strong> the Boma area. The food security status of the<br />
populations <strong>in</strong> this area has deteriorated, partially due to drought and this has led to conflicts. The<br />
populations <strong>in</strong> this area are also overly-dependent on natural resources for their livelihoods. The<br />
unsusta<strong>in</strong>able exploitation of wildlife and other natural resources are a direct threat to the<br />
traditional livelihoods of local people and susta<strong>in</strong>able development. 91<br />
Potential implications to F<strong>in</strong>land<br />
In June 2000, after two years of fight<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> a border dispute, Ethiopia and Eritrea signed a cessation<br />
of hostilities agreement. In July, the Security Council set up United Nations Mission <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia and<br />
Eritrea (UNMEE) to ma<strong>in</strong>ta<strong>in</strong> liaison with the parties and establish a mechanism for verify<strong>in</strong>g the<br />
ceasefire. In September 2000, the Council authorized UNMEE to monitor the cessation of hostilities<br />
and to help ensure the observance of security commitments. With the decision of the Security<br />
Council, the UNMEE mandate was term<strong>in</strong>ated <strong>in</strong> July 2008. The Council decision came <strong>in</strong> response to<br />
crippl<strong>in</strong>g restrictions imposed by Eritrea on UNMEE, as well as the cutt<strong>in</strong>g off of fuel supplies –<br />
mak<strong>in</strong>g it impossible for the operation to cont<strong>in</strong>ue carry<strong>in</strong>g out its mandated tasks, and putt<strong>in</strong>g at<br />
risk the safety and security of UN personnel. 92<br />
F<strong>in</strong>land participated <strong>in</strong> UNMEE from the beg<strong>in</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g by provid<strong>in</strong>g military observers. A F<strong>in</strong>nish officer<br />
also commanded a contact office between UNMEE and Ethiopian officials <strong>in</strong> Addis Ababa. As<br />
mentioned <strong>in</strong> previous chapter, climate change may <strong>in</strong>tensify exist<strong>in</strong>g disputes and create new<br />
conflicts, which could <strong>in</strong>crease the need of F<strong>in</strong>nish peacekeepers and observers <strong>in</strong> the future. 93<br />
While the direct security implications for F<strong>in</strong>land may be considered m<strong>in</strong>imal, F<strong>in</strong>land should<br />
carefully take note of the multiple causes beh<strong>in</strong>d conflicts, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g environmental concerns, and<br />
work actively to reduce the vulnerability of Ethiopian society to climate change. In addition, cross-<br />
90 World Bank (2008: 27-28)<br />
91 Crick (2006: 57)<br />
92 http://www.un.org/Depts/dpko/missions/unmee/<strong>in</strong>dex.html<br />
93 http://www.mil.fi/rauhanturvaaja/operaatiot/etiopia.dsp<br />
49
order <strong>in</strong>itiatives, such as the Nile Bas<strong>in</strong> Initiative (<strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g F<strong>in</strong>nish support to ENTRO, the Eastern<br />
Nile Technical Regional Office, work<strong>in</strong>g together with Ethiopian, Sudanese and Egyptian stakeholders<br />
on <strong>in</strong>tegrated bas<strong>in</strong> management) may provide an important complement<strong>in</strong>g tool for other security<br />
and development efforts <strong>in</strong> the region<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> change and human displacement<br />
Introduction<br />
Migration to climatic changes is by far not a new issue. Scarce resources have driven people to flee<br />
previously throughout history. What dist<strong>in</strong>guishes the climate change we talk about now from<br />
previous climate changes is the speed of change and the magnitude of the impacts. In addition, the<br />
global scale of environmental changes and the potential of human agency to respond to it are new<br />
phenomena. 94<br />
Already <strong>in</strong> 1990 the IPCC noted that one of the greatest s<strong>in</strong>gle impacts of climate change might be<br />
on human migration due to shorel<strong>in</strong>e erosion, coastal flood<strong>in</strong>g and agricultural disruption. In the<br />
mid-1990s 25 million people were considered to have been forced from their homes and land<br />
because of serious environmental pressures such as pollution land degradation, droughts and<br />
natural disasters. This figure exceeded refugee figures from war and political persecution together. 95<br />
Accord<strong>in</strong>g to some estimations climate change could displace 200 million people by 2050. The figure<br />
would mean <strong>in</strong> practice that one <strong>in</strong> every 45 people <strong>in</strong> the world would be displaced by climate<br />
change <strong>in</strong> 2050. However, there are no certa<strong>in</strong>ties of exact figures because climate change impacts<br />
to human populations are not clearly known. <strong>Climate</strong> migrants will occur both from climate<br />
processes, which are slow-onset changes such as sea-level rise, sal<strong>in</strong>ization of agricultural land,<br />
desertification, grow<strong>in</strong>g water scarcity and food <strong>in</strong>security, as well as climate events, which are<br />
sudden and dramatic hazards such as monsoon floods, storms, hurricanes and typhoons. 96<br />
In addition non-climate drivers are equally important. Vulnerability to, for example, natural disasters<br />
depends vastly on the communities’ potentials to protect themselves from the impacts. Poor built<br />
houses, lack of warn<strong>in</strong>g systems and peoples’ ignorance of needed actions <strong>in</strong> the event of, for<br />
example, a storm, all <strong>in</strong>crease vulnerability. Therefore, a community’s vulnerability is a function of its<br />
exposure to climatic conditions such as a coastal location as well as the community’s adaptive<br />
capacity. 97<br />
Adaptive capacity varies by regions, countries and communities. Also national and <strong>in</strong>dividual wealth<br />
determ<strong>in</strong>es vulnerability and can enable better disaster risk reduction, disaster education and<br />
prompter responses. Richer countries have better potentials to protect their citizens and richer<br />
94 Boano et al. (2008: 5)<br />
95 Brown (2008a: 11)<br />
96 Brown (2008a: 11)<br />
97 Brown (2008a: 11-18)<br />
50
citizens have more options than poorer people. <strong>Climate</strong> change will have foremost an impact on<br />
already exist<strong>in</strong>g problems such as food security questions and water scarcity. But the impacts of<br />
climate change and amount of people displaced by climate change will depend, among others, on<br />
the temperature rise <strong>in</strong> the future. At the moment, there are only different k<strong>in</strong>ds of scenarios<br />
available as the future is impossible to predict precisely. Impacts on forced migration will depend on<br />
the follow<strong>in</strong>g issues 98 :<br />
- The quantity of future greenhouse gas emissions<br />
- The rate of future population growth and distribution<br />
- The meteorological evolution of climate change<br />
- The effectiveness of local and national cop<strong>in</strong>g and adaptation strategies<br />
Several scholars emphasise that it must be kept <strong>in</strong> m<strong>in</strong>d that migration is always due to several<br />
reasons: environmental, economical and social. When climate stresses co<strong>in</strong>cide with economical<br />
and/or social stresses, potential for forced migration <strong>in</strong>creases significantly. Thus, environmental<br />
processes are hard to separate from other structures. Migration is typically not the first adaptive<br />
measure for households. Only when immediate needs cannot be met and communities and<br />
governments have failed <strong>in</strong> giv<strong>in</strong>g assistance, people will consider migration as an option. Especially<br />
migration related to gradual climate processes requires access to money, family networks and<br />
contacts, if people have any choice. Most people displaced by climate change will look for new<br />
homes with<strong>in</strong> their own home country where they have exist<strong>in</strong>g cultural or ethnic bonds.<br />
Intercont<strong>in</strong>ental migration is likely to follow pre-exist<strong>in</strong>g paths and old colonial relationships. 99<br />
People’s vulnerability to environmental change reflects a comb<strong>in</strong>ation of their exposure, sensitivity<br />
and adaptive capacity. As a result, degree of vulnerability varies widely with<strong>in</strong> countries,<br />
communities and even households. For <strong>in</strong>stance, poor people’s exposure to the impacts of climate<br />
change is often higher than others because economic and political forces conf<strong>in</strong>e them to liv<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong><br />
high-risk landscapes. Meanwhile, one of the most important factors shap<strong>in</strong>g adaptive capacity is<br />
people’s access to and control over natural, human, social, physical, political and f<strong>in</strong>ancial resources.<br />
Women are especially at risk as gendered roles, as well as cultural prescriptions and prohibitions,<br />
make it far more difficult for most women and female-headed households to migrate <strong>in</strong> response to<br />
environmental change. 100<br />
The problem with climate migrants is their “<strong>in</strong>visibility” <strong>in</strong> the refugee framework. The term<br />
environmental refugee is not a legal term <strong>in</strong> the sense of the 1951 Convention or the 1967 Protocol<br />
on refugee def<strong>in</strong>itions. The term forced migrant has been suggested to be more appropriate as it<br />
characterises people flee<strong>in</strong>g their place of residence due to environmental stress, whether they are<br />
<strong>in</strong>ternally displaced or crossed <strong>in</strong>ternational borders. There is also little <strong>in</strong>ternational <strong>in</strong>terest <strong>in</strong><br />
extend<strong>in</strong>g the refugee regime to apply<strong>in</strong>g to environmental or climate refugees. Rather receiv<strong>in</strong>g<br />
states are will<strong>in</strong>g to restrict the refugee regime than extend it. Despite this, the <strong>in</strong>ternational<br />
98 Brown (2008a: 18, 27)<br />
99 Brown (2008a:22-24; Boano 2008: 9)<br />
100 Warner et al (2009: 21)<br />
51
community will have to deal with the large-scale displacement of climate change and reth<strong>in</strong>k current<br />
policies. 101<br />
Impacts on Ethiopia<br />
As described <strong>in</strong> the previous chapter on climate change and security, Ethiopia is highly vulnerable to<br />
climate change impacts and to potential conflicts. These factors can <strong>in</strong>crease human displacement <strong>in</strong><br />
the future. Figure 6 presents a displacement <strong>in</strong>dex of current and future social unrest and thus<br />
<strong>in</strong>dicates vulnerability. The <strong>in</strong>dex <strong>in</strong>cludes both refugees by country of orig<strong>in</strong> as well as <strong>in</strong>ternally<br />
displaced people (IDPs).<br />
Figure 6. Displacement risk <strong>in</strong>dex<br />
Figure 6 presents how Ethiopia has a relatively high displacement <strong>in</strong>dex. So far there is no modell<strong>in</strong>g<br />
on the potential amount of forced migrants potentially <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia. Potential displacement depends<br />
on how climate change proceeds, political and economic situation and the availability of natural<br />
resources. As stated above climate change forced migrants tend to flee to nearby areas, foremost<br />
with<strong>in</strong> the country, where there are exist<strong>in</strong>g cultural or ethnic bonds. However, if conflicts break out<br />
with<strong>in</strong> the country <strong>in</strong> the future, this could create potential refugees. Displacement may occur also<br />
depend<strong>in</strong>g on events <strong>in</strong> neighbour<strong>in</strong>g countries and their impacts to the regional area.<br />
Currently, forced migration <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia is classified <strong>in</strong> three categories: <strong>in</strong>ternally displaced persons<br />
(IDPs), refugees <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia, and traffick<strong>in</strong>g. Conflict-<strong>in</strong>duced displacement is the most significant<br />
form of <strong>in</strong>ternal displacement <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia. The Ethio-Eritrean war, which erupted <strong>in</strong> May 1998,<br />
accounted for the largest number of displaced people s<strong>in</strong>ce the current government came to power<br />
101 Boano (2008: 12; Brown 2008b: 41)<br />
52
<strong>in</strong> 1991. Over 350,000 people were displaced at the start of the war from areas along the common<br />
border of the Tigray and Afar regions. An additional 95,000 Ethiopians were deported from Eritrea,<br />
and as the conflict escalated, people resid<strong>in</strong>g close to the borderl<strong>in</strong>es were evacuated. Drought<strong>in</strong>duced<br />
and fam<strong>in</strong>e-<strong>in</strong>duced displacements are chronic problems <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia and e.g. development<strong>in</strong>duced<br />
displacement occurs due to road construction. Relevant issues concern<strong>in</strong>g IDPs <strong>in</strong>clude the<br />
presence of landm<strong>in</strong>es, HIV/AIDS, and problems of the families of deceased soldiers. Refugees <strong>in</strong><br />
Ethiopia - pr<strong>in</strong>cipally Somalis, Sudanese, and Eritreans – often arrive as a result of ongo<strong>in</strong>g political<br />
and civil unrest <strong>in</strong> the Horn of Africa as well as natural disasters (mostly drought). Traffick<strong>in</strong>g,<br />
particularly of women and young girls, is another significant form of forced migration <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia. 102<br />
Implications to F<strong>in</strong>land<br />
In 2008, 668 Ethiopians immigrated to F<strong>in</strong>land. Out of the immigrants 430 were men and 238<br />
women. The figures <strong>in</strong>clude Ethiopians who have lived a year or more <strong>in</strong> F<strong>in</strong>land. The largest group<br />
of immigrants were 18-40 year old men. Overall, the amount of immigrants from Ethiopia to F<strong>in</strong>land<br />
is small <strong>in</strong> comparison to the amount of all immigrants arriv<strong>in</strong>g to F<strong>in</strong>land. Asylum seekers represent<br />
only a small proportion of Ethiopian immigrants as other reasons such as family, study and work<br />
immigration are more dom<strong>in</strong>ant. 103<br />
As mentioned <strong>in</strong> previous chapters, climate change could <strong>in</strong>crease potentials of conflict and<br />
therefore create refugees and asylum seekers even to F<strong>in</strong>land. <strong>Climate</strong> change itself will not create<br />
Ethiopian immigrants to F<strong>in</strong>land as people tend to move to local areas when liv<strong>in</strong>g conditions worsen.<br />
Already now, Ethiopia’s politicised ethnicity, where the country has been divided up <strong>in</strong>to a number<br />
of self-determ<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g ethnically def<strong>in</strong>ed and adm<strong>in</strong>istrated territories, has left people less will<strong>in</strong>g to<br />
migrate <strong>in</strong>to regions adm<strong>in</strong>istered by ethnic groups other than their own 104 .<br />
In development cooperation, actions mentioned <strong>in</strong> previous chapters are also valid <strong>in</strong> the case of<br />
human displacement. <strong>Climate</strong> processes require long-term plann<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> development cooperation <strong>in</strong><br />
terms of adaptation measures and secur<strong>in</strong>g livelihoods. Sudden climate events may demand<br />
<strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g amounts of emergency relief and humanitarian assistance from F<strong>in</strong>land and other donor<br />
countries. Both sudden and slow-onset disasters will require substantial protection and<br />
humanitarian assistance because displacement creates new, or exacerbates pre-exist<strong>in</strong>g<br />
vulnerabilities. F<strong>in</strong>land should support Ethiopia <strong>in</strong> reduc<strong>in</strong>g risks created by climate change and<br />
vulnerabilities caused by it. In addition, F<strong>in</strong>land can support Ethiopia <strong>in</strong> protect<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>dividuals<br />
displaced by the effects of climate change. Adaptation measures should cover protection of and<br />
assistance for the displaced. Measures to mitigate and reduce risks of disasters should <strong>in</strong>clude<br />
measures such as disaster risk mapp<strong>in</strong>g, early warn<strong>in</strong>g systems, predeterm<strong>in</strong>ation of evacuation<br />
routes, preposition<strong>in</strong>g of humanitarian aid, build<strong>in</strong>g capacities of local communities to deal with<br />
102 http://www.forcedmigration.org/browse/regional/ethiopia.htm<br />
103 Telephone discussion with Leena Hiljanen, F<strong>in</strong>nish Immigration Service/10.6.2009<br />
104 Morrissey (2008: 29)<br />
53
disasters and their consequences, evacuations and <strong>in</strong> some cases even permanent relocations away<br />
from danger zones etc. 105<br />
105 As recommended by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees<br />
54
Annex II. Activities supported by the Government of F<strong>in</strong>land <strong>in</strong> the water sector 106<br />
Brief Information on Ongo<strong>in</strong>g and Pipel<strong>in</strong>e GOF supported Water Cluster Programs<br />
Programme Target region(s) Key outcome(s) Duration of support Funds allocated (EURO) Implementation Status<br />
Rural Water Supply and Amhara 1. Susta<strong>in</strong>able community schemes f<strong>in</strong>anced by the Community <strong>Development</strong> Fund (CDF) mechanism; 2. 07/2007 - 06/2011 (4 years) 9 MEUR grant from F<strong>in</strong>land, on-go<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Environment Programme<br />
Enabl<strong>in</strong>g environment for community based management <strong>in</strong> all (programme) woredas; 3. Competent, efficient and<br />
1.12 MEUR from GOE and<br />
(RWSEP) Phase IV<br />
responsive TA provided to strengthen<strong>in</strong>g Government capacity. 4. 1.2 million people served with clean potable<br />
1.15 MEUR <strong>in</strong>-cash and <strong>in</strong>-<br />
water and improved sanitaion services 5. Institutionalized capacity at region, zone and woreda level to susta<strong>in</strong><br />
k<strong>in</strong>d from the participat<strong>in</strong>g<br />
CDF<br />
communities.<br />
Rural Water Supply,<br />
Sanitation and Hygiene<br />
Programme (Beni WASH),<br />
Plann<strong>in</strong>g Phase (EFY 2001)<br />
Benishangul-<br />
Gumuz<br />
Rural Water Supply, Benishangul-<br />
Sanitation and Hygiene Gumuz<br />
Programme (F<strong>in</strong>nWash<br />
BG), Implementation Phase<br />
Support to Capacity<br />
Build<strong>in</strong>g Pooled Fund for<br />
WASH (WASH Pool)<br />
Support to WASH sectoral<br />
appoach via Water and<br />
Sanitation Programme<br />
(WSP) of The World Bank<br />
Support to Eastern Nile<br />
Technical Regional Office<br />
(ENTRO)<br />
ENTRO-IDEN Watershed<br />
<strong>Management</strong> Project,<br />
T&BIWRDP,<br />
Implementation Phase<br />
Susta<strong>in</strong>able Land<br />
Mangement<br />
Support<strong>in</strong>g Poverty<br />
Reduction through<br />
Economic Growth and<br />
Rural development<br />
ENTRO-IDEN Watershed<br />
<strong>Management</strong> Project,<br />
Implementation Phase<br />
Plann<strong>in</strong>g Phase expected results are: (i) assess the potential for hand dug wells and spr<strong>in</strong>g development us<strong>in</strong>g 03/2008 - 06/2009 (15<br />
CDF fund<strong>in</strong>g mechanism; def<strong>in</strong>e programme area and scope; (ii) Socio-cultural studies, (iii) Human Resources months)<br />
<strong>Development</strong> needs assessment, iv) Hydrological study completed to support technology choices and CDF<br />
applicability; (v) capacity build<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> pilot woredas, (vi) physical implementation piloted and 75 WPs constructed by<br />
06/2009, and (vii) Programme Document for implementation phase prepared, appraised and approved.<br />
2.15 MEUR grant from<br />
F<strong>in</strong>land, 0.07 MEUR from<br />
GOE and 0.037 MEUR <strong>in</strong>cash<br />
and <strong>in</strong>-k<strong>in</strong>d from the<br />
participat<strong>in</strong>g communities.<br />
Implementation Phase expected results are: (i) all communities <strong>in</strong> target areas provided with water supply via 07/2009 - 06/2013 (4 years) 11,37 MEUR grant<br />
CDF, target figure 1000 WPs; (ii) all rural dwellers sencouraged and technically supported to reach sanitation<br />
UAP; (iii) communities able to implement and manage water and sanitation facilities, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g re-<strong>in</strong>vestment; (iv)<br />
woredas able to support communities; (v) regional bureaux able to coord<strong>in</strong>ate support to woredas; (vi) donors and<br />
NGOs able to implement CDF approach <strong>in</strong> their programmes.<br />
(<strong>in</strong>vestment + TA)<br />
The plann<strong>in</strong>g phase of the program started <strong>in</strong><br />
April 2008.The f<strong>in</strong>al draft of the program<br />
document is f<strong>in</strong>alized, based on an extensive<br />
appraisal.<br />
The procurement of TA consultancy f<strong>in</strong>ished,<br />
bilateral agreement with Ethiopia signed,<br />
commencement of work <strong>in</strong> July 2009.<br />
Ethiopia Coord<strong>in</strong>ated and enhanced capacity build<strong>in</strong>g support to the WASH sector 01/2009 - 12/2011 (3 years) Open The <strong>in</strong>tended Capacity-Build<strong>in</strong>g Pooled<br />
Fund idea has not materialized, GoF is<br />
realign<strong>in</strong>g its plans <strong>in</strong> order to def<strong>in</strong>e a<br />
feasible alternative for a sector capacity<br />
build<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>tervention. Proposals be<strong>in</strong>g<br />
drafted.<br />
Ethiopia Support the Regional states <strong>in</strong> the move to a sector-wide approach and the <strong>in</strong>troduction of Country Level Sector<br />
Information and Monitor<strong>in</strong>g Systems for the sector.<br />
Ethiopia, Egypt and Capacity Build<strong>in</strong>g support to Entro Office, contribut<strong>in</strong>g to the efforts of the Eastern Nile countries <strong>in</strong> better<br />
Sudan<br />
management of the River Nile as expressed <strong>in</strong> “2020 Operational Vision of the eastern Nile”<br />
Ethiopia, Amhara &<br />
Benishangul<br />
Gumuz<br />
Amhara and<br />
Benishangul<br />
Gumuz<br />
106 Status May/June 2009.<br />
TB Growth<br />
Corridor: Amhara<br />
and Benishangul<br />
Gumuz<br />
GoF <strong>in</strong>tends to provide f<strong>in</strong>ancial and technical support the Tana Beles Integrated Water Resources <strong>Development</strong><br />
Project of GoE and the World Bank. The project facilitates susta<strong>in</strong>able growth with<strong>in</strong> the Tana-Beles growth<br />
corridor, as identified <strong>in</strong> PASDEP, focus<strong>in</strong>g on capacity-build<strong>in</strong>g, and monitor<strong>in</strong>g and evaluation <strong>in</strong> the watershed<br />
management component of the project.<br />
Identification mission was conducted <strong>in</strong> March 2008, which recommended that GoF support SLM <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia,<br />
particularly <strong>in</strong> the topic of land adm<strong>in</strong>istration. The sector landscape has changesd somewhat s<strong>in</strong>ce then, and GoF<br />
is currently assess<strong>in</strong>g the situation based on the previous recommendations.<br />
GoF prepar<strong>in</strong>g a Concept Note concern<strong>in</strong>g possible support directly to the economic growth agenda ofthe Tana<br />
Beles Growth Corridor<br />
Sudan Prepared together regionally with, and a sister project to TBIWRMP; GoF is prepar<strong>in</strong>g a similar support to the<br />
EASTERN NILE WATERSHED MANAGEMENT PROJECT, support<strong>in</strong>g the Community Watershed <strong>Management</strong><br />
component<br />
01/2008 - 12/2010 (3 years) 1.15 MEUR grant The implementation is on go<strong>in</strong>g, trust fund<br />
agreement is signed with WB . The WASH<br />
M&E Frame Work is f<strong>in</strong>alized and is<br />
approved by all stakeholders<br />
10/2006 - 09/2009 (3 years) 1.0 MEUR <strong>in</strong> general budget<br />
support. Contribution<br />
channelled via Nile Bas<strong>in</strong><br />
Trust Fund (NBTF)<br />
adm<strong>in</strong>istered by WB<br />
2009 - 2012 5 MEUR: F<strong>in</strong>ancial<br />
contribution 3,5MEUR,<br />
Technical Assistance: 1,5<br />
MEUR<br />
on-go<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Trust Fund establishment with the World<br />
Bank <strong>in</strong> f<strong>in</strong>al stages. Selection of TA<br />
consultancy (watershed M&E) complete.<br />
Estimated time of commencement June<br />
2009<br />
2009 -2012 open Preparation mission for GOF engagement<br />
complete, mission recommendations under<br />
review<br />
2009- Open<br />
2009 - 2012 Maximum 9.25 MEUR;<br />
F<strong>in</strong>ancial Contribution 7Meur,<br />
Technical Assistance: 2,25<br />
Meur<br />
Initial plan to prepare for eventual<br />
engagement <strong>in</strong> 2010<br />
Expected date of effectiveness <strong>in</strong> 2009. TF<br />
agreement and TA TOR be<strong>in</strong>g drafted.<br />
55
Annex III. <strong>Climate</strong> risk screen<strong>in</strong>g & ma<strong>in</strong>stream<strong>in</strong>g approaches & tools 107<br />
Operational agency Tool name Substantive coverage Where and when applied?<br />
Asian <strong>Development</strong> Bank (ADB) <strong>Climate</strong>-FIRST (<strong>Climate</strong> Framework Integrat<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<strong>Risk</strong> Screen<strong>in</strong>g Tool)<br />
Danish International <strong>Development</strong><br />
Agency (DANIDA)<br />
Department for International<br />
<strong>Development</strong> (DFID), United K<strong>in</strong>gdom<br />
Dutch M<strong>in</strong>istry of Foreign Affairs<br />
(DGIS)<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> change screen<strong>in</strong>g matrix<br />
http://ccs-asia.l<strong>in</strong>ddal.net<br />
Opportunities and <strong>Risk</strong>s of <strong>Climate</strong> Change and<br />
Disasters (ORCHID), and<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Risk</strong> Impacts on Sectors and<br />
Programmes (CRISP)<br />
http://t<strong>in</strong>yurl.com/ccorchid<br />
German Technical <strong>Cooperation</strong> (GTZ) <strong>Climate</strong> check<br />
www.gtz.de/climate-check<br />
Swiss Agency for <strong>Development</strong> and<br />
<strong>Cooperation</strong> (SDC) / Inter-cooperation<br />
United States Agency for International<br />
<strong>Development</strong> (USAID)<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> risk screen<strong>in</strong>g software tool for rapid assessment of<br />
potential risk of projects from a number of pre-determ<strong>in</strong>ed climate<br />
change impacts and risk factors; classification of projects <strong>in</strong>to high,<br />
moderate and low risk categories.<br />
Guidance and check-list for use by field-mission representatives and<br />
Danish development partners. <strong>Climate</strong> change <strong>in</strong>tegrated as part of<br />
wider “environment” as a cross-cutt<strong>in</strong>g issue.<br />
Portfolio (ORCHID) and sector-based (CRISP) climate risk assessment<br />
methodologies.<br />
Integrated screen<strong>in</strong>g Integrated environment, climate change and disaster risk reduction<br />
screen<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> quick scans<br />
Consultant-based “quick scans” of bilateral portfolios to screen<br />
www.nlcap.net<br />
them for risks and identify adaptation entry po<strong>in</strong>ts.<br />
Community-based <strong>Risk</strong> Screen<strong>in</strong>g Tool –<br />
Adaptation and Livelihoods (CRiSTAL)<br />
www.iisd.org/security/es/resilience/climate_phas<br />
e2.asp<br />
SERVIR-viz climate mapper<br />
www.servir.net<br />
World Bank World Bank climate change portal, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g<br />
ADAPT tool<br />
http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal<br />
<strong>Climate</strong>-proof<strong>in</strong>g and emission sav<strong>in</strong>g; ensur<strong>in</strong>g that climate risks<br />
and emissions reduction potentials are taken <strong>in</strong>to account for all<br />
affected or relevant development co-operation activities.<br />
Project management tool to help (a) understand the l<strong>in</strong>ks between<br />
local livelihoods and climate; (b) assess a project's impact on<br />
livelihood resources important for climate adaptation; and (c) devise<br />
adjustments to improve a project's impact on these key livelihood<br />
resources.<br />
Tool / checklist <strong>in</strong> draft stage (March<br />
2009).<br />
Test<strong>in</strong>g on sector programmes <strong>in</strong> 17<br />
countries. Results available for Ben<strong>in</strong>,<br />
Bhutan, Burk<strong>in</strong>a Faso, Cambodia, Kenya,<br />
Mali, Nepal, Niger.<br />
ORCHID piloted on DFID bilateral<br />
portfolios <strong>in</strong> Bangladesh and India <strong>in</strong><br />
2007/08. CRISP piloted <strong>in</strong> Kenya <strong>in</strong> 2008.<br />
Piloted <strong>in</strong> five programmes <strong>in</strong> India, Nepal,<br />
Bangladesh, Afghanistan and Pakistan.<br />
Netherlands <strong>Climate</strong> Assistance<br />
Programme led work <strong>in</strong> Bangladesh,<br />
Bolivia and Ethiopia. Completed <strong>in</strong> 2007.<br />
Piloted <strong>in</strong> Morocco and India <strong>in</strong> 2008.<br />
Field-tested on natural resources/<br />
livelihoods projects <strong>in</strong> Bangladesh, Mali,<br />
Tanzania, Nicaragua, Sri Lanka, Ecuador<br />
and India.<br />
GIS-based <strong>in</strong>formation tool for environmental decision-mak<strong>in</strong>g. Meso-America, with current development<br />
of tools for Africa.<br />
Google maps-based platform represent<strong>in</strong>g wide range of data; the<br />
portal presents climate model outputs, historical climate<br />
observations, natural disaster data, crop yield projections and socioeconomic<br />
data.<br />
107 Examples of Tools and Screen<strong>in</strong>g Approaches for Adaptation to <strong>Climate</strong> Change. Table produced by Thomas Tanner and Anne Hammill. (October 2008). OECD 2009<br />
ADAPT tested <strong>in</strong> South Asia and sub-<br />
Saharan Africa.<br />
56
Annex IV. List of organizations/persons consulted dur<strong>in</strong>g the<br />
assignment<br />
M<strong>in</strong>istry of Water Resources<br />
� Mr. Fekahmed Negash, National Project Coord<strong>in</strong>ator for Tana Beles IWRDP<br />
� Mr Alemayehu, Senior Watershed Expert<br />
� Mrs Semunesh Golla, Head of Hydrology Department<br />
M<strong>in</strong>istry of Agriculture<br />
� Mr Daniel Denano, Head of Susta<strong>in</strong>able Land management (SLM) secretariat<br />
Environmental Protection Authority, EPA<br />
� Mr Desalegn Deza, Environmental Protection Authority, deputy head of EPA<br />
National Meteorological Agency<br />
� Mr. Kidane Asefa, Director General<br />
� Mr. Dula Shanko, A/D/Director General<br />
Bureau of Agriculture and Rural <strong>Development</strong>, Amhara<br />
� Mr. Alehegne Degnew, Tana-Beles project coord<strong>in</strong>ator, Integrated watershed development<br />
and land use plann<strong>in</strong>g expert<br />
ENTRO (Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office)<br />
� Mr. Ahmed Khalid Eldaw, Executive director<br />
� Mr. Mohamed Elmuntasir I Ahmed, Environmental <strong>Management</strong> Specialist<br />
United Nations <strong>Development</strong> Programme<br />
� Mr Girma Hailu, UNDP Programme Manager<br />
� Ms. Kidanua Abera, CDM Programme Coord<strong>in</strong>ator<br />
United Nations Environment Programme<br />
� Mr. Strike Mkanla, UNEP Representative to AU, ECA & Ethiopia<br />
� Mr. Destra Mebratu, UNEP, Chief, Industry Unit<br />
United Nations Economic Commission for Africa<br />
� Mr. Josué Dioné, Director, Food Security and susta<strong>in</strong>able <strong>Development</strong> Division, ECA<br />
� Mr. Charles Akol<br />
European Union Delegation to African Union<br />
� Ms Leda Giuffrida, Advisor, operational section<br />
� Ms. Sofia Moreira de Sousa, Political Advisor<br />
World Bank<br />
� Mr E.V. Jagannathan, Senior Water Resource <strong>Management</strong> Specialist, Tana Beles Project<br />
German Technical <strong>Cooperation</strong> GTZ<br />
� Mr. Eckhart Bode, Director Operations<br />
57
SIDA<br />
� Ms. Annlouise Olofsson, First Secretary, Programme Officer for Rural <strong>Development</strong><br />
UK Embassy, Department for International <strong>Development</strong> (DFID)<br />
� Mr. Mike McCarthy ,Senior Regional <strong>Development</strong> Adviser, DFIID<br />
USAID<br />
� Mr Yacob Wondimkun<br />
Rural Water Supply and Environmental Programme <strong>in</strong> Amhara Region (RWSEP)<br />
� Mr. Elis Karsten, TA Team Leader<br />
� Mr. Muatu Ferede RWSEP Program Coord<strong>in</strong>ator<br />
Technical Assistance to the Watershed Monitor<strong>in</strong>g and Evaluation (WME) Component of the Tana<br />
Beles (TBIWRDP)<br />
� Mr. Veli Pohjonen, Team Leader<br />
� Ms. Mikaela Krupskopf , RWSEP Advisor<br />
Rural water supply, sanitation and hygiene programme <strong>in</strong> Benishangul Gumuz region (F<strong>in</strong>nWASH BG)<br />
� Mr. Tapio Niemi Team Leader<br />
� Mr. M<strong>in</strong>ilik Wube, WASH BG Program Coord<strong>in</strong>ator<br />
Mr. Mika Turpe<strong>in</strong>en<br />
� Energy consultant. Addis Ababa<br />
Mr. Tauno Pihlava<br />
� Ethiopian Evangelical Church Mekane Yesus (EECMY/DASSC)<br />
58
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