Electric Power Outlook - Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission

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The MISO net internal peak demand for summer 2010 was 104,288 MW, assuming a 4.55 percent diversity level. 66 For summer 2019, the net internal demand is projected to be 115,769 MW, or an equivalent compound growth rate of 1.2 percent. The MISO market had 131,235 MW of net capacity resources for the 2010 summer. 67 The MISO reserve margin for existing capacity resources is 22,354 MW for 2011, which is 23.8 percent, based on net internal demand. Total resources are expected to grow to 124,828 MW in 2019, resulting in a projected reserve margin of 16.1 percent, still above the reserve margin target. Uncertain resources are not included when determining the reserve margin. Uncertain resources are the existing generation that represents wind/variable resource deratings, generating capacity that has not been studied for delivery within the RTOs, and capacity located within the region that is not part of PJM or MISO committed capacity. Conceptual capacity represents less certain future capacity additions and only a portion of the capacity is included when determining the expected reserve margins. Over the next seven years, there are plans within the RFC region for the addition of more than 1,830 miles of high-voltage transmission lines (100 kV and above), and numerous new substations and transformers expected to enhance and strengthen the bulk transmission system. PJM’s RTEP has identified four major “backbone” projects, two of which were mentioned earlier. The Trans-Allegheny Interstate Line (TrAIL) consists of a new 500-kV circuit from 502 Junction to Mount Storm to Meadow Brook to Loudon. This project will relieve anticipated overloads and voltage problems in the Washington, D.C. area, including anticipated overloads expected in 2011 on the existing 500-kV network. Crews have erected all 661 structures and strung all the wire that make up the TrAIL project – the first backbone upgrade to the Mid-Atlantic regional transmission grid built in decades. TrAIL is now energized and has met the June 2011 in-service deadline. The planned 130-mile, 500-kV circuit from Susquehanna to Lackawanna to Roseland will tie into the existing 500-kV network and, with the addition of 500/230-kV transformers, will create a strong link from generation sources in Northeastern and North Central Pennsylvania into New Jersey. These facilities are expected to be in service by June 2012, which is unlikely due to the ongoing review of the National Park Service. The Potomac-Appalachian Transmission Highline (PATH) transmission line consists of a 244-mile Amos to Bedington 765-kV line and a 92-mile, twin circuit 500-kV line from Bedington to Kemptown. This project will reduce the west-to-east power flow on the existing PJM 500-kV transmission paths and provide significant benefits to the constrained area of Washington and Baltimore. The Maryland Public Service Commission rejected the application of Allegheny affiliate, Potomac Edison Co., for a 20-mile segment of the line, and a new application has been filed. Also, the Virginia State Corporation Commission granted a motion of PATH Allegheny Virginia Transmission Corp. to withdraw its application for a 31-mile segment. The facilities were originally expected to be in service in 2012. Based on the findings of the latest analyses, projected 66 Midwest ISO, 2011 Summer Resource Assessment. 67 Midwest ISO, 2010 Long Term Resource Assessment. Electric Power Outlook for Pennsylvania 2010-15 53
eliability violations have moved several years into the future, and PJM is directing that further development of the PATH project be suspended while PJM conducts a more rigorous analysis of the potential need for PATH. The fourth “backbone” project is the Mid-Atlantic Power Pathway (MAPP), consisting of a new 190-mile 500-kV line beginning at Possum Point, Virginia, and terminating at Salem, New Jersey. PJM has confirmed the need for the MAPP project by June 1, 2015. The transmission system is expected to perform well over a wide range of operating conditions, provided new facilities go into service as scheduled, and transmission operators take appropriate action, as needed, to control power flows, reactive reserves, and voltages. Pennsylvania The Pennsylvania electric power outlook generally reflects the projections of RFC, which are based on projections of the PJM RTO and the Midwest ISO. Since transmission and generation are not regulated by this Commission, and since the bulk electric system is planned on a regional rather than a state basis, we must look to regional entities for data concerning the current and future condition of the bulk electric system. While we can determine the aggregate load for the state’s consumers, we do not know, with complete certainty, what generating facilities will be available to serve these consumers. Planning the enhancement and expansion of transmission capability on a regional basis is one of the primary functions of regional transmission organizations. PJM implements this function pursuant to the Regional Transmission Expansion Planning Protocol set forth in Schedule 6 of the PJM Operating Agreement. A key part of this regional planning protocol is the evaluation of both generation interconnection and merchant transmission interconnection requests, the procedures for which are codified under Part IV of the PJM Open Access Transmission Tariff. Although transmission planning is performed on a regional basis, most transmission additions and upgrades in Pennsylvania are planned to support the local delivery system and new generating facilities. PJM’s service area in the state is shown in Figure 35, including Penn Power. 68 68 PJM, 2010 Regional Transmission Expansion Plan, Feb. 28, 2011, p. 385. 54 Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission
Page 1 and 2:
ElectricPowerOutlook forPennsylvani
Page 4 and 5:
E xecutive Summar y Introduction Se
Page 6 and 7:
Contents Section 1 - Introduction P
Page 8 and 9:
Section 1 - Introduction Purpose El
Page 10 and 11: NERC defines the bulk electric syst
Page 12 and 13: ReliabilityFirst Corporation The re
Page 14 and 15: PJM manages a sophisticated regiona
Page 16 and 17: Figure 5 Mid-Atlantic Area National
Page 18 and 19: The 2010 RTEP states that TrAIL pro
Page 20 and 21: Three public meetings were held in
Page 22 and 23: eliable service at the least cost t
Page 24 and 25: On June 3, 2010, the Commission app
Page 26 and 27: approval. The EDCs filed their Smar
Page 28 and 29: Section 2 - Historic and Forecast D
Page 30 and 31: Figure 10 Average residential cost
Page 32 and 33: Duquesne has 121.6 miles of transmi
Page 34 and 35: Figure 14 FirstEnergy service terri
Page 36 and 37: Figure 15 Metropolitan Edison Compa
Page 38 and 39: Penelec’s Energy Efficiency and C
Page 40 and 41: its summer peak load increasing fro
Page 42 and 43: PPL Electric Utilities Corporation
Page 44 and 45: Figure 22 PPL Electric Utilities Co
Page 46 and 47: Figure 23 PECO Energy Company energ
Page 48 and 49: West Penn is a member of PJM and RF
Page 50 and 51: Figure 27 UGI Utilities Inc. energy
Page 52 and 53: Figure 29 Citizens' Electric Compan
Page 54 and 55: Wellsboro Electric Company Wellsbor
Page 56 and 57: the past two years, both peak deman
Page 58 and 59: Figure 32 RFC 2010-2019 reserve mar
Page 62 and 63: Figure 35 PJM service area in Penns
Page 64 and 65: Figure 37 Existing generating capac
Page 66 and 67: Appendix A - Data Tables The follow
Page 68 and 69: Table A05 Metropolitan Edison Compa
Page 70 and 71: Table A13 Pennsylvania Power Compan
Page 72 and 73: Table A21 PECO Energy Company Table
Page 74 and 75: Appendix B - Plant Additions and Up
Page 76 and 77: Status of Pennsylvania's Plant Addi
Page 78 and 79: Location of queued generation inter
Page 80 and 81: Pennsylvania's Existing Electric Ge
Page 82 and 83: Pennsylvania's Existing Electric Ge
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Electric Power Outlook - Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission

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