World Mineral Production - NERC Open Research Archive - Natural ...
World Mineral Production - NERC Open Research Archive - Natural ...
World Mineral Production - NERC Open Research Archive - Natural ...
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US$/lb<br />
160<br />
140<br />
120<br />
100<br />
80<br />
60<br />
40<br />
20<br />
0<br />
1988<br />
1989<br />
1990<br />
Source: Industry reports<br />
1991<br />
increase in production to more than 5 000 tonnes. Since 2002,<br />
production in Kazakhstan increased by 89 per cent.<br />
Other significant producing countries include Russia, Niger,<br />
Namibia, USA and Uzbekistan. Russia’s production levels<br />
dropped in 2006 compared to 2005 and they were overtaken<br />
by production in Niger, which has risen by 12 per cent since<br />
2002. Namibia’s production has fallen for the past two years;<br />
however, this is expected to change in 2007 due to the opening<br />
of a new mine. <strong>Production</strong> in the USA has risen over the past<br />
four years, reversing a long term decline in uranium mining<br />
but this is still far short of the historical production levels from<br />
the 1970s. Uzbekistan saw a slight reduction in production in<br />
2006, but previously mine output increased by 41 per cent<br />
between 2002 and 2005.<br />
Prices<br />
Over 80 per cent of uranium is sold under long-term contracts<br />
(three to seven year terms), however, a spot market has been<br />
in existence for several years and this is frequently referred to<br />
when negotiating prices for long-term contracts. From 1988 to<br />
2004 spot market prices were very low, rising to a mere<br />
US$20/lb by the end of 2004. Since then, however, they have<br />
risen sharply reaching a height of US$138/lb in June 2007.<br />
This was followed by an equally sharp fall in the latter part of<br />
2007, before stabilising at around US$90/lb at the end of the<br />
year.<br />
The long-term industry average price has risen more slowly,<br />
but still significantly, from a low of just over US$9/lb in 2000<br />
to around US$95.00 at the end of 2007.<br />
Demand for uranium, for electricity generation, continues to<br />
be much higher than current mine production levels, with the<br />
shortfall being supplied by reprocessing, stockpiles or the<br />
conversion of weapons-grade uranium into fuel for power<br />
stations. Concerns over continuity of supply resulted in the<br />
increase in prices during the first part of the year. This was<br />
due in part to an increase in the number of nuclear reactors<br />
proposed or planned as a result of current international efforts<br />
to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. However, part of the<br />
increase during mid-2007 was probably caused by speculation<br />
1992<br />
1993<br />
1994<br />
Uranium Price Trends<br />
1995<br />
1996<br />
1997<br />
1998<br />
1999<br />
2000<br />
2001<br />
Spot Price Long-term Price<br />
2002<br />
in the market. During the year, market speculators withdrew<br />
their interest and the concerns over security of supply in the<br />
near-term were relaxed, which both contributed to a price fall.<br />
Industry events in 2007<br />
2003<br />
March saw the first shipment of yellowcake (uranium oxide<br />
U3O 8) from the new Langer Heinrich Mine in Namibia.<br />
Langer Heinrich started production in late 2006 and is the first<br />
new uranium mine in the world for a decade, commissioned<br />
by Paladin Resources Ltd in 2002. Although commissioning<br />
difficulties reduced the production for 2007 from the<br />
2.6 million lbs per year forecast, the mine is expected to<br />
increase production during 2008 (Lawson, 2007a; Mining<br />
Magazine, 2007; Haycock, 2007a; Murray, R, 2007).<br />
Namibia’s other uranium mine, Rössing, which has been<br />
operating since the 1970s, announced this year that an<br />
investment of US$112 million would ensure that the life of the<br />
mine will be extended from 2016 to 2021. It is also expected<br />
to increase output by 12.5 per cent in 2008 (Mineweb, 2007;<br />
Mining Journal, 2007a).<br />
Also in Africa, the strong uranium price has encouraged<br />
significant exploration in Malawi, Zambia and Botswana, as<br />
well as at other locations in Namibia. Paladin Resources Ltd<br />
has successfully resolved the various concerns raised by six<br />
Civil Society Organisations regarding its proposed uranium<br />
mine at Kayelekera in Malawi. The mine is due to come on<br />
stream towards the end of 2008 or early 2009 (Jomo, 2007).<br />
The world’s largest uranium mining company, Cameco, has<br />
experienced a number of setbacks in 2007. Their developing<br />
mine, at Cigar Lake in Canada, experienced a rock fall and<br />
flooding in October 2006 and remediation has proved to be<br />
difficult, resulting in a delay to production start up into 2011<br />
(Kosich, 2007a; Lawson, 2007b; Mining Journal, 2007b). A<br />
problem of water inflow into the Rabbit Lake mine in<br />
November caused production to be suspended, although this<br />
was quickly rectified and the mine was back in production by<br />
the end of the year (Kosich, 2007b). Despite these difficulties,<br />
Cameco is predicted to increase revenue when their final 2007<br />
2004<br />
2005<br />
2006<br />
2007<br />
95