Electric Power Outlook - Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission

The current aggregate five-year projection of growth in energy demand is 0.9 percent. This
includes a residential growth rate of 0.4 percent, a commercial rate of 1.2 percent and an industrial
rate of 1.4 percent. See Figure 9, which depicts growth in total aggregate retail energy demand, in
GWh.
Figure 9 Pennsylvania aggregate energy demand (GWh)
152,500
Historic
150,000
147,500
145,000
142,500
140,000
137,500
135,000
132,500
130,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Between 1940 and 1970, residential demand rose at a nominal levelized (average) rate of 6.6
percent per year, while the cost of electricity decreased at an annual average rate of 2.0 percent. 48
Between 1970 and 2010, residential demand and cost increased at annual rates of 1.4 percent and
4.1 percent, respectively. Figure 10 compares the changes in residential cost and usage from 1940
to 2010.
Over the past 15 years, the average aggregate non-coincident peak load for the major EDCs
increased 1.0 percent per year. The combined forecast of the EDCs’ peak load shows the load
increasing from 29,515 MW in 2010 to 30,250 MW in 2015 at an average annual growth rate of
0.5 percent. Actual peak loads are weather adjusted to reflect normal weather conditions prior to
applying forecasting methodologies. Thus, the projected growth rates reflect the year-to-year
fluctuations in energy sales and peak load. Projections of energy demand and peak load reflect
EDC compliance with the requirements of Act 129 relating to energy efficiency and demand
response options available for each customer class. See Figure 11.
48 Total Residential Account 440, FERC Form 1.
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Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission