World Mineral Production - NERC Open Research Archive - Natural ...
World Mineral Production - NERC Open Research Archive - Natural ...
World Mineral Production - NERC Open Research Archive - Natural ...
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US$/tonne<br />
10000<br />
9000<br />
8000<br />
7000<br />
6000<br />
5000<br />
4000<br />
Jan-2006<br />
Feb-2006<br />
Mar-2006<br />
Apr-2006<br />
May the London Metal Exchange (LME) spot price reached a<br />
record-high of US$8780 tonne, with an average monthly price<br />
of US$8044 tonne. The deficit in the availability of refined<br />
copper experienced during the previous three years persisted<br />
into 2006. This resulted in tight supply and critically low<br />
exchange levels, amounting to less than three days global<br />
consumption at times. The supply – demand imbalance<br />
ensured prices reacted strongly to market developments<br />
resulting in considerable volatility and price spikes. Higher<br />
metal prices resulted in increased speculative demand for<br />
copper as an investment. Global mine production in 2006 was<br />
lower than expected as a result of production problems and<br />
labour disputes in key copper-producing countries. By the end<br />
of 2006, copper prices had fallen considerably from the record<br />
highs in May of that year. This reflected moderation in<br />
demand largely resulting from consumers drawing on their<br />
own stocks, recovery of global mine output from disruptions<br />
earlier in the year, and growing exchange inventories.<br />
The downward price trend in the second half of 2006<br />
continued into 2007 with prices falling below US$5500 tonne<br />
in early February. This resulted from uncertainty in the US<br />
construction market and a failure of Chinese refined copper<br />
imports to return to expected levels. Prices subsequently began<br />
to rise as LME inventories declined due to increasing Chinese<br />
imports of refined copper. Prices rose strongly during March<br />
and April 2007 in response to increasing Chinese demand.<br />
Prices remained high in the first half of May due to strikes in<br />
Peru and flooding in Argentina, reducing shipments and<br />
lowering inventories. Prices became more volatile in the<br />
second half of May in response to labour disputes, apparently<br />
adequate Chinese inventories and news relating to US interest<br />
rates. Labour conflicts maintained prices during early August,<br />
followed by a considerable downturn in mid-August in<br />
response to financial uncertainty associated with the US<br />
subprime mortgage crisis. Prices recovered as central banks<br />
intervened to help the global financial system and labour<br />
problems in Peru pushed copper to its highest annual price of<br />
US$8300 tonne in October 2007. In mid-October prices began<br />
to fall reaching a low of US$6270 tonne in December as<br />
concerns over the global economic outlook resurfaced, which<br />
led to uncertainty in copper demand from industrialised<br />
May-2006<br />
Copper Price Trend<br />
Copper cash LME daily official price. Source: Metal Bulletin, 2008<br />
Jun-2006<br />
Jul-2006<br />
Aug-2006<br />
Sep-2006<br />
Oct-2006<br />
Nov-2006<br />
Dec-2006<br />
Jan-2007<br />
Feb-2007<br />
Mar-2007<br />
Apr-2007<br />
May-2007<br />
Jun-2007<br />
Jul-2007<br />
Aug-2007<br />
countries. News of declining copper imports into China during<br />
October also influenced the copper price during this period<br />
(Hinde, 2007). Despite this, the average annual price of copper<br />
on the LME was 5.9 per cent higher in 2007 than in 2006, at<br />
US$7100 tonne.<br />
Industry events in 2007<br />
Following on from 2006, strikes and industrial disputes<br />
continued to affect copper production in 2007. In April<br />
production at the Grasberg copper-gold deposit, one of the<br />
world’s largest copper mines, was halted by workers striking<br />
over pay conditions (Mortished, 2007). Grupo Mexico, the<br />
world’s fourth largest copper producer was strongly affected<br />
by strike action during 2007. A four-month strike at the<br />
company’s Cananea mine reduced Grupo Mexico’s annual<br />
production for 2007 by around 10 per cent (Daniel and<br />
Rosenberg, 2007). Nationwide strikes occurred in Peru during<br />
November over labour laws; affecting production at a number<br />
of mines including Antamina, Peru’s largest copper mine<br />
(Montia, 2007).<br />
An abundance of new projects and mine expansions were<br />
planned or commissioned during 2007. Notable expansions<br />
include that at Freeport-McMoran’s Cerro Verde mine in Peru,<br />
which reached design capacity in mid-June and is expected to<br />
produce around 300 000 tonnes of copper annually (Freeport-<br />
McMoRan, 2007). BHP Billiton announced that it would<br />
restart production at its mothballed Pinto Valley copper mine<br />
in Arizona, which will produce around 70 000 tonnes of<br />
copper in concentrate annually (Reuters, 2007). Grupo Mexico<br />
has plans to invest US$4 billion during the next five years in<br />
its Mexican operations, with the aim of doubling copper<br />
production (Mining Journal, 2007). Expansions continued at<br />
operations on the Zambian Copperbelt during 2007, driven by<br />
buoyant copper prices and sustained Chinese investment<br />
interest (Mining Weekly, 2007). BHP Billiton has announced<br />
an increase of 77 per cent by tonnage and 38 per cent by<br />
contained copper in the total resource estimate for its Olympic<br />
Dam mine, in Australia and a US$6 billion expansion is<br />
planned (BHP Billiton, 2007a; Mercer, 2007). Copper refining<br />
capacity increased during 2007, led by China which has<br />
commissioned extensive new capacity in recent years (Penney,<br />
Sep-2007<br />
Oct-2007<br />
Nov-2007<br />
Dec-2007<br />
25