Field Trial of Optical Fibre Cable-TV System Optical Fibre System for ...
Field Trial of Optical Fibre Cable-TV System Optical Fibre System for ...
Field Trial of Optical Fibre Cable-TV System Optical Fibre System for ...
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206<br />
Relative<br />
occurrence <strong>for</strong> F<br />
Fig. 3<br />
Histogram where the factor F = observed/<br />
predicted failure rate <strong>for</strong> printed board<br />
assemblies<br />
•<br />
52% <strong>of</strong> the printed board assemblies better than<br />
predicted (F1)<br />
i<br />
r<br />
0,2 0,3 0,5 1<br />
normal operating conditions and affects<br />
the transmission function in different<br />
ways.<br />
The failure concept thus excludes the<br />
human factor and any external influences,<br />
such as mechanical and electrical<br />
damage or intermittent interference.<br />
Such factors are almost completely dependent<br />
on user and applications and<br />
are there<strong>for</strong>e beyond the control <strong>of</strong> the<br />
manufacturer.<br />
After a few months <strong>of</strong> operation (burn-in<br />
period) the equipment is in its "constant<br />
failure rate period", and the failure rate<br />
is considered to be constant with time.<br />
All data refer to this period.<br />
Trustworthiness <strong>of</strong> prediction<br />
The trustworthiness <strong>of</strong> the prediction is<br />
mainly dependent on the trustworthiness<br />
<strong>of</strong> the failure rates <strong>of</strong> the components<br />
used. The component failure rates<br />
are stored in a data base which is available<br />
to the whole Ericsson Group. These<br />
failure rates are based on operational<br />
experience and have been obtained by<br />
means <strong>of</strong> long-term follow-up and analysis<br />
<strong>of</strong> repair activities.<br />
Experience with newer components is<br />
insufficient, however, and the amount <strong>of</strong><br />
operational data is limited. In such cases<br />
the new component must be compared<br />
with a similar, older component. If there<br />
is no such component available <strong>for</strong> comparison,<br />
the manufacturer's data are<br />
studied, tested and verified, and laboratory<br />
tests are made.<br />
The use <strong>of</strong> advanced technology with<br />
integrated circuits in modern system designs<br />
increases the reliability <strong>of</strong> the system.<br />
The follow-up <strong>of</strong> the behaviour <strong>of</strong> the<br />
equipment in operation has shown that<br />
there is good agreement between the<br />
predicted and the observed reliability <strong>of</strong><br />
equipment in construction practices M4<br />
and M5. This conclusion is based on<br />
analysis <strong>of</strong> the predicted and the observed<br />
failure rates <strong>for</strong> 138 types <strong>of</strong><br />
printed board assemblies from the 29<br />
most common function blocks.<br />
Fig. 3 shows the result <strong>of</strong> a comparison<br />
<strong>of</strong> 79 different types <strong>of</strong> printed board<br />
assemblies with more than four relevant<br />
failures. It can be seen that 51 % <strong>of</strong> the<br />
observed failure rates lie between "2<br />
times better" and "2 times worse" than<br />
the predicted value.<br />
The function blocks show even better<br />
correlation, fig. 4. As many as 62% <strong>of</strong> the<br />
analyzed function blocks have been better<br />
than predicted, 17% "considerably<br />
better", and no function block has<br />
proved to be "considerably worse" than<br />
predicted 2 .<br />
Table 1 shows a comparison between<br />
the predicted and observed reliability<br />
<strong>for</strong> some <strong>of</strong> the most frequent equipments.<br />
Presentation <strong>of</strong> reliability<br />
data<br />
Reliability parameters<br />
Reliability parameters describe quantitatively<br />
the reliability per<strong>for</strong>mance o<br />
the equipment. The parameters used a<br />
chosen with regard to the object ot