Innovation mot infektion - Creative Antibiotics Sweden AB

Innehållsförteckning
Investeringssammanfattning........................................................................................................... 4
En ny typ antibiotika – mer specifik behandling ................................................................................... 4
Särläkemedelssatus – snabb väg till marknaden .................................................................................. 4
Enorma problem med antibiotikaresistens ........................................................................................... 6
Borde vara öppet mål för läkemedelsbolagen ...................................................................................... 8
Myndigheterna börjar vakna .............................................................................................................. 8
Perfekt timing för innovation ............................................................................................................. 9
SWOT-analys ...............................................................................................................................10
Finansiella prognoser .................................................................................................................... 11
Bolagets pipeline och tänkt utvecklingsplan ........................................................................................11
Nyemission ger bolaget en styrka .....................................................................................................12
Värdering ....................................................................................................................................... 13
Avkastningskrav ..........................................................................................................................13
Projekten – Antaganden för värdering ...............................................................................................14
Projekt CA_BW ............................................................................................................................14
Projekt CA_ST .............................................................................................................................15
Projekt CA_DI ..............................................................................................................................15
Framtidens prissättning av antibiotika ...............................................................................................16
Creative Antiviotics – Känslighetsanalys ..........................................................................................18
Avtal-och förvärv inom antibiotikaforskningen ....................................................................................19
Scenarioanalys ...............................................................................................................................20
Aktiekursscenario vid olika utfall för bolagets teknologi ........................................................................20
En rabatt vida överstigande nivån försektorn ......................................................................................21
Fundamental värderingsrabatt inom biotekniksektorn .......................................................................21
Bolagsbeskrivning ......................................................................................................................... 22
Tänka nytt – tänka stort ..................................................................................................................22
”There is a new sheriff in town” ........................................................................................................23
Gammal hederlig kemi på modet igen ...............................................................................................23
Kostnadseffektiv forskning ...............................................................................................................24
Aktieägare .....................................................................................................................................24
En klassisk affärsmodell ...................................................................................................................25
Historik och uppnådda milstolpar ......................................................................................................26
Teknologiplattform ........................................................................................................................ 27
Fokus på virulenssystemen ..............................................................................................................28
Virulensblockarna har effekt på många bakterier ................................................................................31
Effekt på antibiotikaresistenta bakteristammar ...................................................................................32
Vald screeningprocess ger säkrare resultat .........................................................................................33
Effekt på resistenutveckling .............................................................................................................34
Teknologins eventuella svagheter .....................................................................................................34
Bolagets projekt ............................................................................................................................ 36
Projekt svåra brännskador ...............................................................................................................36
Bakgrund, incidens och bolagets lösning .........................................................................................36
Incidens ......................................................................................................................................37
Vad bolaget kan erbjuda ...............................................................................................................37
Brännskadeindikationen ett smart val .............................................................................................38
Projekt diarrésjukdomar ..................................................................................................................39
Bakgrund, incidens och bolagets lösning .........................................................................................39
Risken att drabbas av turistdiarré ..................................................................................................40
Avtal med Syngene ......................................................................................................................41
Syngene kommer förmodligen att vidarelicensiera produkten ............................................................42
Syngene jobbar på mot val av kandidatmolekyl (CD) ........................................................................42
Vem är Syngene? .........................................................................................................................42
Projekt sexuellt överförbara sjukdomar – Klamydia .............................................................................44
Bakgrund, incidens och bolagets lösning .........................................................................................44
Utveckling bedrivs i samarbete med amerikanskt universitet .............................................................45
Marknaden för antibiotika ............................................................................................................. 48
Få nya läkemedel - myndigheterna ställer högre krav ..........................................................................50
Pfizer befäster sin ställning inom antibiotikaområdet ...........................................................................51
Färre deltagare ger färre läkemedel ..................................................................................................51
Det finns ljuspunkter – en fallstudie ..................................................................................................53
Nya antibiotika – en fantastisk möjlighet ...................................................................................... 55
Det borde finnas större intresse för antibiotika ...................................................................................55
Många storsäljare tappar patent de närmaste åren .............................................................................56
Mycket som puttrar i forskargrytorna världen över… ............................................................................58
…även inom antivirulens… ................................................................................................................58
…och produkt finns redan på marknaden ...........................................................................................60
Appendix 1: Ägare ......................................................................................................................... 62
Appendix 2 Nyckelpersoner ........................................................................................................... 63
Appendix 3 Partners ...................................................................................................................... 65
Appendix 4 Patent ......................................................................................................................... 67
Appendix 5 Antivirulens som läkemedelskandidat – hur stort är intresset?................................... 68
Appendix 6 – Bakterier .................................................................................................................. 71
Appendix 7 - Antibiotika ................................................................................................................ 73
Appendix 8 – Antibiotikaresistens ................................................................................................. 75
Appendix 9 Avkastningskrav ......................................................................................................... 76
Sammanfattning Redeye Rating .................................................................................................... 77