KLIMAPLAN GULBORG- SUND KOMMUNE

SCENARIEANALYSE
INDHOLD
1. INDLEDNING.........................................................................................................................................4
2. RAMMEBETINGELSER ......................................................................................................................4
2.1 NATIONAL KLIMA- OG ENERGIPOLITIK....................................................................................................4
2.2 INTERNATIONAL KLIMA- OG ENERGIPOLITIK...........................................................................................5
3. BASELINE...............................................................................................................................................7
3.1 BEFOLKNINGSTILVÆKST.........................................................................................................................7
3.2 VARMEFORSYNING .................................................................................................................................7
3.3 ELFORSYNING.........................................................................................................................................7
3.4 ENERGIFORBRUG ....................................................................................................................................8
3.5 PROCESENERGI/INDUSTRIVIRKSOMHEDER ............................................................................................11
3.6 TRANSPORT ..........................................................................................................................................11
3.7 LANDBRUG ...........................................................................................................................................14
3.8 RESULTATER AF BASELINESCENARIET..................................................................................................14
4. VARMEFORSYNING..........................................................................................................................17
4.1 FJERNVARME........................................................................................................................................17
4.2 INDIVIDUEL FORSYNING - UDFASNING AF EL- OG OLIEOPVARMNING....................................................18
4.3 EFFEKTVURDERING ..............................................................................................................................18
5. ELFORSYNING....................................................................................................................................19
5.1 VINDENERGI .........................................................................................................................................19
5.2 SOLENERGI ...........................................................................................................................................22
5.3 SELVFORSYNING...................................................................................................................................22
6. ENERGIBESPARELSER ....................................................................................................................22
6.1 DRIVKRÆFTER OG ADFÆRDSÆNDRINGER .............................................................................................23
6.2 VIRKEMIDLER.......................................................................................................................................23
6.3 ENERGISPAREPOTENTIALE....................................................................................................................25
6.4 FREMSKRIVNING AF ENERGIBESPARELSESSCENARIUM .........................................................................29
7. TRANSPORT ........................................................................................................................................30
7.1 REDUKTION AF PERSONTRANSPORT......................................................................................................32
7.2 OMLÆGNING AF PERSONTRANSPORT TIL ANDRE TRANSPORTSEGMENTER ............................................32
7.3 EFFEKTIVISERING AF PERSONTRANSPORT.............................................................................................36
7.4 VARETRANSPORT .................................................................................................................................40
7.5 JURIDISKE ASPEKTER AF TRANSPORTREGULERING................................................................................41
7.6 FREMSKRIVNING AF TRANSPORTSCENARIUM........................................................................................42
8. LANDBRUG ..........................................................................................................................................44
8.1 BIOGASANLÆG .....................................................................................................................................44
8.2 FODERMØNSTRE ...................................................................................................................................44
8.3 EFTERAFGRØDER..................................................................................................................................45
8.4 FREMSKRIVNING AF LANDBRUGSSCENARIUM.......................................................................................45
9. KOMMUNEN SOM VIRKSOMHED.................................................................................................46
2