Powering the Future Summary Report - Parsons Brinckerhoff

Powering the Future Summary Report
Powering the Future Summary Report
Scenario 2 – reduced renewable heat
This scenario assumes reduced application of
renewable heat technologies – biomass and solar
heating. The consequence of this is an increase of
16 MtCO 2 /yr in CO 2 emissions from the combustion of
additional fossil fuel.
Scenario 4 – no new nuclear programme
With no new nuclear power plant, the electricity
sector would substitute additional coal CCS and gasfuelled
CCGT plant to replace the nuclear capacity.
Despite the increased use of carbon capture, the
scenario exceeds the 80% CO 2 emissions reduction
commitment by 12 MtCO 2 /yr as a result of an increase
in coal consumption of over 60%.
Scenario 5 – no CCS
This scenario assumes that the electricity no longer
available from carbon capture coal plant is met by
increasing nuclear and gas-fired CCGT capacity. The
scenario analysis shows that without CCS the CO 2
emissions from the industry sector and electricity
sector in 2050 exceed the commitment level by
27 MtCO 2 /yr, ie by more than 24%.
Scenario 7 – economic growth rate
The increased economic activity pushes the CO 2
emissions above the 2050 commitment level,
increasing them by nearly 20% above those of the
reference scenario, with coal consumption increased
by 70% and oil by 30%.
Scenario 8 – building insulation
The omission of 50% of the improvement in building
insulation included in the reference case results in
significantly increased fuel and electricity consumption
and CO 2 emissions. Despite the measures adopted,
the scenario exceeds the CO 2 emission reduction
commitment level by 12%.
Scenario 9 – battery power adoption by cars
and vans
This scenario assumes a reduced adoption of electric
vehicles, the effect of which is to reduce by 28% the
amount of fossil fuel displaced by electricity in the
transport sector. Despite the small reduction in CO 2
emissions from the electricity sector, the increase in
transport emissions causes the overall CO 2 emissions in
2050 to exceed the commitment level by 39 MtCO 2 /yr
or 35%. The additional fossil fuel consumption in
the transport sector radically alters the profile of fuel
consumption for this scenario in 2050, so that while
coal and gas consumption falls, oil consumption
doubles. Fuel dependence is increased, with oil
representing 30% of primary energy consumption.
Scenario 12 – unspecified industrial
efficiency improvements
In this scenario the 50% improvement in industrial
process energy efficiency by 2050 assumed in the
reference scenario is excluded. CO 2 emissions are
increased by 50 MtCO 2 /yr, exceeding the commitment
level by 42%. The fuel consumption profile is
significantly affected: coal consumption increases by
105%, oil by 50% and gas by 30%. Fuel dependence
rises, with coal increasing to over one third of primary
energy supply.
Review of effectiveness of measures
The scenarios test the effect of selected changes in the
penetration of particular measures on CO 2 emissions
and fuel consumption patterns. Since the changes in
penetration of the measures are not the same, a further
stage of analysis is applied to normalise the results.
This allows a proper comparison of the value of the
measures tested in the scenario analysis in reducing
CO 2 emissions. The results of this analysis for 2050 are
shown graphically in figure 18.
This analysis highlights those individual measures
which are critical to delivering the desired emission
reductions. Since the reference case applies CO 2
emission reduction measures at the maximum credible
level in each sector, the omission of one large-value
measure cannot be compensated in any other sector,
causing a major breach of the 2050 CO 2 emission
commitment. One feature of this analysis is that
alternative low-carbon measures in the electricity sector
appear to have low value, which belies their collective
importance.
Figure 17 Scenario fuel consumptions in 2050
Figure 18 Value of measures to 2050 CO 2 emission reductions
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