Climate Risk Management in Finnish Development Cooperation - Gaia

notes that warming in Africa is very likely to be larger than the global annual mean warming
throughout the continent and in all seasons, with drier subtropical regions warming more
than the moister tropics.
In recent scenario work conducted for Ethiopia for the period 2040-2069 temperatures are
projected to increase between 1°C and 3°C. For the period 2070-2099 the scenarios and
models suggest temperatures increases of 2°C to 4°C, with the possibility that the increase
may be as high as 6°C (see figure 7).
Figure 7. Annual mean temperature anomaly - trend in annual temperature for the recent past and
projected future (values shown are anomalies, relative to the 1970-1999 mean Climate). Black curve
show the mean of observed data from 1960 to 2006, brown curve show the median (solid line) and
range (shading) of model simulations of recent climate across an ensemble of 15 models. Colored
lines from 2006 onwards show the median (solid line) and range (shading) of the ensemble
projections of climate under three emissions scenarios. Colored bars on the right-hand side of the
projections summarize the range of mean 2090-2100 climates simulated by the 15 models for each
emissions scenario (source UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles, Ethiopia)
These projections are rather similar to modelling results that served the elaboration of the
NAPA, indicating warming in all regions in Ethiopia during all seasons in the future (figure 8).
Another recent emission scenario exercise, which produced averaged results for five
geographical regions of Ethiopia: Central, East, North, Southwest and the whole of Ethiopia,
projects annual warming for the whole of Ethiopia by the 2050s of 2.2°C with a range of
1.4°C – 2.9°C and the regional differences in warming relatively modest – within tenths of a
degree centigrade. 31
The temperature increase, which can be projected with rather high confidence, can be
expected to also increase the frequency of other, directly temperature bound events, such
as the frequency of hot days and nights as well as heat waves. It is important to note that
higher temperatures will probably also increase the rates of evaporation and, assuming
other influences remain unchanged, increase surface water evaporation and affect soil
moisture balances.
31 Looking at a total of 18 Global Climate Models, analyzed with two IPCC SRES-A2 and B1 emissions scenarios.
Conway, D et al (2007).
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