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World Mineral Production - NERC Open Research Archive - Natural ...

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Cents per tonne Fe unit f.o.b<br />

90<br />

80<br />

70<br />

60<br />

50<br />

40<br />

30<br />

20<br />

10<br />

0<br />

Jan-1991<br />

Jan-1992<br />

Jan-1993<br />

Source: Metal Bulletin, 2008<br />

Industry events in 2007<br />

This was a very positive year for iron ore production where<br />

growth was almost worldwide. This was coupled with large<br />

price increases, in the last half of the year, as Chinese demand<br />

drove up the share price of almost all major iron ore mining<br />

companies despite problems with the American economy. The<br />

three major iron ore producers Vale (formerly CVRD), Rio<br />

Tinto and BHP Billiton all announced significant production<br />

capacity increases. Vale announced plans to increase capacity<br />

by 50 per cent over the next four years by fast-tracking<br />

expansion plans from 300 million tonnes per year to 450<br />

million tonnes per year by 2011. BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto<br />

have similar plans, investing larger amounts in their Western<br />

Australia operations. Rio Tinto announced two changes to<br />

their production targets this year: the first, in June, was an<br />

increase in production from 220 million tonnes a year to<br />

between 300 and 320 million tonnes a year by 2009; and the<br />

second, in November, a longer term increase to a total of 600<br />

million tonnes a year in the next two decades. This is to be<br />

done mainly by increasing production and opening new mines<br />

in the Pilbara region of Australia where production rates could<br />

reach 420 million tonnes per year. Many dormant operations<br />

are being revived; the year saw the start of iron ore exports<br />

from Australia’s Northern Territory for the first time in 13<br />

years.<br />

Chinese producers began a significant programme of foreign<br />

investments with several of the nation’s top steel mills<br />

forming overseas joint ventures, notably in Australia, USA,<br />

Asia and Africa. One of the largest was an investment in a<br />

northern Cambodian iron ore mine with 200 million tonnes of<br />

reserves. In Australia, Baotou and Shenyang Orient iron and<br />

steel have agreed to buy one million tonnes of ore from the<br />

Wilgerup hematite deposit, South Australia.<br />

In early 2007, the imbalance in supply and demand of iron ore<br />

production was predicted to end by 2009 possibly with iron<br />

ore production outstripping demand. However, now it is<br />

thought that project delays could maintain the current iron ore<br />

boom until 2011.<br />

High demand has resulted in prices on the spot market being<br />

almost twice the value of contract prices, leading to more ore<br />

being sold on the spot market. Rio Tinto has announced plans<br />

Jan-1994<br />

Jan-1995<br />

Jan-1996<br />

Iron Ore Price Trends<br />

Jan-1997<br />

Jan-1998<br />

Jan-1999<br />

Jan-2000<br />

European annual iron ore price Brazil - CVRD Carajas fines<br />

European annual iron ore price Brazil - CVRD Carajas lump<br />

European annual iron ore price Brazil - CVRD Itabira fines<br />

Jan-2001<br />

Jan-2002<br />

Jan-2003<br />

to sell 15 million tonnes of ore on the spot market in 2008,<br />

although contract prices are predicted to rise next year by<br />

between 30 per cent and 50 per cent. Increased shipping cost<br />

from Brazil to China has also led to substantial differences in<br />

the prices of Brazilian ore and Australian ore at Chinese ports.<br />

BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto have attempted to alter the pricing<br />

system as a result but have met with strong resistance from the<br />

Chinese. Vale has ordered four new very large ore carriers to<br />

try to reduce costs.<br />

Consolidation in the iron ore industry grew in 2007, promoted<br />

by price increases and positive forecasts, with the 15 largest<br />

companies controlling almost 60 per cent of production. Vale<br />

took over several smaller Brazilian companies. Brazilian<br />

producer MMX sold stakes in two major projects to<br />

Cleveland-Cliffs (in late 2006) and Anglo American, with<br />

Anglo paying £618 million. Many steel companies tried to buy<br />

into iron ore as a hedge against increasingly high prices,<br />

Arcelor Mittal making the biggest move by buying into the<br />

Wabush mine in Canada. The company aims to be 75 per cent<br />

self-sufficient eventually and has begun to invest heavily in<br />

Africa. Another Indian Steel maker, Jindal Steel, has signed a<br />

£1.05 billion contract to develop the El Mutan deposit in<br />

Bolivia, which is estimated to contain 40 billion tonnes of ore.<br />

BHP Billiton proposed a bid for Rio Tinto, which if<br />

successful, would create the world’s second largest producer.<br />

This would have potentially far-reaching consequences for the<br />

iron ore industry and the proposal met opposition from<br />

European, Chinese and Australia steel manufacturers with<br />

concerns about an iron ore monopoly.<br />

Selected bibliography<br />

Jan-2004<br />

ERICSSON, M. 2007. Increasing iron ore production.<br />

Nordic Steel & mining review 2007, p37-42.<br />

RAW MATERIALS GROUP. July 2007. Iron-ore phenomenon.<br />

Mining Journal, p31-36.<br />

USGS. 2008. <strong>Mineral</strong> commodity summaries and minerals<br />

yearbook [online]. USGS. [cited January 2008] Available<br />

from http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/mcs/<br />

METAL BULLETIN. 2008. MB Prices Non Ferrous [online].<br />

Metal Bulletin. [cited January 2008] Available from<br />

http://www1.metalbulletin.com<br />

Jan-2005<br />

Jan-2006<br />

Jan-2007<br />

43

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