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Millions of persons
25
20
15
10
5
Figure 24: Total employment in the energy sector, and its disaggregation into fuel and power, and energy
efficiency
6). As a consequence, total CO 2 emissions from transport
energy use are expected to decline to 7.8-4.6 Gt per year
in 2050 in the green scenarios, compared with around
13 Gt per year in the baseline. By then, cars will account
for a declining share of the emissions from 53 per cent
under BAU to 38 per cent in the green scenarios. Primarily
as a result of the job gains in public transport expansion,
total employment in the green scenarios will increase
to 124-130 million in 2050 (or 5-10 per cent above the
baseline).
In the short term, private cars will account for 41 per cent
of passenger travel due to green investments in 2020
compared with around half under BAU, allowing the
share of rail transport to grow to 11 per cent from 7 per
cent in BAU. As a result, the total energy consumption
of automobiles is curbed by 28 per cent relative to
BAU, resulting in a 20 per cent reduction in total energy
consumption and emissions from all vehicles by 2020.
At the national level we find synergies in allocating
investments to increase fuel efficiency, expanding and
electrifying the rail network. If non-thermal power
Modelling
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Coal production Oil production Gas production Biofuel
Thermal power RE power Energy e�ciency
sources are adopted, this leads to reduced liquid fuel
demand, higher efficiency and lower carbon intensity.
At the same time, the economy and employment will
benefit from infrastructure construction and reduced
congestion but short-term increases in emissions are
possible due to the higher demand of iron and steel,
among other things.
Water
In the green economy scenarios, US$118-US$198 billion
per year is invested on average between 2010 and 2050
in the water sector to expand the access to potable water
and water services, to improve water-use efficiency,
and to increase water supply through desalination and
supply management measures. With these investments,
water demand will be curbed by about 24 per cent-19
per cent in the G1 and G2 scenarios by 2050 relative
to BAU (3 per cent by 2015 and 13-12 per cent in
2030). This reduction is mainly a result of increased
water efficiency in the agriculture sector as well as
investments in the industrial and municipal sectors.
Furthermore, investments to manage and increase
Mtoe/year 2020 2030 2050
Scenario * WEO/450 Scenario G2 *WEO/450 Scenario G2 * IEA's BLUE Scenarios G2
Total transport
energy consumption
2,710 3,155 3,182 3,139 2,100-3,200 2,163
in which oil 2,483 2,699 2,891 2,526
in which biofuel 193 427 245 580 400-800 874
Table 6: Transport energy consumption in green scenarios of GER and IEA, in selected years
Source: * WEO/450 Scenario: WEO 2010 (IEA 2010); IEA’s BLUE Scenarios: Transport energy and CO 2 (IEA 2009)
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