Powering the Future Summary Report - Parsons Brinckerhoff

Powering the Future Summary Report
Powering the Future Summary Report
Table 6 shows the scenarios considered in this
report together with the effect of the scenario on CO 2
emissions and electricity production in 2050.
The behaviour of each sector is modelled, with a base
case modified by CO 2 emission reduction options.
The sector behaviour in terms of fuel and electricity
consumption and CO 2 emissions is calculated
according to the CO 2 emission reduction options
applicable in each scenario. The comparison of
the measures in each sector review showed their
individual impacts. In the analysis of each scenario,
the interaction between the various measures is fully
modelled. In this way, the effect that one measure has
in reducing part of the sector energy consumption is
properly reflected in the savings calculated for further
measures affecting the same energy consumption. For
example, improved thermal insulation in a commercial
building will reduce the benefit of also applying a more
efficient heating system.
For each scenario, electricity sector CO 2 emissions
are calculated from the utilisation of the various power
plant types and aggregated with the emissions of the
consuming sectors to derive an overall CO 2 emission
for the UK economy. The resulting curves of declining
CO 2 emissions are typified by the reference scenario
shown in figure 14.
A similar aggregation of fuel consumptions by the five
sectors allows the UK energy consumption profile to be
derived for each scenario as shown in figure 15.
Figure 14 Overall CO 2 emissions trend for UK by sector for reference scenario
Figure 15 Overall fuel consumption trends for UK for reference scenario
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