Climate Risk Management in Finnish Development Cooperation - Gaia

land degradation, insecure land tenure as well as recurrent droughts and floods. Consequently,
climate adaptation should be systematically mainstreamed into all development planning and
programming as droughts as well as war with Eritrea in 1998-2000 have buffeted the economy. The
on-going Finnish development cooperation activities are focusing on many of the key challenges
above (including a.o. integrated watershed management, sustainable land management and
administration, education) and provide a good basis to further support Ethiopia in its efforts to
address the development and climate challenges in a comprehensive manner.
Climate change and security
Introduction
The United Nations Security Council held its first meeting on climate change, energy supplies and
security in April 2007. Some countries were hesitant to deal with such a topic at the council, but the
majority however agreed that climate change poses a threat to international security, and the
Security Council is an appropriate forum to discuss the matter. 82
Climate change is perceived to threaten existing drivers of conflict and therefore threaten achieved
development across many countries. One of the areas most likely to suffer from the threats posed
by climate change to international peace and security is Africa. Conflict of Darfur is considered to be
an example which has been driven partly by climate change and environmental degradation. Rainfall
has fallen by 30 % during the past 40 years and the Sahara has advanced by more than a mile each
year. This has led to increased tensions among farmers and herders and led to conflict. However, in
this and other instances, environmental considerations are only partly to blame. It is important to
recognise that a range of climate-related shocks and stresses can raise the risk of conflict. 83
Predicting conflicts alone is challenging and analysing in detail the role of climate change to future
conflicts is difficult. In some parts of the world, climate change is contributing to socio-political
tensions but only as one factor amongst other, more immediate environmental triggers like water
shortages, food insecurity and land degradation. However, certain potential paths can be identified.
Climate change can create scarcity of resources, such as water resources, which leads to competition
and conflict. Climate change may further decrease local agricultural productivity and make global
food prices increasingly volatile, further politicizing the issues of food security. Violence can also
arise when conflict-resolution institutions and mechanisms fail. But conflict is the result of many
social factors such as ethnicity, adverse economic conditions and low levels of international trade. 84
Figure 4 shows where drought-risk hotspots intersect with areas already considered being at high
and extreme risk of conflict. According to the map, climate change raises the risk of conflict in,
among others, east Africa. However, during the next 20-30 year period, the additional degree of risk
resulting from climate change is uncertain and probably not substantial. During this short timeframe,
82 Brown et al. 2007: 1142-1143
83 Brown et al. (2007: 1142-1143); Ehrhart et al. (2008: 19)
84 Brown et al. (2007: 1147-1148, 1150); Ehrhart et al. (2008: 19); IISD (2009: 2); UNEP (2009: 5)
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