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US$/tonne<br />

10000<br />

9000<br />

8000<br />

7000<br />

6000<br />

5000<br />

4000<br />

Jan-2006<br />

Feb-2006<br />

Mar-2006<br />

Apr-2006<br />

May the London Metal Exchange (LME) spot price reached a<br />

record-high of US$8780 tonne, with an average monthly price<br />

of US$8044 tonne. The deficit in the availability of refined<br />

copper experienced during the previous three years persisted<br />

into 2006. This resulted in tight supply and critically low<br />

exchange levels, amounting to less than three days global<br />

consumption at times. The supply – demand imbalance<br />

ensured prices reacted strongly to market developments<br />

resulting in considerable volatility and price spikes. Higher<br />

metal prices resulted in increased speculative demand for<br />

copper as an investment. Global mine production in 2006 was<br />

lower than expected as a result of production problems and<br />

labour disputes in key copper-producing countries. By the end<br />

of 2006, copper prices had fallen considerably from the record<br />

highs in May of that year. This reflected moderation in<br />

demand largely resulting from consumers drawing on their<br />

own stocks, recovery of global mine output from disruptions<br />

earlier in the year, and growing exchange inventories.<br />

The downward price trend in the second half of 2006<br />

continued into 2007 with prices falling below US$5500 tonne<br />

in early February. This resulted from uncertainty in the US<br />

construction market and a failure of Chinese refined copper<br />

imports to return to expected levels. Prices subsequently began<br />

to rise as LME inventories declined due to increasing Chinese<br />

imports of refined copper. Prices rose strongly during March<br />

and April 2007 in response to increasing Chinese demand.<br />

Prices remained high in the first half of May due to strikes in<br />

Peru and flooding in Argentina, reducing shipments and<br />

lowering inventories. Prices became more volatile in the<br />

second half of May in response to labour disputes, apparently<br />

adequate Chinese inventories and news relating to US interest<br />

rates. Labour conflicts maintained prices during early August,<br />

followed by a considerable downturn in mid-August in<br />

response to financial uncertainty associated with the US<br />

subprime mortgage crisis. Prices recovered as central banks<br />

intervened to help the global financial system and labour<br />

problems in Peru pushed copper to its highest annual price of<br />

US$8300 tonne in October 2007. In mid-October prices began<br />

to fall reaching a low of US$6270 tonne in December as<br />

concerns over the global economic outlook resurfaced, which<br />

led to uncertainty in copper demand from industrialised<br />

May-2006<br />

Copper Price Trend<br />

Copper cash LME daily official price. Source: Metal Bulletin, 2008<br />

Jun-2006<br />

Jul-2006<br />

Aug-2006<br />

Sep-2006<br />

Oct-2006<br />

Nov-2006<br />

Dec-2006<br />

Jan-2007<br />

Feb-2007<br />

Mar-2007<br />

Apr-2007<br />

May-2007<br />

Jun-2007<br />

Jul-2007<br />

Aug-2007<br />

countries. News of declining copper imports into China during<br />

October also influenced the copper price during this period<br />

(Hinde, 2007). Despite this, the average annual price of copper<br />

on the LME was 5.9 per cent higher in 2007 than in 2006, at<br />

US$7100 tonne.<br />

Industry events in 2007<br />

Following on from 2006, strikes and industrial disputes<br />

continued to affect copper production in 2007. In April<br />

production at the Grasberg copper-gold deposit, one of the<br />

world’s largest copper mines, was halted by workers striking<br />

over pay conditions (Mortished, 2007). Grupo Mexico, the<br />

world’s fourth largest copper producer was strongly affected<br />

by strike action during 2007. A four-month strike at the<br />

company’s Cananea mine reduced Grupo Mexico’s annual<br />

production for 2007 by around 10 per cent (Daniel and<br />

Rosenberg, 2007). Nationwide strikes occurred in Peru during<br />

November over labour laws; affecting production at a number<br />

of mines including Antamina, Peru’s largest copper mine<br />

(Montia, 2007).<br />

An abundance of new projects and mine expansions were<br />

planned or commissioned during 2007. Notable expansions<br />

include that at Freeport-McMoran’s Cerro Verde mine in Peru,<br />

which reached design capacity in mid-June and is expected to<br />

produce around 300 000 tonnes of copper annually (Freeport-<br />

McMoRan, 2007). BHP Billiton announced that it would<br />

restart production at its mothballed Pinto Valley copper mine<br />

in Arizona, which will produce around 70 000 tonnes of<br />

copper in concentrate annually (Reuters, 2007). Grupo Mexico<br />

has plans to invest US$4 billion during the next five years in<br />

its Mexican operations, with the aim of doubling copper<br />

production (Mining Journal, 2007). Expansions continued at<br />

operations on the Zambian Copperbelt during 2007, driven by<br />

buoyant copper prices and sustained Chinese investment<br />

interest (Mining Weekly, 2007). BHP Billiton has announced<br />

an increase of 77 per cent by tonnage and 38 per cent by<br />

contained copper in the total resource estimate for its Olympic<br />

Dam mine, in Australia and a US$6 billion expansion is<br />

planned (BHP Billiton, 2007a; Mercer, 2007). Copper refining<br />

capacity increased during 2007, led by China which has<br />

commissioned extensive new capacity in recent years (Penney,<br />

Sep-2007<br />

Oct-2007<br />

Nov-2007<br />

Dec-2007<br />

25

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