Climate Risk Management in Finnish Development Cooperation - Gaia

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community will have to deal with the large-scale displacement of climate change and rethink current policies. 101 Impacts on Ethiopia As described in the previous chapter on climate change and security, Ethiopia is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts and to potential conflicts. These factors can increase human displacement in the future. Figure 6 presents a displacement index of current and future social unrest and thus indicates vulnerability. The index includes both refugees by country of origin as well as internally displaced people (IDPs). Figure 6. Displacement risk index Figure 6 presents how Ethiopia has a relatively high displacement index. So far there is no modelling on the potential amount of forced migrants potentially in Ethiopia. Potential displacement depends on how climate change proceeds, political and economic situation and the availability of natural resources. As stated above climate change forced migrants tend to flee to nearby areas, foremost within the country, where there are existing cultural or ethnic bonds. However, if conflicts break out within the country in the future, this could create potential refugees. Displacement may occur also depending on events in neighbouring countries and their impacts to the regional area. Currently, forced migration in Ethiopia is classified in three categories: internally displaced persons (IDPs), refugees in Ethiopia, and trafficking. Conflict-induced displacement is the most significant form of internal displacement in Ethiopia. The Ethio-Eritrean war, which erupted in May 1998, accounted for the largest number of displaced people since the current government came to power 101 Boano (2008: 12; Brown 2008b: 41) 52
in 1991. Over 350,000 people were displaced at the start of the war from areas along the common border of the Tigray and Afar regions. An additional 95,000 Ethiopians were deported from Eritrea, and as the conflict escalated, people residing close to the borderlines were evacuated. Droughtinduced and famine-induced displacements are chronic problems in Ethiopia and e.g. developmentinduced displacement occurs due to road construction. Relevant issues concerning IDPs include the presence of landmines, HIV/AIDS, and problems of the families of deceased soldiers. Refugees in Ethiopia - principally Somalis, Sudanese, and Eritreans – often arrive as a result of ongoing political and civil unrest in the Horn of Africa as well as natural disasters (mostly drought). Trafficking, particularly of women and young girls, is another significant form of forced migration in Ethiopia. 102 Implications to Finland In 2008, 668 Ethiopians immigrated to Finland. Out of the immigrants 430 were men and 238 women. The figures include Ethiopians who have lived a year or more in Finland. The largest group of immigrants were 18-40 year old men. Overall, the amount of immigrants from Ethiopia to Finland is small in comparison to the amount of all immigrants arriving to Finland. Asylum seekers represent only a small proportion of Ethiopian immigrants as other reasons such as family, study and work immigration are more dominant. 103 As mentioned in previous chapters, climate change could increase potentials of conflict and therefore create refugees and asylum seekers even to Finland. Climate change itself will not create Ethiopian immigrants to Finland as people tend to move to local areas when living conditions worsen. Already now, Ethiopia’s politicised ethnicity, where the country has been divided up into a number of self-determining ethnically defined and administrated territories, has left people less willing to migrate into regions administered by ethnic groups other than their own 104 . In development cooperation, actions mentioned in previous chapters are also valid in the case of human displacement. Climate processes require long-term planning in development cooperation in terms of adaptation measures and securing livelihoods. Sudden climate events may demand increasing amounts of emergency relief and humanitarian assistance from Finland and other donor countries. Both sudden and slow-onset disasters will require substantial protection and humanitarian assistance because displacement creates new, or exacerbates pre-existing vulnerabilities. Finland should support Ethiopia in reducing risks created by climate change and vulnerabilities caused by it. In addition, Finland can support Ethiopia in protecting individuals displaced by the effects of climate change. Adaptation measures should cover protection of and assistance for the displaced. Measures to mitigate and reduce risks of disasters should include measures such as disaster risk mapping, early warning systems, predetermination of evacuation routes, prepositioning of humanitarian aid, building capacities of local communities to deal with 102 http://www.forcedmigration.org/browse/regional/ethiopia.htm 103 Telephone discussion with Leena Hiljanen, Finnish Immigration Service/10.6.2009 104 Morrissey (2008: 29) 53
Page 1 and 2: Climate Risk Management in Finnish
Page 3 and 4: Abbreviations ACPC African Climate
Page 5 and 6: 1.2 Finnish development cooperation
Page 7 and 8: Ethiopia. As noted above, the clima
Page 9 and 10: Chapter 3 presents a strategic over
Page 11 and 12: hottest period in the year is from
Page 13 and 14: Regarding experienced climate varia
Page 15 and 16: notes that warming in Africa is ver
Page 17 and 18: Some models also indicate an increa
Page 19 and 20: inadequate road infrastructure in d
Page 21 and 22: However, in the near future, rain f
Page 23 and 24: the progress and to date no CDM pro
Page 25 and 26: 4 Preliminary climate screening of
Page 27 and 28: Figure 10. Map of Ethiopia highligh
Page 29 and 30: isks or coping measures has been pr
Page 31 and 32: Climate risks for project outcomes
Page 33 and 34: livelihoods. The potential increase
Page 35 and 36: specifically designed to support su
Page 37 and 38: Project elements undermining local
Page 39 and 40: the existing body of knowledge coul
Page 41 and 42: Appendix Annex I. Ethiopia Climate
Page 43 and 44: adaptation. The Intergovernmental P
Page 45 and 46: Figure 3. Impacts of climate change
Page 47 and 48: according to some estimates, it may
Page 49 and 50: For example in the Lake Tana sub-ba
Page 51: citizens have more options than poo
Page 55 and 56: Annex II. Activities supported by t
Page 57 and 58: Annex IV. List of organizations/per
Page 59 and 60: References Boano, C. (2008). FMO Re
Page 61: Tanner, T.M. Hassan, A. Islam, K.M.

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