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Brown Cover OP 43 - The Watson Institute for International Studies

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helping practitioners and policymakers gain perspective on this<br />

extremely complex and nettlesome issue. As is customary in the<br />

Humanitarianism and War Project, the analysis is inductive,<br />

drawing on the experiences of individual case studies to reach<br />

broader conclusions and recommendations.<br />

<strong>The</strong> Structure of the Conflict Connection<br />

<strong>International</strong> assistance can affect processes of conflict be<strong>for</strong>e,<br />

during, and after war takes place. In the pre-conflict phase,<br />

external assistance may contribute to the slide of conflict-prone<br />

societies toward war, or it may be neutral vis-à-vis incipient<br />

conflict. <strong>International</strong> assistance also may reflect the desire to<br />

“help prevent conflicts at their roots—be<strong>for</strong>e the toll of human<br />

and material destruction spirals and be<strong>for</strong>e an international<br />

response becomes vastly more difficult and costly.” 25<br />

Recent analysis of pre-conflict situations has placed considerable<br />

emphasis on the conflict-inducing effects of insensitive<br />

development assistance. One observer stated:<br />

In some cases, if not many, inappropriate aid conditionality<br />

may have <strong>for</strong>ced an unsustainable pace of change<br />

or weakened states to the point where basic social<br />

services and the rule of law could no longer be maintained.<br />

26<br />

Examples abound. Large-scale external funding of water<br />

projects in Bangladesh exacerbated relations between the government<br />

and hill tribes displaced from ancestral lands by the<br />

filling of reservoirs, contributing to the outbreak of a serious<br />

insurgency. 27 In pre-conflict Rwanda, pressures from donors <strong>for</strong><br />

democratization and structural adjustment may have given the<br />

Hutu political and economic élite an incentive to provoke ethnic<br />

conflict with the Tutsi minority. 28 Failure to implement human<br />

rights conditionalities on development assistance may have sent<br />

a message that conditionalities were “preached but not practiced,”<br />

contributing to Rwanda’s atmosphere of impunity. 29<br />

In the second stage—that of active conflict—humanitarian<br />

action may exacerbate or mitigate violence or it may have no<br />

significant effect. Generous international assistance to the disxv

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