POPULATION PROJECTIONS Final in Tetum version

PROJEKSAUN BA POPULASAUN TUIR GRUPU SEXU NO TINAN 

TIMOR-LESTE 

PROJEKSAUN POPULASAUN NIAN 

2004-2050 

ANALISA HUSI REZULTADU SENSUS NIAN 

RELATORIU 1 

SENSUS POPULASAUN JERAL TIMOR-LESTE NIAN BA TINAN 

2004 

DIRESAUN NASIONAL ESTATISTIKA 

Fundu Populasaun Nasoens Unidas nian maka Finansa 

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Director, Departementu Estatistika Nasional 

Manuel Mendonça 

Ekipa Projeksaun Populasaun 

Anastasia SEP Vong 

Silvino Lopes 

Manuel da Silva 

Ricardo Neupert 

Konselleru Teknikal husi Internasional 

Ricardo Neupert 

Editor 

Domingos S. Freitas 

Avaliador sira 

Ghazi Mujahid, CST - Thailand 

Madeleine Reid 

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Prefaze 

Iha kampo atu sukat populasaun nia numeru no sira-nia karakteristika bazika, projeksaun populasaun importante 

tebes mós hanesan sensus. Iha nasaun barak, projeksaun populasaun ida maka aktividade analitika dala uluk nian 

ne’ebé hala’o wainhira prosesu dadus/informasaun sensus nian kompletu ona. 

Nia razaun maka simples tebes; sensus ida dehan ba ita, ita hamutuk nain hirak iha tempu ne’ebá maibé la’os ita 

hamutuk nain hira. Sensus ida sura populasaun ne’ebé maka moris iha nasaun ida-nia laran iha tempu ne’ebé maka 

fó, dala barak durante loron ida, ne’ebé hanaran loron sensus. Maibé loron tuir mai, la temi tinan tuir mai, 

populasaun ne’ebé maka rejistu ona durante loron sensus la vale ona: ema mate no moris loro-loron. Iha kazu Timor- 

Leste nian, populasaun ne’ebé maka rejistu ona husi Sensus Populasaun no Uma nian iha tinan 2005 maka 923,198. 

Tuir estimasaun katak to’o tinan 2006 nia klaran, populasaun ita nian hamutuk nain 1,015,187. Projeksaun 

populaasun fó ba ita ho estimasaun ba sasukat populasaun futuru nian no tinan no kompozisaun sexu iha kualker 

pontu no tempu hafoin loron sensus nian. 

Koñesementu ba sasukat no kompozisaun populasaun prezente no futuru nian tuir tinan/idade no sexu importante 

tebes ba planu, halo politika no atu hala’o analiza sosiu-ekonomia. Projeksaun populasaun ida fó estimasaun kona-ba 

nesesidade no rekursu hirak ne’ebé tenki distribui atu satisfika nesesidade hirak-nune’e. Nu’udár izemplu, projeksaun 

populasaun ida fó informasaun kona-ba numeru husi labarik husi tinan 0-4 ne’ebé maka oras-ne’e iha nasaun ida nia 

laran, ne’ebé nu’udár dadus/informasaun importante atu planu kampañe imunizasaun ida. Projeksaun ne’e mós fó 

sasukat no evolusaun husi populasaun sira iha tinan/idade iskola atu nune’e bele planu ba izizensia ba aula no 

profesor sira. Projeksaun populasaun ida ba oras-ne’e no futuru mós informasaun importante ida atu analiza izizensia 

ba uma/hela fatin no utilidade hirak. Hatutan liútan, projeksaun populasaun ida mós fó denominador hirak ba 

indikador lubuk ida hanesan numeru aktividade ekonomia oioin. 

Isu/asuntu boot ida husi projeksaun populasaun maka nia konsistensia, katak, sé los ka la’e numeru hirak-ne’ebé 

maka projeita ona koresponde ho realidade ka projeksaun hirak sei aserta ho sasukat populasaun iha futuru. 

Ema barak, demographer nain sira mós iha openiaun ne’ebé uit’oan liu kona-ba kapasidade demografia nian atu halo 

estimasaun ne’ebé loloos. Pele menus, iha nivel nasional no tinan hirak-ne’ebé atu mai ba sensus ida, projeksaun 

populaaun fó rezultadu hirak-ne’ebé aserta wainhira demografia hirak-ne’ebé halo ona bazeia ba baze ne’ebé los ka 

populasaun inisiu no iha hipoteze ne’ebé iha razaun kona-ba mortalidade, fertilidade no migrasaun. Rezultadu hirak 

dala ruma la aserta maibé besik realidade atu halo planu ne’ebé adekuadu. Dehan tiha ona katak objektivu husi 

projeksaun populasaun hirak maka la’os atu halo predisaun ba realidade maibé atu konstrui. Nu’udár izemplu, 

importante atu hatene populasaun ho idade iskola nian aumenta lailais daudaun no ba tinan lima ne’ebé atu mai 

numeru husi profesor/a no aula tenki aumenta to’o 4.5% kada tinan ida maski dala ruma ita nia predisaun ba numeru 

husi labarik sira bele lato’o ka liu atu hirak. Buat-ne’ebé importante maka atu hatene katak presiza atu halo iskola no 

profesor/a sira presiza atu treinu. 

Projeksaun ba populasaun iha tempu narik nian ladun aserta. Wainhira ita muda liúba futuru, nia aserta menus. Sé 

nune’e, tan’sa demografer sira izizi atu halo projeksaun ba tempu naruk nian? Nusa la projeita deit ba periodu ida ba 

tinan 5 to’o 10 nian, to’o, nu’udár izemplu loron sensus tuir mai nian? Razaun loloos maka katak impaktu husi 

fertilidade no mortalidade muda tuir nivel kresimentu populasaun nian no sasukat ho estruktura populasaun ne’ebé 

maka mosu hafoin dekade rua ka tolu no analiza serteza ba tempu naruk dala ruma dala barak la presiza; importante 

liu maka atu identifika tendensia. Nu’udár izemplu, iha Timor-Leste, tuir projeksaun presente/oras-ne’e nian, husi 

tinan 2004 ba 2030, populasaun ho tinan/idade ba serbisu nian sei aumenta husi tokon sorin ba tokon 1.1. Dala ruma, 

kresimentu maka sei tokon 0.9 deit ka dala ruma ba tokon 1.3. Serteza iha ne’e la importante hanesan atu iha 

konsiensia katak izizensia ba serbisu sei aumentu maka’as durante dekade rua tuir mai no esforsa maka’as tenki halo 

atu konsumi traballador foun sira ba iha ekonomia. Nune’e, maski ami halo sala, sei diak liu ba sosiedade ida atu uza 

projeksaun sira ba planu duke la ho projeksaun hirak-ne’e. 

Rezultadu husi projeksaun ne’ebé aprezenta iha dokumentu ne’e analitikamente iha kredibilidade no razaun. Maibé, 

sira sei la livre husi eru hirak. Iha kazu ida-ne’e, ida-ne’e importante atu tau iha neon isu/asuntu rua: 

Ba projeksaun hirak-ne’e, baze populasaun hetan husi sensus tinan 2004. Nivel no tendensia husi komponente hirak 

mós halo ona estimasaun no avaliasaun husi baze ne’ebé hanesan. Maibé analiza no estatistika demografia husi 

sensus diskobre eru hirak, liliu halo numerasaun sala ba labarik ki’ik sira. Maioria husi eru kuriji ona uza tekniku 

estandar demografia. Sala sira seluk tamba falta informasaun labele hadiak. Hatutan liútan, iha mós posibilidade ba 

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eru iha estimasaun fertilidade no mortalidade. Ida-ne’e la’os surpreza tamba eru kobertura no kontiudu mosu iha 

sensus tomak, maski hirak-ne’ebé hala’o iha nasaun hirak-ne’ebé maka dezenvolvidu. Sala hirak iha sensus Timor- 

Leste iha tinan 2004 nia laran importante, maski, hare’e ba sira la halo invalidu rezultadu hirak husi sensus no 

prevene nia uza nu’udár baze boot ida ba planu dezenvolvimentu no analiza sosiu-demografia. 

Isu/asuntu ba dala rua nian maka kata, Timor-Leste esperiensa hela transformasaun sosiu-ekonomika ne’ebé halo 

difisil liu atu halo estimasaun ba movimentu futuru husi mortalidade, fertilidade no migrasaun. Projeksaun hirakne’ebé 

hato’o analiza ona hare’e fali ba situasaun presente Timor-Leste nian no informasaun ne’ebé maka iha; maibé 

espera katak reformasaun ekonomia hirak, programa sosial hirak no akontesementu politika bele produz mundasa 

demografia hirak. 

Konsiderasaun hirak-ne’e sujere nesesidade atu hala’o sensus ida iha interval badak nia laran, atu hetan informasaun 

diak ne’ebé foun. Sensus foun ida sei fasilita evalusaun husi projeksaun hirak-ne’e hanesan mós atu hetan projeksaun 

foun hafoin sensus hirak. Hare’e fali ba sentru hirak-ne’ebé la klaru husi projeksaun hirak-ne’e, interval tinan 10 

baibain entre sensus sira kleur liu ba iha Timor-Leste. Loron los ne’ebé identifika ona ba sensus foun maka sei iha 

tinan 2010. 

Iha kualker kazu, projeksaun hirak-ne’ebé aprezenta iha dokumentu ne’e sei sai baze ne’ebé ajuda tebes husi 

informasaun ba tinan hirak-ne’ebé atu mai. Projeksaun hirak-ne’e indika loloos persistensia husi estruktura 

populasaun foin sa’e ida no tendensia futuru ne’ebé importante, hanesan, kresimentu populasaun ne’ebé konstanta, 

liliu husi populasaun ho tinan/idade serbisu. Survei Demografia Nasonal (NDS – National Demografic survey) no 

UNFPA sira fiar katak relatoriu kona-ba projeksaun populasaun, bazeia ba dadus/informasaun sensus tinan 2004 sei 

simu didiak iha Ministeriu no Departementu oioin husi governu Republica Democratica de Timor-Leste hanesan mós 

ho ajensia internasional, doador, NGO no utente dadus/informasaun sira seluk. 

Manuel Mendonça Hernando Agudelo 

Director, Departementu Nasional Estatistika Reprezentante UNFPA nian 

Ministeriu Planu no Finansa Republica Democratica de Timor-Leste. 

Republica Democratica de Timor-Leste. 

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Tabela Konteudu 

Prefaze husi Director, Departementu Nasional Estatistika ho 

Reprezentante UNFPA nian, Timor-Leste……………...…………………………..03 

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Pagina 

SUMARIU EXEKUTIVU…………………………..………………………………………………………………07 

INTRODUSAUN……………………..……………………………………………………………………………..10 

METODU…………………………..………………………………………………………………………………..11 

ESTIMASAUN BA KOMPONENTE SIRA…………………………...………………………………………….12 

Estimasaun ba Mortalidade……………..…………………………………………..12 

Estimasaun ba Fertilidade………………..…………………………………………15 

Migrasaun Internasional……………………...……………………………………..16 

BAZE POPULASAUN…………….………………………………………………………………………………..17 

PROJEKSAUN BA KOMPONENTE SIRA……………………………..………………………………………..20 

Projeksaun ba Mortalidade…..……………………………………………………...20 

Projeksaun ba Fertilidade………...…………………………………………………23 

Migrasaun Internasional………...…………………………………………………..27 

RESULTADU HIRAK…………….……...………………………………………………………….……………..28 

SUMARIU NO KONKLUZAUN HIRAK…………………………………….…………………………………..46 

REFERENSIA HIRAK………….…………………………………...……………………………………………..48


Lista ba Tabele Hirak 

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TABELA 1: Timor-Leste: Tabela moris tinan 2002, mane no feto………………………………………..…12 

TABELA 2: Timor-Leste: Numeru tinan/idade fertilidade espesifiku hirak no numeru fertilidade total, 

tinan 1003…………………………………………………………………………………….…15 

TABELA 3: Timor-Leste: Populasaun sensus ne’ebé la hadiak no la hadiak diferensa persentajen………...19 

TABELA 4: Timor-Leste: Hipoteze kona-ba esperansa moris husi wainhira moris, 2002 to 2050….……....21 

TABELA 5: Timor-Leste: Hipoteze kona-ba numeru fertilidade total, 2003 ba 2050…….…………………25 

TABELA 6: Timor-Leste: Projeita estrutura fertilidade ba nivel tuir modelu Asia nian…..…….…………..26 

TABELA 7: Timor-Leste: Projeksaun populasaun tuir senariu tolu no indikador demografia hirak ne’ebé 

projeita ……………………………………………………………………………………….....28 

TABELA 8: Timor-Leste, indikador ne’ebé hili ona ba kompozisaun sexu no tinan tuir senariu tolu 

futuru nian, tinan 2004 ba 2020 no 2030, 2040 no 2050…………………..………....…………41 

TABELA 9: Timor-Leste, mudansa populasaun tuir grupu tinan/idade boot ba senariu futuru tolu, 

Tinan 2005 ba tinan 2050…………………………………………………………………….…44 

Lista ba Figura Hirak 


FIGURA 1: Timor-Leste: Sensus Populasaun tinan 2004……...………………………..………...18 

FIGURA 2a—2b: Timor-Leste: Esperansa moris ne’ebé projeita ona wainhira moris, 

Mane sira tuir hipoteze tolu ………………………………...……………..…...……..21/22 

FIGURA 3: Timor-Leste: Projeksaun husi TFR, tinan 2003 ba tinan 2050…………...…………...25 

FIGURA 4a—4c: Timor-Leste, Numeru Baziku Moris nian (CBR) no Numeru Baziku Mate nian 

(CDR), tinan 2000 ba tinan 2050, senariu mediu, boor no ki’ik…………………........31/32 

FIGURA 5: Timor-Leste nia populasaun ne’ebé projeita ona tuir senariu tolu, 

tinan 2000 ba 2050 ………………………………………………………..………..…32 

FIGURA 6a—6j: Timor-Leste, piramida populasaun, tinan 2005 (senariu mediu………………...…….34/38 

FIGURA 7a ho 7b: Timor-Leste: Piramida populasaun, tinan 2050, senariu aas/boot (shaded) 

no senariu mediu (not shaded)………………………………………………...……....39 

Apendixu 

TABELA A Timor-Leste, projeksaun populasaun tuir sexu no tinan klik hirak, tinan 2000 ba 

tinan 2050—senariu mediu/klaran ………………………....…………….………..…50/78



2004-2050 

NIVEL NASIONAL 

SUMARIU EXEKUTIVU 

Projeksaun populasaun maka hanesan exersizu demografiku ida ne’ebé kompostu husi kalkulasaun emperikal bazeia 

ba sasukat populasaun nian iha futuru tuir hipotezia spesifiku kona-ba mudansa iha kresimentu populasaun ka nia 

komponente hirak (mortalidade, fertilidade no migrasaun). 

Projeksaun populasaun presente nian ba Timor-Leste bazeia ba Sensus tinan 2004 kona-ba Populasaun no Uma. 

Projeksaun kobre periodu husi tinan 2004 to’o tinan 2050 no hala’o tuir tinan no sexu. Metodu uza atu hala’o 

projeksaun hirak-ne’e maka metodu komponente, metodu ida-ne’e inklui projeksaun independente hirak ba 

mortalidade, fertilidade no migrasaun. ‘Software’ ka programa ne’ebé utiliza maka Projeksaun Rurais no Urbanu 

ne’ebé Estadus Unidus nia Departementu ba Sensus maka halo. Kontrariu ba programa projeksaun hotu ne’ebé halo 

projeksaun tuir grupu tinan 5 no tuir ‘quinquenium’, Projeksaun Rurais no Urbanu fó rezultadu hirak tuir tinan ida 

(single age) (maski sé populasaun tama ona iha grupu tinan lima nian) no ba tinan ida-idak husi periodu sei 

konsidera hela. 

Estimasaun mortalidade no fertilidade husi inisiu hala’o ho dadus husi Sensus Populasaun no Uma husi tinan 2004 

nian hodi uza metodu indireita. Estimasaun kona-ba mortalidade, mortalidade bebe no labarik nian halo hodi uza 

metodu ‘Brass-type’ ne’ebé uza dadus kona-ba labarik hirak-ne’ebé maka moris no konsege moris. Estimasaun 

esperansa moris nian iha tabela moris no inisiu husi moris hola husi valor mortalidade bebe no labarik nian. Tabela 

hirak husi Modelu Lorosa’e husi Modelu Moris Rejiaun Coale-Demeny ka ‘The East Model of the Coale-Demeny 

Regional Model Life Tables maka uza ba estamasaun hirak-ne’e. Iha kazu fertilidade uza metodu P/F husi rasio/ 

relasaun indireita. 

Baze populasaun ida hari’i ona hodi uza estimasaun mortalidade no fertilidade. Ida-ne’e maka sensus populasaun 

ne’ebé hadiak ona ba numeru ne’ebé marka/sura sala no halo relatoriu sala ba tinan. Baibain, populasaun ne’ebé la 

sura durante sensus koriji hodi uza rezultadu hirak husi survei enumerasaun posterior ida. Survei ida-ne’e la hala’o 

iha Timor-Leste hafoin sensus. Maski-nune’e, populasaun ne’ebé tinan ki’ik liu (husi tinan 0 ba 4 no 5 ba tinan 9), 

maka dala barak sai nu’udár grupu hirak-ne’ebé maka afeita husi populasaun ne’ebé la sura durante sensus, hadiak 

hodi kompara sensus populasaun ba ida-ne’ebé maka hetan ona hodi aplika numeru fertilidade no mortalidade ba 

sensus husi populasaun feto. Jeralmente, populasaun husi tinan 10 ka boot liútan ladun afeita husi populasaun ne’ebé 

la sura durante sensus, maibé afeita husi halo relatoriu sala ba tinan. Problema ida-ne’e hamenuz tebes wainhira 

populasaun tau iha grupu husi grupu tinan 5 hirak tamba nune’e duni maka kazu iha ne’e. 

Iha projeksaun oras-ne’e nian, nu’udár iha exersizu projeksaun sira, hari’i senariu tolu tuir baze husi hipoteze konaba 

mudansa ba komponente sira. Hipoteze no senariu hirak-ne’e hari’i tuir baze asunsaun (konkluzaun) kona-ba 

oin’sa numeru sei la’o iha futuru. Iha-ne’e sira hetan marka nu’udár mediu ka rekomenda, boot no ki’ik. Senariu 

mediu inklui asunsaun hirak-ne’ebé maka besik liu kona-ba tendensiu mortalidade no fertilidade iha futuru. Numeru 

kresimentu populasaun ne’ebé maka kuaze mosu iha futuru koresponde ba senariu ida-ne’e. Senariu rua sira seluk 

dala barak reprezenta valor maximu no minimu hirak katak numeru mortalidade no fertilidade ne’ebé sei sai iha 

futuru, hare’e fali ba karakteristika hirak husi populasaun ne’ebé maka estuda hela. Senariu boot inklui hipoteze 

ne’ebé asumi katak fertilidade boot liu no numeru mortalidade wainhira senario ki’ik inklui hipoteze hirak-ne’ebé 

husu ka hato’o proposta ba numeru ne’ebé maka ki’ik liu. 

Tuir Relatoriu Dezenvolvimentu Humanu UNDP nian, nasaun hirak-ne’ebé ho nivel dezenvolvimentu humanu idane’ebé 

boot iha esperansa moris to’o tinan 77 husi moris, 74 ba mane no 80 ba feto sira. Hipoteze ne’ebé rekomenda 

kona-ba mortalidade asumi katak ba tinan 2050, esperansa moris iha maka tinan 72 ba mane no tinan 78 ba feto sira 

iha Timor-Leste, katak, nivel mortalidade hirak maka menus tinan 2 hasoru nasaun hirak-ne’ebé nia dezenvolvimentu 

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humanu maka’as ne’ebé maka oras-ne’e observa hela. Hipoteze ida-ne’e asume katak ba tinan 2050, esperansa moris 

nian maka tinan 68 ba mane sira no tinan 74 ba feto sira, katak, tinan 6 menus ba nasaun hirak-ne’ebé nia 

dezenvolvimentu humanu maka’as ne’ebé maka oras-ne’e observa ona. Hipoteze ki’ik asume katak ba tinan 2050, 

esperansa moris nian maka tinan 78 ba mane sira no 82 ba feto sira, katak, tinan 2 liu nasaun hirak-ne’ebé maka ho 

nivel dezenvolvimentu maka’as. Esperansa moris ba entre tinan 2002 no 2050 maka kalkula tuir internposaun linear. 

Halo ona projeksaun ba nivel fertilidade in termus numeru fertilidade total uza funsaun lojistika ida. Atu avalia 

funsaun ida-ne’e presiza iha valor hat: a) limita boot ne’ebé indika istoria fertilidade iha pasadu (hili ona TFR ida 

husi oan nain 8.0 kada feto ida); b) valor intermediu dala uluk ida, ne’ebé iha projeksaun ida-ne’e maka TFR ne’ebé 

antisipa ona husi sensus (oan nain 7.0 kada feto ida, ne’ebé koresponde ba tinan 2003); c) valor intermediu segundu, 

ne’ebé maka tau ba tinan 2020 no lahanesan tuir hipoteze hirak; no d) limita ki’ik ida ne’ebé indika nivel iha ne’ebé 

fertilidade sei estavel iha futuru no sei lahanesan tuir hipoteze. 

Hipoteze ne’ebé maka rekomenda asume katak ba tinan 2020, TFR sei koresponde ba numeru oan hirak maka feto ho 

tinan 20-24 sira deklara hakarak atu hetan iha Survei Demografia no Saude tinan 2003 (DHS – Demographic Health 

Survey); oan nian 4.9 kada feto ida. Ida-ne’e asume limita boot husi oan nain 3.0 kada feto ida. Hipoteze boot ne’e 

asume katak ba tinan 2020 TFR sei koresponde aproximamente ba numeru oan hirak maka feto ho tinan 40-44 

hakarak atu hetan tuir DHS tinan 2003 nian: oan nain 6.1 kada feto ida. Hipoteze ne’e mós asume limita boot husi 

oan nain 3.5 kada feto ida. Hipoteze ki’ik asume katak iha tinan 2020, TFR sei koresponde ba menus oan ida maka 

feto hirak ho tinan 20-24 hakarak atu hetan iha DHS tinan 2003 nian: Oan nain 3.9 kada feto ida. Hipoteze ne’e 

asume limita boot husi oan nain 2.5 kada feto ida. 

Asume ona mós katak kompozisaun tinan ba fertilidade sei muda. Oras-ne’e, feto sira hetan oan iha sira-nia vida 

reprodutiva tomak. Redusaun ida fertilidade dala barak signifika katak feto sira ho tinan 30 ba 49 hamenus sira-nia 

fertilidade liútan hirak-ne’ebé maka aserta iha sira-nia tinan reprodutiva (tinan 20-29). Maski-nune’e, sé karik 

fertilidade menus, fertilidade sei konsentra liu iha feto hirak ho tinan 20 ba tinan 34. 

Informasaun ne’ebé maka iha la to’o atu analitikamente hato’o hipoteze ne’ebé maka iha kredibilidade kona-ba migrasaun 

tamba falta informasaun/dadus no istoria Timor-Leste nian foin lailais ne’e. Movimentu populasaun hirak 

foin lailais ne’e tamba instabilidade politika, sosial no ekonomia ne’ebé nasaun ne’e hasoru/esperiensia, nune’e la 

konsidera nu’udár migrasaun internasional tuir kondisaun normal hirak. Ida-ne’e maka limitasaun boot atu halo 

estimasaun ba migrasaun internasional. Maibé, iha razaun tebes atu asume katak ida-ne’e sei sai nu’udár komponente 

boot ida husi mudansa populasaun iha Timor-Leste. Ida-ne’e la dehan katak migrasaun sei la akontese iha dekade 

lima ne’ebé atu mai, maibé probabilidade maka nia nivel sei ki’ik no sei iha impaktu ba sasukat no estruktura 

populasaun nian. Ida-ne’e asunsaun/konkluzaun ida deit no la signifika katak sei iha migrasaun iha futuru ka 

imigrasaun sei la mosu; maibé la iha evidensia atu hato’o hipoteze ida kona-ba volume no tendensia ba migrasaun 

internasional. Baibain iha kazu ida-ne’e maka atu asume katak sei ki’ik (uit’oan deit). 

Hafoin halo projeksaun ba nivel no estruktura mortalidade no fertilidade, projeksaun populasaun nasional tuir tinan/ 

idade no sexu tuir senariu tolu. Ba tinan 2010, populasaun total ba Timor-Leste maka sei to’o tokon 1.1 tuir senariu 

tolu. Iha tinan 2020, populasaun sei sai tokon 1.5 tuir variasaun mediu no ki’ik no tokon 1.6 tuir variasaun boot. 

Populasaun ida ho numeru tokon 3.0 sei mosu iha tinan 2050 iha senariu mediu/klaran. Senariu boot sujere katak 

populasaun ida-ne’ebé boot liu tan: tokon 3.9 no senariu ki’ik sujere populasaun ki’ik ida ho numeru tokon 2.5. 

Tuir senariu mediu, kresimentu populasaun maka sei 3.0% to’o loron ikus dekade oras-ne’e ninian. Populasaun sei 

to’o 2.7% iha tinan 2020 no sei ki’ik liu 2.0% to’o iha periodu projeksaun nian. Nu’udar hare’e ona, numeru ne’ebé 

maka projeta ona husi variasaun boot no ki’ik maka respektivamente boot ka ki’ik liu. 

Kontrariu ba asunsaun/konkluzaun katak fertilidade sei menus iha futuru, populasaun sei sente kresimentu 

importante ida. Ida-ne’e los katak velosidade kresimentu populasaun sei menus iha dekade lima atu mai, maibé 

maski fertilidade menus lailais liután, kresimentu populasaun sei maka’as tebes. Razaun loloos ba influensa limitadu 

husi fertilidade ida-ne’e bele nota ne’e ba kresimentu populasaun maka momentum populasaun nian ne’ebé 

populasaun Timor-Leste esperiensia daudaun. Numeru fertilidade pasadu no oras-ne’e ninian fó potensial ba 

kresimentu populasaun ida-ne’ebé lailais no maka’as maski iha redusaun fertilidade. Ko’alia liután, tendensia 

fertilidade selu-seluk ne’ebé uza iha senariu tolu ne’ebé inklui iha projeksaun ida-ne’e indika katakdurante dekade 

tuir mai, mudansa fertilidade dala ruma iha impaktu ne’ebé maka limitadu ba sasukat populasaun nian. 

8


Maibé redusaun fertilidade ida-ne’ebé maka lailais, nu’udár izemplu, suporte husi programa planiamentu familiar sei 

bele nota iha tinan 2030 nia laran. 

Mudansa hirak-ne’ebé sei hare’e iha estruktura tinan/idade, nu’udár rezultadu ida husi redusaun fertilidade, sujere 

bonus demografia katak kuantidade husi populasaun ne’ebé foin sa’e sei menus no kuantidade husi tinan/idade 

serbisu sei aumenta. Rekursu importante hirak, ne’ebé sé la’e sei muda fali ba gastu sosial, bele tau fali ba hadiak 

infrastruktura nasaun nian. Maski velosidade kresimentu populasaun foin sa’e sei menus, kresimentu ba populasaun 

ho tinan/idade serbisu sei aumenta dramatikamente, aplika presaun populasaun maka’as ba sistema sosio-ekonomiku. 

Ho liafuan seluk katak izizensia ba serbisu sei aumenta maka’as. Maski ekonomia nasaun nian sei boot tan, no 

izizensia ba traballador sei kresimentu ida-ne’ebé hanesan, numeru kresimentu husi populasaun ho tinan/idade 

serbisu sei liu numeru serbisu ne’ebé maka kria. Só redusaun fertilidade maka’as ida tan maka bele haboot tan 

populasaun ho tinan/idade serbisu ekonomikamente sei atrai no permiti nasaun atu iha benefisiu husi bonus 

demografiku ida hahu hafoin tinan 2020. 

Pontu ikus responde ba isu/asuntu importante ne’ebé mosu husi projeksaun hirak-ne’e. Expansaun ba populasaun ho 

tinan/idade serbisu ne’ebé konklui ona iha projeksaun sira fó dezafiu boot ida ba ekonomia Timor-Leste nian: 

Kriasaun serbisu iha faze ida-ne’ebé bele dada numeru ne’ebé aumentu daudaun husi ema hirak-ne’ebé maka atu ba 

merkadu serbisu nian. Kresimentu husi populasuan ho tinan/idade serbisu la’os faktor ida-ne’ebé maka bele atu 

modifika tamba buat-ne’e la’os rezultadu husi oras-ne’e, maibé husi dinamika demografika pasadu Timor-Leste nian. 

Numeru boot husi ema hirak-ne’ebé maka moris durante tinan 1990 nian laran no sorin balun husi oras-ne’e sei sai 

foin-sa’e adultu iha dekade rua tan, nune’e, sei sai parte husi forsa serbisu/forsa de traballu. Maski sé, hahu husi orasne’e, 

fertilidade hahu menus, kresimentu husi populasaun ho tinan/idade serbisu nian sei kontinua maka’as nafatin. 

Isu/asuntu importante iha kazu ne’e maka atu halo planu ba dalan oioin atu simu hola kresimentu ida nune’e. 

Ida-ne’e importante atu realize katak solusaun ba problema ne’e prinsipalmente maka ekonomia no politika, maibé 

komponente demografika, sosial no kultural. Funsaun husi demografia maka la’os deit atu fó dadus/informasaun ba 

ekonomista no planu nain sira maibé atu kontribui ho nia instrumentu konseptual no metodolojikal ba diskusaun 

politika publiku nian kona-ba hamoris kampo serbisu, investimentu no distribusaun rekursu oioin. 

9


INTRODUSAUN 

Projeksaun populasaun maka hanesan exersizu demografiku ida ne’ebé kompostu husi kalkulasaun emperikal bazeia 

ba sasukat populasaun nian iha futuru tuir hipotezia spesifiku kona-ba mudansa iha kresimentu populasaun ka nia 

komponente hirak (mortalidade, fertilidade no migrasaun). 

Projeksaun populasaun baibain halo tuir tinan/idade no sexu, no metodolojia ida-ne’ebé uza dalabarak liu maka 

metodu komponente, ne’ebé involve projeksaun independente ida husi mortalidade, fertilidade no migrasaun loloos 

nian. Prosedura hahu hodi hari’i baze populasaun ida tuir grupu sexu no tinan (dala barak grupu tinan lima). Ida-ne’e 

tipikalmente sensus populasaun ida-ne’ebé maka hadiak ona ba populasaun hirak-ne'ebé la sura durante periodu 

sensus no sala hirak iha kompozisaun tinan/idade no sexu. Grupu ida-ida husi tinan-sexu husi populasaun ne’e 

aumenta tuir tempu hodi aplika ba sira mortalidade no numeru migrasaun loloos nian, no hodi aumenta tan membru 

foun husi uza numeru fertilidade. 

Ida-ne’e importante atu klarifika katak, iha tempu wainhira hakerek dokumentu ne’e, katak projeksaun populasaun 

ida la’os exersizu siik ka konta istoria ka formula komplexu sientifika ida atu hare’e futuru. Wainhira hala’o projeksaun 

ida-nia objektivu maka la’os atu halo predisaun ba numeru populasaun ba tinan ka dekade hirak-ne’ebé maka tu 

mai iha futuru, maibe atu fó sasukat ida ba populasaun nian sé asunsaun balun kona-ba nivel mortalidade, fertilidade 

no migrasaun, no tendensia ne’ebé maka sei akontese iha futuru. 

Iha kazu ida-ne’e, projeksaun populasaun aka exersizu prospetivu ida kompara ba predisaun ida. Buat-ne’ebé 

importante maka atu labele siik numeru loloos husi labarik, foin sa’e adultu sira ka ferik/katuas sira ne’ebé sei moris 

iha teritoriu ida iha tinan 10 ka 20 atu mai. Buat-ne’ebé relevante maka atu hatene katak sé tendensia hirak iha 

komponente demografia ne’ebé maka mosu hanesan ho ida-ne’ebé maka hato’o iha exersizu projeksaun, numeru 

eskola sira, aula no profesora/profesor sira tenki aumenta hodi fó presentajen ida atu to’o iha kobertura edukasaun 

kompletu iha futuru, ekonomia tenki fó serbisu iha to’o parte ida atu realiza nivel desempregu ne’ebé ki’ik, no tenki 

harii kuantidade ida ba uma residensial atu hadook an husi falta uma. Ho liafuan seluk, projeksaun la’os instrumentu 

atu siik (predict) futuru maibé atu kontrui futuru (Romaniuc, 1990). 

Dinamika populasaun Timor-Leste nian tenki inklui ba faze hotu husi planu dezenvolvimentu. Pasu dala uluk liu ba 

serbisu ida-ne’e maka atu prepara projeksaun populasaun hirak-ne’ebé bele hola modelu ba situasaun no fó 

informasaun ne’ebé diak kona-ba sa’ida maka hare’e ba sei akontese iha futuru, atu hatene bele antisipa sa’ida, no sé 

bele, atu antisipa mundansa demografia importante hirak ba dezenvolvimentu nasional. Maski-ne’e, dokumentu idane’e 

aprezenta rezultadu husi projeksaun populasaun ba Timor-Leste iha nivel nasional tuir tinan/idade no sexu no ba 

periodu 2004 ba 2050. Baze populasaun no mós maioria dadus/informasaun ne’ebé maka uza atu halo estimasaun ba 

nivel no estruktura husi komponente sira, mai husi Sensus Populasaun no Uma ikus liu nian ne’ebé hala’o iha tinan 

2004. 

10


METODU 

Medotu uza atu prepara projeksaun populasaun hirak-ne’e maka metodu komponente grupu (cohort method group). 

Ida-ne’e maka tekniku ida-ne’ebé avansadu liu, no nune’e, tekniku ne’e uza iha nasaun barak tebes atu halo 

projeksaun populasaun sira. Nia prinsipiu maka atu avansa tuir tempu, kresimentu hirak iha tinan lima, grupu tinan 

lima husi baze populasaun ida, dala barak liu maka sensus populasaun foin lailais nian (George, et all., 2004). 

Nune’e, iha nia forma baziku, metodu ida-ne’e fó projeksaun ba populasaun tuir sexu no grupu tinan/idade lima ba 

final husi ‘quinquenium’ ida-idak husi periodu projeksaun. Nu’udár temi ona iha leten ba, sensus 2004 husi Timor- 

Leste hadiak ona tuir konsiderasaun lubuk ida, explika iha parte seluk, atu harii baze populasaun. Populasaun ne’ebé 

maka hadiak ne’e hare’e ba to’o tinan 2050. 

Projeksaun ida-ne’e hala’o uza programa (software) Projeksaun Rurais-Urbanu (RUP) ne’ebé Departementu Sensus 

Estadus Unidas Amerika nian maka dezenvolve. Vantajen boot husi programa ne’e maka katak nia permiti atu hala’o 

projeksaun tuir tinan klik husi idade (duke tinan lima nu’udár iha metodu konvensional). Dadus ba grupu tinan 

partikular ne’ebé la tama ba grupu konvensional tinan lima nian bele hetan ho karakteristiku ida-ne’e. Buat-ne’e mós 

halo nia sai posibel atu tuir grupu populasaun ne’ebé bele ki’ik ka boot liu grupu haktuir malu tamba eventu 

demografiku pasadu. Hatutan liútan, projeksaun ida-ne’e hala’o tina-tinan. Hodi uza karakteristika ida-ne’e, iha 

posibilidade atu aumenta tan informasaun ba eventu demografiku ba tinan partikular ida hodi la obriga nia impaktu 

ba periodu tinan lima ida. Nia mós fó utente sira estimasaun ba tina-tinan hodi la kahur entre dadus/informasaun ba 

tinan klaran. Hatama dadus/informasaun ba populasaun no komponente sira bele fó liúhusi tinan klik hirak ka grupu 

tinan lima sira. Halo grupu ba tinan hanesan pontu independente, nune’e iha posiblidade atu hatama dadus/ 

informasaun tinan lima ba pontu balun no dadus/informasaun tinan klik ba seluk. Programa muda dadus/informasaun 

hotu ne’ebé maka prepara ona ba tinan klik hirak husi idade molok hala’o projeksaun (Arriaga and associates, 1994). 

Fleksibilidade ida-ne’e iha vantajen atu permiti peritu demografia ida atu dezenvolve modelu projeksaun ida ne’ebé 

kaer loloos situasaun demografia husi nasaun ida no uza didiak tebes dadus/informasaun ne’ebé ho lala’ok ida iha 

ne’ebé informasaun ne’e besik tebes ba nia forma orijinal. Programa fó rezultadu hirak ba medidas demografia oioin 

ba kualker tinan ne’ebé maka fó iha periodu projeksaun nian, hanesan, populasaun tuir tinan/idade no sexu (tinan klik 

hirak, grupu tinan 5 hirak, no grupu tinan/idade partikular hirak), medidas sumariu, numeru importante sumariu, 

tabela moris nian, numeru migrasaun, numeru moris no mate, no selu-seluk tan. 

11


ESTIMASAUN BA KOMPONENTE SIRA 

Estatistika kona-ba moris no mate ne’ebé sistema rejistrasaun importante Timor-Leste nian fó la kompletu no la iha 

posibilidade atu uza sira atu halo estimasaun ba nivel fertilidade no mortalidade. Durante tinan 50 liúba tekniku 

demografia siara dezenvolve ona metodu ne’ebé maka diak atu halo estimasaun ba mortalidade no fertilidade husi 

dadus/informasaun sensus (United Nations, 1983). Metodu hirak-ne’e maka naran metodu indireitu hirak, ne’ebé 

extensivamente utilize iha tipu husi serbisu hirak hanesan-ne’e. 

Estimasaun ba mortalidade 

Faze importante ida iha exersizu projeksaun ida maka atu dezenvolve tabela moris nian ida ba inisiu husi periodu 

projeksaun. Tabela moris ida maka figura organizadu no kompletu ida ba mortalidade populasaun nian. Tabela ne’e 

sei kompostu husi apresentasaun tabulariu husi medidas mortalidade hirak-ne’ebé maka iha ligasaun (ka tabela 

funsaun hirak) tuir grupu tinan/idade hirak. Funsaun ne’ebé importante liu maka probabilidade atu mate ida tinan 

kada tinan, probabilidade atu moris iha kada tinan no esperansa moris nian. Ida tuir mai maka numeru estandar ba 

tinan adisional ne’ebé ema ida sei moris, sé tendensia mortalidade oras-ne’e sei kontinua ba parte hotu husi ema ne’e 

nia moris. Numeru esperansa moris nian ida-ne’ebé temi liu maka esperansa moris wainhira foin moris (PRB, 2000). 

Iha exersizu projeksaun ida, tabela ba inisiu moris nian uza atu avalia sensus populasaun no konsekuensiamente harii 

baze populasaun, no importante liu, tabela ne’e maka tenki sai nu’udar pontu inisiu ba projeksaun mortalidade. 

Tabela 1 hatudu kona-ba tabela moris nian ne’ebé maka uza daudaun oras-ne’e. Nia koresponde ba tinan 2002. Nota 

katak tabela ne’e inklui esplikaaun ida ba artigu ida-idak ka funsaun hirak husi tabela nian. Prosedura ne’ebé uza atu 

harii tabela moris ida-ne’e maka nu’udár aprezenta tuir mai: 

Mane 

Tinan (x) 

Tabela 1 

Timor-Leste: Tabela moris tinan 2002, mane no feto 

Luan (n) M(X,N) Q(X,N) I(X) D(X,N) L(X,N) S(X,N) T(X) 

E(X) A(X,N) 

0 1 0.10718 0.10000 100000 10000 93300 .89277 /A/ 5740000 57.400 0.330 

1 4 0.00739 0.02901 90000 2611 353087 .97400 /B/ 5646700 62.741 1.352 

5 5 0.00200 0.00993 87390 868 434779 0.99175 5293613 60.575 2.500 

10 5 0.00131 0.00655 86522 567 431193 0.99147 4858833 56.157 2.500 

15 5 0.00229 0.01137 85955 977 427516 0.98592 4427641 51.511 2.688 

20 5 0.00332 0.01645 84978 1398 421497 0.98325 4000124 47.072 2.574 

25 5 0.00336 0.01667 83580 1394 414438 0.98261 3578627 42.817 2.517 

30 5 0.00372 0.01843 82186 1515 407230 0.97965 3164189 38.500 2.558 

35 5 0.00460 0.02275 80671 1836 398943 0.97375 2756959 34.175 2.596 

40 5 0.00618 0.03047 78835 2402 388469 0.96364 2358016 29.911 2.624 

45 5 0.00886 0.04337 76433 3315 374345 0.94695 1969547 25.768 2.641 

50 5 0.01327 0.06434 73118 4704 354486 0.92173 1595202 21.817 2.639 

55 5 0.01975 0.09431 68414 6452 326741 0.88603 1240717 18.135 2.624 

60 5 0.02934 0.13709 61962 8495 289503 0.83346 913976 14.751 2.609 

65 5 0.04478 0.20209 53467 10805 241288 0.75353 624473 11.680 2.589 

70 5 0.07049 0.30043 42662 12817 181817 0.63974 383185 8.982 2.543 

75 5 0.11130 0.43377 29845 12946 116315 .42237 /C/ 201368 6.747 2.458 

80 + 0.19869 ..... 16899 16899 85052 ..... 85052 5.033 5.033 

12 

(kontinua)

Tabela 1 (kontinuasaun) 

Feto 

Tinan (x) 


Luan (n) M(X,N) Q(X,N) I(X) D(X,N) L(X,N) S(X,N) T(X) 

0 1 0.10222 0.09574 100000 9574 93655 .89407 /A/ 5889992 58.900 0.337 

1 4 0.00895 0.03498 90426 3163 353382 .97053 /B/ 5796337 64.100 1.368 

5 5 0.00226 0.01125 87264 982 433863 0.99074 5442955 62.374 2.500 

10 5 0.00145 0.00725 86282 625 429845 0.99142 5009091 58.055 2.500 

15 5 0.00211 0.01050 85656 899 426155 0.98769 4579246 53.461 2.635 

20 5 0.00284 0.01408 84757 1194 420908 0.98465 4153091 49.000 2.589 

25 5 0.00333 0.01650 83564 1379 414447 0.98233 3732183 44.663 2.555 

30 5 0.00382 0.01892 82185 1555 407122 0.97946 3317737 40.369 2.555 

35 5 0.00451 0.02230 80630 1798 398762 0.97581 2910614 36.099 2.561 

40 5 0.00534 0.02638 78831 2080 389115 0.97037 2511852 31.864 2.576 

45 5 0.00684 0.03364 76752 2582 377584 0.96025 2122737 27.657 2.609 

50 5 0.00964 0.04715 74170 3497 362576 0.94279 1745153 23.529 2.634 

55 5 0.01435 0.06942 70673 4906 341831 0.91310 1382578 19.563 2.649 

60 5 0.02280 0.10822 65767 7118 312125 0.86294 1040746 15.825 2.652 

65 5 0.03747 0.17208 58649 10092 269346 0.78304 728622 12.423 2.632 

70 5 0.06246 0.27129 48557 13173 210909 0.66701 459276 9.459 2.580 

75 5 0.10288 0.40904 35384 14473 140678 .43359 /C/ 248367 7.019 2.496 

80 + 0.19417 ..... 20910 20910 107689 ..... 107689 5.150 5.150 

\a\ Valor fó maka ba sobrebivente husi grupu 5 husi tempu moris to’o grupu tinan/ida 0-4 = L(0,5)/500000 

\b\ Valor ne’ebé fó maka S(0,5) = L(5,5)/L(0,5) 

\c\ Valor ne’ebé fó maka S(75+,5) = T(80)/T(75) 

Funsaun tabela moris nian: 

Numeru mortalidade tinan-espesifiku, maka, numeru mate nian kalkula husi group tinan sira ida-ida (husi x to x+n) 

Q(X,N) = Probabilidade husi mate entre tinan aserta x no x+n 

I(X) = Numeru husi sobrevivente sira iha tinan x husi moris 100,000 

D(X,N) = Numeru husi ema-tinan hirak-ne’ebé maka ema moris entre tinan x no x+n 

L(X,N) = Numeru husi ema-tinan hirak-ne’ebé maka ema moris entre tinan x no x+n sira 

S(X,N) = Rasiu husi sobrevivente ba ema hirak-nia tinan x ba x+n (hare’e catatan kaki tabela nian a, b no c) 

T(X) = Numeru husi ema-tinan hirak-ne’ebé ema moris hafoin tinan x 

E(x) = Esperansa moris nian iha tinan x 

A(X,N) = Maioria husi ema – tinan hirak-ne’ebé ema hirak moris ba entre tinan x no x+n 

Iha nasaun barak, falta estatistiku importante, elaborasaun ba tabela moris ida hahu ho estimasaun indireita husi 

mortalidade bebe no labarik nian. Survei demografia no sensus tomak inklui kestaun atu halo estimasaun ba 

mortalidade wainhira tinan hahu foufoun. Hirak-ne’e kestaun hirak-ne’ebé simples, husu ba sira hotu ne’ebé maka ho 

tinan 15 ka liu, refere ba labarik moris hirak maka sira hahoris ona no hira maka mate ona (ka moris nafatin). Sensus 

2004 nian inklui kestaun hirak-ne’e. Dadus/informasaun partikular uza atu halibur estatistika kona-ba proporsaun 

husi labarik hirak-ne’ebé maka mate ona hafoin moris, tuir sira-nia inan nia tinan/idade. Dadus/informasaun hirakne’e 

transforma liúhusi metodu indireitu hirak ba numeru mortalidade bebe no labarik nian. Mortalidade bebe maka 

probabilidade atu mate entre hafoin moris no wainhira halo tinan ba dala ulu. Labarik sira-nia mortalidade maka 

probabilidade atu mate entre aserta tinan ida no lima (PRB, 2000). 

Metodu indireita hirak-ne’ebé uza beibeik liu maka tekniku ‘Brass-type’ sira. Willian Brass, demografer Ingles ida, 

maka prosedura ne’ebé dala uluk ne’ebé dezenvolve atu muda proporsaun labarik hirak-ne’ebé moris maibé mate 

ona, ne’ebé feto hirak (tuir grupu tinan nian) hato’o ba estimasaun probabilidade atu mate molok to’o loloos iha tinan 

labarik nian (United Nations, 1983). Hafoin, dezenvolve tiha versaun ne’ebé hadiak ona. Variasaun importante rua 

maka Tekniku Trussell no tekniku Palloni-Haligman (United Nations, 1988). Variasaun rua uza tabela modelu moris 

nian. Tekniku Trussell sira uza Tabela Modelu Moris Rejiaun Coale-Demeny nian (Loromonu, Tasi-mane, Lorosa’e 

no Tasi Feto), no tekniku Palloni-Haligman uza Nasoens Unidas nia Tabela Modelu Moris nian (Latin Amerika, 

Chili, Asia Tasi Mane nian, Mediu Oriente no Jeral). Iha-ne’e, uza ona programa demografika MORTPAK atu halo 

estimasaun mortalidade bebe no labarik nian (United Nations, 1988). Tamba metodu hirak uza tabela modelu moris 

nian sira, hare’e ba presiza atu hari’i modelu ida-ne’ebé maka aserta ba modelu mortalidade husi Timor-Leste nian. 

13 

E(X) A(X,N)


Diferensa entre mortalidade bebe no labarik maka kriteria importante atu konsidera wainhira hili tabela modelu moris 

nian ne’ebé uza atu halo estimasaun ba mortalidade tinan seidauk to’o lima ho tekniku ‘Brass-type’ ida. Seleksaun 

ida-ne’e bele bazeia ba karakteristika epidemiolojikal balun husi mortalidade wainhira iha tinan foufoun, konaba 

esperiensia mortalidade husi nasaun hirak-ne’ebé maka ho demografia, kultura, karakteristika sosial no ekonomia 

hanesan ka kona-ba rezultadu husi survei demografia no saudé sira. Sé falta informasaun ida-ne’e, rekomenda duni 

atu uza modelu Loromonu husi Tabela Moris Rejional Coale-Demenu ka modelu Jeral husi Tabela Moris Nasoens 

Unidas nian. Razaun maka katak modelu hirak-ne’e koresponde ba modelu mortalidade baibain ka jeral hirak. 

Evidensia ida-ne’ebé maka sujere ida-ne’e ba Timor-Leste, modelu ne’ebé los liu atu uza ba estimasaun 

indireitamente husi mortalidade tinan lima ba kraik maka modelu Lorosa’e husi Tabela Moris Rejiaun Coale- 

Demeny nian. Kona-ba mortalidade iha tinan foun, modelu ida-ne’e marka ho diferensa ne’ebé boot entre 

mortalidade bebe no labarik nian. Ho liafuan seluk katak tama iha komponetu ida husi numeru mortalidade tinan 

foufoun maka’as tebes wainhira komponente tinan 1-4 komparativamente ki’ik. 

Survei Demografia no Saude (DHS) ne’ebé hala’o iha tinan 2003 (Ministeriu Saude...2003) fó evidensia ida-ne’ebé 

la’os konklusivu maibé importante liu. Tuir estimasaun direita ba mortalidade husi tinan foufoun ba periodu tinan 

1994-2003 (bazeia ba istoria reprodutivu sira, ne’ebé la presiza atu depende ba tabela modelu moris nian) 

mortalidade bebe nian maka mate 82 kada moris rihun ida no mate 25 kada labarik rihun ida husi hirak-ne’ebé maka 

ho tinan 1-4. Diferensa boot ida-ne’e tipiku Coale-Demenu nia Modelu Loromonu. Tamba razaun oioin lubuk ida, 

nivel husi mortalidade tinan lima ba kraik ne’ebé kalkula iha DHS hare’e ba ladun fó valor. Ida-ne’e la’os fatin atu 

diskuti isu/asuntu ne’e tamba nia kompleksidade. Maibé, iha posibilidade katak maski iha problema ne’e, diferensa 

boot entre mortalidade bebe no labari los tebe-tebes. Ida-ne’e bele akontese ida-ne’ebé maka la iha valor iha impaktu 

hanesan ba komponente rua hotu husi mortalidade tinan foufoun. 

Atu aumenta, faktu seluk sujere katak modelu ne’ebé iha ligasaun ba mortalidade bebe no labarik koresponde ba 

modelu lorosa’e. Espesialmente iha ligasaun maka numeru fertilidade ne’ebé maka’as ne’ebé existi iha rai laran. 

Komponente importante ida husi mortalidade bebe, liliu mortalidade hafoin moris (bebe sira-nia mate mosu to’o 

loron 28 hafoin moris), maka estatus saude inan sira-nian. Impaktu husi fertilidade ne’ebé maka’as ba saude inan no 

bebe nian hatene diak hotu ona. Modelu fertilidade inan-nian iha impaktu ne’ebé maka’as ba mortalidade bebe nian, 

ho probabilidade hirak hanesan mate maka’as liu ba labarik hirak ne’ebé maka husi inan hirak-ne’ebé maka joven liu 

ka idade liu ona, ka sé intervalu moris nian badak liu, ka sé labarik husi numeru moris ne’ebé boot. Tuir DHS, 59% 

husi moris iha Timor-Leste iha risku mortalidade ida ne’ebé maka’as tamba tendensia husi fertilidade ho risku ne’ebé 

maka’as entre inan sira (Ministry of Health, et all., 2003). Nune’e, iha mortalidade bebe ida-ne’ebé maka’as tamba 

risku importante hirak-ne’ebé maka iha ligasaun ho numeru fertilidade ne’ebé maka’as. Iha parte seluk, mortalidade 

labarik nian ladun depende ba estatus saude inan-nian, nune’e, ida-ne’e ladun hetan afeita hosu vulnerabilidade 

adisional tamba tendensia risku fertilidade ne’ebé maka’as. Nune’e, kompara ba numeru mortalidade bebe nian, 

numeru mortalidade labarik nian ki’ik liu. 

Uza metodu ‘Brass-type’ ne’ebé maka temi ona iha leten ho modelu lorosa’e nian, valor estimasaun ba mortalidade 

bebe nian maka moris rihun ida iha mate 98. Numeru ba mane maka 102 no ba feto maka 94. Valor hirak-ne’e 

koresponde ba tinan 2002. Metodu mós fó estimasaun katak mortalidade bebe nian ba tinan hirak liúba, liliu ba tinan 

1996, 1998 no tinan 2000. Numeru respektivu ba kombiasaun sexu rua maka kada moris rihun ida iha mate 126, 110 

no 101. Kona-ba mortalidade labarik nian, numeru estimasaun ba tinan 2002, maka bebe ho tinan 1 ba 4 nain 31 

maka mate husi moris rihun ida-ne’ebé maka moris. Numeru ba mane maka 34 no 29 ba feto sira. Nu’udár iha kazu 

mortalidade bebe nian, dadus/informasaun indika redusaun ida. Ba kombinasaun sexu rua, numeru ba tinan 1996, 

1998 no tinan 2000 maka respektivamente nain 47, 38 no 33. 

Numeru mortalidade labarik nian ne’ebé importante liu ba objektivu husi faze inisial ida-ne’e ba exersizu projeksaun 

maka ida-foin lailais-ne’e maka birak-ne’ebé ba tinan 2002. Sira maka kontribusaun importante atu hari’i tabela 

inisial moris nian. Importante mós maka faktu katak mortalidade tinan foufoun menus daudaun ona, maibé 

informasaun ida-ne’e relevante liu ba atu avalia tendensia mortalidade futuru. 

Hafoin iha tiha estimasaun ba mortalidade bebe no labarik nian, hala’o esforsa ida atu halo estimasaun ba 

mortalidade adultu nian husi uza mos metodu indireitu ida. Ida-ne’e bazeia ba informasaun kona-ba sobrebibente 

parente (inan aman) sira-nian (ba hare’e Brass and Hill, 1973 and UN, 1983). Iha segunda faze, bele kombina 

probabilidade hirak-ne’e ho numeru mortalidade tinan foufoun nian no hetan tabela moris nian ida-ne’ebé kompletu. 

14


Sensus tinan 2004 inklui kestaun hirak kona-ba estatus maternal ka paternal sira nia inan ka aman natural sei moris 

ka la’e. Maski-nune’e, rezultadu hirak-ne’ebé maka hetan ho metodu ida-ne’e la konsisten. Problema boot ida maka 

modelu husi mortalidade adultu nian ne’ebé rezultadu hirak sujere. Difikuldade loloos maka katak metodu bazeia ba 

asunsaun lubuk ida ne’ebé katak ba kazu Timor-Leste nian la validu ida (hare’e United Nations, 1983). 

Nune’e, tabela moris ne’ebé estimasaun halao ona atu hahu exersizu projeksaun bazeia deit ba rezultadu hirak husi 

estimasaun indireitu husi mortalidade bebe no labarik nian. Uza duni metodu no, partikularmente, programa ne’ebé 

maka uza (MORTPAK, hare’e Nasoens Unidas tinan 1998) mós fó estimasaun esperansa moris nian wainhira moris 

koresponde ba numeru respektivu mortalidade iha tinan foufoun. Esperansa moris nian iha tempu moris maka valor 

importante ne’ebé tabele moris nian no indikador ne’ebé maka dala barak liu kalkula no hatuir kona-ba nivel 

mortalidade nian fó. Ida-ne’e bele diside nu’udár numeru tinan normal hirak-ne’ebé maka husu atu bebe foun ida atu 

moris sé nivel mortalidade no modelu ba tinan hirak-ne’ebé maka iha ba nia moris (PRB, 2000). 

Nune’e, tuir numeru mortalidade bebe no labarik nian hirak-ne’ebé maka halo ona estimasaun husi sensu, esperansa 

moris iha tinan 2002 maka tinan 57.4 ba mane no tinan 58.9 ba feto sira. Dala ida-tan uza MORTPAK, tabela moris 

kompleta koresponde ba esperansa moris hirak-ne’e hetan ona. Hirak-ne’e maka, koretamente, tabela moris nian 

ne’ebé aprezenta iha Tabela 1. Nu’udár temi ona iha leten, utiliza duni metodu indireitu ‘Brass-type’ atu halo 

estimasaun ba mortalidade tinan foufoun la’os deit halo estimasaun ba tinan 2002 maibé ba tinan 1996, 1998 no tinan 

2000. Prosedura hanesan mós uza atu hetan tabela moris husi tinan hirak-ne’ebá. Tabele moris adisional hirak-ne’e la 

uza ba projeksaun-ne’e rasik maibé analiza seluk ne’ebé maka iha ligasaun. 

Asunsaun katak Tabela Moris nian husi Rejiaun Coale-Demeny mós ne’ebé aserta ba mortalidade adultu nian adopta 

mós iha ne’e. Atu halo estimasaun ba esperansa moris nian iha bazeia husi numeru mortalidade tinan foufoun no atu 

hetan tabela kompletu ida husu medidas hirak-ne’e, tenki hili modelu tabela moris ida. Baibain wainhira tabela moris 

ida sufisientemente duplika modelu mortalidade tinan foufoun, nia mós sei duplika ho didiak modelu husi 

mortalidade adultu nian. 

Estimasaun ba fertilidade 

Estimasaun ba numeru fertilidade total (TFR) no numeru tinan espesifiku ba fertilidade (ASFR) hetan husi sensu 

tinan 2004 hodi aplika tekniku indireita ida hanaran P/F ratio (hare’e United Nations, 1983). TFR maka medida 

ne’ebé tipikalmente uza atu komunika nivel fertilidade oras-ne’e nian. Ida-ne’e halo estimasaun hodi sura numeru 

tinan espesifiku ba fertilidade (ASFR) no produz numeru normal husi labarik ne’ebé maka feto sira sei ko’us/tur ahi 

sé sira-nia fertilidade sempre sa’e to’o sira-nia vida reprodutivu hotu. Dadus/informasaun sensus nian utiliza atu 

kalkula medidas hirak-ne’e maka numeru husi moris tuir tinan inan nian durante fulan 12 molok sensus hala’o (hetan 

husi kestaun ida kona-ba dadus moris nian husi labarik ne’ebé moris ikus liu) no numeru husi labarik hirak-ne’e 

maka sira tur ahi ona no moris, no mós tuir tinan/idade feto sira-nian. Rezultadu husi kalkulasaun ida-ne’e aprezenta 

iha Tabela 2. Ko’alia ho firmi, TFR ne’eb’e maka halo ona estimansaun ho dalan ida-ne’e koresponde ba tinan lima 

husi tinan 1999-2003, maski dala barak tau liúba sensus tinan uluk (tinan 2003). 

Tabela 2 

Timor-Leste: Numeru tinan/idade fertilidade espesifiku hirak no numer fertilidade total, 

tinan 2003 

Tinan ASFR 

15-19 0.0592 

20-24 0.2830 

25-29 0.3467 

30-34 0.3159 

35-39 0.2300 

40-44 0.1156 

45-49 0.0388 

TFR 6.95 

15


TFR kalkula husi sensus no mós halo estimasaun husi survey demografia foin lailais-ne’e (Ministry of Health, et all., 

2003; UNICEF, 2002), indika katak nivel fertilidade inan iha Timor-Leste maka ida-ne’ebé maka’as liu iha mundu. 

Tuir DHS tinan 2003 nian, iha periodu husu periodu 2000 – 2003, feto Timor-Leste baibain iha oan to’o nain 7.77 

(Ministry of Health, et all, 2003). Naran estimasaun hirak-ne’e, ida-ne’ebé husi sensus ka ida-ne’ebé husi DHS, 

maka’as liu kompara ba hirak-ne’ebé maka observa ona iha kualker nasaun iha Relatoriu Dezenvolvimentu Humanu 

UNDP nian, tinan 2005). 

Relevante mós atu temi katak diferensa entre TFR hirak-ne’ebé maka sensus tinan 2004 maka halo estimasaun la’os 

surpresa. Nia baze hirak maka oioin: eis kobre husi populasaun kompletu no exemplu ida ne’ebé tuir mai, kestaun atu 

sukat numeru husi moris lahanesan no to’o metodu hirak atu kalkula numeru sira mós lahanesan. Hatutan liútan, 

numeru sensus nian refere ba 1999-2003 no survei ba tinan 2000-2003. 

Migrasaun Internasional 

Migrasaun internasional maka komponente ida-ne’ebé difisil liu atu halo estimasaun iha projeksaun ida. Razaun ida 

maka katak dadus/informasaun sensus nian so bele uza deit atu halo estimasaun imigrasaun internasional maibé la’os 

emigrasaun (só la’e so uza mós sensus hirak husi rai seluk nian). Estratejia ida ne’ebé maka uza dala barak liu maka 

atu halo estimasaun numeru migrasaun loloos indireitamente ba periodu entre sensus. Nune’e presiza sensus rua no 

numeru sobrebivente entre sensus. Teoretikamente, metodu ida-ne’e bele uza iha ne’e ho estimasaun indiretia husi 

tabela moris nian sira no sensus Indonesia nian iha tinan 1990. Maibé, nu’udár esplika iha parte uluk ba, tinan 1990 

hanesan dekade komflitu, violensia no instabilidade ida, nune’e, metodu indireita hirak bele fó estimasaun numeru 

loloos migrasaun nian ne’ebé laloos ka labele uza. Maski sé numeru loloos migrasaun nian los/konsisten, sira sei 

seluk no ladun uza ba projeksaun ida. Tamba ursida maka sei esplika, numeru migrasaun pasadu loloos nian 

dalabarak hetan extrapolaasun iha premeiru dekade husi periodu projeksaun nian. Sei la realistiku atu asume katak 

numeru migrasaun loloos nian iha futuru hanesan ba hirak-ne’ebé maka akontese durante dekade ida-ne’ebé maka la 

estavel. 

Sensus tinan 2004 iha dadus/informasaun barak atu halo estimasaun ba imigrasaun internasional maibé labele uza 

nu’udár baze ida ba projeksaun ne’ebé bele uza tamba emigrasaun labele hetan. Ida-ne’e sei labale atu kalkula ema 

nain hirak maka muda tama ona mai rai laran sé imposibel uit’oan atu hatene nain hirak maka sai husi nasaun ida. 

Maibé importante atu temi katak dadus/informasaun sensus tinan 2004 kona-ba imigrasaun indika numeru maka’as 

maibé maka ida bele iha diskunfia katak instabilidade maka halo buat ne’e no jeralmente ema hirak-ne’ebé deslokadu 

durante violensia iha tinan 1990 nian lara maka foin fila mai. Isu/asuntu ida-ne’e sei diskuti iha seksaun seluk. 

16


BAZE POPULASAUN 

Operasaun ida-ne’ebé importante liu iha exersizu projeksaun maka atu hari’i baze populasaun, ne’ebé dala barak 

maka sensus populasaun ne’ebé iku liu ne’ebé hadiak ona tuir populasaun hirak-ne'ebé la sura durante periodu sensus 

halo relatoriu sala ba tinan. populasaun hirak-ne'ebé la sura durante periodu sensus ne’ebé iha impaktu ba sensus sira 

maka dala barak halo estimasaun no hadiak uza survei enumerasaun pasterior ida. Metodu ida-ne’e barak komportu 

husi hakerek filafali populasaun ne’ebé maka iha ona iha modelu segementu designadu ka area enumerasaun hodi 

uza survei ida. Survei ida-ne’e tenki hala’o lalais kedan hafoin survei. Hafoin kompara rezultadu hirak ho poulasaun 

ne’ebé maka sensus dokumenta ona iha segementu areia ne’ebé hanesan. (Wilmoth, 2004). Nia diferensa fó 

estimasaun ida husi populasaun hirak-ne'ebé la sura durante periodu sensus. Tamba falta rekurus oioin, survei 

enumerasaun pasterior ida la hala’o iha Timor-Leste hafoin Sensus tinan 2004. Maski nune’e, hadiak ona sensus 

hodi uza metodu demografika ida. 

Iha kuaze sensus sira hotu, problema kona-ba populasaun hirak-ne'ebé la sura durante periodu sensus no halo 

relatoriu salo ba tinan ba grupu husi tinan 0-4 kuaze hanesan wainhira ba grupu ho tinan 5-9 sé la halo relatoriu 

demais ka halo relatoriu sala bele mosu. Atu hadiak dadus/informasaun ba grupu tinan hirak-ne’e, hala’o prosedura 

hirak tuir mai ne’e: Ba grupu tinan 0-4, halo ona konkluzaun katak fertilidade sei nafatin hela durante 5 molok sensus 

(1999-2004), ho TFR husi oan nain 7.0 kada feto ida (hare’e seksaun ba estimasaun fertilidade). Sensus ba 

populasaun feto projeita kontrariu tuir tinan klik¹. Numeru tinan fertilidade espesifiku koresponde ba tinan 1999-2004 

aplika ba projeksaun kontrariu ba feto sira atu bele hetan numeru moris hirak iha tinan lima ida-idak molok sensus. 

Buat hirak-ne’e fahe tuir sexu, asume katak rasio sexu ida husi moris maka 105 ba kada feto 100. Hafoin moris hirakne’ebé 

moris duni to’o dadus sensus nian uza numeru sobrebivente husi tabele moris nian ne’ebé iha (hare’e seksaun 

kona-ba estimasaun husi mortalidade). Ho dala ida-ne’e, estimasaun populasaun independente ida ba tinan 0-4 hetan 

duni. Rezultadu sujere katak numeru husi mane ho tinan 0-4, ne’ebé sensus dokumenta ona, tenki hasa’e tuir faktor 

ida husi 1.131 no numeru feto sira ho tinan 0-4 tenki hasa’e tuir faktor ida husi 1.148. 

Prosedura hanesan mós hala’o ba grupu tinan/idade 5 ba 9 maibé iha kazu ida-ne’e uza numeru husi hirak-ne’ebé 

konsege moris ne’ebé koresponde ba tinan 1994-1999. Sensus feto sira-nia projeita kontrariu ba tinan 10. Konklui 

katak TFR hanesan mós ho tinan lima (oan nain 7.0 kada feto ia). Numeru mane hirak ho tinan 5 – 9 tenki hasa’e ba 

faktor ida husi 1.061 no numeru feto hirak-ne’ebé maka ho tinan/idade hanesan tenki hasa’e tuir factor ida husi 

1.075. Faktor ajustamentu hat ne’e maka aplika ba sensus populasaun ba tinan 0-4 no 5 – 9. 

Iha jeral, under-enumeration ladun afeita populasaun ho tinan 10 no liútán, maibé afeita husi halo relatoriu sala ba 

tinan. Problama ida-ne’e orsida hamenus wanihira populasaun tau ba iha kategoria grupu tinan 5 nu’udár kazu iha 

ne’e. Maib’e, eru balun sei bele iha nafatin maski dadus/informasaun tau ona iha grupu. Problema maka katak buatne’e 

difisil tebe-tebes, ka imposibel, tuir realidade, atu determina kontribusaun ketak husi populasaun hirak-ne'ebé la 

sura durante periodu sensus ka impaktu husi halo relatoriu ba tinan sala ba populasaun iha grupu tinan/idade 

partikular ida no mós atu fahe eru hirak husi fluktuasaun loloos (Hobbs, 2004). Ida-ne’e maka kazu partikular iha 

Timor -Leste. 

Figura 1 hatudu piramida populasaun husi populasaun Timor-Leste nian tuir Sensus tinan 2004. Piramida populasaun 

reprezenta kompozisaun husi populasaun ida nia tinan no sexu. Tabela Horizontal hatudu numeru hirak (ka) 

persentajen hirak) husi mane no feto sira iha grupu tinan/idade ida-idak. Perfil husi piramida ida bele dehan sai loloos 

kona-ba istoria husi populasaun ida tamba nia refleta modelu fertilidade, mortalidade no migrasaun pasadu no orasne’e 

ninian, ne’ebé nu’udár rezultadu husi mudansa ekonomia, sosial no politika sira. Piramida husi Timor-Leste iha 

forma triangle husi populasaun ida-ne’eb’e ho fertilidade no mortalidade ne’ebé tun daudaun, maibé nia mós iha 

iregularidade lubuk ida. Perturbasaun ne’e nu’udár impaktu husi mundansa derepenti iha fertilidade, mortalidade no 

1 Programa MOVEPOP husi pakote estatistika PAS uza ba projeksaun kontrariu. 

Hare’e Arriaga no asociatu, 1994. 

2 Indonesia invada Timor-Leste iha tinan 1975 no tinan 1999. Hatutan liubá respresaun politika, agrikultura subsisten, hahan, no suplai 

mediku intensionalmente istraga hotu, no rezulta iha mortalidade ne’ebé mka’as tebes. Tuir estimasaun katak mate ne’ebé maka iha ligasaun ho 

konflitu hamutuk 102,800 akontese husi tinan 1975 to’o 1999, o’ho entre 18,600 no liu 84,200 mate tamba hamlaha no moris (Silva no Ball, 

2006). Violensia liútan akontese hafaoin referendum ida iha tinan 1999, iha ne’ebé desizaun maioria ida, hamutuk 78% vota ba ukun rasik’ an. 

Maibé, iha reasaun ida ne’ebé aat tebes ne’ebé milisia pro-integrasaun sira maka halo no hetan suporte husi forsa armada Indonesia nian, no forsa 

ne’e rasik. Estimasaun dehan katak ema nain 1000 to’o 2000 maka mate no 1/3 husi populasaun obriga ba akampamentu refujiadu (UNDP, 2002). 

17


migrasaun ne’ebé rezultu husi akontesementu trajiku hirak-ne’ebé nasaun experiensia/hasoru ona durante dekade tolu 

ne’ebé liúba². Nu’udár izemplu, populasaun ho tinan 28-29 maka grupu ne’ebé moris hafoin independensia husi 

okupasaun Indonesia nian no nia sasukat ne’ebé ki’ik bele sai nu’udár rezultadu husi kanselasaun ida atu iha oan 

tamba insiguransa politikal no sosial. Iregularidade iha piramida bele mós tamba rezultadu hirak husi akontesementu 

no prosesu istoriku ne’ebé iha ligasaun ba okupasaun Indonesian nian ne’ebé kleur, resistensia no luta ba ukun 

rasik’an. 

Maski nune’e, importante tebes atu hatudu katak iregularidade balun tamba rezultadu husi halo relatoriu sala ba tinan 

ka populasaun hirak-ne'ebé la sura durante periodu sensus. Nu’udár temi ona, difisil tebe-tebes atu fahe modelu 

aktual husi eru sira. 

80 + 

75 - 79 

70 - 74 

65 - 69 

60 - 64 

55 - 59 

50 - 54 

45 - 49 

40 - 44 

35 - 39 

30 - 34 

25 - 29 

20 - 24 

15 - 19 

10 - 14 

5 - 9 

0 - 4 

Mane sira 

Figura 1 

Timor-Leste: Sensun populasaun tinan 2004 

80000 60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 

Iha tekniku atu hadiak kompozisaun tinan/idade husi populasaun ida atu hadiak problema hirak hanesan halo 

relatoriu sala ba tinan (Hare’e Arriaga and associates, 1994). Maibé, hodi aplike metodu hirak-ne’e flaktuasaun 

loloos mós lakon. Iha kazu Timor-Leste nian, flaktuasaun hirak-ne’e sei los kompara ba rezultadu husi eru iha halo 

relatoriu sala ba tinan. Iha tekniku seluk ne’ebé bazeia iha halibur sensus konsekutivu rua ho fertilidade, mortalidade 

no migrasaun inter-censal (Luther and Retherford, 1988). Ba kazu Timor-Leste nian, Sensus tinan 1990 iha³. Maibé, 

akontesementu barak ne’ebé akontese entre tinan 1999 no tinan 2002 iha Timor-Leste halo metodu ida-ne’e la los. 

Akontesementu hiak-ne’e bele rezultu ona hsu iregularidade no modelu demografia husi periodu entre sensus ne’ebé 

ho durasaun ne’ebé lahanesan baibain, kuaze imposibel atu halo estimasaun. Nune’e, desidi atu labele hadiak 

populasaun ho tinan 10 no liútan ho konsiderasaun katak ajustamentu hirak bele hamosu eru boot hirak. 

Sensus populasaun koresponde ba 11 Jullu 2004. Atu serbisu liútan objektivu planu nian hirak, projeksaun tenki iha 

dadus base ne’ebé koresponde ba tinan klaran, 30 Juñu. Atu bele muda populasaun sensus husi loron 11 fulan Jullu 

ba loron 30 fulan Juñu, uza Programa MOVEPOP husi pakote komputador PAS (hare’e Arriaga and associates, 

1994). Nune’e, populasaun ne’ebé maka projeta ba tinan ida-idak husi periodu projeksaun sei refere ba loron 30 

Juñu. 

3 Ida ne’e Sensus Populasaun tinan 1990 Indonesia nian ne’ebé hala’o wainhira Timor-Leste sei hanesan Timor-Timur, provinsia 

Indonesia nian. 

18 

Feto sira


Tabela 3 hatudu populasaun ne’ebé maka dokumenta ona, populasaun ne’ebé maka hadiak ona, diferensa persentajen 

no baze populasaun nian. 

Tabela 3 

Timor-Leste: Populasaun sensus ne’ebé la hadiak no hadiak no diferensa persentajen 

Tinan 

La hadiak Hadiak/adjusta 

Mane Feto Total Mane Feto Total 

0 - 4 77,720 73,024 150,744 87,898 83,834 171,732 

5 - 9 66,661 62,759 129,420 70,730 67,444 138,174 

10 - 14 61,422 57,225 118,647 61,422 57,225 118,647 

15 - 19 47,953 47,321 95,274 47,953 47,321 95,274 

20 - 24 37,640 38,061 75,701 37,640 38,061 75,701 

25 - 29 28,366 28,772 57,138 28,366 28,772 57,138 

30 - 34 32,227 30,183 62,410 32,227 30,183 62,410 

35 - 39 24,894 23,906 48,800 24,894 23,906 48,800 

40 - 44 22,513 23,433 45,946 22,513 23,433 45,946 

45 - 49 16,917 17,403 34,320 16,917 17,403 34,320 

50 - 54 16,651 16,282 32,933 16,651 16,282 32,933 

55 - 59 9,910 9,295 19,205 9,910 9,295 19,205 

60 - 64 10,613 9,903 20,516 10,613 9,903 20,516 

65 - 69 5,952 5,794 11,746 5,952 5,794 11,746 

70 - 74 4,922 4,764 9,686 4,922 4,764 9,686 

75 - 79 2,313 2,083 4,396 2,313 2,083 4,396 

80 + 3,245 3,071 6,316 3,245 3,071 6,316 

Total 469,919 453,279 923,198 484,166 468,774 952,940 


Diferensa Persentajen 

Baze populasaun 

(loron 1 fulan Jullu tinan 2004) 

Mane Feto Total Mane Feto Total 

0 - 4 -11.6 -12.9 -12.2 87,811 83,752 171,563 

5 - 9 -5.8 -6.9 -6.3 70,661 67,378 138,039 

10 - 14 0.0 0.0 0.0 61,361 57,168 118,529 

15 - 19 0.0 0.0 0.0 47,906 47,275 95,181 

20 - 24 0.0 0.0 0.0 37,603 38,023 75,626 

25 - 29 0.0 0.0 0.0 28,338 28,744 57,082 

30 - 34 0.0 0.0 0.0 32,195 30,153 62,348 

35 - 39 0.0 0.0 0.0 24,870 23,883 48,753 

40 - 44 0.0 0.0 0.0 22,491 23,410 45,901 

45 - 49 0.0 0.0 0.0 16,900 17,385 34,285 

50 - 54 0.0 0.0 0.0 16,635 16,266 32,901 

55 - 59 0.0 0.0 0.0 9,900 9,286 19,186 

60 - 64 0.0 0.0 0.0 10,602 9,893 20,495 

65 - 69 0.0 0.0 0.0 5,947 5,789 11,736 

70 - 74 0.0 0.0 0.0 4,917 4,759 9,676 

75 - 79 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,310 2,081 4,391 

80 + 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,242 3,068 6,310 

Total -2.9 -3.3 -3.1 483,689 468,313 952,002 

19


PROJEKSAUN BA KOMPONENTE SIRA 

Iha projeksaun presente nian, nu’udár iha maioria exersizu projeksaun sira, hari’i senariu tolu tuir baze husi hipoteze 

kona-ba mundansa hirak ba komponente sira. Hipotezia no senariu hirak-ne’e hari’i tuir baze asunsaun kona-ba 

oin’sa numeru sei hatudu iha futuru. Hanaran sira nu’udár mediu ka rekomenda, boot no ki’ik. Senariu mediu inklui 

asunsaun probabilidade hirak kona-ba mortalidade futuru no tendensia fertilidade. Kresimentu populasaun ne’ebé 

maka sei akontese iha futuru koresponde ba senariu ne’e. Senariu rua seluk reprezenta valor maximu ka minimum 

hirak ne’ebé numeru mortalidade no fertilidade bele sai iha futuru hodi konsidera karakteristiku populasaun ne’ebé 

maka estuda hela. Loloos, dala ruma sira bele iha probabilidade ne’ebé ki’ik maka atu mosu maibé kalkula ba sira nia 

valor analitika no atu marka limitasaun boot ka ki’ik ida iha ne’ebé kresimentu populasaun virtualmente fiar katak sei 

nafatin (George, et all. 2004). Senariu boot inklui hipoteze ne’ebé asume posibilidade ba fertilidade boot no numeru 

mortalidade wainhira senariu ki’ik inklui hipoteze hirak-ne’ebá hato’o posibilidade numeru ki’ik hirak. 

Nosaun husi kredibilidade analitika maka sentru ba kualker exersizu projeksaun. Asunsaun hirak ka hipoteze ne’ebé 

forma senariu tenki entre limita husi kredibilidade ne’ebé sujere husi karakteristika nasaun nian, nia tendensia demografia 

pasadu, esperiensia husi nasaun seluk nian no koñesementu demografia ne’ebé iha. Asunsaun tenki 

kredibilidade ba belun profesional sira no ba utente sira (Romaniuc, 1990). 

Iha projeksaun populasaun buat baibain ida atu asume katak nasaun sei la hetan impaktu husi funi ida, disastre 

natural ida ka krizi katastropia ekonomia ida. Maski iha posibilidade atu dezenvolve exersizu simulasaun hirak atu 

analiza impaktu demografia husi disastre, violensia no krizi ekonomia, projeksaun populasaun konvensional ida 

asume katak situasaun oras-ne’e sei la sofre kualker estragus iha futuru. Ida-ne’e la’os atu dehan katak la iha esforsu 

hirak-ne’ebé maka halo ona atu permiti mudansa sosial ekonomia iha futuru. Absolutamente ka momos deit, tau hotu 

ba konsiderasaun iha konstrusaun husi senariu hirak. 

Projesaun ba mortalidade 

Dalan baibain atu halo projeksaun ba mortalidade maka hodi halo projeksaun ba esperansa moris. Iha segunda faze, 

wainhira projeksaun populasaun mós hala’o daudaun, esperansa moris hirak-ne’ebé maka projeta ona iha ligasaun ba 

tabela moris hirak, liliu, numeru sobrebivente, ne’ebé maka aplika ba populasaun. 

Nu’udár temi ona, mortalidade hasoru daudaun redusaun durante decade pasadu no presente. Hare’e ba sei kontinua 

tun nafatin. Iha hipoteze tolu maka hato’o ona iha kazu ne’e. Nivel mortalidade ne’ebé maka observa foin lailias iha 

nasaun hirak-ne’ebé ho nivel dezenvolvimentu humanu ne’ebé maka’as uza nu’udár referensia ida. Tuir Relatoriu 

Dezenvolvimentu Humanu UNDP nian ba tinan 2005 (UNDP, 2005), nasaun hirak ho dezenvolvimentu humanu ida 

ne’ebé maka’as iha esperansa moris ida-ne’ebé aserta iha moris ba tinan 77, ba mane sira tinan 74 no ba feto sira 

tinan 80. 

1. Mediu ka hipoteze ne’ebé maka rekomenda ona. Asume ona katak ba tinan 2050 esperansa moris maka 

tinan 72 ba mane sira no 78 ba feto sira iha Timor-este, ida-ne’e atu dehan katak nivel mortalidade hirak sei 

menus tinan rua ba nivel ne’ebé maka oras-ne’e observa hela iha nasaun hirak ho dezenvolvimentu humanu 

ne’ebé boot. 

2. Hipoteze boot. Asume ona katak ba tinan 2050 esperansa moris maka tinan 68 ba feto sira no 74 ba mane 

sira, katak, menus tinan 6 ba nasaun hirak-ne’ebé maka observa hela oras-ne’e iha nasaun hirak-ne’ebé ho 

nivel dezenvolvimentu humanu boot. 

3. Hipoteze ki’ik. Assume katak ba tinan 2050 esperansa moris maka tinan 76 ba mane sira no tinan 82 ba feto 

sira, katak, tinan 2 liu nasaun hirak-ne’ebé maka oras-ne’e ho nivel dezenvolvimentu humanu boot. 

20


Interpolasaun linear maka kalkula esperansa moris hirak ba tinan entre 2002 no 2050. Rezultadu husi exersizu sira 

maka aprezenta iha Tabela 4 no figura 2b and 2b. 

Tabela 4 

Timor-Leste: Hipoteze kona-ba esperansa moris husi wainhira moris, 2002 to 2050 

e(o) 


2002 

2005 

2010 

2015 

2020 

2025 

2030 

2035 

2040 

2045 

2050 

85 

80 

75 

70 

65 

60 

55 

50 

Mediu 

Hipoteze 

Boot Ki’ik 

Mane Feto Mane Feto Mane Feto 

57.4 58.9 57.4 58.9 57.4 58.9 

58.3 60.1 58.1 59.8 58.6 60.3 

59.8 62.1 59.2 61.4 60.5 62.8 

61.4 64.1 60.3 63.0 62.4 65.2 

62.9 66.1 61.4 64.6 64.4 67.6 

64.4 68.1 62.5 66.1 66.3 70.0 

65.9 70.0 63.6 67.7 68.3 72.4 

67.4 72.0 64.7 69.3 70.2 74.8 

69.0 74.0 65.8 70.9 72.1 77.2 

70.5 76.0 66.9 72.4 74.1 79.6 

72.0 78.0 68.0 74.0 76.0 82.0 

Figura 2a: 

Timor-Leste: Esperansa moris ne’ebé projeita ona wainhira moris, 

mane sira tuir hipoteze tolu. 

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 

Mediu Boot Ki'ik 

21

e(o) 

90 

85 

80 

75 

70 

65 

60 

55 

50 


Figura 2b: 

Timor-Leste: Esperansa moris ne’ebé projeita ona, feto, tuir 

hipoteze tolu. 

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 


Oras-ne’e, nivel mortalidade iha Timor-Leste boot tebes no bele hare’e ba optimismu tebes atu konklui katak 

tendensia ne’ebé sei akontese maka kresimentu ida ba mais ka menus esperansa moris tinan 16 husi tempu moris iha 

tinan 46 nia laran. Maibé, kontributor boot ba mortalidade boot maka mortalidade bebe nian no hare’e ba katak 

governu iha intensaun atu hamenus prokupasaun ne’e maka’as tebes. Ministeriu Saude halo ona hakerek ona politika 

nasional ida ba imunizasaun ne’ebé ho objektivu atu hadiak kobertura imunizasaun iha Timor-Leste tomak, liliu 

liúhusi haklaken saude no edukasaun. Politika nasional ida kona-ba nutrisaun komunidade nian mós prepara daudaun 

hela. Targetu nasional ne’ebé maka relevante mós inklui mós iha promosaun (haklaken) no edukasaun ba feto hirakne’ebé 

isin rua no famila sira, liliu haklaken fó susu bebe sira ba fulan nen dala uluk, hadiak estatus nutrisaun husi 

feto isin rua sira, no haboot serbisu kuidadu saude. Objektivu mós atu dezenvolve politika saudé nasional ba labarik 

ida ne’ebé inklui implementa aktividade nutrisaun hirak (Republica Democratica de Timor-Leste no Ekipa Nasaun 

Nasoens Unidas nian, tinan 2004). Sé estratejia no politika saudé hotu tau ba aksaun loloos iha konfuzaun uit’oan 

katak mortalidade bebe no labarik sei menu maka’as tebes. Maibé importansia ba mortalidade ba tinan foufoun 

wainhira determina esperansa moris husi tempu moris, tendensia mortalidade ne’ebé hato’o iha hipoteze 

intermediariu iha kredibilidade no realistiku. 

Nu’udár isplike ona iha leten, hipoteze boot ka ki’ik reprezenta valor maximu no minimu katak mortalidade iha 

posibilidade atu simu Timor-Leste. Hare’e ba katak mortalidade, liliu mortalidade bebe, sei para ka esperiensia 

redusaun uit’oan deit, hare’e fali ba politika no programa sosial no saudé governu nian sira. Hatutan liútan, 

mortalidade bebe no labarik esperiensia ona redusaun ida-ne’ebé klaru durante tinan hirak liúba. Nune’e, fiar katak 

esperansa moris nian husi tempu moris sei aumenta menus husi tinan 10 (sexu rua hotu, mane no feto) iha periodu 

ida-ne’ebé besik tinan 50. Iha hipoteze boot konklui katak esperansa moris sei aumenta to’o tinan 12 durante dekade 

lima ne’ebé tuir mai. Iha parte seluk, klaru katak kresimentu ida iha esperansa moris ne’ebé esperansa moris ne’ebé 

maka boot liu hirak-ne’ebé maka observa oras-ne’e iha nasaun hirak ho nivel dezenvolvimentu humanu ne’ebé boot 

la realistiku. Tuir hipoteze esperansa moris ki’ik, esperansa moris husi iha tempu moris sei aumenta to’o tinan 20 

durante periodu projeksaun. Dezenvolvimentu boot liútan ne’e hare’e ba sei akontese. 

22


Kona-ba estruktura tinan husi mortalidade, konklui katak dezenvolvimentu liútan akontese entre labarik sira 

kompara ba adultu sira, katak, numeru mortalidade tinan foufoun sei menus lalais liu kompara ba numeru 

mortalidade tomak.Ida-ne’e hetan hodi uza tabela moris limita sira, ne’ebé inklui iha RUP. Tabela moris hirak-ne’e, 

Departementu Sensus Estadus Unidus nian maka dezenvolve, kaer metin nivel no modelu husi mortalidade husi 

nasaun dezenvolvidu ho numeru mortalidade hirak-ne’ebé ki’ik liu (Arriaga and associates, 1994). Tabela hirak-ne’e 

tau iha futuru ne’ebé dok, sai husi periodu projeksaun. Iha kazu ida-ne’e, tau sira ba tinan 2100. Tabele hirak-ne’e la 

fó impaktu nivel mortalidade ne’ebé konklui iha hipoteze maib’e estruktura mortalidade nu’udar indika ona iha leten. 

Projeksaun ba fertilidade 

Iha nasaun hirak-ne’ebé nivel fertilidade maka’as/boot no iha evidensia husi redusaun tendensia fertilidae, projeksaun 

dala barak bazeia ba asunsaun ne’ebé tendensia ne’e sei kontinua iha futuru. Esperiensia istoriku maka katak 

wainhira fertilidade hahu menus, nia sei kontinua nune’e. Kestaun importante ne’ebé husu dalabarak liu iha kazu 

hanesan ne’e maka: Iha faze ida-ne’ebé maka fertilidade sei kontinua menu no sa’e to’o nivel ne’ebé? Problema sei 

difisil liu iha ne’ebé la iha evidensia husi redusaun. Kestaun importante iha-ne’e maka: Fertilidade sei hahu menus 

durante periodu projeksaun ka? No, sé karik kazu maka hanesan ne’e, wainhira maka fertilidade hahu menuz? Iha 

kazu ida-ne’e iha teoria lubuk ida ka regras imperiku hirak atu hato’o hipoteze kona-ba tendensia fertilidade hirak. 

Nu’udár temi ona iha leten, nivel fertilidade iha Timor-Leste hare’e ba hanesan ida-ne’ebé as liu iha iha mundu no la 

iha evidensia ba redusaun ida. Maibé, hare’e ba la realistiku atu konklui katak fertilidade sei la menu iha tempu 

badak nia laran, liliu katak iha nasaun hirak-ne’ebé la dezenvolve fertilidade esperiensia daudaun redusaun no barak 

maka tun maka’as tebe-tebes. 

Iha informasaun rua ne’ebé bele fó naroman ba isu/asuntu ne’e. 

Dala uluk, dadus/informasaun kona-ba preferensia fertilidade husi DHS tinan 2003 katak feto barak iha Timor-Leste 

maka hakarak atu hamenus sira nia fertilidade. Nu’udár izemplu, signifika husi numeru loloos husi oan entre feto 

hirak-ne’ebé hahu sira-nia vida reprodutiva (tinan 15 ba tinan 19) aka 4.8. Numeru ida-ne’e maka 5.8 entre feto hirak 

ne’ebé maka vida reprodutivu hotu daudaun (tinan 45 to’o 49). Estandar ba feto hotu nian tinan/idade reprodutiva 

maka oan nain 5.6. Entre feto hirak-ne’ebé iha ona oan 4 ne’ebé moris hela maka, 17.4 % lakohi tan ona oan. 

Numeru ida-ne’e aumenta to’o 37% entre hirak-ne’ebé iha oan nain hitu ne’ebé moris hela. 

Klaru feto sira iha Timor-Leste hato’o sira-nia hakarak maka’as atu iha oan barak. Maibé, preferensia fertilidade 

kompara ba fertilidade loloos, nivel ne’ebé hatudu iha preferensia ki’ik kompara ba ne’ebé maka koresponde ba 

numeru hirak-ne’ebé maka observa hela. Faktu ida-ne’e maka indikasaun maka’as husi redusaun fertilidade ida iha 

futuru. Hare’e ba katak buat-ne’e sei maka’as, pelemenus iha periodu inisiu, maibé nia sujere katak konklui numeru 

fertilidade konstanta ba futuru dala ruma la realistiku. 

Dala rua, Governu Timor-Leste rekoñese ona importansia husi hamenus numeru moris ne’ebé maka’as tebe-tebes 

(barak liu maka espasu entre tur ahi/hahoris) atu fasilita eradikasaun pobreza/halakon ki’ak, hamenus Timor-Leste 

nian nivel mortalidade maternal no bebe ne’ebé boot tebes, no hadiak saudé inan no labarik sira-nian. Nune’e, 

politika planu familiar dezenvolve no Konsellu Ministru aprova ona iha tinan 2002. Governu halo esforsu hela atu fó/ 

ofrese liúhusi sistema saude publiku nian, asistensia tekniku no finansial husi komunidade internasional, suplai 

regular no distribusaun maka’as ne’ebé maka efektivu variedade kontraseptivu sira atu garantu katak hatan duni ba 

opsaun no nesesidade kazal/kabe nain sira no individual iha Timor-Leste. Promosaun/haklaken planu familiar sei 

hala’o iha kontextu kona-ba protesaun saude no promosaun husi saude reprodutiva tomak. Sei husu katak promosaun 

hirak-nune’e sei neineik maibé desisivamente sei fó aten brani ba kabe nain no individual atu aksesu informasaun 

planu familiar, ‘counseling no serbisu sira (Ministry of Health, UNFPA, WHO, w/d). 

23


Foti isu/asuntu rua ne’e ba konsiderasaun, konklui katak fertilidade sei tun neineik entre feto sira iha Timor-Leste no 

sei to’o iha nivel ki’ik wainhira molok projeksaun atu hotu. Importante atu subliña katak hipoteze alternativa ida, 

hanesan determinasaun ba nivel fertilidade hirak ka maski krisimentu ida mós validu. Maski nune’e, diferensa maka 

katak hipoteze ba redusaun neineik ida suporte ho evidensia hirak-ne’ebé iha no la’os hipoteze alternativu. 

Operasionalmente, projeksaun fertilidade dala barak halo hodi tau loloos funsaun lojistiku ida. Funsaun lojistiku ne’e 

iha forma S kontrariu ida ho limitasaun aas ida ne’ebé koresponde ba nivel fertilidade boot uluk; tendensia redusaun 

ida ne’ebé reprezenta periodu ba redusaun fertilidade; no limitasaun ki’ik ne’ebé indika periodu wainhira fertilidade 

estabiliza fali ona iha nivel ki’ik hirak. Asunsaun katak fertilidade sei tun hafoin kurva lojistiku ida maka konsisten 

ho teoria demografia tranzisaun. Teoria ne’e sujere faze evolusaun tolu, husi fertilidade ne’ebé boot no ekuilibrium 

mortalidade boot nian ba fertilidade ki’ik, ekuilibrium mortalidade ki’ik, hetan disturbasaun husi faze ida hanaran 

tranzisaun. Periodu tranzisaun maka karakteriza ho redusaun fertilidade no mortalidade. Wainhira mortalidade tun 

sedu liu fertilidade, no iha velosidade ida-ne’ebé lalais, periodu ida-ne’e simboliza ho kresimentu populasaun ne’ebé 

lalais (PRB, 2000). Timor-Leste mosu iha faze inisiu husi periodu trazisaun, ho numeru mortalidade ida-ne’ebé 

neineik no numeru fertilidade ne’ebé boot. 

Ajustamentu husi funsaun lojistiku ida presiza valor hat: 

a) Limitasaun aas ne’ebé indika fertilidade ba tempu naruk pasadu nian. TFR ida husi oan nain 8.0 kada feto ida hili 

ona ba hipoteze tomak. 

b) Valor intermediu dala uluk ida, ne’ebé iha projeksaun ne’e maka TFR ne’ebé halo estimasaun husi sensus: oan 

nain 7.0 kada feto ida. Nia koresponde ba tinan 2003. 

c) Valor intermediu ba dala rua nian, ne’ebé tau ba tinan 2020 no diferente tuir hipoteze. 

d) Limitasaun badak/ki’ik ida, ne’ebé indika nivel fertilidade sei normalize iha futuru. Ida-ne’e mós diferente tuir 

hipoteze. 

Nune’e, hipoteze tolu kona-ba fertilidade maka: 

1. Hipoteze mediu assume katak ba tinan 2020, TFR sei koreponde ba numeru husi ona hirak-ne’ebé feto sira 

ho tinan 20-24 hakarak tuir DHS tinan 2003: oan nain 4.9 kada feto ida. Hipoteze asume limitasaun ki’ik ida 

husi oan nian 3.0 kada feto ida. 

2. Hipoteze aas asume katak ba tinan 2020 TFT sei koresponde ba mais ou menus numeru husi oan hirakne’ebé 

maka feto sira ho tinan 40-45 hakarak iha DHS tinan 2003: oan nain 6.1 kada feto ida. Hipoteze ne’e 

assume limitasaun ki’ik husi oan nain 3.5 kada feto ida. 

3. Hipoteze ki’ik asume katak ba tinan 2020, TFR sei koresponde ba oan hirak-ne’ebé maka feto hirak ho tinan 

20-24 hakarak menus husi ida iha DHS tinan 2003: Oan nain 3.9 kada feto ida. Hipoteze ne’e assume l 

imitasaun ki’ik ida husi oan nain 2.5 kada feto ida. 

Nota katak limitasaun aas hala’o funsaun ki’ik atu hatama lojistika tamba nia la tama iha periodu projeksaun. Nia 

valor bele uza liútan atu halo adjustamentu ki’ik balun. Limitasaun ki’ik balun sei relevante liu tamba nia indika nivel 

iha ne’ebé fertilidade sei normaliza iha futuru. Maibé, figura hirak-ne’ebé importante liu atu hatama kurva maka 

valor intermediu dala uluk no ba dala rua nian no distansia tempu entre sira rua. 

24


Tabela 5 no Figura 3 hatudu TFR koresponde ba hipoteze fertilidade ida-ida. 

7.00 

6.00 

5.00 

4.00 

3.00 

2.00 

Tabela 5 

Timor-Leste: Hipoteze kona-ba numeru fertilidade total, 2003 ba 2050 

Tinan Mediu Boot Ki’ik 

2003 7.00 7.00 7.00 

2005 6.81 6.91 6.73 

2010 6.24 6.67 5.85 

2015 5.58 6.40 4.82 

2020 4.90 6.10 3.90 

2025 4.30 5.79 3.26 

2030 3.84 5.48 2.88 

2035 3.52 5.18 2.69 

2040 3.32 4.90 2.59 

2045 3.19 4.65 2.54 

2050 3.11 4.43 2.52 

Figura 3: 

Timor-Leste: Projeksaun husi TFR, tinan 2003 ba tinan 2050 

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 


Dala barak, redusaun fertilidade, nia kompozisaun tinan nian mós hetan mudansa importante. Modelu frikuente maka 

feto hirak ho tinan 34 ba 49 hamenus sira-nia fertilidade liu fali hirak-ne’ebé maka aserta iha tinan/idade reprodutiva 

(20-34). Maibé, partikularmente difisil atu determina oin’sa fertilidade nia ajenda sei muda espesifikamente wainhira 

fertilidade tun wainhira loloos karik seidauk atu tun, nu’udár iha kazu Timor-Leste nian. Estratejia ne’ebé adekuada 

liu iha kazu ida-ne’e maka atu uza modelu ajenda fertilidade sira, ne’ebé funsiona hanesan hanesan loloos modelu 

tabela moris nian sira. 

25


Iha modelu importante tolu : Modelu Afrika, Arabika no Asia nian (CELADE, 1992). 

Modelu Asia nian hili iha ne’e tamba modelu ne’e foin lailais maka observa. Wainhira fertilidade hahu atu tun, 

ajenda tinan/idade nian gradualmente muda ba tinan ida-ne’ebé maka fertilidade konsentra ba iha tinan/idade 

reprodutiva hirak (tinan 20-34). Tabela 6 hatudu numeru fertilidade ba tinan/idade espesifiku Asia nian ne’ebé 

koresponde ho TFR ida-ne’ebé fó ona, no koresponde ba numeru absoluta. 

Tabela 6 

Timor-Leste: Projeita estruktra fertilidade ba nivel tuir modelu Asia nian. 


Hipoteze mediu 

Ba TFR=4.9 (2020) Ba TFR=3.11 (2050) 

Asia ASFR Asia ASFR 

15-19 0.05205 0.05101 0.02448 0.01523 

20-24 0.21290 0.20864 0.23411 0.14562 

25-29 0.26885 0.26347 0.33502 0.20838 

30-34 0.23585 0.23113 0.25566 0.15902 

35-39 0.15466 0.15157 0.12030 0.07483 

40-44 0.06612 0.06480 0.02920 0.01816 

45-49 0.00956 0.00937 0.00124 0.00077 

Kalkulasaun 1.00000 4.90 1.00000 3.11 

Hipoteze boot Hipoteze ki’ik 

Tinan Ba TFR=4.43 (2050) Ba TFR=3.90 (2020) Ba TFR=2.52 (2050) 

Asia ASFR Asia ASFR Asia ASFR 

15-19 0.04380 0.03881 0.03527 0.02751 0.02617 0.01319 

20-24 0.21061 0.18660 0.21407 0.16697 0.27615 0.13918 

25-29 0.27481 0.24348 0.29032 0.22645 0.36245 0.18267 

30-34 0.24181 0.21424 0.24795 0.19340 0.23163 0.11674 

35-39 0.15603 0.13824 0.14960 0.11669 0.08651 0.04360 

40-44 0.06429 0.05696 0.05617 0.04381 0.01663 0.00838 

45-49 0.00864 0.00766 0.00663 0.00517 0.00046 0.00023 

Kalkulasaun 1.00000 4.43 1.00000 3.90 1.00000 2.52 

26


Asume iha hipoteze mediu katak iha tinan 2020 kompozisaun fertilidade entre feto sira iha Timor-Leste sei 

koresponde ba Ajenda Asia nian ba nivel fertilidade ne’e. Durante prosesu projeksaun, ajenda fertilidade ne’ebé 

maka observa iha tina 2003 gradualmente hakbesik ba modelu Asia nian ne’ebé koresponde ba TFR husi oan nain 4.9 

ne’ebé asume ba tinan 2020 (ida-ne’e halo automatikamente tuir programa projeksaun RUP nian). Asume mós iha 

hipoteze ne’e katak to’o iha loron ikus husi periodu projeksaun iha tinan 2050, kompozisaun fertilidade sei hanesan 

ho ajenda Asia nian ba TFR ida husi 3.1, ne’ebé maka sai nu’udár numeru ne’ebé maka asume ba tinan-ne’e. Modelu 

tinan 2020 sei gradualente hakbesik ba modelu tinan 2050 durante prosesu projeksaun. Prosedura hanesan mós 

adopta ba hipoteze ki’ik no boot. Hetan ona ajenda fertilidade ba nivel ida-idak liúhusi pakote projeksaun demografia 

PRODEM ne’ebé CELADE maka dezenvolve (tinan 1992). 

Migrasaun Internasional 

Nu’udár indika ona iha leten, informasaun ne’ebé maka iha lato’o atu hato’o hipoteze analitikal ne’ebé iha 

kredibilidade kona-ba migrasaun internasional tamba buat rua, falta dadus/informasaun no Timor-Leste nia istoria 

foin lalais ne’e. Movimentu populasaun foin lalais ne’e nian akontese tamba instabilidade politika, social no 

ekonomia ne’ebé Timor-Leste foin hakat liu, no nune’e, la’os indikativu ba migrasaun internasional tuir kondisaun 

normal. Ida-ne’e limitasaun boot atu halo estimasaun migrasaun internasional. Maibé, naton atu asume katak buat 

ne’e sei dai komponente boot ida ba mudansa populasaun iha Timor-Leste. Ida-ne’e la’os atu dehan katak migrasaun 

sei la akontese iha dekade lima ne’ebé atu mai, maibé dala ruma nia nivel sei ki’ik no nune’e sei la iha impaktu ba 

sasukat no estruktura populasaun nian. Ida-ne’e hanesan asunsaun ida deit no la signifika katak iha migrasaun iha 

futuru ne’ebé atu mai ka imigrasaun sei la mosu; maibé la iha evidensia atu halo proposta ba hipoteze ida kona-ba 

volume no tendensia hus migrasaun internasional. Pratiku baibain in kazu ida-ne’e maka atu asume sei la boot. 

27


RESULTADU HIRAK 

Hafoin adjustamentu hotu ne’ebé maka dehan ona, no haktuir ba projeksaun nivel mortalidade no fertilidade no 

estruktura, populasaun nasional tuir tinan/idade sexu no sexu projeita ona tuir senariu tolu ne’e. Senariu ka variasaun 

hirak-ne’e bazeia ba hipoteze kona-ba komponente. 

Tabela 7 hatudu rezultadu baziku husi projeksaun tuir senariu tolu. Ba tinan 2010, populasaun total Timor-Leste nian 

sei liu tokon 1.1 uit’oan tuir senariu tolu. Iha tinan 2020, populasaun sei hamutuk tokon 1.5 tuir variasaun mediu no 

ki’ik no tokon 1.6 tuir variasaun boot. Populasaun hamutuk tokon 3 sei mosu iha tinan 2050 iha senariu mediu. 

Senariu boot sujere katak populasaun ida-ne’ebé liu: besik tokon 4 no senariu ki’ik sujere populasaun ne’ebé ki’ik; 

tokon 2 ho balun. 

Tabela 7 

Timor-Leste: Projeksaun population tuir senariu tolu no indikador demografia hirakne’ebé 

projeita. 

SENARIU MEDIU 

Numeru Numeru Esperansa moris Mortalidade bebe/infantil 

Numeru 

Tinan Populasaun Numeru 

kresimentu 

Moris moris 

baziku 

Mate mate 

baziku 

Sexu rua 

hotu 

Mane Fete 

Sexu rua 

hotu 

Mane Feto 

total 

fertilidade 

2004 952,002 41,534 43.6 10,317 10.8 58.8 58.0 59.7 92.6 94.9 90.2 6.9 

2005 983,369 3.24 42,332 43.1 10,813 11.0 59.2 58.3 60.1 90.3 92.8 87.8 6.8 

2006 1,015,187 3.18 42,923 42.3 10,806 10.6 59.5 58.6 60.5 88.0 90.6 85.3 6.7 

2007 1,047,632 3.15 43,564 41.6 10,791 10.3 59.9 58.9 60.9 85.8 88.4 82.9 6.6 

2008 1,080,742 3.11 44,247 40.9 10,801 10.0 60.2 59.2 61.3 83.5 86.3 80.6 6.5 

2009 1,114,534 3.08 44,965 40.3 10,828 9.7 60.6 59.5 61.7 81.4 84.3 78.4 6.4 

2010 1,149,028 3.05 45,719 39.8 10,868 9.5 60.9 59.8 62.1 79.3 82.3 76.1 6.2 

2011 1,184,193 3.02 46,375 39.2 10,898 9.2 61.3 60.1 62.5 77.1 80.1 73.9 6.1 

2012 1,219,992 2.98 47,052 38.6 10,932 9.0 61.7 60.5 62.9 74.9 77.9 71.6 6.0 

2013 1,256,441 2.94 47,750 38.0 10,972 8.7 62.0 60.8 63.3 72.7 75.8 69.5 5.8 

2014 1,293,556 2.91 48,470 37.5 11,019 8.5 62.4 61.1 63.7 70.7 73.8 67.4 5.7 

2015 1,331,354 2.88 49,215 37.0 11,069 8.3 62.7 61.4 64.1 68.7 71.8 65.4 5.6 

2016 1,369,829 2.85 49,923 36.4 11,117 8.1 63.1 61.7 64.5 66.6 69.9 63.3 5.4 

2017 1,408,952 2.82 50,614 35.9 11,172 7.9 63.4 62.0 64.9 64.7 68.0 61.2 5.3 

2018 1,448,691 2.78 51,271 35.4 11,235 7.8 63.8 62.3 65.3 62.8 66.1 59.3 5.2 

2019 1,488,968 2.74 51,819 34.8 11,300 7.6 64.1 62.6 65.7 60.9 64.3 57.4 5.0 

2020 1,529,817 2.71 52,560 34.4 11,381 7.4 64.5 62.9 66.1 59.1 62.6 55.5 4.9 

2021 1,571,373 2.68 53,395 34.0 11,463 7.3 64.8 63.2 66.5 57.3 60.8 53.6 4.8 

2022 1,613,653 2.66 54,180 33.6 11,553 7.2 65.2 63.5 66.9 55.5 59.0 51.8 4.7 

2023 1,656,545 2.62 54,789 33.1 11,633 7.0 65.5 63.8 67.3 53.8 57.3 50.0 4.5 

2024 1,699,747 2.58 54,940 32.3 11,692 6.9 65.9 64.1 67.7 52.1 55.7 48.3 4.4 

2025 1,743,239 2.53 55,487 31.8 11,752 6.7 66.2 64.4 68.1 50.4 54.1 46.6 4.3 

2026 1,787,349 2.50 56,312 31.5 11,825 6.6 66.6 64.7 68.5 48.8 52.4 45.0 4.2 

2027 1,832,170 2.48 57,067 31.2 11,912 6.5 66.9 65.0 68.9 47.2 50.8 43.5 4.1 

2028 1,877,594 2.45 57,700 30.7 12,007 6.4 67.2 65.3 69.3 45.7 49.2 42.0 4.0 

2029 1,923,430 2.41 58,085 30.2 12,105 6.3 67.6 65.6 69.6 44.2 47.7 40.5 3.9 

2030 1,969,587 2.37 58,547 29.7 12,212 6.2 67.9 65.9 70.0 42.8 46.2 39.1 3.8 

2031 2,016,259 2.34 59,323 29.4 12,316 6.1 68.3 66.2 70.4 41.3 44.7 37.6 3.8 

2032 2,063,564 2.32 60,032 29.1 12,428 6.0 68.6 66.5 70.8 39.8 43.3 36.2 3.7 

2033 2,111,443 2.29 60,693 28.7 12,540 5.9 69.0 66.8 71.2 38.4 41.9 34.8 3.6 

2034 2,159,886 2.27 61,379 28.4 12,647 5.9 69.3 67.1 71.6 37.1 40.5 33.5 3.6 

2035 2,208,792 2.24 61,832 28.0 12,753 5.8 69.6 67.4 72.0 35.8 39.2 32.2 3.5 

2036 2,258,214 2.21 62,606 27.7 12,842 5.7 70.0 67.7 72.4 34.4 37.7 31.0 3.5 

2037 2,308,291 2.19 63,332 27.4 12,941 5.6 70.4 68.1 72.8 33.1 36.3 29.7 3.4 

2038 2,358,994 2.17 64,062 27.2 13,047 5.5 70.7 68.4 73.2 31.9 35.0 28.6 3.4 

2039 2,410,389 2.16 64,937 26.9 13,162 5.5 71.1 68.7 73.6 30.6 33.7 27.4 3.4 

2040 2,462,381 2.13 65,495 26.6 13,287 5.4 71.4 69.0 74.0 29.5 32.4 26.4 3.3 

2041 2,514,913 2.11 66,273 26.4 13,418 5.3 71.8 69.3 74.4 28.4 31.3 25.3 3.3 

2042 2,568,077 2.09 67,031 26.1 13,557 5.3 72.1 69.6 74.8 27.3 30.1 24.3 3.3 

2043 2,621,867 2.07 67,804 25.9 13,699 5.2 72.5 69.9 75.2 26.2 29.0 23.3 3.2 

2044 2,676,336 2.06 68,674 25.7 13,840 5.2 72.8 70.2 75.6 25.2 28.0 22.4 3.2 

2045 2,731,417 2.04 69,317 25.4 13,989 5.1 73.2 70.5 76.0 24.3 26.9 21.5 3.2 

2046 2,787,087 2.02 70,150 25.2 14,138 5.1 73.5 70.8 76.4 23.3 25.9 20.6 3.2 

2047 2,843,435 2.00 70,981 25.0 14,295 5.0 73.9 71.1 76.8 22.4 24.9 19.8 3.2 

2048 2,900,455 1.99 71,814 24.8 14,459 5.0 74.2 71.4 77.2 21.5 24.0 19.0 3.1 

2049 2,958,150 1.97 72,662 24.6 14,628 4.9 74.6 71.7 77.6 20.7 23.1 18.2 3.1 

2050 3,016,469 1.95 73,418 24.3 14,814 4.9 74.9 72.0 78.0 19.9 22.2 17.5 3.1 

28 


Tabela 7 (kontinusaun) 


Numeru 

SENARIU BOOT 

Numeru Esperansa moris Mortalidade bebe/infantil Numeru 


kresimentu 

Moris moris 

baziku 

Mate mate 

baziku 

Sexu rua 

hotu 

Mane Feto 

Sexu rua 

hotu 

Mane Feto 

total 

fertilidade 

2004 952,002 41,818 43.9 10,409 10.9 58.7 57.9 59.5 93.7 95.9 91.4 6.9 

2005 983,666 3.27 42,915 43.6 10,996 11.2 58.9 58.1 59.8 92.0 94.2 89.6 6.9 

2006 1,016,047 3.24 43,915 43.2 11,072 10.9 59.2 58.3 60.1 90.2 92.6 87.6 6.9 

2007 1,049,389 3.23 44,990 42.9 11,148 10.6 59.5 58.6 60.5 88.4 91.0 85.7 6.8 

2008 1,083,752 3.22 46,132 42.6 11,247 10.4 59.7 58.8 60.8 86.7 89.4 83.8 6.8 

2009 1,119,177 3.22 47,336 42.3 11,369 10.2 60.0 59.0 61.1 85.0 87.9 81.9 6.7 

2010 1,155,711 3.21 48,605 42.1 11,503 10.0 60.3 59.2 61.4 83.3 86.4 80.1 6.7 

2011 1,193,386 3.21 49,892 41.8 11,644 9.8 60.6 59.4 61.7 81.6 84.9 78.3 6.6 

2012 1,232,231 3.20 51,237 41.6 11,794 9.6 60.8 59.7 62.1 80.0 83.3 76.4 6.6 

2013 1,272,298 3.20 52,645 41.4 11,953 9.4 61.1 59.9 62.4 78.3 81.8 74.6 6.5 

2014 1,313,646 3.20 54,123 41.2 12,120 9.2 61.4 60.1 62.7 76.7 80.4 72.9 6.5 

2015 1,356,340 3.20 55,678 41.1 12,292 9.1 61.6 60.3 63.0 75.1 78.9 71.2 6.4 

2016 1,400,415 3.20 57,229 40.9 12,464 8.9 61.9 60.5 63.3 73.5 77.4 69.4 6.3 

2017 1,445,885 3.20 58,818 40.7 12,644 8.7 62.2 60.8 63.7 71.9 76.0 67.7 6.3 

2018 1,492,771 3.19 60,432 40.5 12,834 8.6 62.4 61.0 64.0 70.4 74.6 66.0 6.2 

2019 1,541,059 3.18 62,006 40.2 13,027 8.5 62.7 61.2 64.3 68.9 73.2 64.4 6.2 

2020 1,590,861 3.18 63,866 40.2 13,242 8.3 63.0 61.4 64.6 67.4 71.8 62.8 6.1 

2021 1,642,336 3.18 65,796 40.1 13,470 8.2 63.2 61.6 64.9 65.9 70.4 61.3 6.0 

2022 1,695,521 3.19 67,747 40.0 13,704 8.1 63.5 61.8 65.2 64.5 69.0 59.8 6.0 

2023 1,750,360 3.18 69,565 39.7 13,930 8.0 63.7 62.1 65.5 63.1 67.6 58.3 5.9 

2024 1,806,556 3.16 70,884 39.2 14,127 7.8 64.0 62.3 65.8 61.7 66.3 56.9 5.9 

2025 1,864,181 3.14 72,820 39.1 14,326 7.7 64.3 62.5 66.1 60.4 65.0 55.5 5.8 

2026 1,923,546 3.14 74,763 38.9 14,528 7.6 64.5 62.7 66.4 58.9 63.6 54.0 5.7 

2027 1,984,648 3.13 76,706 38.7 14,736 7.4 64.8 63.0 66.8 57.5 62.3 52.5 5.7 

2028 2,047,455 3.12 78,595 38.4 14,952 7.3 65.1 63.2 67.1 56.2 61.0 51.1 5.6 

2029 2,111,846 3.10 80,311 38.0 15,172 7.2 65.3 63.4 67.4 54.8 59.8 49.7 5.5 

2030 2,177,812 3.08 82,195 37.7 15,402 7.1 65.6 63.6 67.7 53.5 58.5 48.3 5.5 

2031 2,245,443 3.06 84,100 37.5 15,632 7.0 65.9 63.8 68.0 52.2 57.3 46.9 5.4 

2032 2,314,750 3.04 86,010 37.2 15,864 6.9 66.2 64.1 68.4 50.9 56.0 45.6 5.4 

2033 2,385,747 3.02 87,942 36.9 16,094 6.8 66.4 64.3 68.7 49.7 54.8 44.3 5.3 

2034 2,458,482 3.00 89,940 36.6 16,319 6.6 66.7 64.5 69.0 48.4 53.6 43.0 5.2 

2035 2,532,937 2.98 91,830 36.3 16,542 6.5 66.9 64.7 69.3 47.2 52.4 41.8 5.2 

2036 2,609,099 2.96 93,790 36.0 16,754 6.4 67.2 64.9 69.6 46.0 51.2 40.5 5.1 

2037 2,687,018 2.94 95,772 35.6 16,970 6.3 67.5 65.2 70.0 44.8 50.1 39.3 5.1 

2038 2,766,733 2.92 97,822 35.4 17,196 6.2 67.8 65.4 70.3 43.7 48.9 38.1 5.0 

2039 2,848,362 2.91 100,063 35.1 17,431 6.1 68.0 65.6 70.6 42.5 47.8 37.0 5.0 

2040 2,931,864 2.89 102,050 34.8 17,679 6.0 68.3 65.8 70.9 41.4 46.7 35.9 4.9 

2041 3,017,170 2.87 104,173 34.5 17,930 5.9 68.6 66.0 71.2 40.4 45.6 34.9 4.9 

2042 3,104,363 2.85 106,333 34.3 18,190 5.9 68.8 66.3 71.5 39.3 44.5 33.8 4.8 

2043 3,193,500 2.83 108,582 34.0 18,452 5.8 69.1 66.5 71.8 38.3 43.5 32.9 4.8 

2044 3,284,725 2.82 111,037 33.8 18,716 5.7 69.3 66.7 72.1 37.3 42.4 31.9 4.7 

2045 3,378,002 2.80 113,222 33.5 18,989 5.6 69.6 66.9 72.4 36.3 41.4 31.0 4.7 

2046 3,473,279 2.78 115,563 33.3 19,242 5.5 69.9 67.1 72.7 35.3 40.4 30.0 4.6 

2047 3,570,653 2.77 117,933 33.0 19,506 5.5 70.1 67.4 73.1 34.4 39.4 29.0 4.6 

2048 3,670,157 2.75 120,363 32.8 19,781 5.4 70.4 67.6 73.4 33.4 38.4 28.1 4.5 

2049 3,771,876 2.73 122,919 32.6 20,062 5.3 70.7 67.8 73.7 32.5 37.5 27.2 4.5 

2050 3,875,783 2.72 125,324 32.3 20,366 5.3 70.9 68.0 74.0 31.6 36.5 26.4 4.4 

29 




Numeru 

SENARIU KI’IK 

Numeru Esperansa moris Mortalidade bebe/infantil 

Numeru 


kresimentu 

Moris moris 

baziku 

Mate mate 

baziku 

Sexu rua 

hotu 

Mane Feto 

Sexu rua 

hotu 

Mane Feto 

total 

fertilidade 

2004 952,002 41,285 43.4 10,223 10.7 59.0 58.2 59.8 91.4 93.4 89.4 6.8 

2005 983,125 3.22 41,819 42.5 10,635 10.8 59.4 58.6 60.3 88.6 90.6 86.6 6.7 

2006 1,014,439 3.14 41,984 41.4 10,540 10.4 59.9 59.0 60.8 85.7 87.9 83.5 6.6 

2007 1,046,030 3.07 42,172 40.3 10,434 10.0 60.3 59.4 61.3 82.9 85.2 80.5 6.4 

2008 1,077,911 3.00 42,375 39.3 10,351 9.6 60.8 59.8 61.8 80.2 82.6 77.7 6.2 

2009 1,110,071 2.94 42,582 38.4 10,284 9.3 61.2 60.1 62.3 77.5 80.0 74.9 6.0 

2010 1,142,502 2.88 42,794 37.5 10,232 9.0 61.6 60.5 62.8 75.0 77.6 72.3 5.9 

2011 1,175,089 2.81 42,783 36.4 10,171 8.7 62.1 60.9 63.3 72.4 75.0 69.6 5.6 

2012 1,207,714 2.74 42,751 35.4 10,114 8.4 62.5 61.3 63.8 69.8 72.6 67.0 5.4 

2013 1,240,347 2.67 42,691 34.4 10,062 8.1 62.9 61.7 64.3 67.4 70.2 64.5 5.2 

2014 1,272,955 2.60 42,600 33.5 10,015 7.9 63.4 62.0 64.7 65.1 67.8 62.1 5.0 

2015 1,305,498 2.52 42,471 32.5 9,971 7.6 63.8 62.4 65.2 62.8 65.6 59.8 4.8 

2016 1,338,023 2.46 42,467 31.7 9,915 7.4 64.2 62.8 65.7 60.3 63.1 57.4 4.6 

2017 1,370,561 2.40 42,399 30.9 9,875 7.2 64.7 63.2 66.2 58.0 60.7 55.1 4.5 

2018 1,403,032 2.34 42,262 30.1 9,844 7.0 65.1 63.6 66.7 55.7 58.4 52.9 4.3 

2019 1,435,343 2.28 42,023 29.3 9,820 6.8 65.5 64.0 67.1 53.6 56.2 50.8 4.1 

2020 1,467,465 2.21 41,852 28.5 9,810 6.7 66.0 64.4 67.6 51.5 54.1 48.8 3.9 

2021 1,499,716 2.17 42,276 28.2 9,818 6.6 66.4 64.8 68.1 49.4 52.0 46.7 3.8 

2022 1,532,340 2.15 42,637 27.8 9,845 6.4 66.8 65.2 68.6 47.4 49.9 44.7 3.6 

2023 1,565,213 2.12 42,827 27.4 9,871 6.3 67.3 65.6 69.1 45.4 48.0 42.7 3.5 

2024 1,598,046 2.08 42,592 26.7 9,882 6.2 67.7 65.9 69.5 43.6 46.1 40.9 3.4 

2025 1,630,791 2.03 42,676 26.2 9,895 6.1 68.1 66.3 70.0 41.8 44.3 39.1 3.3 

2026 1,663,863 2.01 43,272 26.0 9,910 6.0 68.6 66.7 70.5 39.9 42.3 37.3 3.2 

2027 1,697,465 2.00 43,784 25.8 9,942 5.9 69.0 67.1 71.0 38.1 40.4 35.6 3.1 

2028 1,731,474 1.98 44,161 25.5 9,984 5.8 69.4 67.5 71.5 36.4 38.6 34.0 3.0 

2029 1,765,694 1.96 44,293 25.1 10,030 5.7 69.9 67.9 71.9 34.7 36.9 32.5 3.0 

2030 1,800,002 1.92 44,440 24.7 10,086 5.6 70.3 68.3 72.4 33.2 35.3 31.0 2.9 

2031 1,834,592 1.90 44,975 24.5 10,149 5.5 70.7 68.7 72.9 31.6 33.7 29.5 2.8 

2032 1,869,601 1.89 45,413 24.3 10,223 5.5 71.2 69.1 73.4 30.2 32.2 28.1 2.8 

2033 1,904,941 1.87 45,785 24.0 10,295 5.4 71.6 69.5 73.9 28.8 30.7 26.8 2.8 

2034 1,940,600 1.86 46,194 23.8 10,365 5.3 72.0 69.8 74.3 27.5 29.3 25.5 2.7 

2035 1,976,448 1.83 46,300 23.4 10,434 5.3 72.4 70.2 74.8 26.2 28.0 24.3 2.7 

2036 2,012,425 1.80 46,581 23.2 10,494 5.2 72.9 70.6 75.3 24.9 26.6 23.1 2.7 

2037 2,048,583 1.78 46,791 22.8 10,563 5.2 73.3 71.0 75.8 23.7 25.4 22.0 2.7 

2038 2,084,867 1.76 46,976 22.5 10,637 5.1 73.7 71.4 76.2 22.6 24.2 20.9 2.6 

2039 2,121,310 1.73 47,263 22.3 10,717 5.1 74.2 71.7 76.7 21.5 23.0 19.9 2.6 

2040 2,157,806 1.71 47,253 21.9 10,807 5.0 74.6 72.1 77.2 20.5 21.9 19.0 2.6 

2041 2,194,268 1.68 47,369 21.6 10,890 5.0 75.0 72.5 77.7 19.4 20.8 18.1 2.6 

2042 2,230,755 1.65 47,477 21.3 10,981 4.9 75.5 72.9 78.2 18.5 19.7 17.2 2.6 

2043 2,267,264 1.62 47,595 21.0 11,074 4.9 75.9 73.3 78.6 17.5 18.7 16.4 2.6 

2044 2,303,827 1.60 47,773 20.7 11,168 4.9 76.3 73.7 79.1 16.6 17.7 15.6 2.6 

2045 2,340,401 1.58 47,811 20.4 11,269 4.8 76.8 74.1 79.6 15.8 16.7 14.8 2.5 

2046 2,376,963 1.55 47,967 20.2 11,386 4.8 77.2 74.5 80.1 15.0 15.9 14.1 2.5 

2047 2,413,577 1.53 48,155 20.0 11,508 4.8 77.6 74.9 80.6 14.3 15.1 13.5 2.5 

2048 2,450,270 1.51 48,376 19.7 11,636 4.8 78.1 75.2 81.0 13.6 14.3 12.8 2.5 

2049 2,487,073 1.49 48,631 19.6 11,766 4.7 78.5 75.6 81.5 12.9 13.6 12.2 2.5 

2050 2,523,984 1.47 48,869 19.4 11,910 4.7 

Tabela 7 mós hatutu numeru annual husi kresimentu populasaun durante periodu projeksaun. Tuir senariu mediu, 

kresimentu populasaun sei liu 3.% to’o loron ikus husi dekade oras-ne’e. Nia sei to’o 2.7% to’o inisiu tinan 2020 no 

sei iha 2.% rua nia okos to’o loron ikus husi periodu projeksaun. Nu’udár espera ona katak numeru ne’ebé maka 

projeita iha variasaun boo no ki’ik maka sei boot no ki’ik liu, respektivamente. 

30


Figura 4a, 4b no 4c hatudu evolusaun futuru husi numeru baziku moris no mate hirak tuir senariu tolu. Nota katak 

distansia entre kurva rua koresponde ba kresimentu populasaun. Hatutan liútan, Figura 5 hatudu evolusaun husi 

sasukat populasaun. 

Nivel 

Nivel 

50.0 

45.0 

40.0 

35.0 

30.0 

25.0 

20.0 

15.0 

10.0 

5.0 

0.0 

50.0 

45.0 

40.0 

35.0 

30.0 

25.0 

20.0 

15.0 

10.0 

5.0 

0.0 

Figura 4a: 

Timor-Leste, Numeru Baziku Moris nian (CBR) no Numeru Baziku Mate 

nian (CDR), tinan 2000 ba tinan 2050, senariu mediu 

2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2044 2049 

Tinan hirak 

CBR CDR 

Figura 4b: 

Timor-Leste, Numeru Moris Baziku (CBR) no Numeru Mate Baziku 

(CDR), 2000 ba 2050, senariu boot 

2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2044 2049 


CBR CDR 

31

Nivel 

Populasaun 

50.0 

45.0 

40.0 

35.0 

30.0 

25.0 

20.0 

15.0 

10.0 

5.0 

0.0 

3,800,000 

3,300,000 

2,800,000 

2,300,000 

1,800,000 

1,300,000 

800,000 


Figura 4c: 

Timor-Leste, Numeru Moris Baziku (CBR) no Numeru Mate Baziku 

(CDR), tinan 2000 ba 2050, senariu ki’ik 

2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2044 2049 


CBR CDR 

Figura 5: 

Timor-Leste nia populasaun ne’ebé projeita ona tuir senariu tolu, 

tinan 2000 ba 2050. 

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 

Mediu Boot YearsKi'ik 

Iha isu/asuntu importante rua ne’ebé presiza atu diskuti. Dala uluk, maski iha redusaun ba fertilidade iha senariu tolu, 

kresimentu populasaun iha Timor-Leste sei kontinua maka’as tebes durante dekade hirak tuir mai. Nota, nu’udár 

izemplu, katak numeru moris aumenta iha senariu tolu; maski iha ida-ne’ebé ki’ik, iha ne’ebé numeru fertilidade 

hirak asume sei tun substansialmente. Isu/asuntu ba dala rua nian maka defaktu, maski iha velosidade redusaun 

fertilidade oioin to’o tinan 2010 nia klaran. Diferensiasaun loloos hahu hafoin ida-ne’e. Nu’udár izemplu diferensa 

entre populasaun ne’ebé projeita ona ba tinan 2015 iha senariu ki’ik no boot maka hamutuk 50,842 ka 3.9%. 

32


Razaun loloos ba modelu uluk maka insidente hanaran momentum populasaun nian. Ida-ne’e maka tendensia husi 

populasaun ida atu kontinua atu aumenta maski sé fertilidade redusaun maka’as ida. Rezultadu fertilidade boot sira 

iha populasaun ida ho proporsaun boot ida iha tinan/idade ne’ebé foun sa’e tebes no moris hirak kontinua maka’as liu 

mate wainhira foin sa’e hirak-ne’e hakat liu sira-nia tinan/idade atu hetan oan. (Rowland, 2003; Weeks, 2002). 

Maioria demografer no hirak-ne’ebé maka hakerek lei/politika konsidera katak redusaun fertilidade maka’as no nivel 

fertilidade favorabel ba sosiedade tamba sasukat familia ne’ebé ki’ik sei hadiak famila nia moris diak no haneik 

kresimentu populasaun sei iha favor ba kresimentu ekonomia (Hobcraft, 2003; Birdsall, Kelly and Sinding, 2001; 

Mason, 2001). Nune’e, redusaun fertilidade konsidera ona, jeralmente, insidente pozitivu ida. Maibe tamba 

momentum populasaun, impaktu imidiata husi redusaun fertilidade ba kresimentu populasaun bele limita. Impaktu 

boot ida bele presiza dekade ida ka rua. Nu’udár izemplu, konsidera numeru fertilidade no populasaun ba tinan 2010 

tuir senariu boot no ki’ik (Table 7). Ida pasadu nian asume redusaun fertilidade ida-ne’ebé neineik: TFR ida husi oan 

nain 6.7 kada feto ida no populasaun suksesivu ida hamutuk ema nain 1,155,711. Redusaun ne’ebé maka loloos 

nu’udár redusaun rapida: TFR ida ba oan nain 5.9 kada feto ida no populasaun suksesivu ida husi ema nian 1,142,502 

ba tinan ida-ne’e mós. Maski iha diferensa iha TFT, diferensa iha numeru populasaun maka ema nain 13,209 deit, 

ne’ebé signifika katak variasaun populasaun boot maka 1.2% pursentu deit no boot liu variasaun populasaun boot. 

Hafoin tinan 2020 diferensa entre senariu tolu sei sai boot. Ida-ne’e klaru iha figura 5. Tuir senariu boot, populasaun 

iha tinan 2050 sei hamutuk ema nain 3,875,783, wainhira rezultadu husi senariu ki’ik maka ema nain 2,523, 984. 

Diferensa maka ema nian 1,351, 799; populasaun ba dala uluk nian maka 53.7% boot liu populasaun ba dala rua nian. 

Sasukat husi populasaun ne’ebé maka projeita ona ne’e bele halo diferensa intermus halo estimulasaun vs. limita 

dezenvolvimentu sosial no ekonomia iha nasaun. Numeru kresimentu populasaun iha senariu tolu ne’e hetan 

impaktu husi momentum populasaun husi periodu molo projeksaun maibé momentum ne’e hetan suporte maka’as 

husi numeru fertilidade boot husi variasaun boot ka substansialmente moderadu husi numeru fertilidade ki’ik husi 

variasaun ki’ik. Impaktu husi tendensia no nivel fertilidade husi dekade ne’ebé maka reprezenta sei sai mós hafoin 

tinan 20 ka 30. 

Demografia maka siensia mesak ne’ebé halo projeksaun ba periodu tinan 50 ka liután. Pratiku ida-ne’e la’os arogantu 

ka la hare’e hetan metodu limitasaun husi demografia. Razaun maka katak impaktu husi mudansa sira iha 

komponente, liliu fertilidade, akontese pelemenus hafoin dekade rua ka tolu. Programa planiamentu familiar idane’ebé 

efektivu ho objektivu ambisiozu ida ba tinan 2010 ka 2015 bele iha impaktu nivel ki’ik ida-ne’ebé lalais entre 

feto sira no moris diak husi familia nian. Maibé, nia impaktu ba kresimentu populasauniha nivel nasional sei presiza 

dekade rua, liliu, wainhira feto sira moris iha tempu wainhira planiamentu familiar hahu, hahu sira-nia movis 

reprodutivu. Ida-ne’e dala ruma sei presiza liútan tempu sé redusaun fertilidade hetan interupsaun husi momentum 

populasaun ida-ne’ebé boot. 

Importante mós hanesan numeru no kresimentu maka mudansa iha estruktura populasaun nian. Ida-ne’e 

simplesmente distribusaun husi populasaun tuir tinan no sexu. Dadus/informasaun ida-ne’e importante tebes ba 

deskrisaun no analiza husi tipu seluk husi dadus/informasaun demografia, maibé prinsipalmente tamba izizensia 

sosial no ekonomia iha rai laran signifikamente hetan impaktu husi numeru relativu iha tinan/idade ida-idak. Tipu 

husi planu barak, liliu planu husi institusaun komunidade no serbisu hirak presiza dadus kona-ba kompozisaun tinan 

no sexu. Tinan maka variabel importante ida kuandu sukat populasaun potensial eskola, populasaun vota potensial, 

forsa ba serbisu/traballu potensial, no selu-seluk tan. (Shryock no Swanson, 2004). 

Dalan momos atu hatudu estruktura populasaun ida maka husi piramida populasaun ida. Figura 6a ba 6j hatudu 

piramida populasaun hirak-ne’ebé rezulta husi senariu mediu ba tinan lima da-idak entre tinan 2005 no 2050. Sira 

reprezenta numeru absoluta hirak. Piramida deskobre loloos expansaun husi populasaun hodi hare’e katak areia 

piramida reprezenta numeru total. Nota katak durante periodu projeksaun piramida hirak mantein sira nia forma 

trianglu; sira aumenta substansialmente maibé sira-nia perfil hanesan nafatin. Razaun maka, dala uluk, nivel boot 

husi fertilidade iha inisiu husi periodu projeksaun no ba dala rua nian, asume katak redusaun numeru fertilidade 

komparativamente neineik. Redusaun ne’ebé lailais liu no maka’as sei rezultu fali ba tendensia ida ba kuadradu ida 

husi piramida, katak, sira sei muda ona husi forma trianglu ba kuadradu ida. 

33

80+ 

70-74 

60-64 

50-54 

40-44 

30-34 

20-24 

10-14 

0- 4 

80+ 

70-74 

60-64 

50-54 

40-44 

30-34 

20-24 

10-14 

0- 4 


Figura 6a: 

Timor Leste, Piramida populasaun, tinan 2005 (senariu mediu) 

Mane Feto 

200000 150000 100000 50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 

Figura 6b: 


Mane Feto 

200000 150000 100000 50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 

34

80+ 

70-74 

60-64 

50-54 

40-44 

30-34 

20-24 

10-14 

0- 4 

80+ 

70-74 

60-64 

50-54 

40-44 

30-34 

20-24 

10-14 

0- 4 


Figura 6c: 


Mane Feto 

200000 150000 100000 50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 

Figura 6d: 


Mane Feto 

200000 150000 100000 50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 

35

80+ 

70-74 

60-64 

50-54 

40-44 

30-34 

20-24 

10-14 

0- 4 

80+ 

70-74 

60-64 

50-54 

40-44 

30-34 

20-24 

10-14 

0- 4 


Figura 6e: 


Mane Feto 

200000 150000 100000 50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 

Figura 6f: 


Mane Feto 

200000 150000 100000 50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 

36

80+ 

70-74 

60-64 

50-54 

40-44 

30-34 

20-24 

10-14 

0- 4 

80+ 

70-74 

60-64 

50-54 

40-44 

30-34 

20-24 

10-14 

0- 4 


Figura 6g: 


Mane Feto 

200000 150000 100000 50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 

Figura 6h: 


Mane Feto 

200000 150000 100000 50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 

37

80+ 

70-74 

60-64 

50-54 

40-44 

30-34 

20-24 

10-14 

0- 4 

80+ 

70-74 

60-64 

50-54 

40-44 

30-34 

20-24 

10-14 

0- 4 


Figura 6i: 


Mane Feto 

200000 150000 100000 50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 

Figura 6j: 


Mane Feto 

200000 150000 100000 50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 

38


Figura 7a kompara piramida populasaun ba tinan 2050, korespode ba senariu mediu no boot, wainhira Figura 7b 

kompara senariu mediu ho senariu ki’ik. Piramida koresponde ba senariu boot iha baze ne’ebé boot liu kompara ba 

ida-ne’ebé maka rezultu husi senariu mediu. Razaun maka redusaun fertilidade ne’ebé neineik asume ona iha ida 

pasadu nian. 

Piramida ne’ebé koresponde ba senariu ki’ik iha baze ida-ne’ebé ki’ik kompara ba piramida senariu mediu no, 

hafoin, nia iha tendensia atu sai husi forma triangula adopta perfil ida ne’ebé kuadradu. Nu’udár sujere ona iha leten, 

mudansa forma ida-ne’e maka rezultadu husi redusaun fertilidade lalais nian ne’ebé asume iha senariu ki’ik. 

80+ 

75-79 

70-74 

65-69 

60-64 

55-59 

50-54 

45-49 

40-44 

35-39 

30-34 

25-29 

20-24 

15-19 

10-14 

5- 9 

0- 4 

80+ 

75-79 

70-74 

65-69 

60-64 

55-59 

50-54 

45-49 

40-44 

35-39 

30-34 

25-29 

20-24 

15-19 

10-14 

5- 9 

0- 4 

Figura 7a 

Timor-Leste: Piramida populasaun, tinan 2050, senariu aas/boot 

(shaded) no senariu mediu (la hamahun) 

Mane hirak 

310000 210000 110000 10000 90000 190000 290000 

39 

Feto hirak 

Figura 7b 

Timor-Leste: Piramida populasaun hirak, tinan 2050, senariu ki’ik 

(hamahun) no senariu mediu (la hamahun) 

Mane sira 

Feto sira 

310000 210000 110000 10000 90000 190000 290000


Senariu demografia tolu reprezenta fertilidade tranzisaun ne’ebé la hanesan ne’ebé rezultu la’os deit sasukat 

populasaun ne’ebé diferente maibé diferente mós iha estruktura tinan nian. Husi pontu devista ekonomia nian, 

estruktura koresponde ba senariu ki’ik dala ruma favorabel ba kresimentu sosiu-ekonomia no redusaun pobreza. 

Importante atu klarifika katak reklama ne’ebé maka halo iha ne’e la’os ida-ne’e katak prosesu demografia la la’o 

mesak wanhira produz dezenvolvimentu, kresimentu ekonomia no redusaun pobreza. La’os mós redusaun fertilidade 

no redusaun ida iha velosidade kresimentu populasaun ne’ebé lori direitamente ka indireitamente ba populasau nia 

moris diak. Peskijador ne’ebé maka estuda ona isu/asuntu ne’ebé kuaze universalmente hakerek nu’udár prosesu 

komplexu no faze oioin ida (hare’e nu’udár izemplu, Williamson, 2001). Prosesu ne’e hari’i tutan fali iha nasaun ida 

nia ekonomia no estruktura sosial, no dala barak kontrola iha tempu tomak tuir nasaun nia politika sosiu-ekonomia 

pasadu no presente. Maibé proporsaun importante husi dezenvolvimentu sosiu-ekonomia no rezultadu husi redusaun 

pobreza/ki’ak husi pozisaun nasaun ida-nia populasaun no velosidade liúhusi tranzisaun demografia. 

Xavi ida atu komprende relasaun ida-ne’e maka konseitu husi demografia bonus/exta ka demografia 

dividente.Wainhira fertilidade tun, proporsaun boot ida husi populasaun muda tama ba no liúhusi tinan/idade serbisu 

nian wainhira proporsaun husi labarik sira esperiensia redusaun kontanta ida. Janela oportunidade ida atu aumenta 

osan no investementu ba kresimentu ekonomia nu’udár rezultadu iha husi relativamente rekursu hira deit maka 

presiza ba investementu hirak iha edukasaun no saude. Hatutan liútan, presaun populasaun menus ba sistema 

edukasaun no saude bele fasilita dezenvolvimentu kualitativu no kuantitativu no, nune’e, akumulasaun importante 

ida husi kapital humanu (Leete and Schoch, 2003; Mason, 2003). Dezenvolvimentu hirak-ne’e sei estimula no 

manutein dezenvolvimentu ekonomia no, wainhira bonus hotu, maka wainhira numeru husi ema idade sira aumenta 

substansialmente, nasaun sei iha rekursu atu aguenta ho mudansa demografia foun ne’e. Konsidera katak 1/3 husi 

kresimentu ekonomia ne’ebé maka nasaun Asia Lorosa’e balun hetan durante 1/4 ikus husi kapitulu pasadu bele 

atribui ba utilizasaun adekuada ida husi demografia bonus (Williamson no Higgins, 1997) 4 . 

Ida-ne’e mós importante atu nota katak piramida nia tutun koresponde ba senariu tolu husi tinan 2050 kuaze hanesan. 

Portasaun husi populasaun (ho tinan 45 no liu) moris ona iha tinan 2004, wainhira projeksaun hahu no subjete ona ba 

deit numeru mortalidade dirente. Maksi asunsaun hirak-kona-ba nivel mortalidade diferente entre senariu tolu, 

rezultadu husi populasaun tolu hanesan deit. Ida-ne’e tamba iha impaktu ne’ebé limita ba sasukat husi populasaun 

adultu iha periodu ida-ne’ebé relativamente badak. Fertilidade maka determinante ida-ne’ebé maka determina liu 

numeru populasaun iha tempu badak nia laran. 

Tabela 8 hatudu grupu indikador hirak husu estruktura sexu no tinan husi populasaun futuru ba Timor -Leste. 

Indikador dala uluk ne’ebé aprezenta iha Tabela 8 maka persentajen sexu, ne’ebé nu’udár presentajen enre 

populasaun feto no manes hirak-ne’ebé hato’o nu’udár mane sira kada feto nain 100 ida. Variabel ida-ne’e la 

esperiensia mundansa subtansial durante periodu projeksaun, maibé iha tendensia ki’ik ida ba numeru ida husi 100 

ida, ne’ebé signifika katak ekuilibrium entre sexu sira. Razaun loloos ba tendensia ida ne’e maka variasaun ne’ebé 

asume tuir modelu sexu husi modelu husi mortalidade. 

4 Demografiac bonus, maibé, bele sai demografia tax ida. Benefisiu ekonomia husi bonus depende ba malu 

iha kondisaun ekonomia favorable ida, politika hirak-ne’ebé adekuada, no mós sosial no politika estabilidade. 

Espansaun rapida husi populasaun ho idade serbisu maka pozitivu só wainhira oportunidade aumenta ho velosidade 

naton atu aserta suplai forsa traballu, kresimentu iha produtividade manutein nafatin no edukasaun boot ba beibeik no 

iha mudansa hirak. Iha estabilizasaun ida ne’ebé falta kondisaun hirak-ne’e, situasaun ida hare’e ba atu mosu, 

karakteriza ho desempregu ne’ebé aumenta, kresimentu disturbasaun pobreza/ki’ak no politika no sosial (Leete and 

Schoch, 2003). 

40


Tabela 8 

Timor-Leste, indikador ne’ebé hili ona ba kopozisaun sexu no tinan tuir senariu tolu futuru 

nian, tinan 2004 ba 2020 no 2030, 2040 no 2050. 

SENARIU MEDIU 

INDIKADOR HIRAK BA KOMPOZISAUN IDADE-SEXU 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 

Rasiu sexu 103.3 103.3 103.2 103.2 103.2 103.2 103.1 103.1 103.1 103.1 103.1 103.0 103.0 103.0 103.0 102.9 102.9 

Tinan/idade klaran/mediu 17.4 17.3 17.2 17.2 17.3 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.5 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.5 

Persentajen husi tinan 15 mai kraik 45.0 45.1 45.1 45.0 45.0 44.9 44.8 44.8 44.7 44.5 44.3 43.9 43.5 43.0 42.6 42.6 42.2 

Persentajen husi populasaun hirak-ne’eb’e iha idade serbisu 51.7 51.6 51.6 51.6 51.6 51.7 51.8 52.0 52.2 52.4 52.6 52.9 53.3 53.7 54.0 53.9 54.3 

Persentajen husi ema katuas/ferik sira 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 

Persentajen husi feto hirak iha idade reproductiva 44.6 44.5 44.5 44.6 44.6 44.6 44.6 44.6 44.5 44.6 44.8 45.1 45.5 46.0 46.3 46.3 46.6 

Rasiu dependensia total 93.6 93.8 93.9 93.9 93.7 93.4 92.9 92.3 91.7 90.9 90.0 88.9 87.6 86.3 85.3 85.4 84.1 

Rasiu dependensia labarik nian 87.1 87.4 87.4 87.4 87.2 86.9 86.5 86.1 85.6 85.0 84.1 83.0 81.6 80.1 79.0 79.0 77.7 

Rasiu tinan dependensia 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.4 

Indexu idade nian 12.3 11.9 11.6 11.3 11.1 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.8 

Rasiu suporte inan no aman nian 8.7 7.8 7.0 6.4 6.0 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.2 

INDIKADOR HIRAK BA KOMPOZISAUN IDADE-SEXU 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2040 2050 

Rasiu sexu 102.9 102.9 102.8 102.8 102.8 102.7 102.7 102.7 102.7 102.6 102.3 102.0 

Tinan/idade klaran/mediu 18.7 18.9 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.4 22.5 24.6 

Persentajen husi tinan 15 mai kraik 41.8 41.4 41.0 40.7 40.3 39.9 39.5 39.1 38.8 38.4 35.0 32.4 

Persentajen husi populasaun hirak-ne’eb’e iha idade serbisu 54.7 55.1 55.4 55.8 56.1 56.4 56.7 57.0 57.3 57.6 60.4 62.4 

Persentajen husi ema katuas/ferik sira 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.6 5.1 

Persentajen husi feto hirak iha idade reproductiva 46.9 47.1 47.4 47.7 48.1 48.5 48.9 49.3 49.6 50.0 51.8 51.7 

Rasiu dependensia total 82.8 81.6 80.4 79.3 78.3 77.3 76.4 75.5 74.6 73.6 65.6 60.2 

Rasiu dependensia labarik nian 76.4 75.2 74.0 72.9 71.8 70.7 69.7 68.7 67.7 66.6 57.9 52.0 

Rasiu tinan dependensia 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.6 8.2 

Indexu idade nian 13.1 13.8 13.5 14.1 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.4 15.8 18.5 23.9 

Rasiu suporte inan no aman nian 5.4 5.8 5.7 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.6 8.8 10.0 

SENARIU BOOT 


Rasiu sexu 103.3 103.3 103.2 103.2 103.2 103.2 103.2 103.2 103.1 103.1 103.1 103.1 103.0 103.0 103.0 103.0 102.9 












Rasiu sexu 102.9 102.9 102.9 102.8 102.8 102.8 102.8 102.8 102.7 102.7 102.4 102.1 











41 




SENARIU KI'IK 


Rasiu sexu 103.3 103.3 103.2 103.2 103.2 103.2 103.2 103.1 103.1 103.1 103.1 103.0 103.0 103.0 102.9 102.9 102.9 












Rasiu sexu 102.8 102.8 102.8 102.7 102.7 102.7 102.7 102.6 102.6 102.6 102.3 102.0 











Rasiu sexu = Numeru husi manes sira kada feto nain 100 ida. 

Tinan klaran/Mediu = Tinan/idade e’ebé aka fahe populasaun ida ba grupu numeru ne’ebé hanesan; katak populasaun sorin joven 

liu kompara ba ida-ne’e no sorin katuas/ferik. 

Persentajen iha tinan 15 ba kraik – maka indikador ne’ebé simples liu iha estruktura husi populasaun ida; populasaun joven hirak 

dala barak iha 40% husi sira-nia populasaun ho tinan 15 mai kraik. 

Persentajen husi tinan/idade serbisu = maka numeru ema hirak iha tinan/idade reprodutiva ka tinan/idade serbisu nian (tinan 15 – 

64) kada populaaun 100 ida. 

Persentajen husi ema idade hirak = Numeru husi ema hirak ne’ebé iha ona idade pensionista nian (tinan 64) kada populasaun 100 

ida. 

Persentajen feto sira iha tinan/idade reprodutiva = maka numeru feto hirak ho tinan 15 ba 49 kada feto nain 100 husi populasaun. 

Rasiu dependensia total = maka rasiu husi ema hirak-ne’ebé iha tinan/idade dependensia (jeralmente tinan 15 ba kraik no liu tinan 

64) ba hirak-ne’ebé maka ekonomikamente iha tinan produtiva (tinan 15-64) iha populasaun ida. 

Rasiu dependensia labarik nian = rasiu husi ema hirak-ne’ebé iha tinan/idade dependensia ki’ik liu (lato’o tinan 15) ba hirakne’ebé 

ekonomikamente produtiva ((15-64 years) iha populasaunn ida. 

Rasiu tinan/idade dependensia nian = maka rasiu husi ema hirak-ne’ebé iha ona iha tinan boot ba tinan/idade dependensia (liu 

tinan 65) ba hirak-ne’ebé ekonomikamente iha idade produtiva (15-64 years) iha populasaun ida. 

Indexu idade nian = Numeru husi ema hirak ne’ebé ho tinan 60 kada ema 100 ho tinan 15 mai karaik. 

Rasiu suporte inan-aman nian = numeru husi ema hirak ne’ebé ho tinan 85 ka liu kada ema nian atus ida ho tinan 50 to’o 64. 

Indikador tuir mai maka tinan klaran, ne’ebé maka nu’udár idade iha ne’ebé populasaun sorin maka joven liu no 

sorin maka idade liu. Oras-ne’e daudaun maka tinan 17.4, ne’ebé indika populasaun ne’ebé joven tebes. Nia 

aumenta durante periodu projeksaun no to’on tinan 2050 nia sei to’o tinan 24.6 iha senariu mediu, ne’ebé sei sujere 

populasaun ne’ebé la joven ona, maibé relativamente populasaun ne’ebé joven hela. Tendensia ne’e konfirma tuir 

indikador ne’ebé tuir mai: persentajen husi populasaun ho tinan 15 mai kraik. Iha inisiu periodu projeksaun maka 

45.0% no, tuir senariu mediu, to’o loron iku maka pontu 12.6% kuaze iha tinan 50. So senariu ki’ik indika 

populasaun ida-ne’ebé la joven tebes ona to’o loron ikus husi periodu projeksaun. Tinan/idade mediu/klaran maka 

tinan 28.5 no persentajen husi populasaun ne’ebé seidauk to’o tinan 15 maka 27.6%. 

42


Tuir senariu mediu, populasaun ho idade/tinan serbisu nian aumenta, maski la boot: husi 51.7 % iha tinan 2004 to’o 

62.4 % iha tinan 2050. Kresimentu ida-ne’e, oin’sa mós bele fó nosaun ne’ebé sala ida ba dinamika demografia 

ne’ebé maka Timor-Leste esperiensia daudaun. Tabela 9 hatudu mudansa hirak iha valor absoluta no numeru 

kresimentu ne’ebé grupu idade boot tolu sei esperiensia durante periodu projeksaun. Populasaun iha tinan/idade 

serbisu bele esperiensia kresimentu absoluta ne’ebé bele konsidera, maski nia divisaun iha populasaun tomak sei la 

aumenta to’o nivel importante ida. Tuir senariu mediu, husi tinan 2005 to’o 2030, nia sasukat sei aumenta dala rua 

(double) husi tokon sorin ba liu tokon ida. Durante periodu projeksaun tomak populasau sei aumenta husi tokon sorin 

ida ba besik tokon rua. Valor hirak-ne’e koreponde ba kresimentu dramatiku ida iha numeru absoluta husi traballador 

potensial, katak, in termus suplai ba forsa traballador iha dekade hirak-ne’ebé atu tuir mai. Se la’e só kuandu iha 

investementu boot, bele haboot izizensia traballadore, desempregu no subu desempregu sei aumenta signifikamente. 

Se populasaun ida-ne’e la konsume ekonomikamente, demografia bonus sei sai demografia tax/impostu ka todan ida 

(hare’e catatan kaki 4). 

43


Tabela 9 

Timor-Leste, mudansa populasaun tuir grupu tinan/idade boot ba senariu futuru tolu, tinan 

2005 ba tinan 2050 

SENARIU MEDIU 


0-14 

Numeru hirak 

15-64 65+ Total 

2005 443,190 507,309 32,870 983,369 

2010 515,203 595,700 38,125 1,149,028 

2020 645,624 830,940 53,253 1,529,817 

2030 756,251 1,134,761 78,575 1,969,587 

2040 861,835 1,487,361 113,185 2,462,381 

2050 978,597 1,883,319 154,553 3,016,469 

Periodu hirak Numeru husi kresimentu 

2005-2010 3.01 3.21 2.97 3.11 

2010-2020 2.26 3.33 3.34 2.86 

2020-2030 1.58 3.12 3.89 2.53 

2030-2040 1.31 2.71 3.65 2.23 

2040-2050 1.27 2.36 3.12 2.03 

SENARIU AAS/BOOT SENARIU BADAK/KI’IK 


0-14 

Numeru hirak 

15-64 65+ Total 


0-14 

Numeru hirak 

15-64 65+ Total 

2005 443,525 507,289 32,852 983,666 2005 442,907 507,330 32,888 983,125 

2010 522,326 595,443 37,942 1,155,711 2010 508,211 595,973 38,318 1,142,502 

2020 709,164 829,455 52,242 1,590,861 2020 580,707 832,467 54,291 1,467,465 

2030 947,021 1,155,214 75,577 2,177,812 2030 605,152 1,113,113 81,737 1,800,002 

2040 1,225,404 1,600,166 106,294 2,931,864 2040 655,713 1,381,422 120,671 2,157,806 

2050 1,539,908 2,194,718 141,157 3,875,783 2050 697,149 1,657,983 168,852 2,523,984 



2005-2010 3.27 3.20 2.88 3.22 2005-2010 2.75 3.22 3.06 3.00 

2010-2020 3.06 3.31 3.20 3.20 2010-2020 1.33 3.34 3.48 2.50 

2020-2030 2.89 3.31 3.69 3.14 2020-2030 0.41 2.91 4.09 2.04 

2030-2040 2.58 3.26 3.41 2.97 2030-2040 0.80 2.16 3.90 1.81 

2040-2050 2.28 3.16 2.84 2.79 2040-2050 0.61 1.82 3.36 1.57 

44


Loloos karik, kresimentu populasaun hanesan eskala ne’ebé maka projeita iha senariu mediu, la temi kresimentu 

ne’ebé maka hare’e ona iha senariu boot, hare’e ekonomikamente sei konsume hotu maski nasaun esperiensia 

expansaun ekonomia ida-ne’ebé boot. Eskritor politika no planu sira tenki tau ba iha konsiderasaun isu/asuntu idane’e 

atu halo planu estratejia ida atu responde ba problema ne’e, ne’ebé bele iha konsekuensia sosial no politika 

hirak-ne’ebé seriu. Maski nune’e nota katak to’o tinan 2020-2030, velosidade husi kresimentu husi populasaun ho 

tinan/idade serbisu sei hahu redusaun neineik ida. Aserta tempu ida-ne’e wainhira asume redusaun fertilidade tinan 

lima ora-ne’e no tuir mai sei hahu atu hamenus velosidade kresimentu husi populasaun ho tinan/idade serbisu. Maibé, 

kresimentu iha suplai traballador sei boot nafatin. Ida importante atu marka katak asuntu ida-ne’e labele trata nu’udár 

parte husi dinamika populasaun nasaun nian maibé prinsipalmente nu’udár problema ekonomia, sosial no politika. Só 

redusaun fertilidade subtansial ida-ne’ebé sei involve tranzisaun demografia diferente ida, bele rezultu iha expansaun 

populasaun ho tinan/idade ida-ne’ebé ekonomikamente sei involve no permiti nasaun atu iha benefisiu husi bonus 

demografia ida hahu hafoin tinan 2020. 

Persentajen husi ema idade ona iha populasaun sei esperiensia kresimentu uit’oan: husi 3.4% iha tinan 2004 ba 5.1% 

iha tinan 2050 (Tabela 8). Maibé, nu’udár iha kazu populasaun ho tinan/idade serbisu nian, hirak-ne’ebé idade ona 

ka ferik/katuas sei esperiensia krisimentu absoluta boot ida. Nota katak to’o tinan 2040, populasaun ferik/katuas sira 

sei liu ema nain 100.000. Nia sasukat iha tinan 2005 maka só ema nain 32,870 (Tabela 9). 

Ida-ne’e mós importante atu konsidera populasaun feto iha tina/idade reprodutiva. Iha tabela 8, tuir senariu mediu, 

nia persentajen aumenta husi 44.6% ba 51.7% durante periodu projeksaun. Expansaun husi grupu feto ida-ne’e, no 

defaktu katak to’o tinan atus ida-ne’e nia klaran sei kompostu husi metade husi populasaun feto, signifika momentum 

ne’ebé forte no naruk ba population Timor-Leste nian 

Rasiu husi ida dependensia maka rasiu husi ema hirak-ne’ebé iha idade dependente (tinan 15 mai kraik no liu tinan 

64) ba hirak-ne’ebé maka iha idade produtiva ekonomikamente (tinan 15-64). Medidas demografia ida-ne’e dala 

barak uza nu’udár indikador husi todan ekonomia ne’ebé porsaun husi populasaun produtivu ida tenki lori. Klaru 

katak ida-ne’e hanesan indikador jeral husi dependensia ekonomia tamba ema barak ne’ebé maka defini nu’udár 

dependete maka produtor no barak ne’ebé maka iha ida/tinan produtivu ekonomikamente dependente. medida idane’e 

integra ona ba rasiu dependensia foin sa’e, ne’ebé konsidera deit dependente foin sa’e (minus liu tinan 15) no 

rasiu tinan/idade tuan, ne’ebé inklui deit dependente tinan tuan (liu tinan 65). Tuir Tabela 8, rasiu dependensia foin 

sa’e nian esperiensia redusaun importante ida durante periodu projeksaun, indika kresimente ne’ebé lalais husi 

populasaun ho tinan/idade serbisu kompara idade labarik nia. Nu’udár sujere husi indikador pasadu rua, populasaun 

sei joven nafatin maibé sei la joven hanesan oras-ne’e. Iha parte seluk, rasiu dependensia tinan tuan sei la esperiensia 

mudansa. Nu’udár hatudu iha kraik, ida-ne’e rezultu husi faktu katak kresimentu konstanta husi populasaun ferik/ 

katuas sira sei kompensa ho redusaun ida iha velosidade kresimentu husi populasaun ho tinan/idade serbisu nian. 

Rasiu dependensia total hatudu redusaun importante ida tamba sira depende deit ba variasaun husi numeru foin sa’e. 

Indikador seluk tan ba todan ne’ebé ema hirak-ne’ebé idade ona sei hetan iha decade tuir mai iha indeku idade nian, 

mós aprezenta iha Tabela8. Variable ida-ne’e koreponde ba numeru husi ema hirak-ne’ebé idade ona kada foin sa’e 

nain 100. Nia sei aumenta husi 12.3 ba katuas/ferik hamutuk 23.9 kada foin sa’e nain 100 ida husi tinan 2004 ba 

2030 no ba 15.8 iha tinan 2050. 

Loloos karik, indikador ba todan husi ferik no katuas sira iha populasaun tomak iha futuru sei la tau Timor-Leste 

nu’udár populasaun idade ida hanesan nasaun Europa sira, maibé importante atu realiza katak numeru husi katuas/ 

ferik sira sei aumenta maka’as tebes nu’udár sira-nia parte mós iha populasaun. Tendensia ne’e importante tebes no 

tenki konsidera iha kualker planu dezenvolvimentu. 

Indikador ikus iha Tabela 8, rasiu suporte inan/aman nian, maka proporsaun entre populasaun ho tinan 85 no liútan, 

maioria husi hirak-ne’ebé maka lakon ona sira-nia autonomia no fizikamente vulnerabel, no populasaun hirak ho 

tinan/idade 50 ba 64, ne’ebé koresponde aproximamente ba sira-nia oan hirak-ne’ebé adultu ona. Medida ida-ne’e fó 

indikasaun baziku ida husi populasaun ne’ebé iha atu kuidadu hirak-ne’ebé idade tebes ona (Rowland, tinan 2003). 

Ida-ne’e indikasaun estimativa ba numeru husi ferik/katuas sira husi sira-ne’ebé kuidade hamutuk nian 100 ida (la 

sala sira nia oan hirak-ne’ebé boot ona). Iha kazu Timor-Leste nian, numeru katuas/ferik sira kada kuidade nain 

hamutuk 100 hetan flaktuasaun nu’udár rezultadu husi modelu demografia pasadu no presente hirak. Husi tinan 2004 

ba 2017, persentajen tun husi 8.7 ba 4.8 kada kuidadu nain 100 ida, no hafoin aumenta fali to’o 10.0 iha loron ikus 

husi periodu projeksaun. 

45


Rezultadu kompletu husi projeksaun (tuir Senariu Rekomenda) maka aprezenta iha Apendixu (Table A). Ida pasadu 

kompostu husi populasaun tuir grupu sexu no tinan no tuir mai, populasaun tuir sexu no tinan/idade klik hirak, ba 

hotu tinan kalendariu individual hirak husi tinan 2000 ba tinan 2050. 

SUMARIU NO KONKLUZAUN HIRAK 

Rezultadu husi projeksaun hirak-ne’e bele halo sumariu iha observasaun hat: 

1. Hare’e ba populasaun husi Timor-Leste sei kontinua kresimentu ida-ne’ebé lalais no importante durante periodu 

projeksaun tomak (2004-2050) no espesialmente durante dekade oras-ne’e no tuir mai nian. Maibé, sé fertilidade tun, 

nu’udár asumi ona iha senariu hirak-ne’ebé maka hato’o ona, velosidade kresimentu populasaun sei tun neineik. Tuir 

senariu mediu, to’o iha loron ikus husi periodu projeksaun, populasaun sei iha 2% kada tinan. Tuir senariu ne’ebé 

hanesan mós, oras-ne’e, numeru anual husi kresimentu maka liu 3% no só iha inisiu husi dekade ne’ebé atu mai 

kresimentu sei to’o iha valor ida-ne’ebé iha persentajen ne’e nia okos. Maski iha redusaun iha velosidade kresimentu, 

populasaun sei esperiensia kresimentu absoluta ida. Husi estimasaun ida kala tokon 1 ba dekade oras-ne’e nia klaran, 

populasaun sei aumenta besik tokon 2 iha tinan 2030 no liu tokon 3 iha loron ikus husi periodu projeksaun. Nota 

katak iha senariu boot, iha ne’ebé fertilidade asume ba atu esperiensia redusaun modesta ida, populasaun sei to’o 

besik tokon 3 iha tinan 2040 no besik tokon 4 iha tinan 2050. 

2. Nu’udár temi ona iha leten, asume ona katak fertilidade sei tun no sei kontinua nafatin durante periodu projeksaun 

iha senariu tolu. Maski iha asunsaun ida-ne’e ba futuru, populasaun sei kontinua esperiensia kresimentu importante 

ida. Ida-ne’e los katak velosidade kresimentu populasaunsei tun durante dekade lima atu mai, maibé ida kala sei sei 

hetan redusaun ne’ebé maka’as liu iha senariu mediu no ki’ik, hodi konsidera katak redusaun iha fertilidade nu’udár 

konklui ona. Ko’alia liútan, maski fertilidade tun sei lalais liútan, kresimentu populasaun sei maka’as nafatin. Razaun 

loloos ba influensa limita ida-ne’e husi fertilidade ba kresimentu populasaun maka momentum populasaun ne’ebé 

populasaun Timor-Leste esperiensia daudaun. Numeru fertilidade ne’ebé maka’as iha pasadu no oras-ne’e fó 

potensialidade ba kresimentu populasaun ida-ne’ebé lalais no maka’as maski iha redusaun fertilidade. 

3. Analiza uluk husi relasaun entre fertilidade no kresimentu populasaun bele fó posibilidade aidea ne’ebé sala katak 

tendensia fertilidade la’os preokupasaun ida ba sasukat populasaun Timor-Leste nian iha futuru. Tendensia 

fertilidade hirak-ne’ebé diferente uza iha senariu tolu ne’ebé hato’o iha projeksaun-ne’e indika kakat, defaktu, 

durante dekade ne’ebé tuir mai no ida seluk tan, mundansa fertilidade bele iha impaktu ida-ne’ebé limita ba sasukat 

populasaun nian. Maibé, redusaun fertilidade ida-ne’ebé maka lalais liu, nu’udár izemplu, haforsa husi programa 

planiamentu familiar, sei bele nota iha tinan 2030 nia laran. 

4. Mudansa iha estruktura tinan/idade ne’ebé hakarak, nu’udár rezultadu husi redusaun fertilidade, sujere potensial ba 

bonus demografia ida, maka porsaun husi populasaun foin sa’e sei menus no porsaun husi populasaun ho tinan/idade 

serbisu nian sei aumenta. Rekursu importante, ne’ebé sei sé la’e muda fali ba gastu sosial, bele uza fali ba hadiak 

infrastruktura nasaun nian. Maski velosidade kresimentu populasaun joven sei menus, kresimentu ba populasaun ho 

tinan/idade serbisu nian sei aumenta dramatikamente, aplika presaun populasaun maka’as ba sistema ekonomia. Ho 

liafuan seluk, izizensia ba serbisu sei aumenta maka’as. Maski ekonomia nasaun nia sei aumenta partikularmente, no 

izizi ba forsa serbisu nian sei esperiensia kresimentu ida ne’ebé hanesan, numeru husi kresimentu ba populasaun ho 

tinan/idade serbisu nian hare’e ba sei liu kualker numeru husi kriasaun serbisu ne’ebé diak. Só redusaun fertilidade 

maka’as ida maka sei bele rezulta iha expansaun husi populasaun ho tinan/idade serbisu sei konsumi 

ekonomikamente no permiti nasaun atu iha benefisiu husi bonus demografia ida hahu hafoin tinan 2020. 

Pontu final sei hasoru isu/asuntu importante liu ne’ebé mosu husi projeksaun hirak-ne’e. Expansaun husi populasaun 

ho tinan/idade serbisu nian ne’ebé asumi ona iha projeksaun hirak-ne’e fó desafiu boot ida ba ekonomia Timor-Leste 

nian, ne’ebé hanaran kriasaun serbisu hirak iha nivel ne’ebé bele konsumi kresimentu kuantidade husi ema ne’ebé 

tama ba forsa serbisu nian. Kresimentu husi populasaun ho tinan/idade serbisu nian maka faktor ida ne’ebé labele atu 

modifika tamba ida-ne’e la’os rezultadu husi tempu oras-nee, maibé husi dinamika demografia pasadu nasaun nian. 

Grupu boot ne’ebé moris iha tinan 1990 nia laran no parte dala uluk husi dekade oras-ne’e nian sei sai adultu joven 

iha dekade rua maitan no nune’e sai parte husi forsa serbisu nian. Maski sé, nu’udár tuir loloos iha ne’e, fertilidade 

46


hahu tun, kresimentu husi populasaun ho idade serbisu nian sei kontinua maka’as tebes. Isu/asuntu importante liu iha 

kazu ida-ne’e maka atu buka dalan atu konsumi kresimentu ida hanesan ne’e. Ida-ne’e importante atu realize katak 

solusaun hirak ba problema ne’e maka ekonomia no politika, maibé iha mós komponente demografia, sosial no 

kultural. Funsaun husi demografia maka la’os deit atu fó dadus/informasaun ba ekonomista no planu nain sira maib’e 

atu kontribui ho nia instrumentu konseptu no metodolojika rasik ba disukusaun politika publiku nian kona-ba 

kriasaun serbisu, investimentu no distribusaun husi rekursu sira. 

Ikus mai, ida-ne’e mós iha valor atu temi katak exersizu projeksaun ne’e sei dook husi hotu. Iha liútan projeksaun 

hirak ne’ebé tenki hala’o. 

Dala uluk, sei importante tebes atu halo projeksaun ba populasaun tuir distritu sira. Konsiderasaun boot ida iha kazu 

ne’e maka heterojiniti ne’ebé maka’as iha Timor-Leste. Projeksaun ida iha nivel distritu presiza atu konfirma 

projeksaun nasional oras-ne’e nian, ne’ebé dala ruma la bele hetan diversidade husi Timor-Leste nian. 

Dala rua nian, sei importante tebes atu hala’o projeksaun lubuk ida nu’udár exersizu simulasaun ida. Projeksaun 

hirak-ne’e bele hala’o atu determina kombinasaun optimu husi asunsaun kredibel kona-ba komponente ne’ebé sei 

lori ba velosidade husi kresimentu populasaun ne’ebé favoravel kona-ba no estruktura tinan/idade atu hetan objektivu 

dezenvolvimentu ne’ebé iha ona. Hafoin estudu no analiza didiak hirak, bele harii ona nivel husi kresimentu no 

estruktura populasaun ida nu’udár favoravel ba dezenvolvimentu sosio-ekonomiku. Distribusaun populasuan jeral 

optimu bele harii ona sé simulasaun hala’o iha nivel distritu. Kombinasaun husi tendensia fertilidade, mortalidade no 

migrasaun oioin ne’ebé sei presiza atu hetan populasaun ida ho karakteristiku sira bele explora ona liúhusi prosedura 

simulasaun ne’e. Ida-ne’e exersizu ida-ne’ebé maka orienta ba politika ne’ebé sei importante atu planu politika 

populasaun iha Timor-Leste. 

47


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49


Tabela A 

Timor-Leste, projeksaun populasaun tuir sexu no tinan klik hirak, tinan 2000 

Ba tinan 2050 - senariu mediu/klaran. 

Tinan Sexu rua 

hotu 

Mane Feto 

2004 


Sexu rua 

hotu 

Mane Feto 

Total 952002 483689 468313 

0-4 171,563 87,811 83,752 40 - 44 45,901 22491 23410 

0 32,227 16,495 15,732 40 9,512 4,719 4,793 

1 35,906 18,383 17,523 41 9,579 4,705 4,874 

2 36,128 18,503 17,625 42 9,444 4,608 4,836 

3 34,723 17,772 16,951 43 9,004 4,383 4,621 

4 32,579 16,658 15,921 44 8,362 4,076 4,286 

5-9 138,039 70,661 67,378 45 - 49 34,285 16900 17385 

5 30,349 15,504 14,845 45 7,620 3,725 3,895 

6 28,450 14,531 13,919 46 6,979 3,422 3,557 

7 27,109 13,860 13,249 47 6,567 3,236 3,331 

8 26,314 13,485 12,829 48 6,488 3,214 3,274 

9 25,817 13,281 12,536 49 6,631 3,303 3,328 

10 - 14 118,529 61361 57168 50 - 54 32901 16635 16266 

10 25,201 13,028 12,173 50 6,896 3,455 3,441 

11 24,588 12,764 11,824 51 7,050 3,553 3,497 

12 23,864 12,402 11,462 52 6,929 3,507 3,422 

13 22,956 11,891 11,065 53 6,408 3,256 3,152 

14 21,920 11,276 10,644 54 5,618 2,864 2,754 

15 - 19 95181 47906 47275 55 - 59 19,186 9900 9286 

15 20,865 10,637 10,228 55 4,706 2,409 2,297 

16 19,877 10,045 9,832 56 3,929 2,022 1,907 

17 18,954 9,509 9,445 57 3,455 1,787 1,668 

18 18,123 9,054 9,069 58 3,415 1,772 1,643 

19 17,362 8,661 8,701 59 3,681 1,910 1,771 

20 - 24 75626 37603 38023 60 - 64 20495 10602 9893 

20 16,687 8,320 8,367 60 4,068 2,110 1,958 

21 16,014 7,976 8,038 61 4,338 2,249 2,089 

22 15,245 7,583 7,662 62 4,390 2,273 2,117 

23 14,329 7,113 7,216 63 4,107 2,121 1,986 

24 13,351 6,611 6,740 64 3,592 1,849 1,743 

25 - 29 57082 28338 28744 65 - 69 11736 5947 5789 

25 12,290 6,065 6,225 65 3,003 1,537 1,466 

26 11,376 5,601 5,775 66 2,511 1,275 1,236 

27 10,898 5,381 5,517 67 2,160 1,090 1,070 

28 11,005 5,483 5,522 68 2,023 1,017 1,006 

29 11,513 5,808 5,705 69 2,039 1,028 1,011 

30 - 34 62348 32195 30153 70 - 74 9676 4917 4759 

30 12,232 6,247 5,985 70 2,101 1,063 1,038 

31 12,805 6,602 6,203 71 2,116 1,074 1,042 

32 12,981 6,730 6,251 72 2,036 1,036 1,000 

33 12,575 6,528 6,047 73 1,846 940 906 

34 11,755 6,088 5,667 74 1,577 804 773 

35 - 39 48753 24870 23883 75 - 79 4391 2310 2081 

35 10,788 5,568 5,220 75 1,271 649 622 

36 9,979 5,132 4,847 76 983 505 478 

37 9,419 4,813 4,606 77 759 397 362 

38 9,240 4,680 4,560 78 656 355 301 

39 9,327 4,677 4,650 79 722 404 318 

80+ 6,310 3,242 3,068 

50 

(kontinua) 

APENDIXU

Tabela A (kontinusaun) 


51 


APENDIXU 

2005 


hotu 

Mane Feto Tinan 

Sexu rua 

hotu 

Mane 

Feto 

Total 983,369 499,573 483,796 

0-4 176,438 90,333 86,105 40 - 44 46,612 22958 23654 

0 39,445 20,164 19,281 40 9,281 4,653 4,628 

1 30,973 15,854 15,119 41 9,460 4,691 4,769 

2 35,501 18,193 17,308 42 9,525 4,676 4,849 

3 35,927 18,410 17,517 43 9,392 4,581 4,811 

4 34,592 17,712 16,880 44 8,954 4,357 4,597 

5-9 144496 73892 70604 45 - 49 35751 17526 18225 

5 32,495 16,618 15,877 45 8,307 4,046 4,261 

6 30,289 15,476 14,813 46 7,562 3,693 3,869 

7 28,394 14,504 13,890 47 6,926 3,392 3,534 

8 27,056 13,834 13,222 48 6,517 3,208 3,309 

9 26,262 13,460 12,802 49 6,439 3,187 3,252 

10 - 14 122,256 63282 58974 50 - 54 33549 16861 16688 

10 25,774 13,260 12,514 50 6,570 3,268 3,302 

11 25,169 13,012 12,157 51 6,819 3,410 3,409 

12 24,554 12,747 11,807 52 6,972 3,507 3,465 

13 23,833 12,387 11,446 53 6,851 3,462 3,389 

14 22,926 11,876 11,050 54 6,337 3,214 3,123 

15 - 19 99538 50415 49123 55 - 59 20,789 10655 10134 

15 21,882 11,256 10,626 55 5,540 2,818 2,722 

16 20,822 10,614 10,208 56 4,629 2,363 2,266 

17 19,835 10,022 9,813 57 3,863 1,983 1,880 

18 18,915 9,489 9,426 58 3,398 1,753 1,645 

19 18,084 9,034 9,050 59 3,359 1,738 1,621 

20 - 24 79410 39529 39881 60 - 64 20080 10370 9710 

20 17,318 8,637 8,681 60 3,604 1,865 1,739 

21 16,638 8,293 8,345 61 3,965 2,050 1,915 

22 15,968 7,951 8,017 62 4,230 2,186 2,044 

23 15,199 7,558 7,641 63 4,278 2,208 2,070 

24 14,287 7,090 7,197 64 4,003 2,061 1,942 

25 - 29 58734 29047 29687 65 - 69 12792 6491 6301 

25 13,310 6,590 6,720 65 3,477 1,783 1,694 

26 12,252 6,046 6,206 66 2,884 1,471 1,413 

27 11,340 5,583 5,757 67 2,413 1,221 1,192 

28 10,863 5,363 5,500 68 2,075 1,043 1,032 

29 10,969 5,465 5,504 69 1,943 973 970 

30 - 34 61885 31802 30083 70 - 74 9524 4810 4714 

30 11,474 5,788 5,686 70 1,935 972 963 

31 12,188 6,225 5,963 71 1,969 992 977 

32 12,758 6,578 6,180 72 1,983 1,002 981 

33 12,935 6,706 6,229 73 1,907 967 940 

34 12,530 6,505 6,025 74 1,730 877 853 

35 - 39 50961 26166 24795 75 - 79 4756 2446 2310 

35 11,708 6,063 5,645 75 1,450 736 714 

36 10,740 5,543 5,197 76 1,145 582 563 

37 9,936 5,110 4,826 77 886 453 433 

38 9,378 4,791 4,587 78 683 356 327 

39 9,199 4,659 4,540 79 592 319 273 

80+ 5,798 2,990 2,808

Tabela A (kontinuasaun) 


2006 


hotu 


Sexu rua 

hotu 

Mane 

Total 1,015,187 515,678 499,509 

0-4 179,743 92,019 87,724 40 - 44 46,606 23126 23480 

0 39,937 20,411 19,526 40 9,154 4,635 4,519 

1 38,070 19,461 18,609 41 9,229 4,625 4,604 

2 30,632 15,694 14,938 42 9,408 4,663 4,745 

3 35,309 18,104 17,205 43 9,474 4,649 4,825 

4 35,795 18,349 17,446 44 9,341 4,554 4,787 

5-9 152514 77995 74519 45 - 49 37988 18542 19446 

5 34,507 17,672 16,835 45 8,895 4,325 4,570 

6 32,433 16,588 15,845 46 8,245 4,012 4,233 

7 30,230 15,448 14,782 47 7,505 3,661 3,844 

8 28,340 14,478 13,862 48 6,874 3,363 3,511 

9 27,004 13,809 13,195 49 6,469 3,181 3,288 

10 - 14 125,422 64781 60641 50 - 54 33293 16626 16667 

10 26,220 13,439 12,781 50 6,379 3,153 3,226 

11 25,740 13,243 12,497 51 6,498 3,226 3,272 

12 25,136 12,996 12,140 52 6,744 3,367 3,377 

13 24,523 12,731 11,792 53 6,896 3,462 3,434 

14 23,803 12,372 11,431 54 6,776 3,418 3,358 

15 - 19 104172 53146 51026 55 - 59 23,395 11911 11484 

15 22,886 11,855 11,031 55 6,250 3,163 3,087 

16 21,838 11,232 10,606 56 5,449 2,764 2,685 

17 20,778 10,591 10,187 57 4,554 2,319 2,235 

18 19,794 10,000 9,794 58 3,799 1,945 1,854 

19 18,876 9,468 9,408 59 3,343 1,720 1,623 

20 - 24 82974 41346 41628 60 - 64 18966 9773 9193 

20 18,040 9,010 9,030 60 3,289 1,697 1,592 

21 17,267 8,609 8,658 61 3,515 1,813 1,702 

22 16,590 8,267 8,323 62 3,865 1,992 1,873 

23 15,922 7,926 7,996 63 4,125 2,125 2,000 

24 15,155 7,534 7,621 64 4,172 2,146 2,026 

25 - 29 61859 30573 31286 65 - 69 14300 7271 7029 

25 14,244 7,067 7,177 65 3,874 1,988 1,886 

26 13,268 6,569 6,699 66 3,342 1,707 1,635 

27 12,214 6,027 6,187 67 2,770 1,408 1,362 

28 11,304 5,565 5,739 68 2,319 1,169 1,150 

29 10,829 5,345 5,484 69 1,995 999 996 

30 - 34 60112 30654 29458 70 - 74 9153 4592 4561 

30 10,932 5,447 5,485 70 1,845 920 925 

31 11,434 5,768 5,666 71 1,815 908 907 

32 12,145 6,203 5,942 72 1,846 926 920 

33 12,712 6,554 6,158 73 1,859 935 924 

34 12,889 6,682 6,207 74 1,788 903 885 

35 - 39 54063 27892 26171 75 - 79 5347 2713 2634 

35 12,482 6,480 6,002 75 1,593 804 789 

36 11,657 6,036 5,621 76 1,308 661 647 

37 10,694 5,519 5,175 77 1,032 522 510 

38 9,892 5,087 4,805 78 799 407 392 

39 9,338 4,770 4,568 79 615 319 296 

80+ 5,280 2,718 2,562 

52 

Feto 


APENDIXU



2007 


hotu 

Male Feto Tinan 

Sexu rua 

hotu 

Mane Feto 

Total 1,047,632 532,099 515,533 

0-4 182,487 93,393 89,094 40 - 44 46,356 23209 23147 

0 40,583 20,740 19,843 40 9,293 4,746 4,547 

1 38,586 19,719 18,867 41 9,104 4,607 4,497 

2 37,664 19,269 18,395 42 9,179 4,598 4,581 

3 30,470 15,619 14,851 43 9,357 4,636 4,721 

4 35,184 18,046 17,138 44 9,423 4,622 4,801 

5-9 160985 82382 78603 45 - 49 40566 19752 20814 

5 35,709 18,309 17,400 45 9,281 4,521 4,760 

6 34,443 17,641 16,802 46 8,829 4,288 4,541 

7 32,373 16,559 15,814 47 8,184 3,979 4,205 

8 30,173 15,420 14,753 48 7,450 3,630 3,820 

9 28,287 14,453 13,834 49 6,822 3,334 3,488 

10 - 14 128,451 66132 62319 50 - 54 32640 16189 16451 

10 26,962 13,788 13,174 50 6,411 3,148 3,263 

11 26,187 13,423 12,764 51 6,310 3,113 3,197 

12 25,706 13,226 12,480 52 6,427 3,185 3,242 

13 25,104 12,980 12,124 53 6,670 3,324 3,346 

14 24,492 12,715 11,777 54 6,822 3,419 3,403 

15 - 19 108886 55935 52951 55 - 59 26,412 13364 13048 

15 23,764 12,351 11,413 55 6,684 3,364 3,320 

16 22,840 11,830 11,010 56 6,149 3,104 3,045 

17 21,792 11,207 10,585 57 5,361 2,712 2,649 

18 20,737 10,569 10,168 58 4,480 2,275 2,205 

19 19,753 9,978 9,775 59 3,738 1,909 1,829 

20 - 24 86457 43149 43308 60 - 64 17703 9094 8609 

20 18,831 9,443 9,388 60 3,274 1,679 1,595 

21 17,988 8,982 9,006 61 3,208 1,650 1,558 

22 17,218 8,582 8,636 62 3,429 1,763 1,666 

23 16,542 8,240 8,302 63 3,769 1,936 1,833 

24 15,878 7,902 7,976 64 4,023 2,066 1,957 

25 - 29 65982 32658 33324 65 - 69 15870 8078 7792 

25 15,109 7,510 7,599 65 4,040 2,071 1,969 

26 14,201 7,045 7,156 66 3,725 1,904 1,821 

27 13,227 6,548 6,679 67 3,212 1,635 1,577 

28 12,176 6,008 6,168 68 2,664 1,349 1,315 

29 11,269 5,547 5,722 69 2,229 1119 1110 

30 - 34 57852 29216 28636 70 - 74 8807 4392 4415 

30 10,793 5,327 5,466 70 1,895 945 950 

31 10,895 5,429 5,466 71 1,732 860 872 

32 11,395 5,748 5,647 72 1,703 848 855 

33 12,102 6,181 5,921 73 1,732 865 867 

34 12,667 6,531 6,136 74 1,745 874 871 

35 - 39 57374 29677 27697 75 - 79 5919 2979 2940 

35 12,839 6,655 6,184 75 1,647 828 819 

36 12,429 6,452 5,977 76 1,438 722 716 

37 11,608 6,010 5,598 77 1,181 594 587 

38 10,648 5,495 5,153 78 931 469 462 

39 9,850 5,065 4,785 79 722 366 356 

80+ 4,885 2,500 2,385 

53 


APENDIXU



54 


APENDIXU 

2008 


Sexu rua 

hotu 


Sexu rua 

hotu 

Mane Feto 

Total 1,080,742 548,855 531,887 

0-4 186,543 95,425 91,118 40 - 44 46,539 23519 23020 

0 41,269 21,089 20,180 40 9,804 5,040 4,764 

1 39,253 20,057 19,196 41 9,242 4,718 4,524 

2 38,186 19,530 18,656 42 9,055 4,580 4,475 

3 37,470 19,179 18,291 43 9,131 4,572 4,559 

4 30,365 15,570 14,795 44 9,307 4,609 4,698 

5-9 167561 85821 81740 45 - 49 42860 20870 21990 

5 35,103 18,008 17,095 45 9,363 4,589 4,774 

6 35,644 18,277 17,367 46 9,213 4,483 4,730 

7 34,381 17,611 16,770 47 8,765 4,253 4,512 

8 32,314 16,531 15,783 48 8,123 3,945 4,178 

9 30,119 15,394 14,725 49 7,396 3,600 3,796 

10 - 14 132,072 67783 64289 50 - 54 32301 15909 16392 

10 28,244 14,432 13,812 50 6,760 3,299 3,461 

11 26,928 13,771 13,157 51 6,343 3,109 3,234 

12 26,154 13,406 12,748 52 6,242 3,074 3,168 

13 25,674 13,210 12,464 53 6,358 3,145 3,213 

14 25,072 12,964 12,108 54 6,598 3,282 3,316 

15 - 19 113407 58552 54855 55 - 59 29,043 14608 14435 

15 24,453 12,694 11,759 55 6,731 3,366 3,365 

16 23,715 12,324 11,391 56 6,577 3,301 3,276 

17 22,795 11,805 10,990 57 6,051 3,046 3,005 

18 21,748 11,183 10,565 58 5,275 2,662 2,613 

19 20,696 10,546 10,150 59 4,409 2,233 2,176 

20 - 24 90087 45090 44997 60 - 64 17007 8698 8309 

20 19,706 9,953 9,753 60 3,663 1,865 1,798 

21 18,777 9,413 9,364 61 3,193 1,632 1,561 

22 17,938 8,954 8,984 62 3,130 1,605 1,525 

23 17,171 8,556 8,615 63 3,345 1,714 1,631 

24 16,495 8,214 8,281 64 3,676 1,882 1,794 

25 - 29 70379 34904 35475 65 - 69 17018 8662 8356 

25 15,832 7,878 7,954 65 3,898 1,995 1,903 

26 15,063 7,486 7,577 66 3,886 1,984 1,902 

27 14,158 7,023 7,135 67 3,582 1,824 1,758 

28 13,187 6,528 6,659 68 3,090 1,567 1,523 

29 12,139 5,989 6,150 69 2,562 1,292 1,270 

30 - 34 56262 28135 28127 70 - 74 8750 4348 4402 

30 11,233 5,529 5,704 70 2,119 1,060 1,059 

31 10,757 5,309 5,448 71 1,779 883 896 

32 10,857 5,410 5,447 72 1,627 804 823 

33 11,355 5,728 5,627 73 1,598 792 806 

34 12,060 6,159 5,901 74 1,627 809 818 

35 - 39 59944 31012 28932 75 - 79 6305 3152 3153 

35 12,619 6,506 6,113 75 1,609 802 807 

36 12,786 6,627 6,159 76 1,489 745 744 

37 12,377 6,424 5,953 77 1,298 649 649 

38 11,559 5,984 5,575 78 1,068 534 534 

39 10,603 5,471 5,132 79 841 422 419 

80+ 4,664 2,367 2,297



55 


APENDIXU 

2009 


hotu 


Sexu rua 

hotu 

Mane Feto 

Total 1,114,534 565,954 548,580 

0-4 196,148 100,303 95,845 40 - 44 47,588 24245 23343 

0 41,992 21,457 20,535 40 10,553 5,444 5,109 

1 39,958 20,414 19,544 41 9,752 5,011 4,741 

2 38,858 19,870 18,988 42 9,193 4,691 4,502 

3 37,995 19,441 18,554 43 9,007 4,553 4,454 

4 37,345 19,121 18,224 44 9,083 4,546 4,537 

5-9 167496 85847 81649 45 - 49 44456 21704 22752 

5 30,296 15,537 14,759 45 9,249 4,577 4,672 

6 35,042 17,979 17,063 46 9,295 4,551 4,744 

7 35,581 18,246 17,335 47 9,146 4,446 4,700 

8 34,320 17,582 16,738 48 8,702 4,218 4,484 

9 32,257 16,503 15,754 49 8,064 3,912 4,152 

10 - 14 136,943 70125 66818 50 - 54 32760 16033 16727 

10 30,074 15,372 14,702 50 7,330 3,563 3,767 

11 28,210 14,415 13,795 51 6,689 3,258 3,431 

12 26,895 13,754 13,141 52 6,275 3,070 3,205 

13 26,121 13,390 12,731 53 6,176 3,036 3,140 

14 25,643 13,194 12,449 54 6,290 3,106 3,184 

15 - 19 117560 60847 56713 55 - 59 30,756 15378 15378 

15 25,031 12,942 12,089 55 6,511 3,231 3,280 

16 24,406 12,668 11,738 56 6,625 3,304 3,321 

17 23,668 12,298 11,370 57 6,473 3,240 3,233 

18 22,749 11,779 10,970 58 5,955 2,990 2,965 

19 21,706 11,160 10,546 59 5,192 2,613 2,579 

20 - 24 94036 47282 46754 60 - 64 17331 8812 8519 

20 20,647 10,519 10,128 60 4,322 2,182 2,140 

21 19,652 9,923 9,729 61 3,574 1,814 1,760 

22 18,726 9,384 9,342 62 3,116 1,587 1,529 

23 17,888 8,926 8,962 63 3,055 1,562 1,493 

24 17,123 8,530 8,593 64 3,264 1,667 1,597 

25 - 29 74516 37015 37501 65 - 69 17470 8880 8590 

25 16,449 8,189 8,260 65 3,562 1,817 1,745 

26 15,785 7,854 7,931 66 3,750 1,912 1,838 

27 15,018 7,463 7,555 67 3,740 1,902 1,838 

28 14,115 7,001 7,114 68 3,446 1,748 1,698 

29 13,149 6,508 6,641 69 2,972 1,501 1,471 

30 - 34 56152 27870 28282 70 - 74 9130 4534 4596 

30 12,099 5,969 6,130 70 2,437 1,224 1,213 

31 11,195 5,510 5,685 71 1,992 992 1,000 

32 10,722 5,292 5,430 72 1,671 825 846 

33 10,820 5,391 5,429 73 1,529 752 777 

34 11,316 5,708 5,608 74 1,501 741 760 

35 - 39 61152 31568 29584 75 - 79 6444 3200 3244 

35 12,015 6,136 5,879 75 1,502 743 759 

36 12,567 6,478 6,089 76 1,455 722 733 

37 12,733 6,599 6,134 77 1,348 671 677 

38 12,325 6,396 5,929 78 1,173 583 590 

39 11,512 5,959 5,553 79 966 481 485 

80+ 4,596 2,311 2,285



56 


APENDIXU 

2010 


Sexu rua 

hotu 


Sexu rua 

hotu 

Mane Feto 

Total 1,149,028 583,405 565,623 

0-4 199,556 102,026 97,530 40 - 44 49,761 25516 24245 

0 42,749 21,842 20,907 40 11,458 5,929 5,529 

1 40,699 20,790 19,909 41 10,498 5,413 5,085 

2 39,568 20,229 19,339 42 9,701 4,983 4,718 

3 38,669 19,782 18,887 43 9,145 4,665 4,480 

4 37,871 19,383 18,488 44 8,959 4,526 4,433 

5-9 172,271 88314 83957 45 - 49 45,159 22161 22998 

5 37,263 19,082 18,181 45 9,027 4,515 4,512 

6 30,245 15,512 14,733 46 9,184 4,540 4,644 

7 34,982 17,950 17,032 47 9,227 4,513 4,714 

8 35,521 18,217 17,304 48 9,080 4,409 4,671 

9 34,260 17,553 16,707 49 8,641 4,184 4,457 

10 - 14 143,376 73343 70033 50 - 54 34,186 16640 17546 

10 32,210 16,480 15,730 50 7,993 3,872 4,121 

11 30,039 15,354 14,685 51 7,253 3,519 3,734 

12 28,175 14,397 13,778 52 6,619 3,218 3,401 

13 26,863 13,738 13,125 53 6,209 3,032 3,177 

14 26,089 13,374 12,715 54 6,112 2,999 3,113 

15 - 19 121,271 62,756 58,515 55 - 59 31,372 15,590 15,782 

15 25,602 13,172 12,430 55 6,207 3,058 3,149 

16 24,983 12,915 12,068 56 6,410 3,173 3,237 

17 24,359 12,642 11,717 57 6,521 3,243 3,278 

18 23,622 12,272 11,350 58 6,372 3,181 3,191 

19 22,705 11,755 10,950 59 5,862 2,935 2,927 

20 - 24 98,360 49,766 48,594 60 - 64 18,821 9,505 9,316 

20 21,655 11,131 10,524 60 5,090 2,554 2,536 

21 20,591 10,487 10,104 61 4,219 2,123 2,096 

22 19,600 9,894 9,706 62 3,489 1,765 1,724 

23 18,675 9,355 9,320 63 3,040 1,543 1,497 

24 17,839 8,899 8,940 64 2,983 1,520 1,463 

25 - 29 78,263 38,919 39,344 65 - 69 17,119 8,685 8,434 

25 17,075 8,504 8,571 65 3,164 1,610 1,554 

26 16,401 8,164 8,237 66 3,428 1,742 1,686 

27 15,739 7,831 7,908 67 3,609 1,833 1,776 

28 14,974 7,440 7,534 68 3,601 1,824 1,777 

29 14,074 6,980 7,094 69 3,317 1,676 1,641 

30 - 34 57,794 28574 29220 70 - 74 10,001 4972 5029 

30 13,108 6,487 6,621 70 2,829 1,423 1,406 

31 12,059 5,949 6,110 71 2,291 1,145 1,146 

32 11,157 5,491 5,666 72 1,872 928 944 

33 10,686 5,274 5,412 73 1,571 772 799 

34 10,784 5,373 5,411 74 1,438 704 734 

35 - 39 60,713 31188 29525 75 - 79 6,346 3130 3216 

35 11,274 5,686 5,588 75 1,386 681 705 

36 11,967 6,111 5,856 76 1,360 669 691 

37 12,516 6,451 6,065 77 1,317 650 667 

38 12,681 6,571 6,110 78 1,222 605 617 

39 12,275 6,369 5,906 79 1,061 525 536 

80+ 4,659 2,320 2,339



57 

APENDIXU 

2011 


Sexu rua 

hotu 


Sexu rua 

hotu 

Mane Feto 

Total 1,184,193 601,193 583,000 

0-4 203,196 103,871 99,325 40 - 44 52,809 27209 25600 

0 43,477 22,213 21,264 40 12,218 6,337 5,881 

1 41,479 21,186 20,293 41 11,398 5,896 5,502 

2 40,312 20,606 19,706 42 10,445 5,383 5,062 

3 39,381 20,141 19,240 43 9,651 4,955 4,696 

4 38,547 19,725 18,822 44 9,097 4,638 4,459 

5-9 175574 89995 85579 45 - 49 45163 22326 22837 

5 37,791 19,345 18,446 45 8,904 4,495 4,409 

6 37,202 19,053 18,149 46 8,963 4,479 4,484 

7 30,194 15,487 14,707 47 9,120 4,503 4,617 

8 34,925 17,922 17,003 48 9,161 4,476 4,685 

9 35,462 18,188 17,274 49 9,015 4,373 4,642 

10 - 14 151,358 77427 73931 50 - 54 36350 17617 18733 

10 34,211 17,529 16,682 50 8,567 4,142 4,425 

11 32,172 16,461 15,711 51 7,910 3,825 4,085 

12 30,003 15,336 14,667 52 7,178 3,476 3,702 

13 28,141 14,379 13,762 53 6,550 3,179 3,371 

14 26,831 13,722 13,109 54 6,145 2,995 3,150 

15 - 19 124427 64249 60178 55 - 59 31,149 15379 15770 

15 26,049 13,353 12,696 55 6,033 2,954 3,079 

16 25,554 13,145 12,409 56 6,111 3,002 3,109 

17 24,935 12,888 12,047 57 6,312 3,116 3,196 

18 24,312 12,616 11,696 58 6,420 3,184 3,236 

19 23,577 12,247 11,330 59 6,273 3,123 3,150 

20 - 24 102960 52470 50490 60 - 64 21213 10640 10573 

20 22,653 11,725 10,928 60 5,749 2,870 2,879 

21 21,598 11,098 10,500 61 4,969 2,485 2,484 

22 20,536 10,456 10,080 62 4,120 2,066 2,054 

23 19,548 9,864 9,684 63 3,406 1,717 1,689 

24 18,625 9,327 9,298 64 2,969 1,502 1,467 

25 - 29 81795 40716 41079 65 - 69 16183 8191 7992 

25 17,789 8,872 8,917 65 2,893 1,469 1,424 

26 17,027 8,479 8,548 66 3,046 1,544 1,502 

27 16,354 8,140 8,214 67 3,302 1,671 1,631 

28 15,694 7,807 7,887 68 3,475 1,758 1,717 

29 14,931 7,418 7,513 69 3,467 1,749 1,718 

30 - 34 60888 30082 30806 70 - 74 11214 5585 5629 

30 14,031 6,958 7,073 70 3,158 1,589 1,569 

31 13,064 6,465 6,599 71 2,661 1,332 1,329 

32 12,020 5,929 6,091 72 2,156 1,073 1,083 

33 11,121 5,473 5,648 73 1,761 868 893 

34 10,652 5,257 5,395 74 1,478 723 755 

35 - 39 58988 30069 28919 75 - 79 6120 2996 3124 

35 10,744 5,353 5,391 75 1,330 648 682 

36 11,228 5,662 5,566 76 1,256 614 642 

37 11,919 6,085 5,834 77 1,233 603 630 

38 12,467 6,425 6,042 78 1,194 586 608 

39 12,630 6,544 6,086 79 1,107 545 562 

80+ 4,806 2,371 2,435 




2012 


Sexu rua 

hotu 

Mane Feto Age 

sexu rua 

hotu 

Mane Feto 

Total 1,219,992 619,300 600,692 

0-4 206,888 105,744 101,144 40 - 44 56,062 28958 27104 

0 44,174 22,569 21,605 40 12,573 6,512 6,061 

1 42,229 21,567 20,662 41 12,156 6,302 5,854 

2 41,097 21,004 20,093 42 11,341 5,864 5,477 

3 40,127 20,519 19,608 43 10,390 5,352 5,038 

4 39,261 20,085 19,176 44 9,602 4,928 4,674 

5-9 178356 91386 86970 45 - 49 44937 22415 22522 

5 38,469 19,688 18,781 45 9,043 4,607 4,436 

6 37,730 19,315 18,415 46 8,840 4,458 4,382 

7 37,143 19,025 18,118 47 8,902 4,444 4,458 

8 30,145 15,463 14,682 48 9,055 4,466 4,589 

9 34,869 17,895 16,974 49 9,097 4,440 4,657 

10 - 14 159,794 81794 78000 50 - 54 38833 18775 20058 

10 35,413 18,163 17,250 50 8,938 4,330 4,608 

11 34,171 17,509 16,662 51 8,479 4,092 4,387 

12 32,133 16,441 15,692 52 7,829 3,778 4,051 

13 29,969 15,319 14,650 53 7,105 3,435 3,670 

14 28,108 14,362 13,746 54 6,482 3,140 3,342 

15 - 19 127,453 65,597 61,856 55 - 59 30,564 14,987 15,577 

15 26,790 13,700 13,090 55 6,068 2,951 3,117 

16 26,001 13,326 12,675 56 5,940 2,900 3,040 

17 25,506 13,118 12,388 57 6,019 2,949 3,070 

18 24,888 12,862 12,026 58 6,216 3,060 3,156 

19 24,268 12,591 11,677 59 6,321 3,127 3,194 

20 - 24 107638 55232 52406 60 - 64 23972 11949 12023 

20 23,523 12,216 11,307 60 6,152 3,053 3,099 

21 22,595 11,691 10,904 61 5,616 2,794 2,822 

22 21,540 11,065 10,475 62 4,853 2,419 2,434 

23 20,482 10,425 10,057 63 4,024 2,011 2,013 

24 19,498 9,835 9,663 64 3,327 1,672 1,655 

25 - 29 85249 42499 42750 65 - 69 15131 7633 7498 

25 18,573 9,299 9,274 65 2,880 1,451 1,429 

26 17,740 8,846 8,894 66 2,788 1,410 1,378 

27 16,979 8,454 8,525 67 2,933 1,481 1,452 

28 16,308 8,116 8,192 68 3,182 1,604 1,578 

29 15,649 7,784 7,865 69 3,348 1,687 1,661 

30 - 34 64962 32139 32823 70 - 74 12469 6214 6255 

30 14,887 7,395 7,492 70 3,302 1,658 1,644 

31 13,985 6,935 7,050 71 2,973 1,489 1,484 

32 13,023 6,444 6,579 72 2,506 1,248 1,258 

33 11,982 5,910 6,072 73 2,030 1,006 1,024 

34 11,085 5,455 5,630 74 1,658 813 845 

35 - 39 56788 28666 28122 75 - 79 5916 2877 3039 

35 10,613 5,237 5,376 75 1,367 665 702 

36 10,702 5,331 5,371 76 1,207 585 622 

37 11,184 5,639 5,545 77 1,140 554 586 

38 11,871 6,060 5,811 78 1,118 544 574 

39 12,418 6,399 6,019 79 1,084 529 555 

80+ 4,980 2,435 2,545 

58 


APENDIXU



59 


APENDIXU 

2013 


Sexu rua 

hotu 


Sexu rua 

hotu 

Mane Feto 

Total 1,256,441 637,733 618,708 

0-4 210,618 107,639 102,979 40 - 44 58,590 30267 28323 

0 44,891 22,935 21,956 40 12,363 6,369 5,994 

1 42,950 21,934 21,016 41 12,510 6,476 6,034 

2 41,853 21,388 20,465 42 12,094 6,267 5,827 

3 40,915 20,918 19,997 43 11,284 5,832 5,452 

4 40,009 20,464 19,545 44 10,339 5,323 5,016 

5-9 182446 93430 89016 45 - 49 45136 22727 22409 

5 39,183 20,048 19,135 45 9,544 4,895 4,649 

6 38,408 19,658 18,750 46 8,980 4,570 4,410 

7 37,672 19,287 18,385 47 8,779 4,423 4,356 

8 37,085 18,997 18,088 48 8,839 4,408 4,431 

9 30,098 15,440 14,658 49 8,994 4,431 4,563 

10 - 14 166,357 85226 81131 50 - 54 41043 19844 21199 

10 34,822 17,872 16,950 50 9,019 4,396 4,623 

11 35,373 18,142 17,231 51 8,848 4,278 4,570 

12 34,132 17,489 16,643 52 8,393 4,043 4,350 

13 32,096 16,422 15,674 53 7,749 3,733 4,016 

14 29,934 15,301 14,633 54 7,034 3,394 3,640 

15 - 19 131062 67239 63823 55 - 59 30,278 14743 15535 

15 28,067 14,340 13,727 55 6,401 3,094 3,307 

16 26,740 13,672 13,068 56 5,976 2,898 3,078 

17 25,953 13,299 12,654 57 5,851 2,849 3,002 

18 25,460 13,092 12,368 58 5,929 2,897 3,032 

19 24,842 12,836 12,006 59 6,121 3,005 3,116 

20 - 24 112128 57826 54302 60 - 64 26372 13065 13307 

20 24,214 12,560 11,654 60 6,202 3,059 3,143 

21 23,463 12,181 11,282 61 6,010 2,972 3,038 

22 22,537 11,657 10,880 62 5,487 2,721 2,766 

23 21,485 11,033 10,452 63 4,741 2,355 2,386 

24 20,429 10,395 10,034 64 3,932 1,958 1,974 

25 - 29 88854 44420 44434 65 - 69 14585 7324 7261 

25 19,446 9,806 9,640 65 3,229 1,617 1,612 

26 18,522 9,272 9,250 66 2,775 1,392 1,383 

27 17,690 8,820 8,870 67 2,688 1,354 1,334 

28 16,933 8,430 8,503 68 2,826 1,421 1,405 

29 16,263 8,092 8,171 69 3,067 1,540 1,527 

30 - 34 69309 34358 34951 70 - 74 13377 6664 6713 

30 15,602 7,760 7,842 70 3,192 1,601 1,591 

31 14,840 7,371 7,469 71 3,111 1,555 1,556 

32 13,941 6,913 7,028 72 2,800 1,395 1,405 

33 12,982 6,423 6,559 73 2,361 1,170 1,191 

34 11,944 5,891 6,053 74 1,913 943 970 

35 - 39 55244 27612 27632 75 - 79 5924 2870 3054 

35 11,047 5,435 5,612 75 1,535 749 786 

36 10,571 5,216 5,355 76 1,242 601 641 

37 10,660 5,309 5,351 77 1,096 528 568 

38 11,142 5,617 5,525 78 1,035 500 535 

39 11,824 6,035 5,789 79 1,016 492 524 

80+ 5,118 2,479 2,639



60 


APENDIXU 

2014 


Sexu rua 

hotu 


Sexu rua 

hotu 

Mane Feto 

Total 1,293,556 656,501 637,055 

0-4 214,370 109,546 104,824 40 - 44 59,784 30816 28968 

0 45,630 23,312 22,318 40 11,772 6,007 5,765 

1 43,689 22,311 21,378 41 12,302 6,334 5,968 

2 42,580 21,757 20,823 42 12,449 6,442 6,007 

3 41,673 21,303 20,370 43 12,034 6,233 5,801 

4 40,798 20,863 19,935 44 11,227 5,800 5,427 

5-9 192051 98306 93745 45 - 49 46173 23440 22733 

5 39,932 20,428 19,504 45 10,279 5,288 4,991 

6 39,124 20,019 19,105 46 9,478 4,856 4,622 

7 38,350 19,630 18,720 47 8,918 4,534 4,384 

8 37,616 19,260 18,356 48 8,720 4,389 4,331 

9 37,029 18,969 18,060 49 8,778 4,373 4,405 

10 - 14 166,327 85266 81061 50 - 54 42587 20643 21944 

10 30,059 15,421 14,638 50 8,918 4,387 4,531 

11 34,782 17,851 16,931 51 8,928 4,344 4,584 

12 35,334 18,122 17,212 52 8,760 4,228 4,532 

13 34,093 17,469 16,624 53 8,309 3,995 4,314 

14 32,059 16,403 15,656 54 7,672 3,689 3,983 

15 - 19 135920 69573 66347 55 - 59 30,746 14877 15869 

15 29,891 15,277 14,614 55 6,947 3,344 3,603 

16 28,016 14,312 13,704 56 6,306 3,040 3,266 

17 26,692 13,645 13,047 57 5,887 2,847 3,040 

18 25,907 13,273 12,634 58 5,764 2,799 2,965 

19 25,414 13,066 12,348 59 5,842 2,847 2,995 

20 - 24 116255 60100 56155 60 - 64 27935 13756 14179 

20 24,788 12,805 11,983 60 6,006 2,939 3,067 

21 24,153 12,524 11,629 61 6,060 2,979 3,081 

22 23,403 12,146 11,257 62 5,874 2,895 2,979 

23 22,480 11,623 10,857 63 5,363 2,650 2,713 

24 21,431 11,002 10,429 64 4,632 2,293 2,339 

25 - 29 92770 46589 46181 65 - 69 14925 7449 7476 

25 20,375 10,365 10,010 65 3,818 1,894 1,924 

26 19,394 9,778 9,616 66 3,114 1,553 1,561 

27 18,471 9,245 9,226 67 2,676 1,337 1,339 

28 17,642 8,795 8,847 68 2,591 1,300 1,291 

29 16,888 8,406 8,482 69 2,726 1,365 1,361 

30 - 34 73403 36444 36959 70 - 74 13732 6828 6904 

30 16,216 8,068 8,148 70 2,924 1,462 1,462 

31 15,553 7,735 7,818 71 3,009 1,501 1,508 

32 14,794 7,347 7,447 72 2,933 1,459 1,474 

33 13,898 6,891 7,007 73 2,640 1,309 1,331 

34 12,942 6,403 6,539 74 2,226 1097 1,129 

35 - 39 55156 27360 27796 75 - 79 6235 3019 3216 

35 11,902 5,869 6,033 75 1,772 869 903 

36 11,005 5,414 5,591 76 1,396 677 719 

37 10,531 5,195 5,336 77 1,129 543 586 

38 10,619 5,288 5,331 78 997 478 519 

39 11,099 5,594 5,505 79 941 452 489 

80+ 5,187 2,489 2,698



61 


APENDIXU 

2015 


Sexu rua 

hotu 


Sexu rua 

hotu 

Mane Feto 

Total 1,331,354 675,612 655,742 

0-4 218,125 111,457 106,668 40 - 44 59,370 30449 28921 

0 46,391 23,701 22,690 40 11,050 5,567 5,483 

1 44,450 22,698 21,752 41 11,715 5,975 5,740 

2 43,324 22,136 21,188 42 12,242 6,300 5,942 

3 42,402 21,673 20,729 43 12,389 6,408 5,981 

4 41,558 21,249 20,309 44 11,974 6,199 5,775 

5-9 195518 100054 95464 45 - 49 48303 24681 23622 

5 40,722 20,827 19,895 45 11,162 5,762 5,400 

6 39,874 20,400 19,474 46 10,210 5,248 4,962 

7 39,067 19,991 19,076 47 9,413 4,818 4,595 

8 38,294 19,603 18,691 48 8,857 4,498 4,359 

9 37,561 19,233 18,328 49 8,661 4,355 4,306 

10 - 14 171,102 87732 83370 50 - 54 43275 21087 22188 

10 36,982 18,946 18,036 50 8,706 4,331 4,375 

11 30,025 15,403 14,622 51 8,828 4,335 4,493 

12 34,744 17,831 16,913 52 8,841 4,294 4,547 

13 35,295 18,102 17,193 53 8,673 4,178 4,495 

14 34,056 17,450 16,606 54 8,227 3,949 4,278 

15 - 19 142324 72775 69549 55 - 59 32,117 15456 16661 

15 32,013 16,378 15,635 55 7,578 3,635 3,943 

16 29,838 15,247 14,591 56 6,845 3,286 3,559 

17 27,966 14,284 13,682 57 6,214 2,987 3,227 

18 26,645 13,618 13,027 58 5,801 2,798 3,003 

19 25,862 13,248 12,614 59 5,679 2,750 2,929 

20 - 24 119948 61993 57955 60 - 64 28514 13953 14561 

20 25,359 13,034 12,325 60 5,734 2,786 2,948 

21 24,727 12,769 11,958 61 5,872 2,863 3,009 

22 24,093 12,489 11,604 62 5,923 2,902 3,021 

23 23,345 12,111 11,234 63 5,742 2,820 2,922 

24 22,424 11,590 10,834 64 5,243 2,582 2,661 

25 - 29 97055 49046 48009 65 - 69 16267 8063 8204 

25 21,375 10,971 10,404 65 4,498 2,218 2,280 

26 20,321 10,336 9,985 66 3,684 1,820 1,864 

27 19,342 9,750 9,592 67 3,004 1,492 1,512 

28 18,422 9,219 9,203 68 2,581 1,284 1,297 

29 17,595 8,770 8,825 69 2,500 1,249 1,251 

30 - 34 77118 38328 38790 70 - 74 13456 6676 6780 

30 16,840 8,381 8,459 70 2,601 1,297 1,304 

31 16,167 8,043 8,124 71 2,759 1,372 1,387 

32 15,506 7,711 7,795 72 2,838 1,409 1,429 

33 14,748 7,323 7,425 73 2,767 1,369 1,398 

34 13,857 6,870 6,987 74 2,491 1,229 1,262 

35 - 39 56789 28061 28728 75 - 79 6883 3334 3549 

35 12,897 6,380 6,517 75 2,064 1012 1052 

36 11,857 5,846 6,011 76 1,613 786 827 

37 10,965 5,393 5,572 77 1,270 612 658 

38 10,491 5,174 5,317 78 1,029 492 537 

39 10,579 5,268 5,311 79 907 432 475 

80+ 5,190 2,467 2,723



62 


APENDIXU 

2016 


Sexu rua 

hotu 


Sexu rua 

hotu 

Mane Feto 

Total 1,369,829 695,061 674,768 

0-4 221,908 113,382 108,526 40 - 44 57,701 29365 28336 

0 47,146 24,086 23,060 40 10,533 5,243 5,290 

1 45,235 23,098 22,137 41 10,997 5,538 5,459 

2 44,090 22,525 21,565 42 11,659 5,944 5,715 

3 43,149 22,053 21,096 43 12,183 6,266 5,917 

4 42,288 21,620 20,668 44 12,329 6,374 5,955 

5-9 199218 101926 97292 45 - 49 51282 26329 24953 

5 41,483 21,213 20,270 45 11,905 6,159 5,746 

6 40,665 20,799 19,866 46 11,088 5,718 5,370 

7 39,818 20,373 19,445 47 10,141 5,207 4,934 

8 39,012 19,964 19,048 48 9,349 4,781 4,568 

9 38,240 19,577 18,663 49 8,799 4,464 4,335 

10 - 14 174,411 89414 84997 50 - 54 43294 21253 22041 

10 37,514 19,209 18,305 50 8,589 4,313 4,276 

11 36,941 18,925 18,016 51 8,621 4,281 4,340 

12 29,994 15,387 14,607 52 8,741 4,285 4,456 

13 34,705 17,811 16,894 53 8,755 4,244 4,511 

14 35,257 18,082 17,175 54 8,588 4,130 4,458 

15 - 19 150268 76836 73432 55 - 59 34,183 16380 17803 

15 34,008 17,423 16,585 55 8,128 3,892 4,236 

16 31,957 16,347 15,610 56 7,468 3,572 3,896 

17 29,787 15,218 14,569 57 6,746 3,230 3,516 

18 27,917 14,256 13,661 58 6,124 2,936 3,188 

19 26,599 13,592 13,007 59 5,717 2,750 2,967 

20 - 24 123094 63479 59615 60 - 64 28330 13771 14559 

20 25,808 13,217 12,591 60 5,576 2,691 2,885 

21 25,297 12,997 12,300 61 5,607 2,715 2,892 

22 24,668 12,734 11,934 62 5,741 2,789 2,952 

23 24,033 12,454 11,579 63 5,793 2,829 2,964 

24 23,288 12,077 11,211 64 5,613 2,747 2,866 

25 - 29 101620 51722 49898 65 - 69 18382 9048 9334 

25 22,368 11,558 10,810 65 5,095 2,499 2,596 

26 21,318 10,940 10,378 66 4,341 2,132 2,209 

27 20,268 10,307 9,961 67 3,556 1,749 1,807 

28 19,292 9,723 9,569 68 2,899 1,434 1,465 

29 18,374 9,194 9,180 69 2,491 1,234 1,257 

30 - 34 80617 40104 40513 70 - 74 12737 6302 6435 

30 17,546 8,744 8,802 70 2,386 1,187 1,199 

31 16,790 8,355 8,435 71 2,456 1,218 1,238 

32 16,118 8,018 8,100 72 2,604 1,288 1,316 

33 15,459 7,687 7,772 73 2,680 1,324 1,356 

34 14,704 7,300 7,404 74 2,611 1,285 1,326 

35 - 39 59851 29551 30300 75 - 79 7757 3762 3995 

35 13,811 6,846 6,965 75 2,313 1135 1178 

36 12,849 6,355 6,494 76 1,880 916 964 

37 11,814 5,824 5,990 77 1,470 712 758 

38 10,924 5,372 5,552 78 1,157 554 603 

39 10,453 5,154 5,299 79 937 445 492 

80+ 5,176 2,437 2,739



63 


APENDIXU 

2017 


hotu 


Sexu rua 

hotu 

Mane Feto 

Total 1,408,952 714,831 694,121 

0-4 225,726 115,323 110,403 40 - 44 55,566 28002 27564 

0 47,878 24,459 23,419 40 10,409 5,131 5,278 

1 46,014 23,494 22,520 41 10,484 5,216 5,268 

2 44,880 22,927 21,953 42 10,944 5,508 5,436 

3 43,916 22,442 21,474 43 11,605 5,914 5,691 

4 43,038 22,001 21,037 44 12,124 6,233 5,891 

5-9 202973 103827 99146 45 - 49 54462 28032 26430 

5 42,215 21,585 20,630 45 12,259 6,333 5,926 

6 41,426 21,185 20,241 46 11,827 6,112 5,715 

7 40,610 20,773 19,837 47 11,014 5,675 5,339 

8 39,763 20,346 19,417 48 10,074 5,167 4,907 

9 38,959 19,938 19,021 49 9,288 4,745 4,543 

10 - 14 177,199 90808 86391 50 - 54 43096 21348 21748 

10 38,193 19,553 18,640 50 8,726 4,421 4,305 

11 37,474 19,188 18,286 51 8,506 4,264 4,242 

12 36,902 18,905 17,997 52 8,538 4,232 4,306 

13 29,962 15,370 14,592 53 8,656 4,236 4,420 

14 34,668 17,792 16,876 54 8,670 4,195 4,475 

15 - 19 158667 81179 77488 55 - 59 36,545 17470 19075 

15 35,208 18,055 17,153 55 8,485 4,071 4,414 

16 33,951 17,390 16,561 56 8,012 3,826 4,186 

17 31,902 16,316 15,586 57 7,362 3,512 3,850 

18 29,736 15,189 14,547 58 6,650 3,175 3,475 

19 27,870 14,229 13,641 59 6,036 2,886 3,150 

20 - 24 126,112 64,821 61,291 60 - 64 27,834 13,437 14,397 

20 26,545 13,561 12,984 60 5,614 2,692 2,922 

21 25,746 13,180 12,566 61 5,454 2,623 2,831 

22 25,236 12,961 12,275 62 5,485 2,646 2,839 

23 24,609 12,699 11,910 63 5,615 2,718 2,897 

24 23,976 12,420 11,556 64 5,666 2,758 2,908 

25 - 29 106,262 54,455 51,807 65 - 69 20,798 10,171 10,627 

25 23,229 12,043 11,186 65 5,455 2,659 2,796 

26 22,312 11,527 10,785 66 4,920 2,403 2,517 

27 21,263 10,910 10,353 67 4,191 2,049 2,142 

28 20,216 10,279 9,937 68 3,434 1,682 1,752 

29 19,242 9,696 9,546 69 2,798 1,378 1,420 

30 - 34 84043 41871 42172 70 - 74 11946 5888 6058 

30 18,324 9,167 9,157 70 2,381 1,174 1,207 

31 17,493 8,717 8,776 71 2,253 1,115 1,138 

32 16,742 8,330 8,412 72 2,321 1,145 1,176 

33 16,071 7,994 8,077 73 2,459 1,210 1,249 

34 15,413 7,663 7,750 74 2,532 1,244 1,288 

35 - 39 63874 31578 32296 75 - 79 8646 4194 4452 

35 14,656 7,275 7,381 75 2,425 1187 1,238 

36 13,761 6,820 6,941 76 2,110 1029 1081 

37 12,803 6,331 6,472 77 1,715 830 885 

38 11,770 5,801 5,969 78 1,341 646 695 

39 10,884 5,351 5,533 79 1,055 502 553 

80+ 5,203 2,427 2,776



64 


APENDIXU 

2018 


hotu 


Sexu rua 

hotu 

Mane Feto 

Total 1,448,691 734,906 713,785 

0-4 229,534 117,257 112,277 40 - 44 54,078 26983 27095 

0 48,585 24,819 23,766 40 10,839 5,327 5,512 

1 46,770 23,878 22,892 41 10,361 5,105 5,256 

2 45,664 23,325 22,339 42 10,435 5,189 5,246 

3 44,709 22,845 21,864 43 10,893 5,479 5,414 

4 43,806 22,390 21,416 44 11,550 5,883 5,667 

5-9 206764 105751 101013 45 - 49 56935 29306 27629 

5 42,967 21,968 20,999 45 12,056 6,194 5,862 

6 42,159 21,557 20,602 46 12,180 6,286 5,894 

7 41,371 21,159 20,212 47 11,748 6,065 5,683 

8 40,556 20,746 19,810 48 10,943 5,633 5,310 

9 39,711 20,321 19,390 49 10,008 5,128 4,880 

10 - 14 181,295 92852 88443 50 - 54 43309 21659 21650 

10 38,912 19,914 18,998 50 9,213 4,700 4,513 

11 38,153 19,532 18,621 51 8,642 4,371 4,271 

12 37,436 19,168 18,268 52 8,425 4,216 4,209 

13 36,863 18,884 17,979 53 8,456 4,184 4,272 

14 29,931 15,354 14,577 54 8,573 4,188 4,385 

15 - 19 165199 84590 80609 55 - 59 38,646 18474 20172 

15 34,621 17,766 16,855 55 8,568 4,136 4,432 

16 35,149 18,021 17,128 56 8,365 4,002 4,363 

17 33,895 17,358 16,537 57 7,899 3,762 4,137 

18 31,848 16,285 15,563 58 7,258 3,453 3,805 

19 29,686 15,160 14,526 59 6,556 3,121 3,435 

20 - 24 129711 66456 63255 60 - 64 27617 13237 14380 

20 27,815 14,197 13,618 60 5,929 2,826 3,103 

21 26,482 13,524 12,958 61 5,493 2,625 2,868 

22 25,685 13,144 12,541 62 5,336 2,557 2,779 

23 25,177 12,926 12,251 63 5,365 2,579 2,786 

24 24,552 12,665 11,887 64 5,494 2,650 2,844 

25 - 29 110718 57024 53694 65 - 69 22897 11128 11769 

25 23,917 12,386 11,531 65 5,509 2,671 2,838 

26 23,170 12,010 11,160 66 5,270 2,558 2,712 

27 22,256 11,496 10,760 67 4,753 2,311 2,442 

28 21,210 10,881 10,329 68 4,049 1,971 2,078 

29 20,165 10,251 9,914 69 3,316 1,617 1,699 

30 - 34 87622 43773 43849 70 - 74 11575 5678 5897 

30 19,190 9,668 9,522 70 2,675 1,311 1,364 

31 18,270 9,139 9,131 71 2,251 1,104 1,147 

32 17,444 8,691 8,753 72 2,129 1,048 1,081 

33 16,694 8,305 8,389 73 2,195 1,077 1,118 

34 16,024 7,970 8,054 74 2,325 1,138 1,187 

35 - 39 68164 33765 34399 75 - 79 9284 4499 4785 

35 15,364 7,637 7,727 75 2,354 1150 1,204 

36 14,602 7,247 7,355 76 2,213 1076 1137 

37 13,713 6,795 6,918 77 1,926 934 992 

38 12,757 6,307 6,450 78 1,567 753 814 

39 11,728 5,779 5,949 79 1,224 586 638 

80+ 5,343 2,474 2,869



2019 


hotu 


Sexu rua 

hotu 

Mane Feto 

Total 1,488,968 755,246 733,722 

0-4 233,246 119,142 114,104 40 - 44 54,013 26746 27267 

0 49,223 25,144 24,079 40 11,680 5,753 5,927 

1 47,500 24,249 23,251 41 10,789 5,300 5,489 

2 46,427 23,712 22,715 42 10,314 5,079 5,235 

3 45,496 23,244 22,252 43 10,386 5,162 5,224 

4 44,600 22,793 21,807 44 10,844 5,452 5,392 

5-9 210575 107683 102892 45 - 49 58110 29844 28266 

5 43,736 22,357 21,379 45 11,485 5,845 5,640 

6 42,912 21,941 20,971 46 11,979 6,149 5,830 

7 42,105 21,531 20,574 47 12,101 6,239 5,862 

8 41,318 21,133 20,185 48 11,672 6,019 5,653 

9 40,504 20,721 19,783 49 10,873 5,592 5,281 

10 - 14 190,874 97713 93161 50 - 54 44334 22355 21979 

10 39,665 20,297 19,368 50 9,928 5,080 4,848 

11 38,872 19,893 18,979 51 9,125 4,647 4,478 

12 38,115 19,512 18,603 52 8,560 4,322 4,238 

13 37,397 19,147 18,250 53 8,346 4,169 4,177 

14 36,825 18,864 17,961 54 8,375 4,137 4,238 

15 - 19 165182 84634 80548 55 - 59 40,116 19227 20889 

15 29,891 15,332 14,559 55 8,473 4,130 4,343 

16 34,564 17,733 16,831 56 8,448 4,067 4,381 

17 35,092 17,988 17,104 57 8,249 3,935 4,314 

18 33,839 17,326 16,513 58 7,789 3,700 4,089 

19 31,796 16,255 15,541 59 7,157 3,395 3,762 

20 - 24 134544 68772 65772 60 - 64 28091 13380 14711 

20 29,627 15,125 14,502 60 6,441 3,057 3,384 

21 27,752 14,160 13,592 61 5,802 2,755 3,047 

22 26,421 13,487 12,934 62 5,376 2,560 2,816 

23 25,625 13,109 12,516 63 5,222 2,493 2,729 

24 25,119 12,891 12,228 64 5,250 2,515 2,735 

25 - 29 114823 59280 55543 65 - 69 24267 11718 12549 

25 24,494 12,632 11,862 65 5,344 2,568 2,776 

26 23,857 12,352 11,505 66 5,324 2,570 2,754 

27 23,114 11,979 11,135 67 5,092 2,460 2,632 

28 22,201 11,465 10,736 68 4,594 2,224 2,370 

29 21,157 10,852 10,305 69 3,913 1,896 2,017 

30 - 34 91507 45919 45588 70 - 74 11922 5811 6111 

30 20,111 10,222 9,889 70 3,172 1,540 1,632 

31 19,136 9,639 9,497 71 2,530 1,233 1,297 

32 18,218 9,112 9,106 72 2,130 1,039 1,091 

33 17,395 8,665 8,730 73 2,013 985 1,028 

34 16,647 8,281 8,366 74 2,077 1,014 1,063 

35 - 39 72211 35825 36386 75 - 79 9529 4605 4924 

35 15,973 7,943 8,030 75 2,163 1,052 1,111 

36 15,311 7,609 7,702 76 2,151 1044 1107 

37 14,549 7,219 7,330 77 2,023 977 1046 

38 13,665 6,770 6,895 78 1,761 849 912 

39 12,713 6,284 6,429 79 1,431 683 748 

80+ 5,624 2,592 3,032 

65 


APENDIXU



66 


APENDIXU 

2020 


hotu 


Sexu rua 

hotu 

Mane Feto 

Total 1,529,817 775,869 753,948 

0-4 236,879 120,987 115,892 40 - 44 55,636 27443 28193 

0 49,903 25,491 24,412 40 12,663 6,257 6,406 

1 48,164 24,586 23,578 41 11,627 5,724 5,903 

2 47,162 24,085 23,077 42 10,740 5,273 5,467 

3 46,262 23,632 22,630 43 10,268 5,054 5,214 

4 45,388 23,193 22,195 44 10,338 5,135 5,203 

5-9 214392 109619 104773 45 - 49 57721 29492 28229 

5 44,531 22,760 21,771 45 10,785 5,419 5,366 

6 43,681 22,330 21,351 46 11,412 5,802 5,610 

7 42,861 21,916 20,945 47 11,902 6,103 5,799 

8 42,052 21,505 20,547 48 12,025 6,194 5,831 

9 41,267 21,108 20,159 49 11,597 5,974 5,623 

10 - 14 194,353 99465 94888 50 - 54 46409 23557 22852 

10 40,458 20,698 19,760 50 10,788 5,541 5,247 

11 39,625 20,275 19,350 51 9,833 5,023 4,810 

12 38,833 19,873 18,960 52 9,041 4,596 4,445 

13 38,077 19,492 18,585 53 8,479 4,274 4,205 

14 37,360 19,127 18,233 54 8,268 4,123 4,145 

15 - 19 169947 87091 82856 55 - 59 40,783 19651 21132 

15 36,777 18,837 17,940 55 8,278 4,080 4,198 

16 29,842 15,304 14,538 56 8,356 4,062 4,294 

17 34,508 17,700 16,808 57 8,331 3,999 4,332 

18 35,036 17,955 17,081 58 8,135 3,870 4,265 

19 33,784 17,295 16,489 59 7,683 3,640 4,043 

20 - 24 140912 71952 68960 60 - 64 29392 13923 15469 

20 31,735 16,219 15,516 60 7,032 3,325 3,707 

21 29,560 15,085 14,475 61 6,306 2,982 3,324 

22 27,690 14,123 13,567 62 5,680 2,687 2,993 

23 26,361 13,451 12,910 63 5,262 2,497 2,765 

24 25,566 13,074 12,492 64 5,112 2,432 2,680 

25 - 29 118500 61158 57342 65 - 69 24788 11891 12897 

25 25,060 12,857 12,203 65 5,109 2,437 2,672 

26 24,436 12,599 11,837 66 5,167 2,472 2,695 

27 23,798 12,319 11,479 67 5,147 2,474 2,673 

28 23,058 11,948 11,110 68 4,922 2,367 2,555 

29 22,148 11,435 10,713 69 4,443 2,141 2,302 

30 - 34 95754 48350 47404 70 - 74 13064 6321 6743 

30 21,102 10,822 10,280 70 3,744 1,805 1,939 

31 20,055 10,192 9,863 71 3,003 1,450 1,553 

32 19,083 9,611 9,472 72 2,395 1,161 1,234 

33 18,167 9,085 9,082 73 2,016 978 1,038 

34 17,347 8,640 8,707 74 1,906 927 979 

35 - 39 75886 37685 38201 75 - 79 9342 4503 4839 

35 16,595 8,253 8,342 75 1,933 938 995 

36 15,917 7,914 8,003 76 1,979 956 1,023 

37 15,258 7,581 7,677 77 1,968 949 1019 

38 14,499 7,192 7,307 78 1,851 888 963 

39 13,617 6,745 6,872 79 1,611 772 839 

80+ 6,059 2,781 3,278



67 


APENDIXU 

2021 


hotu 


Sexu rua 

hotu 

Mane Feto 

Total 1,571,373 796,842 774,531 

0-4 240,580 122,866 117,714 40 - 44 58,660 28914 29746 

0 50,725 25,910 24,815 40 13,564 6,717 6,847 

1 48,867 24,943 23,924 41 12,606 6,225 6,381 

2 47,833 24,425 23,408 42 11,576 5,696 5,880 

3 46,998 24,006 22,992 43 10,692 5,247 5,445 

4 46,157 23,582 22,575 44 10,222 5,029 5,193 

5-9 218238 111570 106668 45 - 49 56116 28450 27666 

5 45,321 23,161 22,160 45 10,283 5,103 5,180 

6 44,478 22,734 21,744 46 10,717 5,380 5,337 

7 43,628 22,304 21,324 47 11,341 5,760 5,581 

8 42,810 21,891 20,919 48 11,826 6,058 5,768 

9 42,001 21,480 20,521 49 11,949 6,149 5,800 

10 - 14 198,061 101341 96720 50 - 54 49294 25140 24154 

10 41,222 21,085 20,137 50 11,507 5,919 5,588 

11 40,419 20,677 19,742 51 10,689 5,481 5,208 

12 39,585 20,254 19,331 52 9,740 4,967 4,773 

13 38,795 19,852 18,943 53 8,958 4,546 4,412 

14 38,040 19,473 18,567 54 8,400 4,227 4,173 

15 - 19 173260 88770 84490 55 - 59 40,822 19817 21005 

15 37,311 19,099 18,212 55 8,174 4,067 4,107 

16 36,720 18,804 17,916 56 8,164 4,013 4,151 

17 29,795 15,276 14,519 57 8,242 3,996 4,246 

18 34,453 17,668 16,785 58 8,218 3,934 4,284 

19 34,981 17,923 17,058 59 8,024 3,807 4,217 

20 - 24 148810 75982 72828 60 - 64 31327 14777 16550 

20 33,720 17,257 16,463 60 7,552 3,566 3,986 

21 31,664 16,177 15,487 61 6,885 3,244 3,641 

22 29,494 15,045 14,449 62 6,176 2,910 3,266 

23 27,630 14,087 13,543 63 5,561 2,621 2,940 

24 26,302 13,416 12,886 64 5,153 2,436 2,717 

25 - 29 121630 62634 58996 65 - 69 24655 11746 12909 

25 25,507 13,039 12,468 65 4,976 2,358 2,618 

26 25,001 12,825 12,176 66 4,941 2,346 2,595 

27 24,378 12,566 11,812 67 4,998 2,380 2,618 

28 23,741 12,287 11,454 68 4,979 2,383 2,596 

29 23,003 11,917 11,086 69 4,761 2,279 2,482 

30 - 34 100285 50999 49286 70 - 74 14824 7120 7704 

30 22,092 11,404 10,688 70 4,254 2,039 2,215 

31 21,044 10,790 10,254 71 3,546 1,700 1,846 

32 20,000 10,163 9,837 72 2,845 1,366 1,479 

33 19,032 9,584 9,448 73 2,269 1,094 1,175 

34 18,117 9,058 9,059 74 1,910 921 989 

35 - 39 79350 39439 39911 75 - 79 8856 4252 4604 

35 17,293 8,612 8,681 75 1,777 859 918 

36 16,539 8,223 8,316 76 1,769 853 916 

37 15,863 7,885 7,978 77 1,812 869 943 

38 15,206 7,554 7,652 78 1,802 863 939 

39 14,449 7,165 7,284 79 1,696 808 888 

80+ 6,605 3,025 3,580



2022 


hotu 


Sexu rua 

hotu 

Mane Feto 

Total 1,613,653 818,174 795,479 

0-4 244,389 124,801 119,588 40 - 44 62,618 30902 31716 

0 51,566 26,339 25,227 40 14,392 7,134 7,258 

1 49,712 25,373 24,339 41 13,504 6,684 6,820 

2 48,544 24,785 23,759 42 12,552 6,195 6,357 

3 47,672 24,347 23,325 43 11,525 5,668 5,857 

4 46,895 23,957 22,938 44 10,645 5,221 5,424 

5-9 222124 113540 108584 45 - 49 54061 27139 26922 

5 46,091 23,550 22,541 45 10,168 4,999 5,169 

6 45,269 23,136 22,133 46 10,219 5,066 5,153 

7 44,426 22,708 21,718 47 10,651 5,341 5,310 

8 43,578 22,280 21,298 48 11,271 5,719 5,552 

9 42,760 21,866 20,894 49 11,752 6,014 5,738 

10 - 14 201,823 103242 98581 50 - 54 52377 26780 25597 

10 41,956 21,457 20,499 50 11,857 6,093 5,764 

11 41,183 21,064 20,119 51 11,401 5,855 5,546 

12 40,379 20,656 19,723 52 10,592 5,422 5,170 

13 39,548 20,234 19,314 53 9,650 4,913 4,737 

14 38,757 19,831 18,926 54 8,877 4,497 4,380 

15 - 19 176057 90168 85889 55 - 59 40,659 19921 20738 

15 37,993 19,447 18,546 55 8,305 4,170 4,135 

16 37,252 19,064 18,188 56 8,062 4,001 4,061 

17 36,663 18,771 17,892 57 8,054 3,948 4,106 

18 29,749 15,249 14,500 58 8,132 3,932 4,200 

19 34,400 17,637 16,763 59 8,106 3,870 4,236 

20 - 24 157157 80289 76868 60 - 64 33527 15775 17752 

20 34,916 17,884 17,032 60 7,889 3,731 4,158 

21 33,647 17,213 16,434 61 7,397 3,480 3,917 

22 31,595 16,135 15,460 62 6,744 3,166 3,578 

23 29,429 15,006 14,423 63 6,050 2,840 3,210 

24 27,570 14,051 13,519 64 5,447 2,558 2,889 

25 - 29 124641 63970 60671 65 - 69 24268 11481 12787 

25 26,243 13,382 12,861 65 5,017 2,362 2,655 

26 25,448 13,006 12,442 66 4,815 2,271 2,544 

27 24,943 12,792 12,151 67 4,782 2,260 2,522 

28 24,321 12,534 11,787 68 4,836 2,292 2,544 

29 23,686 12,256 11,430 69 4,818 2,296 2,522 

30 - 34 104894 53707 51187 70 - 74 16803 8014 8789 

30 22,945 11,885 11,060 70 4,561 2,172 2,389 

31 22,033 11,371 10,662 71 4,033 1,922 2,111 

32 20,988 10,760 10,228 72 3,362 1,602 1,760 

33 19,946 10,134 9,812 73 2,696 1,287 1,409 

34 18,982 9,557 9,425 74 2,151 1,031 1,120 

35 - 39 82746 41187 41559 75 - 79 8346 3989 4357 

35 18,062 9,029 9,033 75 1,782 854 928 

36 17,235 8,581 8,654 76 1,629 782 847 

37 16,483 8,193 8,290 77 1,622 777 845 

38 15,810 7,857 7,953 78 1,661 791 870 

39 15,156 7,527 7,629 79 1,652 785 867 

80+ 7,163 3,269 3,894 

68 


APENDIXU



69 


APENDIXU 

2023 


hotu 


Sexu rua 

hotu 

Mane Feto 

Total 1,656,545 839,808 816,737 

0-4 248,225 126,749 121,476 40 - 44 66,847 33052 33795 

0 52,297 26,712 25,585 40 15,098 7,495 7,603 

1 50,576 25,812 24,764 41 14,330 7,100 7,230 

2 49,393 25,217 24,176 42 13,446 6,652 6,794 

3 48,387 24,709 23,678 43 12,498 6,165 6,333 

4 47,572 24,299 23,273 44 11,475 5,640 5,835 

5-9 225993 115501 110492 45 - 49 52641 26165 26476 

5 46,829 23,925 22,904 45 10,589 5,190 5,399 

6 46,040 23,525 22,515 46 10,106 4,963 5,143 

7 45,218 23,111 22,107 47 10,157 5,030 5,127 

8 44,377 22,684 21,693 48 10,586 5,303 5,283 

9 43,529 22,256 21,273 49 11,203 5,679 5,524 

10 - 14 205,628 105171 100457 50 - 54 54768 28004 26764 

10 42,716 21,843 20,873 50 11,662 5,960 5,702 

11 41,917 21,436 20,481 51 11,749 6,027 5,722 

12 41,144 21,043 20,101 52 11,299 5,793 5,506 

13 40,340 20,635 19,705 53 10,496 5,364 5,132 

14 39,511 20,214 19,297 54 9,562 4,860 4,702 

15 - 19 180151 92208 87943 55 - 59 40,897 20232 20665 

15 38,709 19,804 18,905 55 8,778 4,437 4,341 

16 37,935 19,413 18,522 56 8,193 4,103 4,090 

17 37,195 19,030 18,165 57 7,955 3,938 4,017 

18 36,609 18,739 17,870 58 7,947 3,885 4,062 

19 29,703 15,222 14,481 59 8,024 3,869 4,155 

20 - 24 163648 83670 79978 60 - 64 35481 16695 18786 

20 34,337 17,599 16,738 60 7,970 3,793 4,177 

21 34,841 17,839 17,002 61 7,729 3,642 4,087 

22 33,575 17,169 16,406 62 7,247 3,397 3,850 

23 31,529 16,095 15,434 63 6,608 3,091 3,517 

24 29,366 14,968 14,398 64 5,927 2,772 3,155 

25 - 29 128233 65599 62634 65 - 69 24136 11332 12804 

25 27,509 14,015 13,494 65 5,306 2,481 2,825 

26 26,183 13,349 12,834 66 4,857 2,276 2,581 

27 25,390 12,973 12,417 67 4,662 2,189 2,473 

28 24,886 12,760 12,126 68 4,629 2,177 2,452 

29 24,265 12,502 11,763 69 4,682 2,209 2,473 

30 - 34 109315 56251 53064 70 - 74 18519 8775 9744 

30 23,628 12,224 11,404 70 4,619 2,189 2,430 

31 22,885 11,852 11,033 71 4,326 2,048 2,278 

32 21,976 11,339 10,637 72 3,826 1,813 2,013 

33 20,932 10,730 10,202 73 3,190 1,511 1,679 

34 19,894 10,106 9,788 74 2,558 1,214 1,344 

35 - 39 86293 43067 43226 75 - 79 8150 3875 4275 

35 18,927 9,527 9,400 75 2,007 956 1,051 

36 18,001 8,996 9,005 76 1,636 778 858 

37 17,179 8,551 8,628 77 1,494 712 782 

38 16,428 8,164 8,264 78 1,490 709 781 

39 15,758 7,829 7,929 79 1,523 720 803 

80+ 7,620 3,462 4,158



70 


APENDIXU 

2024 


hotu 


Sexu rua 

hotu 

Mane Feto 

Total 1,699,747 861,590 838,157 

0-4 251,842 128,586 123,256 40 - 44 70,834 35077 35757 

0 52,720 26,927 25,793 40 15,699 7,797 7,902 

1 51,333 26,198 25,135 41 15,033 7,458 7,575 

2 50,262 25,658 24,604 42 14,270 7,067 7,203 

3 49,240 25,142 24,098 43 13,388 6,620 6,768 

4 48,287 24,661 23,626 44 12,444 6,135 6,309 

5-9 229776 117417 112359 45 - 49 52606 25949 26657 

5 47,509 24,269 23,240 45 11,417 5,607 5,810 

6 46,779 23,900 22,879 46 10,525 5,153 5,372 

7 45,990 23,501 22,489 47 10,046 4,929 5,117 

8 45,170 23,087 22,083 48 10,096 4,994 5,102 

9 44,328 22,660 21,668 49 10,522 5,266 5,256 

10 - 14 209,449 107107 102342 50 - 54 55921 28527 27394 

10 43,485 22,233 21,252 50 11,119 5,629 5,490 

11 42,677 21,822 20,855 51 11,558 5,896 5,662 

12 41,878 21,415 20,463 52 11,644 5,964 5,680 

13 41,106 21,022 20,084 53 11,198 5,731 5,467 

14 40,303 20,615 19,688 54 10,402 5,307 5,095 

15 - 19 189687 97040 92647 55 - 59 41,896 20901 20995 

15 39,463 20,187 19,276 55 9,456 4,796 4,660 

16 38,652 19,770 18,882 56 8,662 4,367 4,295 

17 37,878 19,379 18,499 57 8,084 4,038 4,046 

18 37,139 18,997 18,142 58 7,851 3,876 3,975 

19 36,555 18,707 17,848 59 7,843 3,824 4,019 

20 - 24 163651 83721 79930 60 - 64 36855 17388 19467 

20 29,650 15,190 14,460 60 7,891 3,793 4,098 

21 34,265 17,555 16,710 61 7,810 3,703 4,107 

22 34,768 17,795 16,973 62 7,575 3,557 4,018 

23 33,504 17,125 16,379 63 7,102 3,316 3,786 

24 31,464 16,056 15,408 64 6,477 3,019 3,458 

25 - 29 133038 67896 65142 65 - 69 24617 11484 13133 

25 29,302 14,930 14,372 65 5,775 2,690 3,085 

26 27,448 13,981 13,467 66 5,139 2,391 2,748 

27 26,125 13,316 12,809 67 4,704 2,194 2,510 

28 25,333 12,941 12,392 68 4,515 2,110 2,405 

29 24,830 12,728 12,102 69 4,484 2,099 2,385 

30 - 34 113398 58488 54910 70 - 74 19643 9242 10401 

30 24,207 12,470 11,737 70 4,490 2,107 2,383 

31 23,567 12,190 11,377 71 4,385 2,066 2,319 

32 22,825 11,819 11,006 72 4,107 1,932 2,175 

33 21,920 11,308 10,612 73 3,632 1,711 1,921 

34 20,879 10,701 10,178 74 3,029 1,426 1,603 

35 - 39 90142 45189 44953 75 - 79 8477 4004 4473 

35 19,835 10,074 9,761 75 2,389 1,126 1,263 

36 18,867 9,494 9,373 76 1,844 872 972 

37 17,941 8,964 8,977 77 1,503 710 793 

38 17,123 8,521 8,602 78 1,372 649 723 

39 16,376 8,136 8,240 79 1,369 647 722 

80+ 7,915 3,574 4,341



71 


APENDIXU 

2025 


hotu 


Sexu rua 

hotu 

Mane Feto 

Total 1,743,239 883,511 859,728 

0-4 255,182 130,283 124,899 40 - 44 74,461 36908 37553 

0 53,117 27,129 25,988 40 16,316 8,103 8,213 

1 51,786 26,428 25,358 41 15,633 7,760 7,873 

2 51,026 26,047 24,979 42 14,969 7,422 7,547 

3 50,110 25,583 24,527 43 14,211 7,034 7,177 

4 49,143 25,096 24,047 44 13,332 6,589 6,743 

5-9 233479 119292 114187 45 - 49 54215 26638 27577 

5 48,224 24,630 23,594 45 12,380 6,099 6,281 

6 47,460 24,245 23,215 46 11,350 5,568 5,782 

7 46,730 23,876 22,854 47 10,463 5,117 5,346 

8 45,942 23,477 22,465 48 9,986 4,895 5,091 

9 45,123 23,064 22,059 49 10,036 4,959 5,077 

10 - 14 213,277 109046 104231 50 - 54 55563 28197 27366 

10 44,285 22,638 21,647 50 10,446 5,221 5,225 

11 43,445 22,211 21,234 51 11,020 5,569 5,451 

12 42,638 21,801 20,837 52 11,456 5,834 5,622 

13 41,840 21,394 20,446 53 11,541 5,902 5,639 

14 41,069 21,002 20,067 54 11,100 5,671 5,429 

15 - 19 193164 98787 94377 55 - 59 43,896 22048 21848 

15 40,256 20,588 19,668 55 10,288 5,238 5,050 

16 39,405 20,152 19,253 56 9,332 4,721 4,611 

17 38,596 19,737 18,859 57 8,549 4,299 4,250 

18 37,822 19,346 18,476 58 7,978 3,974 4,004 

19 37,085 18,964 18,121 59 7,749 3,816 3,933 

20 - 24 168406 86167 82239 60 - 64 37493 17783 19710 

20 36,490 18,668 17,822 60 7,715 3,750 3,965 

21 29,590 15,153 14,437 61 7,734 3,704 4,030 

22 34,194 17,512 16,682 62 7,657 3,617 4,040 

23 34,697 17,751 16,946 63 7,425 3,474 3,951 

24 33,435 17,083 16,352 64 6,962 3,238 3,724 

25 - 29 139369 71051 68318 65 - 69 25822 11981 13841 

25 31,398 16,017 15,381 65 6,314 2,931 3,383 

26 29,238 14,894 14,344 66 5,595 2,594 3,001 

27 27,388 13,947 13,441 67 4,979 2,305 2,674 

28 26,067 13,283 12,784 68 4,559 2,116 2,443 

29 25,278 12,910 12,368 69 4,375 2,035 2,340 

30 - 34 117056 60352 56704 70 - 74 20086 9383 10703 

30 24,771 12,695 12,076 70 4,302 2,003 2,299 

31 24,146 12,436 11,710 71 4,267 1,990 2,277 

32 23,507 12,157 11,350 72 4,164 1,950 2,214 

33 22,768 11,787 10,981 73 3,902 1,824 2,078 

34 21,864 11,277 10,587 74 3,451 1,616 1,835 

35 - 39 94351 47594 46757 75 - 79 9368 4388 4980 

35 20,820 10,669 10,151 75 2,832 1,324 1,508 

36 19,772 10,039 9,733 76 2,197 1,028 1,169 

37 18,807 9,461 9,346 77 1,696 796 900 

38 17,883 8,933 8,950 78 1,382 648 734 

39 17,069 8,492 8,577 79 1,261 592 669 

80+ 8,051 3,613 4,438



2026 


hotu 


Sexu rua 

hotu 

Mane Feto 

Total 1,787,349 905,740 881,609 

0-4 258,434 131,936 126,498 40 - 44 77,884 38636 39248 

0 53,846 27,502 26,344 40 17,007 8,458 8,549 

1 52,210 26,643 25,567 41 16,248 8,065 8,183 

2 51,486 26,280 25,206 42 15,569 7,724 7,845 

3 50,878 25,974 24,904 43 14,907 7,387 7,520 

4 50,014 25,537 24,477 44 14,153 7,002 7,151 

5-9 237249 121201 116048 45 - 49 57185 28080 29105 

5 49,082 25,066 24,016 45 13,265 6,551 6,714 

6 48,175 24,606 23,569 46 12,307 6,056 6,251 

7 47,413 24,222 23,191 47 11,285 5,531 5,754 

8 46,682 23,852 22,830 48 10,401 5,081 5,320 

9 45,897 23,455 22,442 49 9,927 4,861 5,066 

10 - 14 217,134 111001 106133 50 - 54 54040 27209 26831 

10 45,079 23,041 22,038 50 9,964 4,917 5,047 

11 44,247 22,617 21,630 51 10,356 5,167 5,189 

12 43,406 22,190 21,216 52 10,924 5,511 5,413 

13 42,600 21,780 20,820 53 11,356 5,773 5,583 

14 41,802 21,373 20,429 54 11,440 5,841 5,599 

15 - 19 196877 100664 96213 55 - 59 46,662 23549 23113 

15 41,022 20,975 20,047 55 10,981 5,598 5,383 

16 40,198 20,553 19,645 56 10,154 5,157 4,997 

17 39,348 20,118 19,230 57 9,212 4,648 4,564 

18 38,542 19,705 18,837 58 8,439 4,233 4,206 

19 37,767 19,313 18,454 59 7,876 3,913 3,963 

20 - 24 171721 87842 83879 60 - 64 37558 17951 19607 

20 37,021 18,925 18,096 60 7,623 3,742 3,881 

21 36,417 18,623 17,794 61 7,564 3,664 3,900 

22 29,531 15,117 14,414 62 7,583 3,618 3,965 

23 34,124 17,469 16,655 63 7,508 3,534 3,974 

24 34,628 17,708 16,920 64 7,280 3,393 3,887 

25 - 29 147212 75044 72168 65 - 69 27579 12739 14840 

25 33,365 17,042 16,323 65 6,788 3,144 3,644 

26 31,331 15,979 15,352 66 6,121 2,828 3,293 

27 29,175 14,858 14,317 67 5,425 2,503 2,922 

28 27,329 13,913 13,416 68 4,825 2,223 2,602 

29 26,012 13,252 12,760 69 4,420 2,041 2,379 

30 - 34 120175 61821 58354 70 - 74 20014 9281 10733 

30 25,219 12,877 12,342 70 4,200 1,943 2,257 

31 24,710 12,661 12,049 71 4,091 1,893 2,198 

32 24,087 12,403 11,684 72 4,056 1,880 2,176 

33 23,448 12,125 11,323 73 3,958 1,842 2,116 

34 22,711 11,755 10,956 74 3,709 1,723 1,986 

35 - 39 98843 50212 48631 75 - 79 10693 4970 5723 

35 21,803 11,243 10,560 75 3,230 1,502 1,728 

36 20,755 10,633 10,122 76 2,607 1,210 1,397 

37 19,709 10,004 9,705 77 2,023 939 1,084 

38 18,749 9,429 9,320 78 1,561 727 834 

39 17,827 8,903 8,924 79 1,272 592 680 

80+ 8,089 3,604 4,485 

72 


APENDIXU



2027 


Sexu rua 

hotu 


Sexu rua 

hotu 

Mane Feto 

Total 1,832,170 928,326 903,844 

0-4 261,677 133,588 128,089 40 - 44 81,236 40357 40879 

0 54,671 27,924 26,747 40 17,764 8,868 8,896 

1 52,963 27,028 25,935 41 16,937 8,419 8,518 

2 51,917 26,498 25,419 42 16,182 8,028 8,154 

3 51,342 26,209 25,133 43 15,507 7,689 7,818 

4 50,784 25,929 24,855 44 14,846 7,353 7,493 

5-9 241121 123162 117959 45 - 49 61068 30023 31045 

5 49,955 25,508 24,447 45 14,083 6,962 7,121 

6 49,033 25,042 23,991 46 13,188 6,506 6,682 

7 48,130 24,584 23,546 47 12,238 6,016 6,222 

8 47,365 24,198 23,167 48 11,219 5,493 5,726 

9 46,638 23,830 22,808 49 10,340 5,046 5,294 

10 - 14 221,033 112977 108056 50 - 54 52093 25969 26124 

10 45,854 23,433 22,421 50 9,857 4,820 5,037 

11 45,040 23,019 22,021 51 9,880 4,867 5,013 

12 44,208 22,596 21,612 52 10,267 5,114 5,153 

13 43,368 22,169 21,199 53 10,830 5,454 5,376 

14 42,563 21,760 20,803 54 11,259 5,714 5,545 

15 - 19 200641 102562 98079 55 - 59 49,609 25103 24506 

15 41,755 21,345 20,410 55 11,318 5,767 5,551 

16 40,965 20,941 20,024 56 10,840 5,512 5,328 

17 40,141 20,519 19,622 57 10,024 5,078 4,946 

18 39,293 20,085 19,208 58 9,095 4,577 4,518 

19 38,487 19,672 18,815 59 8,332 4,169 4,163 

20 - 24 174527 89241 85286 60 - 64 37444 18064 19380 

20 37,704 19,274 18,430 60 7,750 3,838 3,912 

21 36,948 18,880 18,068 61 7,475 3,657 3,818 

22 36,344 18,578 17,766 62 7,418 3,580 3,838 

23 29,474 15,082 14,392 63 7,437 3,536 3,901 

24 34,057 17,427 16,630 64 7,364 3,453 3,911 

25 - 29 155502 79312 76190 65 - 69 29560 13620 15940 

25 34,557 17,666 16,891 65 7,101 3,296 3,805 

26 33,295 17,002 16,293 66 6,582 3,034 3,548 

27 31,265 15,941 15,324 67 5,936 2,729 3,207 

28 29,114 14,823 14,291 68 5,262 2,416 2,846 

29 27,271 13,880 13,391 69 4,679 2,145 2,534 

30 - 34 123181 63154 60027 70 - 74 19757 9094 10663 

30 25,954 13,220 12,734 70 4,246 1,950 2,296 

31 25,158 12,843 12,315 71 3,995 1,836 2,159 

32 24,649 12,627 12,022 72 3,893 1,790 2,103 

33 24,029 12,371 11,658 73 3,858 1,777 2,081 

34 23,391 12,093 11,298 74 3,765 1,741 2,024 

35 - 39 103414 52890 50524 75 - 79 12156 5606 6550 

35 22,648 11,720 10,928 75 3,474 1,603 1,871 

36 21,736 11,205 10,531 76 2,977 1,373 1,604 

37 20,691 10,598 10,093 77 2,403 1,107 1,296 

38 19,648 9,970 9,678 78 1,863 858 1,005 

39 18,691 9,397 9,294 79 1,439 665 774 

80+ 8,151 3,604 4,547 

73 


APENDIXU



2028 


Sexu rua 

hotu 


Sexu rua 

hotu 

Mane Feto 

Total 1,877,594 951,213 926,381 

0-4 264,914 135,237 129,677 40 - 44 84,750 42215 42535 

0 55,399 28,297 27,102 40 18,626 9,361 9,265 

1 53,810 27,461 26,349 41 17,692 8,827 8,865 

2 52,678 26,886 25,792 42 16,869 8,381 8,488 

3 51,775 26,428 25,347 43 16,118 7,992 8,126 

4 51,252 26,165 25,087 44 15,445 7,654 7,791 

5-9 245026 125143 119883 45 - 49 65213 32121 33092 

5 50,725 25,901 24,824 45 14,775 7,312 7,463 

6 49,909 25,485 24,424 46 14,002 6,915 7,087 

7 48,986 25,019 23,967 47 13,112 6,462 6,650 

8 48,086 24,562 23,524 48 12,169 5,976 6,193 

9 47,320 24,176 23,144 49 11,155 5,456 5,699 

10 - 14 224,914 114941 109973 50 - 54 50757 25053 25704 

10 46,596 23,808 22,788 50 10,268 5,004 5,264 

11 45,815 23,411 22,404 51 9,774 4,771 5,003 

12 45,002 22,998 22,004 52 9,797 4,818 4,979 

13 44,170 22,576 21,594 53 10,180 5,062 5,118 

14 43,331 22,148 21,183 54 10,738 5,398 5,340 

15 - 19 204447 104488 99959 55 - 59 51,899 26261 25638 

15 42,515 21,732 20,783 55 11,141 5,643 5,498 

16 41,699 21,311 20,388 56 11,176 5,680 5,496 

17 40,908 20,906 20,002 57 10,702 5,428 5,274 

18 40,085 20,486 19,599 58 9,899 5,002 4,897 

19 39,240 20,053 19,187 59 8,981 4,508 4,473 

20 - 24 178621 91277 87344 60 - 64 37706 18372 19334 

20 38,423 19,633 18,790 60 8,200 4,091 4,109 

21 37,631 19,228 18,403 61 7,601 3,751 3,850 

22 36,877 18,836 18,041 62 7,333 3,575 3,758 

23 36,273 18,534 17,739 63 7,277 3,499 3,778 

24 29,417 15,046 14,371 64 7,295 3,456 3,839 

25 - 29 161956 82667 79289 65 - 69 31324 14433 16891 

25 33,989 17,387 16,602 65 7,185 3,354 3,831 

26 34,486 17,625 16,861 66 6,890 3,183 3,707 

27 33,227 16,963 16,264 67 6,385 2,929 3,456 

28 31,201 15,904 15,297 68 5,759 2,635 3,124 

29 29,053 14,788 14,265 69 5,105 2,332 2,773 

30 - 34 126764 64776 61988 70 - 74 19721 9005 10716 

30 27,211 13,847 13,364 70 4,497 2,050 2,447 

31 25,892 13,185 12,707 71 4,043 1,845 2,198 

32 25,098 12,810 12,288 72 3,803 1,736 2,067 

33 24,591 12,595 11,996 73 3,705 1,693 2,012 

34 23,972 12,339 11,633 74 3,673 1,681 1,992 

35 - 39 107793 55406 52387 75 - 79 13417 6143 7274 

35 23,327 12,057 11,270 75 3,531 1,621 1,910 

36 22,579 11,681 10,898 76 3,204 1,467 1,737 

37 21,671 11,169 10,502 77 2,746 1,256 1,490 

38 20,628 10,562 10,066 78 2,216 1013 1,203 

39 19,588 9,937 9,651 79 1,720 786 934 

80+ 8,372 3,675 4,697 

74 


APENDIXU



75 


APENDIXU 

2029 


Sexu rua 

hotu 


Sexu rua 

hotu 

Mane Feto 

Total 1,923,430 974,304 949,126 

0-4 268,266 136,948 131,318 40 - 44 88,552 44305 44247 

0 55,948 28,578 27,370 40 19,520 9,898 9,622 

1 54,561 27,845 26,716 41 18,553 9,320 9,233 

2 53,531 27,322 26,209 42 17,622 8,787 8,835 

3 52,539 26,818 25,721 43 16,802 8,343 8,459 

4 51,687 26,385 25,302 44 16,055 7,957 8,098 

5-9 248722 127016 121706 45 - 49 69126 34100 35026 

5 51,195 26,137 25,058 45 15,371 7,611 7,760 

6 50,680 25,879 24,801 46 14,692 7,264 7,428 

7 49,863 25,462 24,401 47 13,924 6,869 7,055 

8 48,942 24,998 23,944 48 13,038 6,419 6,619 

9 48,042 24,540 23,502 49 12,101 5,937 6,164 

10 - 14 228,710 116863 111847 50 - 54 50764 24869 25895 

10 47,279 24,154 23,125 50 11,078 5,411 5,667 

11 46,556 23,786 22,770 51 10,182 4,953 5,229 

12 45,777 23,390 22,387 52 9,694 4,724 4,970 

13 44,965 22,978 21,987 53 9,715 4,769 4,946 

14 44,133 22,555 21,578 54 10,095 5,012 5,083 

15 - 19 208268 106420 101848 55 - 59 53,012 26759 26253 

15 43,284 22,120 21,164 55 10,626 5,330 5,296 

16 42,458 21,698 20,760 56 11,003 5,559 5,444 

17 41,643 21,277 20,366 57 11,038 5,596 5,442 

18 40,852 20,872 19,980 58 10,569 5,347 5,222 

19 40,031 20,453 19,578 59 9,776 4,927 4,849 

20 - 24 188097 96068 92029 60 - 64 38679 19008 19671 

20 39,176 20,014 19,162 60 8,840 4,424 4,416 

21 38,351 19,588 18,763 61 8,045 4,000 4,045 

22 37,559 19,183 18,376 62 7,458 3,667 3,791 

23 36,808 18,793 18,015 63 7,195 3,496 3,699 

24 36,203 18,490 17,713 64 7,141 3,421 3,720 

25 - 29 161995 82736 79259 65 - 69 32566 15046 17520 

25 29,360 15,012 14,348 65 7,118 3,358 3,760 

26 33,920 17,347 16,573 66 6,974 3,240 3,734 

27 34,417 17,585 16,832 67 6,687 3,074 3,613 

28 33,161 16,925 16,236 68 6,198 2,829 3,369 

29 31,137 15,867 15,270 69 5,589 2,545 3,044 

30 - 34 131543 67057 64486 70 - 74 20197 9161 11036 

30 28,991 14,753 14,238 70 4,910 2,230 2,680 

31 27,147 13,812 13,335 71 4,284 1,940 2,344 

32 25,831 13,151 12,680 72 3,851 1,746 2,105 

33 25,040 12,777 12,263 73 3,622 1,643 1,979 

34 24,534 12,564 11,970 74 3,530 1,602 1,928 

35 - 39 111850 57624 54226 75 - 79 14247 6473 7774 

35 23,908 12,303 11,605 75 3,446 1,566 1,880 

36 23,257 12,017 11,240 76 3,261 1,485 1,776 

37 22,512 11,643 10,869 77 2,958 1,344 1,614 

38 21,606 11,133 10,473 78 2,536 1150 1,386 

39 20,567 10,528 10,039 79 2,046 928 1,118 

80+ 8,836 3,851 4,985



76 


APENDIXU 

2030 


Sexu rua 

hotu 


Sexu rua 

hotu 

Mane Feto 

Total 1,969,587 997,552 972,035 

0-4 271,685 138,695 132,990 40 - 44 92,713 46676 46037 

0 56,415 28,817 27,598 40 20,497 10,488 10,009 

1 55,135 28,139 26,996 41 19,445 9,855 9,590 

2 54,288 27,709 26,579 42 18,480 9,279 9,201 

3 53,395 27,254 26,141 43 17,554 8,748 8,806 

4 52,452 26,776 25,676 44 16,737 8,306 8,431 

5-9 252137 128748 123389 45 - 49 72689 35892 36797 

5 51,633 26,359 25,274 45 15,979 7,913 8,066 

6 51,149 26,114 25,035 46 15,287 7,562 7,725 

7 50,637 25,858 24,779 47 14,609 7,216 7,393 

8 49,819 25,440 24,379 48 13,847 6,824 7,023 

9 48,899 24,977 23,922 49 12,967 6,377 6,590 

10 - 14 232,429 118743 113686 50 - 54 52353 25549 26804 

10 48,002 24,519 23,483 50 12,018 5,889 6,129 

11 47,240 24,132 23,108 51 10,987 5,357 5,630 

12 46,518 23,765 22,753 52 10,099 4,904 5,195 

13 45,740 23,369 22,371 53 9,614 4,677 4,937 

14 44,929 22,958 21,971 54 9,635 4,722 4,913 

15 - 19 212099 108358 103741 55 - 59 52,699 26461 26238 

15 44,084 22,526 21,558 55 9,992 4,950 5,042 

16 43,228 22,086 21,142 56 10,497 5,252 5,245 

17 42,402 21,664 20,738 57 10,868 5,477 5,391 

18 41,587 21,243 20,344 58 10,903 5,514 5,389 

19 40,798 20,839 19,959 59 10,439 5,268 5,171 

20 - 24 191579 97815 93764 60 - 64 40575 20079 20496 

20 39,968 20,414 19,554 60 9,625 4,836 4,789 

21 39,103 19,968 19,135 61 8,676 4,327 4,349 

22 38,279 19,543 18,736 62 7,894 3,911 3,983 

23 37,490 19,140 18,350 63 7,319 3,586 3,733 

24 36,739 18,750 17,989 64 7,061 3,419 3,642 

25 - 29 166733 85167 81566 65 - 69 33164 15404 17760 

25 36,134 18,448 17,686 65 6,972 3,326 3,646 

26 29,301 14,978 14,323 66 6,911 3,245 3,666 

27 33,855 17,309 16,546 67 6,770 3,130 3,640 

28 34,348 17,545 16,803 68 6,493 2,970 3,523 

29 33,095 16,887 16,208 69 6,018 2,733 3,285 

30 - 34 137836 70187 67649 70 - 74 21265 9593 11672 

30 31,072 15,830 15,242 70 5,378 2,435 2,943 

31 28,924 14,716 14,208 71 4,681 2,112 2,569 

32 27,085 13,777 13,308 72 4,083 1,837 2,246 

33 25,771 13,118 12,653 73 3,670 1,653 2,017 

34 24,984 12,746 12,238 74 3,453 1,556 1,897 

35 - 39 115485 59472 56013 75 - 79 14593 6577 8016 

35 24,470 12,528 11,942 75 3,315 1,493 1,822 

36 23,838 12,263 11,575 76 3,186 1,436 1,750 

37 23,188 11,978 11,210 77 3,013 1,361 1,652 

38 22,446 11,606 10,840 78 2,735 1,233 1,502 

39 21,543 11,097 10,446 79 2,344 1054 1,290 

80+ 9,553 4,136 5,417



77 


APENDIXU 

2040 


Sexu rua 

hotu 


Sexu rua 

hotu 

Mane Feto 

Total 2,462,381 1,245,431 1,216,950 

0-4 307,304 156,918 150,386 40 - 44 134,182 68099 66083 

0 63,709 32,555 31,154 40 30,333 15,410 14,923 

1 62,373 31,847 30,526 41 28,198 14,302 13,896 

2 61,303 31,299 30,004 42 26,362 13,363 12,999 

3 60,403 30,836 29,567 43 25,047 12,703 12,344 

4 59,516 30,381 29,135 44 24,242 12,321 11,921 

5-9 286,421 146213 140208 45 - 49 111302 56995 54307 

5 58,789 30,010 28,779 45 23,698 12,078 11,620 

6 58,102 29,660 28,442 46 23,030 11,788 11,242 

7 57,325 29,263 28,062 47 22,344 11,478 10,866 

8 56,529 28,857 27,672 48 21,577 11,086 10,491 

9 55,676 28,423 27,253 49 20,653 10,565 10,088 

10 - 14 268,110 136847 131263 50 - 54 87950 43836 44114 

10 54,941 28,047 26,894 50 19,592 9,945 9,647 

11 54,391 27,767 26,624 51 18,510 9,297 9,213 

12 53,762 27,438 26,324 52 17,524 8,711 8,813 

13 52,957 27,027 25,930 53 16,580 8,168 8,412 

14 52,059 26,568 25,491 54 15,744 7,715 8,029 

15 - 19 250043 127543 122500 55 - 59 67,254 32655 34599 

15 51,248 26,149 25,099 55 14,957 7,303 7,654 

16 50,746 25,888 24,858 56 14,219 6,929 7,290 

17 50,215 25,616 24,599 57 13,510 6,559 6,951 

18 49,381 25,182 24,199 58 12,726 6,157 6,569 

19 48,453 24,708 23,745 59 11,842 5,707 6,135 

20 - 24 229735 117062 112673 60 - 64 46608 22169 24439 

20 47,532 24,231 23,301 60 10,891 5,219 5,672 

21 46,734 23,821 22,913 61 9,866 4,698 5,168 

22 45,981 23,429 22,552 62 8,982 4,249 4,733 

23 45,163 23,006 22,157 63 8,467 4,006 4,461 

24 44,325 22,575 21,750 64 8,402 3,997 4,405 

25 - 29 208850 106321 102529 65 - 69 43907 21278 22629 

25 43,457 22,128 21,329 65 8,598 4,128 4,470 

26 42,591 21,684 20,907 66 8,892 4,305 4,587 

27 41,752 21,258 20,494 67 9,060 4,406 4,654 

28 40,924 20,829 20,095 68 8,938 4,355 4,583 

29 40,126 20,422 19,704 69 8,419 4,084 4,335 

30 - 34 188182 95780 92402 70 - 74 30541 14407 16134 

30 39,286 19,995 19,291 70 7,604 3,662 3,942 

31 38,422 19,556 18,866 71 6,672 3,178 3,494 

32 37,601 19,136 18,465 72 5,913 2,789 3,124 

33 36,810 18,738 18,072 73 5,340 2,483 2,857 

34 36,063 18,355 17,708 74 5,012 2,295 2,717 

35 - 39 163255 83165 80090 75 - 79 20895 9072 11823 

35 35,443 18,046 17,397 75 4,778 2,146 2,632 

36 28,713 14,638 14,075 76 4,533 1,994 2,539 

37 33,150 16,904 16,246 77 4,245 1,830 2,415 

38 33,601 17,117 16,484 78 3,893 1,655 2,238 

39 32,348 16,460 15,888 79 3,446 1,447 1,999 

80+ 17,842 7,071 10,771



78 

APENDIXU 

2050 


Sexu rua 

hotu 


Sexu rua 

hotu 

Mane Feto 

Total 3,016,469 1,523,239 1,493,230 

0-4 348,395 178,011 170,384 40 - 44 184,075 93363 90712 

0 71,868 36,742 35,126 40 38,529 19,550 18,979 

1 70,630 36,088 34,542 41 37,629 19,091 18,538 

2 69,587 35,551 34,036 42 36,782 18,653 18,129 

3 68,622 35,054 33,568 43 35,954 18,234 17,720 

4 67,688 34,576 33,112 44 35,181 17,835 17,346 

5-9 325623 166305 159318 45 - 49 158282 80187 78095 

5 66,857 34,149 32,708 45 34,511 17,495 17,016 

6 66,016 33,717 32,299 46 27,899 14,153 13,746 

7 65,108 33,254 31,854 47 32,146 16,301 15,845 

8 64,251 32,812 31,439 48 32,503 16,458 16,045 

9 63,391 32,373 31,018 49 31,223 15,780 15,443 

10 - 14 304,579 155477 149102 50 - 54 128280 64499 63781 

10 62,625 31,982 30,643 50 29,194 14,721 14,473 

11 61,802 31,551 30,251 51 27,040 13,598 13,442 

12 60,895 31,085 29,810 52 25,198 12,652 12,546 

13 60,056 30,651 29,405 53 23,850 11,973 11,877 

14 59,201 30,208 28,993 54 22,998 11,555 11,443 

15 - 19 284602 145118 139484 55 - 59 104,051 52482 51569 

15 58,464 29,826 28,638 55 22,384 11,266 11,118 

16 57,758 29,458 28,300 56 21,639 10,924 10,715 

17 56,957 29,043 27,914 57 20,882 10,565 10,317 

18 56,147 28,621 27,526 58 20,054 10,135 9,919 

19 55,276 28,170 27,106 59 19,092 9,592 9,500 

20 - 24 265634 135227 130407 60 - 64 79554 38738 40816 

20 54,511 27,772 26,739 60 17,993 8,956 9,037 

21 53,932 27,469 26,463 61 16,863 8,288 8,575 

22 53,265 27,113 26,152 62 15,839 7,687 8,152 

23 52,423 26,676 25,747 63 14,860 7,136 7,724 

24 51,503 26,197 25,306 64 13,999 6,671 7,328 

25 - 29 246983 125540 121443 65 - 69 57658 27043 30615 

25 50,661 25,761 24,900 65 13,151 6,230 6,921 

26 50,149 25,494 24,655 66 12,337 5,821 6,516 

27 49,602 25,214 24,388 67 11,569 5,423 6,146 

28 48,754 24,774 23,980 68 10,742 5,005 5,737 

29 47,817 24,297 23,520 69 9,859 4,564 5,295 

30 - 34 226497 115041 111456 70 - 74 36534 16534 20000 

30 46,888 23,817 23,071 70 8,905 4,087 4,818 

31 46,090 23,413 22,677 71 7,890 3,584 4,306 

32 45,332 23,024 22,308 72 7,018 3,156 3,862 

33 44,511 22,604 21,907 73 6,465 2,898 3,567 

34 43,676 22,183 21,493 74 6,256 2,809 3,447 

35 - 39 205361 104245 101116 75 - 79 29301 13264 16037 

35 42,795 21,728 21,067 75 6,205 2,805 3,400 

36 41,911 21,278 20,633 76 6,168 2,800 3,368 

37 41,053 20,841 20,212 77 6,038 2,745 3,293 

38 40,209 20,407 19,802 78 5,718 2,592 3,126 

39 39,393 19,991 19,402 79 5,172 2,322 2,850 

80+ 31,060 12,165 18,895

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