Powering the Future Summary Report - Parsons Brinckerhoff

Powering the Future Summary Report
Powering the Future Summary Report
Findings
1. The scale and urgency of the challenge.
Achieving the 80% reduction in CO 2 emissions
mandated by the Climate Change Act 2008 is
feasible but extraordinarily challenging. It will
require urgent and large-scale effort in every sector
of the UK, and a delay in any sector will jeopardise
the commitment.
2. Leadership. The scale and rate of change
required across all sectors to achieve the desired
reductions in CO 2 emissions are such that market
mechanisms will require strong leadership from
government to be effective.
3. UK generation capacity trends. UK electricity
generating capacity is forecast to fall to half of its
current value by 2023, but it is unlikely that there
will be a significant reduction in demand (see
figure 1). In order to maintain adequate capacity
from 2020 onwards, new plant would have to be
built at a rate that is at least equal to the highest
historical rate achieved by the UK – this at a time
when the capacity of the indigenous UK power
plant industry is greatly reduced.
4. Sector coordination. Analysing the alternative
solutions shows there are strong interactions
between sectors and measures. All sectors must
therefore be addressed in a coordinated way to
avoid wasted investments and failed commitments.
5. Sequence of interventions. There is a risk that
decisions and actions taken now to meet the EU
2020 renewables target will have undesired and
adverse impacts on the UK’s ability to meet the
2050 carbon targets. For example, the early and
widespread adoption of wind power could severely
undermine the viability of other low-carbon
technologies, making it more difficult to meet
carbon targets and longer-term commitments.
6. Maintaining industrial competitiveness.
Funding the requirements for substantial
reductions in CO 2 emissions and improvements
in energy efficiency necessary from UK industry
– without undermining its competitiveness – will
require significant interventions at both the UK and
European levels.
7. Primary reduction measures. Comparing the
main CO 2 reduction options shown in figure 2
indicates that the following measures are essential:
• rapid and large-scale switch of cars and light
goods vehicles to electric battery power
• radical improvement in industrial energy efficiency
• large-scale application of renewable heat using
solar energy and making maximum use of
available biomass
• intensive and substantial improvement in the
insulation of new and existing homes and
buildings
• development and application of carbon capture
and storage (CCS) for large emitters in the
industry sector, in addition to its application for
coal-burning power plant
8. Secondary reduction measures. Wind power,
nuclear power and solar photovoltaic (PV) are
collectively essential to the decarbonisation of
electricity production, reducing CO 2 emissions by
over 100 MtCO 2 /yr from current levels. However,
as electricity will be largely decarbonised by 2050,
the value of any individual low-carbon power
generating measure will be low, as shown in
figure 2. The choice between these alternatives
must therefore be made on operational, economic
and energy security grounds.
9. Avoiding technology dependence. Choices
between alternative measures can result in
excessive dependence on key technologies. For
example, the omission of a nuclear programme
would result in heavy dependence on CCS
technology, which is currently unproven at the
scale required for a major power plant.
10. Avoiding fuel dependence. Fuel diversity issues
can be managed if a holistic view of UK energy use
is taken. The reference scenario (the base case
for evaluation of alternative options) achieves a
good diversity of fuels by substituting electricity for
oil in the transport sector and by having a flexible
electricity generation mix.
11. Quick wins. Because of the scale of the
measures, improved building insulation, improved
industry energy efficiency and greater use of
electric vehicles all offer valuable reductions in
carbon emissions by 2020. Early action is needed
to deliver these reductions.
Figure 1 UK forward capacity gap
Figure 2 Value of measures to 2050 CO 2 emission reductions
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