Brown Cover OP 43 - The Watson Institute for International Studies

a party to a civil war followed by disastrous humanitarian
consequences.
Provision of humanitarian assistance to Abkhazia (Georgia)
probably enhanced that society’s capacity to survive in the
face of a blockade. Assistance perhaps prolonged the conflict
between the Abkhaz insurgents and the government of Georgia.
Yet the sudden collapse of the Abkhaz military position and
consequent haphazard return of Georgians to the homes from
which they were driven might have resulted in a bloodbath.
Indeed, “decisive military victory by one side in an identity civil
war … increases the likelihood of genocide.” 4 Protracting
conflicts because of humanitarian action might not be such a bad
thing. Doing no harm relies on a capacity to identify the harm
being done. That is not an easy task.
The impacts of humanitarian action on conflict may occur
during the phase of active hostilities or after violent conflict has
been concluded by victory, a cease-fire, or a broader political
compromise. Moreover, these phases of conflict may overlap.
One region of a country may be in active conflict, while in another
the conflict may be over. Thus, the phases are not rigorously
separated out in the thematic account of the conflict connection
that follows.
This chapter examines the extent to which humanitarian
assistance and protection feed the conflicts to which they respond.
Humanitarian Assistance and
the Political Economy of War
The core of the logic of aid fueling conflict concerns the effect
of humanitarian action on the political economy of war, a topic
that has been examined closely in recent years by analysts and
pondered by practitioners. There is a tendency to assume that
going to war constitutes a suspension or abandonment of
rational economic behavior. But although wars damage or
destroy economies, they also create them. 5
War may serve concrete economic functions for particular
groups. 6 Transport contractors benefit substantially from the
business created by humanitarian agencies. Criminal groups
take advantage of the lack of state control to produce and
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