Climate Risk Management in Finnish Development Cooperation - Gaia

Impacts on Ethiopia
Ethiopia is an authoritarian state. Authoritarianism derives from history, feudal society and from a
long-term communist government era, which came to an end in the 1991 revolution. This tradition
can be still seen in present hierarchical structures, inequality and slow democracy development.
There have been three democratic elections since 1995, but they have been characterized by
unclarities in vote counting and been disturbed by opposition parties. Ethiopia recognizes civil rights
but despite this freedom of speech, freedom of the press and political opinion freedom has not
materialized.
Ethiopia is a potential hotspot for conflicts associated with climate change due to the fact that it is
already a poor state (Figure 5). Due to climate change (see chapter 2) Ethiopia is likely to suffer
particularly from increased drought and extreme precipitation which will challenge peace and
security questions. Additionally Ethiopia will be affected by situations in neighbouring states and
obviously any climatic changes and environmental pressures in Ethiopia affects its neighbouring
countries and vice versa. Access to water in the countries of the Nile basin is dependent on runoff
from the Ethiopian highlands and the level of Lake Victoria, both of which are sensitive to variations
in rainfall. Ethiopia is in a region already characterised by weak states, civil wars and major refugee
flows (e.g. Somalia, Chad, Sudan, Niger) and climate change is predicted to cause additional
environmental stress and social crises such as drought, harvest failure and water scarcity 89 .
89 WBGU 2007: 3
Figure 5. Security risks associated with climate change: Selected hotspots
48