1 A n n u a l R e p o r t 2 0 0 7 Management Business Review Management from left to right: Ligia Sandoval Retail Division Manager Oscar Villaseca Credit Consultant Jana Donath Finance Division Manager Janet Pacheco Deputy General Manager Pedro Arriola General Manager Monica Flores IT Manager Edwin Andrade Risk Manager Alexandra Carvajal Operations Division Manager
Political and Economic Environment <strong>2007</strong> saw significant changes in Ecuador’s key macroeconomic indicators, due in large measure to the fact that a new government came to power and made proposals for far-reaching changes, creating considerable uncertainty. The GDP growth rate, estimated at less than 3%, was one of the lowest in Latin America and well below the 3.9% recorded in 2006, providing clear evidence of an economic slowdown that was attributable to the highly unstable political environment, and to the effects of significant changes made to the legal and regulatory framework for business. Oil prices remained high throughout the year, allowing the new government to maintain its policy of increasing subsidies as part of its overall political and economic strategy. The government expanded subsidies to cover a range of sectors, despite the lack of any firm basis for this in the medium term. Oil exports accounted for 55% of the country’s total exports and provided more than 30% of the national budget. Despite rising international prices, the volume of oil production fell, due primarily to a lack of investment as a result of changing government policies towards this sector. However, other productive activities made an important contribution to the economy, together with the flow of remittances from migrants, which continues to grow every year and amounted to almost USD 3 billion in <strong>2007</strong>. The performance of key macroeconomic indicators in <strong>2007</strong> can be summarised as follows: • There was a significant increase in the price of some basic goods towards the end of year, but the annual inflation rate was 3.3%, an acceptable level for a dollarised economy. • Tax receipts grew steadily, exceeding projections. • The country risk indicator (EMBI 1 ) remained at high levels – around 600 points. However, the government kept all of the commitments it 1 EMBI = JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index M a n a g e m e n t B u s i n e s s R e v i e w 1 had made in terms of economic-policy measures, and this contributed to stability. • The export sector is expected to face certain problems given that negotiations with the United States on a free trade treaty were broken off, and because the programme of preferential tariffs for exports to the US was not renewed. This latter point, together with instability resulting from signficaint changes to the legal framework and the process of drawing up a new political constitution, made businesspeople reluctant to invest. The political situation continued to be characterised by instability, since <strong>2007</strong> was a year of transition. Capitalising on the failures of the traditional parties and the advantages of a favourable political environment in Latin America in which the majority of the countries in the region have left-of-centre governments, a new political movement assumed power in Ecuador. As a result, more power was concentrated in the hands of the new president, who is promoting significant state intervention in the economy. A Constituent Assembly was convened, and the members took their seats at the end of November, with supporters of the government clearly in the majority. This assembly, assuming “full powers”, took control of the legislative process and annulled the actions of the National Congress, the country’s parliament. In 2008, the government will likely seek to consolidate its position and implement its political and economic strategy, which will probably lead to conflict at many levels arising from the passage of controversial legislation such as the planned reforms of the tax code and the financial system.