Brown Cover OP 43 - The Watson Institute for International Studies

deep resentments between communities this has potential to
spark spontaneous renewal of conflict. The tensions provide
people whose interests may be threatened by normalization with
the opportunity to undermine these processes.
The experience of post-Dayton Bosnia in 1995 and 1996, in
which North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces saw
their role as one of deterrence and the UN International Police
Task Force (IPTF) was understaffed, suggests that unless credible
guarantees of protection are provided, return will be slow and
subject to reversal. Likewise, the abortive effort to return ethnic
Georgians to Abkhazia in the context of the 1994 agreement on
repatriation foundered partly because of the unwillingness of
Georgians to return to areas where policing would be handled by
Abkhaz authorities. Violence that occurs because of deficient
protection often slows return even further. As a result, the process
of normalization is delayed and divisions within society are not
healed. New incidents create new grievances, enhancing the
possibility of renewal of conflict.
Conclusion
The conflict connection poses uncomfortable dilemmas for
humanitarians. They recognize an ethical obligation to help
those in need, yet the possibility that their work prolongs conflict
raises the prospect that they may produce still greater suffering.
In all of the ways discussed above, humanitarian action may
have the effect of fueling conflict. Yet that effect seems generally
to be at the margins. The recent historical record suggests that
humanitarian action may be an exacerbating factor, but it is
rarely the fundamental cause of prolongation of war. The course
of conflict has far more to do with the objectives and calculations
of cost and benefit by the parties. In most instances, the humanitarian
factor has only a marginal effect on the calculations of the
parties with regard to fighting or settling. The modalities of
ending civil wars are extremely complex, as are the motivations
of the parties. Conflicts are prolonged for many reasons other
than the desire to continue delivery of humanitarian assistance.
[C]ivil wars by their very nature involve a relatively
small space for compromise among the belligerent par-
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