Powering the Future Summary Report - Parsons Brinckerhoff

Powering the Future Summary Report
Powering the Future Summary Report
Approach
Objectives
The main objectives of Powering the Future are to:
• provide a coherent response to the UK government
on the implications of the climate change
commitments across the economy
• assess the types and scale of change required in
each sector to meet the commitments
• compare the impact of alternative strategies for
emissions reduction, to identify which are critical to
achieving compliance
• identify the implications of adopting alternative
strategies, with regard to UK dependence on critical
technologies or fuels
Scope
The intent of Powering the Future is to assess the
impact of adopting different sets of technologies and
measures to achieve the targeted CO 2 reductions
across the whole of the UK economy, so that further
work can be directed towards delivering results
consistently across all sectors.
Powering the Future addresses the major emitting
sectors to assess the potential CO 2 reduction
measures. However it neither examines in detail the
implications of the alternative strategies on energy
security, nor attempts to compare costs. Costs have
already been covered in publications such as the Stern
Review 2 and McKinsey 3 . In 2006, Parsons Brinckerhoff
published a report entitled Powering the Nation which
provided detailed costs for alternative power generation
technologies. This report will be updated and reissued
in early 2010 to take account of the significant changes
in the costs of fuels and plant since 2006.
Basic assumptions
Powering the Future makes the following assumptions:
• the 2050 commitment is the appropriate target for
CO 2 reduction
• the effects of climate change on heating or cooling
demand will be limited
• there will be no radical changes in lifestyle, ie most
people will live in houses and will travel to work
outside the home; families will have an average
of two children; life expectancies will not change
significantly
• economic growth will average 1.5% over the period
• the limitations of the electricity transmission and
distribution networks do not restrict the outcomes of
particular scenarios
Readers should also note that the options considered
only use technologies that are either currently
established or are close to large-scale application.
Methodology
Powering the Future divides the UK economy into five
sectors:
• transport
• domestic
• industry
• commercial
• electricity
It analyses these sectors for potential responses to
the CO 2 emissions reduction target. Drawing upon
government published statistics, it reviews the current
energy consumption and CO 2 emissions of each
sector and prepares a forecast to 2050. The resulting
information is incorporated into a sector model that
allows each improvement option to be analysed and
evaluated. These options fall into four general types:
• demand reduction
• efficiency improvement
• substitution of alternative fuels or energy source
• capture and storage of CO 2 emissions
Each type of solution can contribute to a reduction in
CO 2 emissions. The first three types can be applied to
every sector, while CCS is more appropriate for large
fixed-point sources of CO 2 emissions such as a steel
works or power plant.
Following the analyses of each sector, a scenario
analysis applies a consistent set of measures across
the sectors (for example improved insulation of
buildings or the application of renewable heat) to
evaluate the overall impact on the UK. This analysis
allows the alternative strategies to be compared and
critical measures to be identified.
The next section describes energy consumption for
each sector of the UK economy. Potential measures
are then considered for each sector. ‘Scenario analysis’
describes our approach of using scenarios to assess
groups of measures and their impact on CO 2 emissions.
The final section of this report, ‘scenario comparison’,
presents the results of the scenario analysis.
2
Stern N, ‘The Economics of Climate Change’ 2006.
3
McKinsey & Company, ‘Pathways to a Low-Carbon Economy, version 2 of the Global Greenhouse Gas Abatement Cost Curve’ 2009.
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