Climate Risk Management in Finnish Development Cooperation - Gaia

Some models also indicate an increase in the proportion of total rainfall that falls in ‘heavy’
events, with annual changes ranging from -1 to +18%. The largest increases are projected for
the periods July-September and October-December. These models are broadly consistent in
indicating increases in the magnitude of 1- and 5-day rainfall maxima. The annual increases
arise largely due to increases in October-December. The changes in maxima in 1-day events
in October-December range from 0 to +29mm and -4 to +40mm in 5-day events. 35 The
overall uncertainty about the future precipitation patterns, changes in both amount and
timing of rainfall in different parts of Ethiopia will exacerbate the already considerable
challenges with high rainfall variability.
Taking note of all these projected trends, including a potential increase in climate extremes,
Ethiopia will have to find ways to adapt to a highly unpredictable climate. Some recent
studies of river basins in Eastern Africa, including Ethiopia show a tendency for higher flows
due to higher rainfall, i.e. increases in rainfall big enough to offset greater losses due to
evaporation. 36 While flood characteristic have not been well studied it is very likely that
flood frequency and magnitude will increase under such conditions.
While temperature increase can be projected with a rather high confidence many of the
other climatic parameters remain uncertain, with considerable regional and seasonal
variations to be expected for Ethiopia. The national response to the already experienced
changes, as well as the longer-term adaptation strategy must be able to propose a wide set
of solid climate adaptation measures, that can cope with a wide range of climatic patterns
and flexibly stepped-up where and whenever required.
35 UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles, Ethiopia (2008).
36 Conway, D et al (2007).
17