Sveriges framtida befolkning 2012–2060

In English The future population of Sweden 2012–2060
every person aged 20-64 there will be 0.92 younger and older
persons.
In recent decades, the increased share of foreign-born persons is
another change in the composition in the population. 4 percent of
the population in 1960 was born abroad. The corresponding figure
in 2011 was 15 percent. According to the forecast, this percentage is
expected to increase somewhat in the next few years, but will later
stabilise at a level around 18 percent.
Yet another expected change is that the number of men will exceed
the number of women. Historically up until now, there have been
somewhat more women than men in the population. In 2011 there
were 29 000 more women than men. The change towards more men
is expected to occur from 2017 onwards. By the end of the forecast
period it is estimated that there will be more than 120 000 more men
than women.
The forecast about future population trends is based on assumptions
about development of childbearing, immigration and emigration as
well as mortality. In the assumption about childbearing, an
assumption is made about how many children women will have on
average in the future. In 2011 the total fertility rate was at a level of
1.90 children per woman. This is also the level that is assumed to
apply in the long term.
Concerning migration, it is assumed that immigration will be
greater than emigration during the entire forecast period. Net
migration is largest at the beginning of the forecast period. This is a
result of the assumption about a continued significant immigration
in the next few years. This is largely due to the assessment by the
Swedish Migration Board about increased immigration of refugees
and family members. In the next few years net migration is expected
to amount to between 50 000 and 60 000 per year. A level of around
17 000 is expected in the long term. This will be the net result of an
immigration of around 85 000 and an emigration of around 68 000.
In the assumption about mortality trends, mortality will continue to
decrease. Other factors play a part, among them reduced smoking
and medical developments. The life expectancy for women in the
forecast is predicted to rise from nearly 84 years in 2011 to almost 89
years in 2060. Men's life expectancy is expected to increase from
nearly 80 to neraly 87 years during the same period. The
assumptions imply a reduced difference between the sexes in the
long term.
260 Statistics Sweden