the uncertainty index is given by the following stochastic differential equation: du (t) =[θ u − a u u (t)] dt + σ u p u (t)dWu (t) , 0 ≤ t ≤ T ∗ , (4) where a u , σ u > 0 are positive constants and θ u is a non—negative constant. The dynamics <strong>of</strong> the short rate spread (the short rate spread is supposed to be the defaultable short rate minus the non-defaultable short rate) is given by the following stochastic differential equation: ds (t) =[b s u (t) − a s s (t)] dt + σ s p s (t)dWs (t) , 0 ≤ t ≤ T ∗ , (5) where a s ,b s , σ s > 0 are positive constants. Therefore, the uncertainty index has a great impact on the mean reversion level <strong>of</strong> the short rate spread. Additionally, it is assumed that Cov(dW r (t) ,dW s (t)) = Cov (dW r (t) ,dW u (t)) = Cov (dW s (t) ,dW u (t)) = 0. Although Schmid and Zagst assume uncorrelated standard Brownian motions W r , W s , and W u , the short rate spread s (t) and the uncertainty index u (t) are correlated through the stochastic differential equation for the short rate spread. Note, that the system <strong>of</strong> stochastic differential equations as given by Equations (3) - (5), has a unique strong solution for each given initial value (r 0 ,u 0 ,s 0 ) 0 ∈ R 3 . If we now deÞne a progressively measurable process γ(t) = (γ r (t), γ u (t), γ s (t)) 0 such that γ r (t) = λ r σ r r 1−β t , p γ u (t) = λ u σ u u (t), and p γ s (t) = λ s σ s s (t), 0 ≤ t ≤ T ∗ , for real constants λ r , λ u , λ s , by applying Girsanov’s theorem we can show that cW (t) =W (t)+ Z t 0 γ(l)dl is a standard Brownian motion under the measure Q. Then the Q-dynamics <strong>of</strong> r, s, and u are given by dr (t) = [θ r (t) − â r r (t)] dt + σ r r (t) β dŴ r (t) , (6) p ds (t) = [b s u (t) − â s s (t)] dt + σ s s (t)dŴs (t) , (7) p du (t) = [θ u − â u u (t)] dt + σ u u (t)d Ŵ u (t) , 0 ≤ t ≤ T ∗ , (8) where â i = a i +λ i σ 2 i . Using Equation (1) and Equation (6) we can calculate the price <strong>of</strong> a non-defaultable zero-coupon bond in the Schmid and Zagst model: Theorem 1 (Price <strong>of</strong> a non-defaultable zero-coupon bond) The time t price <strong>of</strong> a non-defaultable zero-coupon bond with maturity T is given by P (t, T )=E Q h e − R T t r(l)dl¯¯¯ Ft i = P (t, T, r(t)), 9
where with ( 1 A(t,T )−B(t,T )r P (t, T, r) =e £ ¤ â B (t, T ) = r 1 − e −â r(T −t) , if β =0, −δr (T −t) 1−e κ (r) 1 −κ(r) 2 e−δr(T −t) 2 , , and, (9) ⎧ R ³ ´ T 1 t 2 ⎪⎨ rB (τ,T) 2 − θ r (τ) B (τ,T) dτ =ln P (0,T ) ∂ ln P (0,t) ln A (t, T ) = P (0,t) − B (t, T ) ∂t ¡ − σ2 r 4â e −â r ⎪⎩ − e ¢ −â rt 2 ¡ e 2â r t − 1 ¢ if β =0, (10) , 3 r − R T t θ r (τ) B (τ,T) dτ, if β = 1 2 , with δ x = p â 2 x +2σ 2 x and κ (x) 1/2 = âx 2 ± 1 2 δ x. (11) Pro<strong>of</strong>. See, e.g., Hull & White (1990). Using Equation (2) and Equations (6) - (8) we can calculate the price <strong>of</strong> a defaultable zero-coupon bond in the Schmid and Zagst model: Theorem 2 (Price <strong>of</strong> a defaultable zero-coupon bond) The price <strong>of</strong> a defaultable zero-coupon bond at time t
- Page 1 and 2: working paper Empirical Evaluation
- Page 3 and 4: using a compound options approach a
- Page 5 and 6: Þrst introduced by Cathcart & El-J
- Page 7 and 8: We assume that there exists a measu
- Page 9: 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 1 Year 3 Years 5 Ye
- Page 13 and 14: a r , b r , σ r , a w , σ w , a u
- Page 15 and 16: with B(t, T ) = 1 ³ −âr(T 1 −
- Page 17 and 18: mean reversion level of 5.21%. Thes
- Page 19 and 20: where P d (t, T, r, w, u) =e Ad (t,
- Page 21 and 22: 6 Comparison of the Model Performan
- Page 23 and 24: Table 10: Average R 2 values (out
- Page 25 and 26: D(0,T)/T*mr% US Industrials A2 US I
- Page 27 and 28: 0,8% 0,7% 0,6% US Industrials BBB1
- Page 29 and 30: Schmid, Zagst 2000 Schmid, Zagst 20
- Page 31 and 32: Hull, J. & White, A. (1990). Pricin
- Page 33 and 34: A DeÞnition of v (t, T ) v (t, T )
- Page 35 and 36: solution: B(t, T ) = e −âr(T −
- Page 37 and 38: D Results of Regression Analyses Ta
- Page 39 and 40: Table 17: Test of out—of-sample e
- Page 41 and 42: Table 21: Test of out—of-sample e
- Page 43 and 44: Table 25: Test of out—of-sample e
- Page 45 and 46: Table 29: Test of out—of-sample e