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Field Trial of Optical Fibre Cable-TV System Optical Fibre System for ...

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206<br />

Relative<br />

occurrence <strong>for</strong> F<br />

Fig. 3<br />

Histogram where the factor F = observed/<br />

predicted failure rate <strong>for</strong> printed board<br />

assemblies<br />

•<br />

52% <strong>of</strong> the printed board assemblies better than<br />

predicted (F1)<br />

i<br />

r<br />

0,2 0,3 0,5 1<br />

normal operating conditions and affects<br />

the transmission function in different<br />

ways.<br />

The failure concept thus excludes the<br />

human factor and any external influences,<br />

such as mechanical and electrical<br />

damage or intermittent interference.<br />

Such factors are almost completely dependent<br />

on user and applications and<br />

are there<strong>for</strong>e beyond the control <strong>of</strong> the<br />

manufacturer.<br />

After a few months <strong>of</strong> operation (burn-in<br />

period) the equipment is in its "constant<br />

failure rate period", and the failure rate<br />

is considered to be constant with time.<br />

All data refer to this period.<br />

Trustworthiness <strong>of</strong> prediction<br />

The trustworthiness <strong>of</strong> the prediction is<br />

mainly dependent on the trustworthiness<br />

<strong>of</strong> the failure rates <strong>of</strong> the components<br />

used. The component failure rates<br />

are stored in a data base which is available<br />

to the whole Ericsson Group. These<br />

failure rates are based on operational<br />

experience and have been obtained by<br />

means <strong>of</strong> long-term follow-up and analysis<br />

<strong>of</strong> repair activities.<br />

Experience with newer components is<br />

insufficient, however, and the amount <strong>of</strong><br />

operational data is limited. In such cases<br />

the new component must be compared<br />

with a similar, older component. If there<br />

is no such component available <strong>for</strong> comparison,<br />

the manufacturer's data are<br />

studied, tested and verified, and laboratory<br />

tests are made.<br />

The use <strong>of</strong> advanced technology with<br />

integrated circuits in modern system designs<br />

increases the reliability <strong>of</strong> the system.<br />

The follow-up <strong>of</strong> the behaviour <strong>of</strong> the<br />

equipment in operation has shown that<br />

there is good agreement between the<br />

predicted and the observed reliability <strong>of</strong><br />

equipment in construction practices M4<br />

and M5. This conclusion is based on<br />

analysis <strong>of</strong> the predicted and the observed<br />

failure rates <strong>for</strong> 138 types <strong>of</strong><br />

printed board assemblies from the 29<br />

most common function blocks.<br />

Fig. 3 shows the result <strong>of</strong> a comparison<br />

<strong>of</strong> 79 different types <strong>of</strong> printed board<br />

assemblies with more than four relevant<br />

failures. It can be seen that 51 % <strong>of</strong> the<br />

observed failure rates lie between "2<br />

times better" and "2 times worse" than<br />

the predicted value.<br />

The function blocks show even better<br />

correlation, fig. 4. As many as 62% <strong>of</strong> the<br />

analyzed function blocks have been better<br />

than predicted, 17% "considerably<br />

better", and no function block has<br />

proved to be "considerably worse" than<br />

predicted 2 .<br />

Table 1 shows a comparison between<br />

the predicted and observed reliability<br />

<strong>for</strong> some <strong>of</strong> the most frequent equipments.<br />

Presentation <strong>of</strong> reliability<br />

data<br />

Reliability parameters<br />

Reliability parameters describe quantitatively<br />

the reliability per<strong>for</strong>mance o<br />

the equipment. The parameters used a<br />

chosen with regard to the object ot

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