Hydro-‐political Baseline of the Upper Jordan River - Ibrahim Abd El Al

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1320 km2, noting that “recharge to the Dan stream generates from a big part of the Anti-‐ Lebanon/Hermon range (actually laying in Lebanon and Syria)”, 10 though the lack of rainfall data compromises the accuracy of the figure. By way of comparison, the author estimates the subsurface catchment area of the Banias at only about 520km2, 11 while a hydro-‐ chemical estimate for the Hasbani has not yet been undertaken. As such, the recharge areas for all of the major springs in the Upper Jordan River are transboundary. The groundwater flowing across the Israeli border from Lebanon has been estimated from 170 MCM/y (Merheb 2010: 40) to 200-‐210 MCM/y (Comair 2009: 242). Yet the hydro-‐chemical modelling and analysis suggests that the bulk of the base flow of the Liddan River (241-‐249 MCM/y) derives from Lebanon and Syria. Given the likely hydraulic inter-‐connectedness of the catchment areas, it further seems probable that groundwater originating in Lebanon also feeds the base-‐flows of the Banias (80 MCM/y) (from Table 3.3), and of course the Wazzani (64 MCM/y). Thus the total Lebanon-‐Israel transboundary groundwater flows could be very roughly estimated at a large percentage of the entire base flows -‐ say 250 to 350 MCM/y (which is close to estimates made by Najem (2011, pers.comm)). The figure is subject, of course, to significant uncertainty, given the absence of reliable precipitation data, the extent of the groundwater recharge area, flow and percolation coefficients. 3.3.2 A side note on Litani-‐Hasbani hydrogeological connections There has been much speculation but very little informed debate about the hydraulic link between the Litani and Hasbani rivers through the geology of the mountain range that separates them. The hydropolitical implication of the existence of such a link is that the Litani River itself would be considered part of the Jordan River Basin, and hence an international transboundary (not strictly a Lebanese) river. This study has not sought to contribute to the debate, but has broached it tangentially. It has found no hydrogeological essays to establish the assertion, either by the Lebanese authorities or by the Israeli army during their 22 year occupation of the area. The possibility of a hydraulic link was first asserted by Kolars (1992: 25), who suggests unaccounted Litani flows be attributed to unaccounted for Wazzani flows. The possibility is also asserted in Medzini and Wolf (2004) through a cursory exploration of an association between Hasbani flows and the water levels of Lake of Qara’oun. The idea of a hydraulic connection is refuted by Rimmer (2011, pers.comm.), who asserts both that the Hermon basin alone is large enough to supply the measured flows of the 10 The rough location of the origin of the groundwater flows is confirmed by Rimmer (2011, pers.comm). Similarly, Kolars (1992: 24) asserts that the Dan receives “practically all of its flows [which he counts at 239 MCM/y] from unknown areas outside of its basin”. 11 Comair estimates the exposed karst area at 400km2, of which 330km2 are within Lebanese territories (Comair 2009,p. 243). 50
Hasbani, and that the Litani cannot in any case be a contributing river since its flows are below the level of the Hasbani, at the nearest relative region. 12 Establishing an accurate reading of the topic is of significant geopolitical importance, and would require both a detailed hydrogeological investigation as well as a legal analysis of any such implications (particularly in light of the 2008 Draft Aquifer Articles, as discussed in Section 8). 3.4 Land use The level of poverty in the Hasbani region is amongst the highest in Lebanon. Long-‐existing socio-‐economic imbalances between Hasbani and the economic centre (Beirut) or coastal areas have only been entrenched by the Israeli invasion and occupation period. A nation-‐ wide survey of living standards emphasises the continued dis-‐connect between the region and the rest of the country, noting that there has been “no marked change in the education field, nor in the index of income-‐related indicators, where the deprivation percentage remained stable at 62% of households. In essence, this region seems to resist social or economic mobility, and is unaffected by what impacts the other regions, negatively and positively. It is a sub-‐region that is stable, with high levels of deprivation” 13 (MOSA-‐UNDP 2007: 58). Estimates of the Lebanese population living within the Hasbani region (which includes the Marj el Khowkh) in Lebanon varies from 95,000 to 170,000 (UNDP 1995, in GOL 2002) with the most reliable estimate likely 135,000 14 (MEDA 2003, CAS 2004). The large variability in the estimated population size reflects not only poor data quality, but the high mobility of the residents. As jobs are scarce in the area, employment-‐related seasonal migration is common. Individuals and entire families often spend the week or winter working in larger coastal cities and return on weekends or during the summer months. This compares with the roughly 1.1 M residents of the Lake of Tiberias district in Israel, who are generally less transient. As Table 3.4 (and the landuse map (Figure C.4 in Annex C) show, olives are the main crop, and grow alongside legumes and vegetables. The main irrigated crops are watermelon and melon, as well as cucumbers, tomatoes, squash and eggplants, strawberries and alfalfa. About 60% of local production of melons is planned to derive from the service area of the projected Ibl al Saqi Dam. Winter rainfed farming includes potatoes, wheat, barley, and lentils (ROL 2008, Merheb 2010). An estimated 30,000 goats and 3,000 cows are held in the area, while fruit orchards (peach, nectarine) are less common than in the rest of Lebanon 12 The elevation of the Litani River at its bend near Deir Mimas is about 235 m ASL, while the elevation of the Hasbani near the Lebanon-‐Israel border is about 290m ASL. 13 For a discussion of Lebanese political economy, regional development and the South, see Gates (1998), Soueid and Sanbar (2000), Picard (2002), Allès (2007) Verdeil et. al. (2007) . 14 Results are derived from average household size from the MOSA and number of primary housing unit, cazas Rachaya, Marjayoun, Hasbaya. 51
Page 1 and 2: Hydro-‐political Baseline of th
Page 3 and 4: Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page 5 and 6: 8 THE HYDROPOLITICAL BASELINE 126 8
Page 7 and 8: Tables Table 2.1. Estimates of surf
Page 9 and 10: Preface This study could not have b
Page 11 and 12: control of the flows was assured fo
Page 13 and 14: MILITARY/ POLITICAL EVENTS 1916 192
Page 15 and 16: Springs in 2002, the prominence of
Page 17 and 18: 6, Lebanese narratives in support o
Page 19 and 20: 2. Snapshot of the Upper Jordan 2.1
Page 21 and 22: Wazzani Springs Hasbani River Huleh
Page 23 and 24: The religious significance of Bania
Page 25 and 26: Each shift in borders has resulted
Page 27 and 28: The border created by the French-
Page 29 and 30: Hydro-‐hegemony in Upper Jordan
Page 31 and 32: Figure 2.7 Institutional arrangemen
Page 33 and 34: master plans, and continues to take
Page 35 and 36: Water Production Water Allocation T
Page 37 and 38: (Hartman 2008). The north-‐west
Page 39 and 40: Mediterranean Sea Dardana Spring A
Page 41 and 42: and placed just downstream of the s
Page 43 and 44: Hasbani Liddan Banias Figure 3.5 Da
Page 45 and 46: Hasbani Liddan Banias Figure 3.6 An
Page 47 and 48: The aquifer is composed primarily o
Page 49: 25 km wide. It is the highest mount
Page 53 and 54: 3.5 Water abstractions 3.5.1 Water
Page 55 and 56: Groundwater abstractions within the
Page 57 and 58: PART B. ANALYSIS 4. Hydropolitical
Page 59 and 60: The Ottoman authorities also made a
Page 61 and 62: • to agree to construction works
Page 63 and 64: Figure 4.3 Hiorth’s suggested pla
Page 65 and 66: Figure 4.4 Israeli Water “Project
Page 67 and 68: The break-‐down of the talks me
Page 69 and 70: The 1967 territorial conquest marke
Page 71 and 72: In any case, the debilitation of th
Page 73 and 74: Considered alongside the significan
Page 75 and 76: Zeitoun (2007: Fig 4.5) shows how a
Page 77 and 78: The representatives of the European
Page 79 and 80: 4.5.3 Ghajar “Many people are foc
Page 81 and 82: 5. Wars and Water This section appl
Page 83 and 84: The very extensive damages to water
Page 85 and 86: 5.4 Water and War in Lebanon during
Page 87 and 88: Item Area Comments Water Reservoirs
Page 89 and 90: The total cost of damages to water
Page 91 and 92: Figure 5.2 Water reservoirs in Leba
Page 93 and 94: those water pumping stations” (Mu
Page 95: Assi River, 43 where an estimated 3
Page 98 and 99: 6. Upper Jordan Narratives and Disc
Page 100 and 101:
6.1.2 IWL Narrative: International
Page 102 and 103:
agreement is essential in order tha
Page 104 and 105:
the Jordan and all its tributaries
Page 106 and 107:
High-‐level state interests ris
Page 108 and 109:
either the lingering effects of lon
Page 110 and 111:
7. The Struggle for Control of the
Page 112 and 113:
As such, links between control over
Page 114 and 115:
Figure 7.3 Relative control over su
Page 116 and 117:
MILITARY/ POLITICAL EVENTS 1916 Zio
Page 118 and 119:
een planned since the days of Ibrah
Page 120 and 121:
“Consequently, water disputes mus
Page 122 and 123:
1948 - 1967: no hegemon (control co
Page 124 and 125:
The extensive damages to water infr
Page 126 and 127:
8. The Hydropolitical Baseline The
Page 128 and 129:
8.2 Interests and Power in the Uppe
Page 130 and 131:
Springs are located just inside the
Page 132 and 133:
Water resources and water infrastru
Page 134 and 135:
River flows may come to more closel
Page 136 and 137:
conflicts between the political ent
Page 138 and 139:
Brielmann, Heike (2008) Recharge an
Page 140 and 141:
FNA (1922) Concession du Houle. Fre
Page 142 and 143:
Jarvis, Todd, Mark Giordano, Shammy
Page 144 and 145:
Nembrini, Pier Giorgio (2002a) Kabu
Page 146:
Wolf, Aaron T. (1995) Hydropolitics
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Hydro-‐political Baseline of the Upper Jordan River - Ibrahim Abd El Al

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