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Vision 2020 - Transportation Research Group of India

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Government <strong>of</strong> <strong>India</strong><br />

Ministry <strong>of</strong> Railways<br />

(Railway Board)<br />

CHAPTER-IV<br />

Potential for Growth<br />

Prospects for GDP growth and transport elasticity <strong>of</strong> more than unity indicate that IR has an opportunity to plan for<br />

and aim at high growth. A disaggregated and bottom-up analysis <strong>of</strong> the freight, passenger and parcel<br />

businesses, as shown below, also broadly corroborates the conclusion.<br />

4.1 Freight Business<br />

The freight basket <strong>of</strong> <strong>India</strong>n Railways is dominated by nine major commodity groups, namely coal, iron and steel,<br />

iron ore ( both for export and domestic steel plants), other raw materials for steel plants cement, food grain,<br />

fertilizer, petroleum products and container traffic (See Table-7 below).<br />

Table-7:<br />

Table-7: Composition <strong>of</strong> freight traffic in 2008-09<br />

Commodity Tonnage (Million) Percentage NTKM (Billion) Percentage<br />

Coal 369 44.3 21.4 39.7<br />

Iron ore 131 15.7 51.0 9.5<br />

Pig Iron & Steel 27 3.3 25.3 4.7<br />

Cement 86 10.3 47.3 8.8<br />

Fertilizer 41 5.0 35.0 6.5<br />

Mineral Oil (POL) 39 4.7 24.9 4.6<br />

Food grains 34 4.1 44.5 8.3<br />

Container traffic 29 3.5 36.0 6.8<br />

Others 77 9.1 60.6 11.1<br />

Total 833 100.0 538.2 100<br />

Future Prospects<br />

4.1.1 Coal<br />

16<br />

Presently, coal accounts for close to 45% <strong>of</strong> the total loading <strong>of</strong> <strong>India</strong>n Railways. In the year 2008-09, IR carried<br />

369.4 million tonnes <strong>of</strong> coal, 71% <strong>of</strong> the quantity being for thermal power stations, 11% for steel plants and the<br />

rest for other industries and public use. It has been projected in Ministry <strong>of</strong> Coal's <strong>Vision</strong> 2025 document that the<br />

country's coal production is set to increase to almost 1060 million tones by 2025 from the present level <strong>of</strong> 470<br />

million tonnes. Most <strong>of</strong> the growth would come from Eastern Coalfield Limited (ECL), Northern Coalfield Limited<br />

(NCL), Central Coalfield Limited (North Karanpura), Southeastern Coalfield Limited (Korba) and Mahanadi<br />

Coalfield (Ib Valley and Talcher). Central Electricity Authority (CEA)'s projections show that by the end <strong>of</strong> the XII<br />

plan demand <strong>of</strong> coal for coalbased power plants would be around 770 MT, <strong>of</strong> which around 60 MT would be

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