Vision 2020 - Transportation Research Group of India

Government of India
Ministry of Railways
(Railway Board)
imported. Extrapolation of the anticipated trend to 2020 shows that demand would rise to around 880 MT. Some
of the newer plants located near pitheads or ports would use non-rail alternatives such as conveyer belts or
merry-go-round systems. However, for most of the rest, coal will move over longer distances as the sources of
coal would be increasingly limited to South-eastern Coalfield and Mahanadi Coalfields (ECL and NCL being
primarily dedicated to pithead plants) and imports at various ports. Steel and cement industries and other bulk
users of coal are also set to expand on a big scale.
It is estimated that coal traffic would increase to 700 MT by the year 2019-2020. Movement of quantities on this
scale would call for capacity augmentation on the new routes through which the traffic would traverse and
innovations in operations and rolling-stock to bring down terminal detentions, transit times and unit cost of
operation. Last-mile connectivity to new blocks, especially captive mining blocks which would account for more
than 200 MT of coal by the year 2020 and terminal handling infrastructure at various coal importing ports will also
be crucial.
4.1.2 Iron & Steel
During the year 2008-09, IR carried 27 MT of finished steel and pig iron. Sustained growth in GDP and the
investment in infrastructure would increase the steel intensity of the economy. This would ensure that demand for
steel would rise. Major capacity additions will take place in the states of Orissa, Jharkhand, Chhatisgarh and
West Bengal. Ministry of Steel has projected that capacity of steel production in the country would reach the level
of 124 MT by the year 2011-12, up from the present level of around 55 MT. Judging by the MOUs worth 276 MT
signed with various states, it is expected that the country would have a production capacity of around 180 MT of
steel by the year 2020. Presently, around 50% of the domestically produced steel moves by rail. The share can be
improved to 60% with appropriate marketing and technological interventions. It would, therefore, be possible to
attract 108 MT of steel to rail by the year 2020. Given that each million tonne of steel gives rise to the movement
1.8 MT of iron ore, iron ore loading would also rise pro rata. A part of the steel industry will be serviced by maritime
transport or slurry pipe lines. Even on a conservative assessment, 150 MT of iron ore traffic can be expected.
4.1.3 Iron-ore for export
Iron ore for export had stagnated at between 10 and 15 MT during the period 1975 to 2001, but witnessed an
explosive phase of growth in the recent years following a spurt in demand from China, reaching 52 MT in 2007-
08. The traffic is vulnerable to demand fluctuations in export market and changes in the export policy. However,
for a long time in the foreseeable future, the country will have considerable exportable surplus of iron-ore fines. It
is, therefore, expected that iron ore for export may grow, albeit slowly and unevenly. It is expected to stabilize at
around 75 MT by the year 2020.
4.1.4 Food-grain
Food-grain movement is typically difficult to predict. As the locus of agricultural growth shifts gradually away from
the Punjab and Haryana region towards the eastern and the southern parts of the country, transportation
requirement of food-grain may grow slowly. On the other hand, international trade in food-grains is likely to gain in
importance. The pattern of movement would be uncertain. The implications for railways are, therefore, difficult to
assess. On balance, given the growth in population, the imperatives to iron out inter-regional imbalances from
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