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US$/tonne<br />

60000<br />

50000<br />

40000<br />

30000<br />

20000<br />

10000<br />

0<br />

Jan-2002<br />

Apr-2002<br />

Jul-2002<br />

Oct-2002<br />

price immediately plunged by a further five per cent (Mining<br />

Journal, 8 June 2007).<br />

The news that the South Korean giant POSCO had developed<br />

a no-nickel stainless steel and that other companies were<br />

turning to ferronickel substitute put further downward pressure<br />

on nickel prices (Haycock, 2007b). Nickel prices also pushed<br />

steel makers to increase production of steels with higher<br />

chromium or manganese content, and the amount of standard<br />

grade stainless (8% Ni) fell to around 45 per cent world<br />

production from 50–60 percent in previous years (Mining<br />

Journal, 2007c). The price decline continued into July as some<br />

of the world’s biggest nickel producers, including Brazilian<br />

giant CVRD (now Vale) and Russian major, Norilsk Nickel,<br />

declared record half-year profits (Haycock, 2007c). Prices<br />

continued to decline throughout the second half of the year,<br />

falling to US$25 805 per tonne by 31 December, with rising<br />

stockpiles playing a significant role, and following the trend<br />

seen in other base metals.<br />

By the end of 2007, nickel stocks had risen almost six-fold<br />

since the beginning of the year, with falling prices failing to<br />

curb supply. Analysts suggest that prices are unlikely to<br />

increase given the lagging demand resulting from declining<br />

growth in the US housing market, although China's growth<br />

may compensate for reduced US demand (Seatter, 2008).<br />

Industry events in 2007<br />

The high prices stimulated increased output in the mining<br />

sector, with the major mining companies investing<br />

significantly in nickel metal during 2006, continuing through<br />

2007. Exploration has been progressing with significant<br />

discoveries, and new projects have come on line.<br />

Takeover activity has resulted in significant consolidation<br />

within the industry and the biggest news has been the struggle<br />

for supremacy in the market. Seven companies now account<br />

for 60 per cent of world primary production (Mining Journal<br />

2007d). Last year CVRD (now rebranded as Vale) bought<br />

Inco, Xstrata purchased Falconbridge and Norilsk<br />

incorporated OMG’s nickel interests.<br />

Jan-2003<br />

Apr-2003<br />

Nickel Price Trend<br />

Average Official LME Nickel Daily Cash Price. Source: Metal Bulletin, 2008.<br />

Jul-2003<br />

Oct-2003<br />

Jan-2004<br />

Apr-2004<br />

Jul-2004<br />

Oct-2004<br />

Jan-2005<br />

Apr-2005<br />

Jul-2005<br />

Oct-2005<br />

Jan-2006<br />

Apr-2006<br />

Jul-2006<br />

Oct-2006<br />

Norilsk Nickel strengthened its leading position both in the<br />

Russian and the international mining and metals industry<br />

during 2007. On 1 March Norilsk Nickel acquired the<br />

Harjavalta refinery in Finland and the Cawse operation in<br />

Australia from the OM Group. On 1 July Norilsk Nickel went<br />

on to acquire Tati Nickel in Botswana, Nkomati in South<br />

Africa as well as the Waterloo, Lake Johnston and Black Swan<br />

operations in Australia as part of the acquisition of LionOre<br />

Mining International Ltd (Norilsk, 2008).<br />

Australia remains one of the most significant producers and<br />

Queensland will have its first new nickel mine in more than 16<br />

years when Metallica <strong>Mineral</strong>s starts production at its Lucky<br />

Break joint venture project next year (MiningNews.net, 2007).<br />

China continues to have a major influence on the nickel<br />

market despite its increasing reliance on low-grade laterite ore<br />

for nickel pig-iron production (see below). Chinese mining<br />

companies continue to invest overseas. In Zambia, Albidon<br />

recently signed an Offtake Agreement with China’s largest<br />

nickel producer the Jinchuan Group for the purchase of nickel<br />

concentrates from its Munali project, over the life of the<br />

project (Chadwick and Higgins, 2007). Jinchuan also bought<br />

an 11 per cent stake in Fox Resources Ltd, and signed further<br />

life-of-mine offtake agreements covering all nickel and copper<br />

concentrates produced from Fox’s Sholl B2 nickel project and<br />

its Radio Hill operation in the Pilbara region of Western<br />

Australia (Fox Resources Ltd, 2007). Nevertheless, Chinese<br />

nickel exports are set to drop after the Chinese Government<br />

increased export tax on 1 November 2007 from 1 to 15 per<br />

cent (Metal Bulletin, 2007a).<br />

One of the most significant industry developments over the<br />

past two years (since 2005) has been the emergence of lowgrade<br />

ferronickel, or nickeliferous pig-iron. In response to the<br />

high nickel price of refined nickel, Chinese steel makers have<br />

been importing low grade laterite ore, mainly from the<br />

Philippines (limonitic clay c. 1.1% Ni), but also from<br />

Indonesia, and converting it in steel furnaces to a low-grade<br />

ferronickel product (2–3% Ni) that can be used by at least<br />

some domestic stainless steel producers (Garvey, 2007c). In<br />

April 2007, Baosteel, China’s biggest steel maker confirmed<br />

that it was using nickel pig-iron as a raw material (Metal<br />

Bulletin, 2007b). It also confirmed that it has been testing the<br />

Jan-2007<br />

Apr-2007<br />

Jul-2007<br />

Oct-2007<br />

Jan-2008<br />

65

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