Climate Risk Management in Finnish Development Cooperation - Gaia

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Figure 3. Year to Year Variability of Annual Rainfall and trend over Ethiopia (in Normalized Deviation). Source NAPA While trend analysis of annual rainfall shows that average annual rainfall remained fairly constant in the second half of the 20 th century when averaged over the whole country, some regional longer-term trends can be distinguished (see figure 4 below), indicating a declining trend in the northern and south western parts of Ethiopia and increasing trend in central Ethiopia. 23 On shorter term both upward and downward trends can be indentified in different parts of the country, depending strongly on the specific region that is being studied and in particular the period of time that is covered. 24 Figure 4. Inter-annual variability of annual rainfall over Ethiopia (Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE), 2001). 23 A study by Verdin et al (2005) which looked at seasonal trends in rainfall found that, nationally, the Kremt rains have been fairly consistent since the 1960s but that the Belg rains have been decreasing consistently since 1996. Verdin et al state that the decrease in the Belg rains may be part of a larger set of climate changes in the Indian Ocean basin. 24 Multiple sources of evidence converge on a post-1997 tendency towards lower rainfall, especially during the Belg (March-May) season. This finding appears to hold for many parts of eastern Africa. Source: Funk et al. (2005). 12
Regarding experienced climate variability and in particular extremes, major droughts and floods have hit Ethiopia throughout its history (see figures 5 and 6 below). Figure 5. Flood hazard frequency in Ethiopia during past 30 years. 25 For example, the years 1961, 1964, 1967, 1977 and 1996 and 2006 were very wet, while the years 1962, 1965 and 1984 and 2002 years were extremely dry. It is good to note, that e.g. floods do not only occur during the wet season, as widespread flooding occurred across Ethiopia during the October to February dry season of 1997/98. 26 25 Mathewos Hunde Early Warning and Response Directorate, DMFSS, MoARD. January 15, 2008. Presentation “Climate Change and Ethiopian Agriculture” at the first Ethiopian National Climate Change Conference, January 15, 2009 UNECA Conference Center . Addis Ababa 26 Considered the wettest dry season on record (Conway, 2000). 13
Page 1 and 2: Climate Risk Management in Finnish
Page 3 and 4: Abbreviations ACPC African Climate
Page 5 and 6: 1.2 Finnish development cooperation
Page 7 and 8: Ethiopia. As noted above, the clima
Page 9 and 10: Chapter 3 presents a strategic over
Page 11: hottest period in the year is from
Page 15 and 16: notes that warming in Africa is ver
Page 17 and 18: Some models also indicate an increa
Page 19 and 20: inadequate road infrastructure in d
Page 21 and 22: However, in the near future, rain f
Page 23 and 24: the progress and to date no CDM pro
Page 25 and 26: 4 Preliminary climate screening of
Page 27 and 28: Figure 10. Map of Ethiopia highligh
Page 29 and 30: isks or coping measures has been pr
Page 31 and 32: Climate risks for project outcomes
Page 33 and 34: livelihoods. The potential increase
Page 35 and 36: specifically designed to support su
Page 37 and 38: Project elements undermining local
Page 39 and 40: the existing body of knowledge coul
Page 41 and 42: Appendix Annex I. Ethiopia Climate
Page 43 and 44: adaptation. The Intergovernmental P
Page 45 and 46: Figure 3. Impacts of climate change
Page 47 and 48: according to some estimates, it may
Page 49 and 50: For example in the Lake Tana sub-ba
Page 51 and 52: citizens have more options than poo
Page 53 and 54: in 1991. Over 350,000 people were d
Page 55 and 56: Annex II. Activities supported by t
Page 57 and 58: Annex IV. List of organizations/per
Page 59 and 60: References Boano, C. (2008). FMO Re
Page 61: Tanner, T.M. Hassan, A. Islam, K.M.

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