Climate Risk Management in Finnish Development Cooperation - Gaia

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Figure 6. Drought hazard frequency in Ethiopia during past 30 years. 27 Analysis of currently available data do not yet show any marked longer-term trends in rainfall intensity and climate extremes despite commonly expressed concerns by most stakeholders in Ethiopia. 28 However, recent studies indicate an increasing amount of woredas 29 being affected by droughts and/or floods during the past years. 30 Taking note of the climatic risks associated in particular with extreme events and intense rainfall, it is of vital importance to continue analysing in more detail potential changes in extreme events trends in different parts of Ethiopia. 2.2 Climate change projections for Ethiopia in the 21 st century Regarding future climate change implications for Ethiopia, climate models indicate that temperatures will increase in the future, although the extent of the temperature increase varies significantly between different models. Results from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, looking at regional climate projections, 27 Mathewos Hunde Early Warning and Response Directorate, DMFSS, MoARD. January 15, 2008. Presentation “Climate Change and Ethiopian Agriculture” at the first Ethiopian National Climate Change Conference, January 15, 2009 UNECA Conference Center . Addis Ababa 28 During the expert mission in June 2009, national and regional authorities communicated a common understanding of increased frequency of extreme events during the past 5-10 years. However, solid baseline information on several other climatic parameters (such us e.g. heat waves, cold days/nights, storms, wild fires, etc) is lacking. 29 Administrative entity in Ethiopia (equivalent to a district). 30 Mathewos Hunde Early Warning and Response Directorate, DMFSS, MoARD. January 15, 2008. 14
notes that warming in Africa is very likely to be larger than the global annual mean warming throughout the continent and in all seasons, with drier subtropical regions warming more than the moister tropics. In recent scenario work conducted for Ethiopia for the period 2040-2069 temperatures are projected to increase between 1°C and 3°C. For the period 2070-2099 the scenarios and models suggest temperatures increases of 2°C to 4°C, with the possibility that the increase may be as high as 6°C (see figure 7). Figure 7. Annual mean temperature anomaly - trend in annual temperature for the recent past and projected future (values shown are anomalies, relative to the 1970-1999 mean Climate). Black curve show the mean of observed data from 1960 to 2006, brown curve show the median (solid line) and range (shading) of model simulations of recent climate across an ensemble of 15 models. Colored lines from 2006 onwards show the median (solid line) and range (shading) of the ensemble projections of climate under three emissions scenarios. Colored bars on the right-hand side of the projections summarize the range of mean 2090-2100 climates simulated by the 15 models for each emissions scenario (source UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles, Ethiopia) These projections are rather similar to modelling results that served the elaboration of the NAPA, indicating warming in all regions in Ethiopia during all seasons in the future (figure 8). Another recent emission scenario exercise, which produced averaged results for five geographical regions of Ethiopia: Central, East, North, Southwest and the whole of Ethiopia, projects annual warming for the whole of Ethiopia by the 2050s of 2.2°C with a range of 1.4°C – 2.9°C and the regional differences in warming relatively modest – within tenths of a degree centigrade. 31 The temperature increase, which can be projected with rather high confidence, can be expected to also increase the frequency of other, directly temperature bound events, such as the frequency of hot days and nights as well as heat waves. It is important to note that higher temperatures will probably also increase the rates of evaporation and, assuming other influences remain unchanged, increase surface water evaporation and affect soil moisture balances. 31 Looking at a total of 18 Global Climate Models, analyzed with two IPCC SRES-A2 and B1 emissions scenarios. Conway, D et al (2007). 15
Page 1 and 2: Climate Risk Management in Finnish
Page 3 and 4: Abbreviations ACPC African Climate
Page 5 and 6: 1.2 Finnish development cooperation
Page 7 and 8: Ethiopia. As noted above, the clima
Page 9 and 10: Chapter 3 presents a strategic over
Page 11 and 12: hottest period in the year is from
Page 13: Regarding experienced climate varia
Page 17 and 18: Some models also indicate an increa
Page 19 and 20: inadequate road infrastructure in d
Page 21 and 22: However, in the near future, rain f
Page 23 and 24: the progress and to date no CDM pro
Page 25 and 26: 4 Preliminary climate screening of
Page 27 and 28: Figure 10. Map of Ethiopia highligh
Page 29 and 30: isks or coping measures has been pr
Page 31 and 32: Climate risks for project outcomes
Page 33 and 34: livelihoods. The potential increase
Page 35 and 36: specifically designed to support su
Page 37 and 38: Project elements undermining local
Page 39 and 40: the existing body of knowledge coul
Page 41 and 42: Appendix Annex I. Ethiopia Climate
Page 43 and 44: adaptation. The Intergovernmental P
Page 45 and 46: Figure 3. Impacts of climate change
Page 47 and 48: according to some estimates, it may
Page 49 and 50: For example in the Lake Tana sub-ba
Page 51 and 52: citizens have more options than poo
Page 53 and 54: in 1991. Over 350,000 people were d
Page 55 and 56: Annex II. Activities supported by t
Page 57 and 58: Annex IV. List of organizations/per
Page 59 and 60: References Boano, C. (2008). FMO Re
Page 61: Tanner, T.M. Hassan, A. Islam, K.M.

Climate Risk Management in Finnish Development Cooperation - Gaia

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?