Climate Risk Management in Finnish Development Cooperation - Gaia

estructuring across key economic sectors such as energy, industry, transportation and agriculture. It
will also require action within a wide range of global regulatory frameworks, well beyond the climate
regime itself. 65
Population, technology, production, consumption
Emissions
Atmospheric concentrations
Radiative forcing and global climate
Regional climate and weather
Direct impacts (e.g. crops, forests, ecosystems)
Socio-economic impacts
Figure 1. Modelling climate change from emissions to impacts 66
A global and swift energy transition will be necessary to move to a low-carbon economy path.
Improvements in the generation and use of energy as well as development and diffusion of new and
clean sources of energy are needed. 67 Also land use will require a lot of attention due to climate
change as agriculture and forestry cumulatively account for over 30 percent of global carbon
emissions, with e.g. deforestation and forest degradation contributing to approximately 18 percent
of global carbon emissions. 68
Production and trade patterns are likely to change as some regions become less suited to
agricultural production, and others become better adapted. Currently, experts anticipate that the
production potential of mid- to high-latitudes is likely to increase, and to decrease in low latitudes.
As a result, trade flows of high-latitude and mid-latitude products are expected to increase, with
products such as cereals and livestock products being exported towards low-latitude regions.
However, the exact nature of these shifts in production and trade patterns remains unclear, and
more research is needed before policy-makers can properly understand the likely implications. 69
As countries increasingly focus on addressing their adaptation needs, trade remains largely
unchartered territory. Sectors such as agriculture that provide the greatest trade potential for many
developing countries will be most affected by climate change, and therefore the most in need of
65
Crick & Dougherty (2006: 8), ICTSD (2008: 1)
66
Stern (2006:146)
67
ICTSD (2008: xii)
68
The three main areas for mitigating climate change using forestry and wood products are:, i) activities that reduce
greenhouse gas emissions from forests, ii) activities that help maintain the ability of forests to store carbon (such as
management techniques including low impact logging, and long-term use of forests and forests products) and iii) activities
that expand the capacity of forests to store carbon (such as reforestation and agroforestry). ICTSD 2008: xiii
69
ICTSD 2008: 18
42