Sveriges framtida befolkning 2012–2060

The future population of Sweden 2012–2060 In English
In English
Summary
Sweden's population has increased steadily since the first census
was taken in the middle of the 1700s. At that time the population of
Sweden was 1.8 million. In 1800 the population had reached 2.3
million, and by 1900 it had more than doubled at 5.1 million. The
population increased to almost 9.5 million in 2011.
This report presents a forecast of population changes 2012-2060, a
period of nearly 50 years. The population is assumed to increase by
roughly 2.1 million, or 22 percent, amounting to 11.6 million. This is
a somewhat lower rate of increase than Sweden had during the most
recent 50 years when the population increased by 25 percent.
The expected increase of the population is both due to an
assumption of more births than deaths, and of a higher immigration
than emigration. In recent years the significant immigration has
been the largest contributing factor to population growth. This trend
is expected to continue in the near future. During the 2020s the
population increase will largely be driven by the significant birth
surplus. This period will mark the coming of childbearing ages for
the many people who were born in the 1990s.
A somewhat changed population structure is expected in the future.
The largest change is that the population will have another age
composition. The number of older persons is expected to increase.
19 percent of the population was age 65 or older in 2011. At the end
of the forecast period 25 percent of the population is expected to be
in this age group. In 2011 children and young people aged 0-19
comprised 23 percent of the population. This proportion is expected
to remain at around the same level. Even though the number of
people in working ages (aged 20-64) will increase somewhat, the
proportion of these people in the population will decrease
somewhat. 58 percent of the population was in this age group in
2011. This figure is estimated to drop to 52 percent in 2060.
As a result of the changed age structure, the demographic
dependency ratio will increase from 0.71 in 2011 to 0.92 in 2060. This
is a measurement that calculates the relationship between the
number of people in the ages 20-64, and the total of the population
that lies outside of this age interval. According to this forecast, for
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